The NYT/Siena Poll has caused a lot of buzz today because it indicates that Trump is down 9 or more points in all of the swing states. One takeaway from all of the polling this campaign to date is just how unlikable Hillary was to the candidate. Biden in fully ten points ahead of her across the board in swing states. That's a pretty big number (Hillary's favorability has also been polled in the last couple of weeks, she's still not liked) Anyway, with all that has happened in our country there is little doubt that Biden has been the beneficiary. He's been close to invisible and yet his lead grows and grows and grows. If the election were held today, Trump would lose in a historic route. But the election is in four months. IMO, Biden's numbers are a bit inflated and will be affected by lots of things over the next couple of months. His veep can have a neutral to negative effect. I don't think that will add to his lead. His acceptance in Milwaukee and his nationally televised speech....my advice would be tape it, don't risk an ad lib....can be negative pulls, not positive. I think he'll be better than Trump in the debates, but that won't add to his lead. Small risk. Not big risk he'll lose some support. More importantly, I think that Trump will drift back to where he's been the last four years in terms of favorability polling. With the huge exception being the Covid stuff happening in FL, TX, GA and other states. If the deaths spike over time, and if one of the states that reopened has crazy hospital stuff, the Trump deficit could very well increase. But what I wanted to get at is this. There is no normal today. In a typical election one would expect to see voters polling gaps move from candidate to candidate. That would be normal. I don't think that happens this cycle. I think the people who were Trump supporters and then indicate in May, June, etc. that they are voting for Biden, are gone from Trump forever. Totally and completely done with him. What Trump picks up here forward are R leaning independents who say they are for Trump. Here, too, if Trump does something crazy and they move off him, even to undecided, I don't think they go back to Trump. The electorate is done with him. His base will always vote for him. Plenty of R's will still pull the R lever. But those R's are in play. So, Biden's lead isn't as big as polling indicates, but it's a much, much steeper climb for the Trump campaign. Post-script I see that Trump today criticized the BLM protesters. The issue with that isn't the black vote which he doesn't have and will never have. The issue is that more than 70 percent of the country and plurality or R's are now sympathetic with the movement. So he lost some more R votes today.