Plus/Minus for the horror show at Minnesota

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	Minutes	NU pts	MIN pts	Team +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Pete Nance	31	48	59	-11	+1.5	-9.5
Robbie Beran	22	40	39	+1	+2.0	+3
Boo Buie	30	48	61	-13	+1.7	-11.3
Chase Audige	25	42	47	-5	-7.7	-12.7
Ryan Young	12	11	26	-15	+0.7	-14.3
Julian Roper	23	33	48	-15	-2.1	-17.1
Ty Berry	14	15	32	-17	+3.9	-13.1
Casey Simmons	17	26	31	-5	+4.5	-0.5
Brooks Barnhizer	7	14	11	+3	-0.8	+2.2
Ryan Greer	13	16	19	-3	-1.7	-4.7
Elyjah Williams	2	0	8	-8	-2.8	-10.8
Matt Nicholson	3	7	4	+3	+0.9	+3.9

Our worst effort of the season.
Gotta give credit to Robbie Beran who played a decent game. Same goes for Casey Simmons.
In the last two games, Beran has 4 assists, which equals his total for the first 14 Big Ten games!!!
Some of these individual numbers are really bad. Audige and Roper shot very poorly. Young didn't score and only took 2 shots.
We had no inside game and lost the rebounding battle 37-30.
We don't seem to have an understanding of how to attack a zone defense.

Of the combinations that have been successful in the previous games, the Buie/Greer backcourt only played together 5 minutes, winning 9-7.
The other successful combo, Audige with Berry, lost 11-6 in 5 minutes of action.
We saw Nance and Young together for almost 7 minutes, but never with Buie and Greer. They got beat 12-6.
Nance/Young/Roper/Berry has now been a disastrous 11-33 in almost 15 minutes of confused play.
Things were so bad that Collins reverted to a few segments of Young with 4 guards. That never works and got beat 7-2 in about 2 minutes.
We also saw a lot of a combo that had been consistently bad in prior games - Roper with Berry.
Against Minnesota, Roper and Berry played together for 10 minutes and we got massacred 28-11.

At this point in the season, Ryan Young is 196-162 when the backcourt is Greer and Buie.
If Young is out there with anybody else, we have been outscored 417 - 351.

 

[Hungry Jack]

 

[NUCat320]

Dang, has anyone noticed how efficient Nicholson is. Might be time to get him some minutes.

I’ll note that I asked a few weeks ago if Roper and Berry had gotten any run together. I believe the answer was ‘no’ at the time. Oops.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Dang, has anyone noticed how efficient Nicholson is. Might be time to get him some minutes.

Oops.

Shhh! Nicholson’s fouls might cost us the game!

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Shhh! Nicholson’s fouls might cost us the game!

Player	Minutes	NU pts	MIN pts	Team +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Pete Nance	31	48	59	-11	+1.5	-9.5
Robbie Beran	22	40	39	+1	+2.0	+3
Boo Buie	30	48	61	-13	+1.7	-11.3
Chase Audige	25	42	47	-5	-7.7	-12.7
Ryan Young	12	11	26	-15	+0.7	-14.3
Julian Roper	23	33	48	-15	-2.1	-17.1
Ty Berry	14	15	32	-17	+3.9	-13.1
Casey Simmons	17	26	31	-5	+4.5	-0.5
Brooks Barnhizer	7	14	11	+3	-0.8	+2.2
Ryan Greer	13	16	19	-3	-1.7	-4.7
Elyjah Williams	2	0	8	-8	-2.8	-10.8
Matt Nicholson	3	7	4	+3	+0.9	+3.9

Our worst effort of the season.
Gotta give credit to Robbie Beran who played a decent game. Same goes for Casey Simmons.
In the last two games, Beran has 4 assists, which equals his total for the first 14 Big Ten games!!!
Some of these individual numbers are really bad. Audige and Roper shot very poorly. Young didn't score and only took 2 shots.
We had no inside game and lost the rebounding battle 37-30.
We don't seem to have an understanding of how to attack a zone defense.

Of the combinations that have been successful in the previous games, the Buie/Greer backcourt only played together 5 minutes, winning 9-7.
The other successful combo, Audige with Berry, lost 11-6 in 5 minutes of action.
We saw Nance and Young together for almost 7 minutes, but never with Buie and Greer. They got beat 12-6.
Nance/Young/Roper/Berry has now been a disastrous 11-33 in almost 15 minutes of confused play.
Things were so bad that Collins reverted to a few segments of Young with 4 guards. That never works and got beat 7-2 in about 2 minutes.
We also saw a lot of a combo that had been consistently bad in prior games - Roper with Berry.
Against Minnesota, Roper and Berry played together for 10 minutes and we got massacred 28-11.

At this point in the season, Ryan Young is 196-162 when the backcourt is Greer and Buie.
If Young is out there with anybody else, we have been outscored 417 - 351.

Should have gave more minutes to Beran. Bad Coaching.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Shhh! Nicholson’s fouls might cost us the game!

A 25/10 game is in store. Give the man the ball.

 

[GatoLouco]

I have long suspected that when substitutions start happening it’s all random. I am convinced 90% of it is CC looking at the bench and randomly picking a backcourt or front court guy to come into the game.

Simmons yesterday was an exception. CC realized Battle was a bad matchup for Beran. Just like Harper Jr was but was, by chance, ok for one half. So Audige was moved to guard him and when Audige had to be substituted it was Simmons who was put on Battle. I did not need to see Battle score 8 pts in 7 minutes to start the game to know it was dumb to have Beran on him. CC did. But at least this time he actually made an adjustment.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I have long suspected that when substitutions start happening it’s all random. I am convinced 90% of it is CC looking at the bench and randomly picking a backcourt or front court guy to come into the game.

Simmons yesterday was an exception. CC realized Battle was a bad matchup for Beran. Just like Harper Jr was but was, by chance, ok for one half. So Audige was moved to guard him and when Audige had to be substituted it was Simmons who was put on Battle. I did not need to see Battle score 8 pts in 7 minutes to start the game to know it was dumb to have Beran on him. CC did. But at least this time he actually made an adjustment.

This is my biggest question with Collins...
Why is he unable to settle on 3-4 lineups that he allocates 50% of the minutes?
It just reeks of indecision or confusion or even desperation.
"Northwestern has depth" is another way of saying "there's not much difference between the players, as far as I can tell." At some point the coach has to commit to certain players / lineups.

Here are top 12 lineups, based on playing time...

Lineup	Pct of Time	NU	Oppo	Ratio
Nance/Beran/Buie/Audige/Roper	10.5%​	126	143	0.881
Nance/Beran/Buie/Audige/Berry	9.63%	137	127	1.079
Nance/Simmons/Beran/Buie/Berry	4.27%​	53	66	0.803
Nance/Beran/Buie/Greer/Roper	3.79%	67	49	1.367
Young/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie	3.66%	46	57	0.807
Young/Williams/Roper/Greer/Berry	2.71%	29	34	0.853
Nance/Beran/Audige/Greer/Buie	2.71%	34	45	0.756
Young/Beran/Audige/Buie/Berry	2.66%	23	33	0.697
Nance/Williams/Berry/Audige/Greer	2.30%	41	27	1.519
Young/Williams/Audige/Greer/Berry	2.24%	39	29	1.345
Young/Williams/Berry/Buie/Greer	2.18%	37	25	1.480
Nance/Williams/Roper/Buie/Greer	2.10%	22	26	0.846

So what jumps right out is that only TWO lineups are averaging over 2 minutes together per game.
And they're averaging only about 4 minutes.

The top 12 lineups have played 48.75% of the minutes, getting outscored 661-654.
The other 104 lineups have played 51.25% of the minutes, getting outscored 693-670.

It is simply bizarre.

 

[GatoLouco]

The game against MN brought up memories of the game at Assembly Hall two years ago.

I was at that game and arrived like 45 minutes before tip off. I wrote here that I did not like the overall vibe while warming up. Too much goofing around. Though not limited to, I singled out Nance. He was obviously much more of a kid than he is now. It appeared to me, at times, it looked more like putting up some shots with your buds than a serious basketball game warm up.

I think that was the time I felt more lambasted on this board. I was told by several people it was ludicrous to think such "minor" things mattered. It seemed to the board I was basically talking crazy. I believe there was one poster who thought my post was not completely stupid.

I also pointed out how our entire bench was looking up at the jumbotron to see one of those motivational home team videos, and not in a huddle talking about the game. Which, other than that one instance, I am yet to see a team doing.

Collins was nowhere to be seen, but that's how most coaches roll anyway. I don't quite understand it, but accept they might delegate the "get them focused" part to assistants. I am still a bit surprised every time I hear, and I have heard it multiple times, commentators mentioning Izzo watches the warm up, like that's something weird. But I concede this paragraph is beyond the point, if almost every single coach does this, this is not a problem.

Why am I bringing this up? Because apparently our staff made it known how much our routine was broken by sleeping at O'Hare and flying with only the time to eat and go to the arena. There's work, coaching work, that goes into the time leading to tip off. And it's not just a speech in the locker room. Making sure the players are uber focused is of utmost important. It means getting in the game not losing a fraction of a second on a given possession. And that's all it takes to score or not score, allow or not allow a basket.

The disruption is a pain in the butt for the players. Athletes strive on routines, that's what makes them become so good in the first place.

I am not saying we were so pitiful in Minneapolis because our pre tip off focus sucked. But, at the same time, I don't see us as a team that starts games with much intensity. In the end it's just one more data point to give me pause about CC

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

“But I was just proud we didn’t go in with any excuses. No matter what happens, if we’re on the way to the game and the bus breaks down, then let’s walk to the game and let’s play. We’re gonna do whatever it takes to be ready to go.”

“Our guys did a great job of not panicking, just going through a normal day. We jumped on the plane, flew there, got off, ate, stretched, and went and played."

Penn State coach Micah Shrewsberry two weeks ago after his Nittany Lions experienced major travel delays, showed up in Madison just before game time and battled to a 51-49 defeat.

 

[BarefootCat]

This is my biggest question with Collins...
Why is he unable to settle on 3-4 lineups that he allocates 50% of the minutes?
It just reeks of indecision or confusion or even desperation.
"Northwestern has depth" is another way of saying "there's not much difference between the players, as far as I can tell." At some point the coach has to commit to certain players / lineups.

Here are top 12 lineups, based on playing time...

Lineup	Pct of Time	NU	Oppo	Ratio
Nance/Beran/Buie/Audige/Roper	10.5%​	126	143	0.881
Nance/Beran/Buie/Audige/Berry	9.63%	137	127	1.079
Nance/Simmons/Beran/Buie/Berry	4.27%​	53	66	0.803
Nance/Beran/Buie/Greer/Roper	3.79%	67	49	1.367
Young/Beran/Roper/Audige/Buie	3.66%	46	57	0.807
Young/Williams/Roper/Greer/Berry	2.71%	29	34	0.853
Nance/Beran/Audige/Greer/Buie	2.71%	34	45	0.756
Young/Beran/Audige/Buie/Berry	2.66%	23	33	0.697
Nance/Williams/Berry/Audige/Greer	2.30%	41	27	1.519
Young/Williams/Audige/Greer/Berry	2.24%	39	29	1.345
Young/Williams/Berry/Buie/Greer	2.18%	37	25	1.480
Nance/Williams/Roper/Buie/Greer	2.10%	22	26	0.846

So what jumps right out is that only TWO lineups are averaging over 2 minutes together per game.
And they're averaging only about 4 minutes.

The top 12 lineups have played 48.75% of the minutes, getting outscored 661-654.
The other 104 lineups have played 51.25% of the minutes, getting outscored 693-670.

It is simply bizarre.

Using your numbers, the analysis is very simple. When Beran is in, our ratio is 0.94 - we get outscored. When Beran is on thebench, our ratio is 1.2 - we outscore the opponents.

Beran 'looks' like a basketball player, but has little lateral movement and the performance isn't there...

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Using your numbers, the analysis is very simple. When Beran is in, our ratio is 0.94 - we get outscored. When Beran is on thebench, our ratio is 1.2 - we outscore the opponents.

Beran 'looks' like a basketball player, but has little lateral movement and the performance isn't there...

Yes, that is true regarding the Top 12 lineups as used by the coach.

I can tell you that when Robbie Beran has been on the court with all lineups, we have been outscored 784-738 in 438 minutes by our Power 5 opponents.
When he has been on the bench, we have outscored our Power 5 opponents 586-570 in 337 minutes.
And thats just any lineup, as long as Beran isn't in it.

"Not Roper" and "Not Simmons" also have outscored our Power 5 opponents, but they haven't been as successful as "Not Beran."

Not sure how significant that is, but it probably explains why I don't mind too much if Robbie Beran gets into early foul trouble.

Having said all that, Beran is playing better than he did last year.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Yes, that is true regarding the Top 12 lineups as used by the coach.

I can tell you that when Robbie Beran has been on the court with all lineups, we have been outscored 784-738 in 438 minutes by our Power 5 opponents.
When he has been on the bench, we have outscored our Power 5 opponents 586-570 in 337 minutes.
And thats just any lineup, as long as Beran isn't in it.

"Not Roper" and "Not Simmons" also have outscored our Power 5 opponents, but they haven't been as successful as "Not Beran."

Not sure how significant that is, but it probably explains why I don't mind too much if Robbie Beran gets into early foul trouble.

Having said all that, Bearn is playing better than he did last year.

I mostly liked his work against Purdue.