Presidential Poll Thoughts

Discussion in 'Wildcat Rant Board' started by Medill90, Jun 25, 2020.

  1. Medill90

    Medill90 Well-Known Member
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    The NYT/Siena Poll has caused a lot of buzz today because it indicates that Trump is down 9 or more points in all of the swing states.

    One takeaway from all of the polling this campaign to date is just how unlikable Hillary was to the candidate. Biden in fully ten points ahead of her across the board in swing states. That's a pretty big number (Hillary's favorability has also been polled in the last couple of weeks, she's still not liked)

    Anyway, with all that has happened in our country there is little doubt that Biden has been the beneficiary. He's been close to invisible and yet his lead grows and grows and grows. If the election were held today, Trump would lose in a historic route. But the election is in four months.

    IMO, Biden's numbers are a bit inflated and will be affected by lots of things over the next couple of months. His veep can have a neutral to negative effect. I don't think that will add to his lead. His acceptance in Milwaukee and his nationally televised speech....my advice would be tape it, don't risk an ad lib....can be negative pulls, not positive.

    I think he'll be better than Trump in the debates, but that won't add to his lead. Small risk. Not big risk he'll lose some support.

    More importantly, I think that Trump will drift back to where he's been the last four years in terms of favorability polling. With the huge exception being the Covid stuff happening in FL, TX, GA and other states. If the deaths spike over time, and if one of the states that reopened has crazy hospital stuff, the Trump deficit could very well increase.

    But what I wanted to get at is this. There is no normal today. In a typical election one would expect to see voters polling gaps move from candidate to candidate. That would be normal.

    I don't think that happens this cycle. I think the people who were Trump supporters and then indicate in May, June, etc. that they are voting for Biden, are gone from Trump forever. Totally and completely done with him.

    What Trump picks up here forward are R leaning independents who say they are for Trump. Here, too, if Trump does something crazy and they move off him, even to undecided, I don't think they go back to Trump.

    The electorate is done with him. His base will always vote for him. Plenty of R's will still pull the R lever. But those R's are in play.

    So, Biden's lead isn't as big as polling indicates, but it's a much, much steeper climb for the Trump campaign.

    Post-script I see that Trump today criticized the BLM protesters. The issue with that isn't the black vote which he doesn't have and will never have. The issue is that more than 70 percent of the country and plurality or R's are now sympathetic with the movement. So he lost some more R votes today.
     
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  2. cattul

    cattul Well-Known Member
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    The symbolism of watching the final sad, garish remnants of the tea party-cum-MAGA cosplay crowd file out of the Trump rally, and into the teeth of a much younger, far more energetic revolutionary countermovement was pretty powerful.

    The generations sort of passed that night.
     
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  3. DaCat

    DaCat Well-Known Member
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    MAGA cosplay! :)
     
  4. stpaulcat

    stpaulcat Well-Known Member
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    Did you know trump graduated MAGA Cum Loude from Penn?
     
  5. FeralFelidae

    FeralFelidae Well-Known Member
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    Pretty good analysis, and nothing I can really disagree with.

    Do you think Biden could get away with avoiding the debates? Not that I think he would necessarily lose, but they can't really help him at this point; they can only do harm.

    Quite possibly your best post.
     
  6. CatManTrue

    CatManTrue Well-Known Member
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    Why did it take you thousands of anti-Trump posts to finally come up with that?

    Quick advice: copyright it and put it on a t-shirt. Thank me later.
     
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  7. darmok

    darmok Active Member
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    Never underestimate the ability of people to vote against their best interests and continue to support trump despite everything.
     
    7 darmok, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
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  8. stpaulcat

    stpaulcat Well-Known Member
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    Gestation period.
     
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  9. corbi296

    corbi296 Well-Known Member
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    Most likely the race will tighten from where it is now but I still see a rout where Biden wins the popular vote by 5%+ and comfortably takes the electoral college.
     
    9 corbi296, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  10. cattul

    cattul Well-Known Member
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    That is very much what it is. I can say that now, having taken in the assembled hardcore supporters.

    I know they make up a tiny fraction of Trump’s base, but the traveling festival crowd he attracts is an undeniable cosplay culture.
     
    10 cattul, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
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  11. Fitz51

    Fitz51 Well-Known Member
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    We can only hope. The framework is there - it's just a question of continued desire.
     
  12. WestCoastWildcat

    WestCoastWildcat Well-Known Member
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    I was not a Hillary supporter and voted for her anyway- it was a Hobson’s choice. Another factor is that swing states that Trump barely slid by like WI and MI I see easily going for Biden this time around. Trump has really not done much to bring back manufacturing jobs to the rustbelt. I see more segments who stayed away in 2016 energized to vote this time around which will also enhance Biden’s chances. Also the degree Biden wins by large margins and the coattail effects could put the Republican Senate majority in play.
    I think it’s widely acknowledged that the Republicans have little hope in gaining back the House and may even lose their Senate majority if Trump’s 2020 campaign continues to fizzle. The selection of the Dem VP may be crucial, I think Biden made a strategic error coming out in advance limiting his choice to a female running mate. There are many good female candidates for VP in the federal and state level, but I would prefer someone like Cuomo, Newsom who have had experience as governors administrating the state response to the pandemic. I think competency in governing should have been a deciding factor for VP. Biden is just ok as a candidate, I will vote for him anytime over Trump. I would also vote for a moderate Republican like Romney now over Trump, and would think hard about voting for him over Biden, something I would have not considered years ago when Romney ran. We need moderate, competent leadership now. This next election will be transition to younger leadership at the Federal level, something that needs to happen sooner rather than later. We also grapple with the long term task of restructuring our flawed government at all levels to deal with deficiencies that the pandemic and our lackluster federal response has exposed. It’s time for the younger generation to step forward and take over and replace our aging leadership in the White House, House and Senate and Federal judiciary. We need a fresh start moving forward. Four more years of a corrupt and bankrupt administration is unfathomable to me. Structural change has to happen sooner rather than later. Biden represents a period of transition towards reform but the next generation needs to step forward to start enacting much needed reforms throughout all levels of government.
     
    12 WestCoastWildcat, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
  13. stpaulcat

    stpaulcat Well-Known Member
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    We also need to solve our most serious problems--cultural disenfranchisement, climate change, jobs, infrastructure, factory farming which are things Republicans will try to solve only timidly, if at all, even under a Romney type. They only position they seem to take is the fetal one.

    I really like Newsom and Cuomo, but part of what this country needs is to move a bit away from white, male, and European. There's only an illusory magic to that. We have become too diverse, not to mention half the population is female. It is time for a woman to run the country, and Joe just needs to pick the best one.
     
    13 stpaulcat, Jun 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
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  14. Alvious

    Alvious Well-Known Member
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    I believe Dandy Don has the correct election summary right here...
     
  15. rwhitney014

    rwhitney014 Well-Known Member
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    Better advice: apply for trademark registration and thank him later.

    Best advice: do something else and thank ME later.

    - IP attorney
     
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  16. CatManTrue

    CatManTrue Well-Known Member
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    I think we should consult an expert on science as well to determine what is truly the best course. Ideally a scientist like WickerTurk.

    While it is nice to hear from an IP expert, Turk is an expert on all things - particularly science, which is important in all decisions.
     
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  17. NU Houston

    NU Houston Well-Known Member
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    Fox News poll (!) has Biden slightly ahead of Trump in Texas. FAKE NEWS!

     
  18. CatManTrue

    CatManTrue Well-Known Member
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    Sue them! Just like CNN.
     
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  19. Alaskawildkat

    Alaskawildkat Well-Known Member
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    Where was Trump polling four months out last time?


    It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, Biden's selection for VP will make. As Biden continues to make gaffes like the one yesterday a lot of voters are going to be focusing on who may more likely be finishing out his term.
     
    19 Alaskawildkat, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
  20. NU Houston

    NU Houston Well-Known Member
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  21. NU Houston

    NU Houston Well-Known Member
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  22. Alaskawildkat

    Alaskawildkat Well-Known Member
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    Wasn't Nate the pollster who was one of the most off base in predicting the results of the last presidential election?
     
  23. NU Houston

    NU Houston Well-Known Member
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    I think everyone pretty much swung and missed in '16. Maybe that'll happen again, though Biden's lead in all polls is strong. He won't win Texas, but it's a fun idea to toss around.
     
  24. Mr Wickerpark

    Mr Wickerpark Well-Known Member
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    Im almost certain he will win 40 states. It is interesting that you think Trump will lose any debate with Biden.

    At any rate, nothing is new here. There were fears in 2016 and there are fears now. The names of the fears changed but it is the same story.
    You asked for opinion and all opinions are equal value but I cant see Trump losing, due to the law and order argument.
    If we do get Biden, then there will be a cultural shift that will change the path of this country about as much as the revolutionary war.
    And I have miexed feelings about that since my concern is an erosion of freedom or individual rights. Time will tell but I doubt Trump leaves office, even if he doesnt win any initial election.
     
  25. elgatoloco

    elgatoloco Well-Known Member
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    A Dem's gotta be +10 in Florida before it's meaningful.

    The obvious voter suppression in Kentucky is scary and I can easily see it replicated elsewhere.
     
  26. stpaulcat

    stpaulcat Well-Known Member
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    The Dems gotta be ready to file lawsuits where obvious voter suppression occurs.
     
  27. cattul

    cattul Well-Known Member
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    No, that is far too melodramatic. It might have the depth of effect of the new deal, though.

    And, if it comforts you, it will be another 250 years until the GOP yields majority status in the Oklahoma state legislature. I know your priority seems to be the abortion issue. Without a constitutional amendment, impossible to achieve with republican control maintained at the state level, this election will do little to move that needle.

    And, conversely, there is no possibility of passing a pro-life amendment either, so Roe stands, and you are already up a justice you don’t deserve.
     
    27 cattul, Jun 26, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2020
  28. Mr Wickerpark

    Mr Wickerpark Well-Known Member
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    Abortion picked up where the KKK left off. There is a reason why the black womb is the most dangerous place for a wonderful black baby. A racist will discount the racism as to why a black woman is 6 times more likely.
    The institutional racism is why we had a cultural shift after the 1965 civil rights case. First the Griswald case in 65 to encourage blacks to use contraceptive moreso, then the baird case in 72, then the 73 roe case which pretty much put the kkk out of business. But you are correct, that wont change, especially since blacks have embraced that institutional racism.

    What will change is police reform. Community policing is fine in my neighborhood. No golf course but very little crime. Even Racine is cleaning up.
    So, scrapping the police will adversely affect who?
     
  29. Fitz51

    Fitz51 Well-Known Member
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    I guarantee the GOP sees these numbers and is concocting way to prevent people from voting instead of trying to influence people to vote. It's the only path for their desperate minority. It may be the path to victory, though.
     
  30. CatVideos

    CatVideos Well-Known Member
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    I think Biden will win but there is one fly in the ointment. There are Trump supporters out there who in no way will admit it. I’ve talked to quite a few. They tell me that they don’t want to lose friends so they avoid the subject. Lots of them have been driven underground, far more than Nixon’s silent majority.
     
  31. cattul

    cattul Well-Known Member
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    “Defund the Police” is not synonymous with “Scrap the Police.” As a start, maybe it can be as simple as ending the practice of roided up local cops suiting up in the wee hours to play an untrained version of Delta Force. (Cop cosplay.)

    But, sure, I’ll play the cynic with you. We could reallocate budgetary resources from policing to social programs, have the next national crisis completely take away our focus, and watch the social programs be the first thing cut down the line. The rich can buy security. Gated communities with glorified private armies. We could go down a horrible path.

    But only if we are a horrible people.
     
  32. Gladeskat

    Gladeskat Well-Known Member
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    Turk is an expert on all things 'fake'.
     
  33. TheC

    TheC Well-Known Member
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    So you're saying Trump picked up some black voters? ;)
     
  34. Mr Wickerpark

    Mr Wickerpark Well-Known Member
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    The rich will always be insulated.
    Getting back to defunding, i know some muslim hoods in France are said to be community policing with good results. Im not sure thats true but community policing worked pretty damn good in the old western movies lol (posses worked great) and in reality. The problem with community policing starts with the justice system. You have to revamp the whole system, which is fine if its workable.
     
  35. cattul

    cattul Well-Known Member
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    I agree with every bit of that.
     
  36. NU Houston

    NU Houston Well-Known Member
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    According to Trump, he's done more to help black Americans than any other president, except maybe the late, great Abraham Lincoln.
     
  37. corbi296

    corbi296 Well-Known Member
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    I think this time around there may be just as many registered Republicans who plan to vote for Biden but are unwilling to publicly admit it. I can tell you there are several Republicans in Congress that fit that description.
     
  38. TheC

    TheC Well-Known Member
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    I read an article and I can't remember where, but the gist of it was that pollers in 2016 dramatically underpolled white, non-college educated people because they didn't consider them likely voters. That was a mistake that contributed somewhat to the polls being wrong. They learned from that mistake and have been more careful about that in 2020. I imagine these polls are closer to accurate this year - or, as Corbi mentioned, undercounting Biden's support.

    None the less, these things tend to sway a bit like a pendulum. Trump will probably start to improve again at some point before November, especially as disaffected Republicans come home. The question is can he make up this much of a gap?
     
  39. corbi296

    corbi296 Well-Known Member
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    The easiest voters to win over are the ones that once supported you but recently became disenchanted. Unless Trump goes even more off the deep end, a real possibility, I fully expect some of the support he has lost to “go back home to momma” by the time Election Day comes around. The polls will tighten from where they are now but I full expect Biden to win in a rout by historical standards.
     
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  40. willycat

    willycat Well-Known Member
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    Did you happen to see the photo of a disheveled, distraught Trump coming back to D.C. after his failed rally in Oklahoma?
     

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