I am not looking to provoke another discussion about Carmody, so please let's not go there again. This is an honest question arising out of my ignorance on NCAA tournament criteria. If NU had beaten Maryland, Ohio State in one of the games, and Michigan and won one game in the B1G tourney, would it have had any chance to make the NCAA's? Would that have raised it's RPI to the 60's or 70's?
Question on Schedule
- Thread starter clarificationcat
- Start date
I'm no expert, but will take a stab.
In this scenario (assuming NU beat OSU in March), the 'Cats would be 6-8 vs the top 100 (1-7 against the top 25). Their RPI, as you suggested, might have climbed into the 70s, their SOS would still be extremely weak, and would have finished the season strong going 7-3 over the final 10 games.
Here's the back end of the NCAA at large field:
Pittsburgh
RPI: 53
SOS: 29
Top 100 (Top 25): 9-9 (1-7)
Last 10: 4-6
Syracuse
RPI: 72
SOS: 43
Top 100 (Top 25): 8-10 (2-5)
Last 10: 5-5
Tulsa
RPI: 58
SOS: 64
Top 100 (Top 25): 8-8 (1-1)
Last 10: 6-4
Vanderbilt
RPI: 63
SOS: 40
Top 100 (Top 25): 7-10 (2-6)
Last 10: 6-4
The 'Cats new resume, while comparable in some ways, still represents the worst RPI/SOS combo of the five. In fact, Tulsa's SOS of 64 would still likely be 30 to 40 spots ahead of NU's. The OOC slate would be the real impediment here. It's something the committee has harped on over the past 5 or so years.
Last edited:
Let me add to ColumbusCat.
I know there's an opinion the Cats' schedule killed their chances at either tournament. I don't know if I buy that, especially for the NIT.
Yes, the non-conference strength of schedule was HORRIBLE. But take a look at how many games were played versus various RPI ranks. Then compare it to the last few teams that made the tournament - especially CC's friends at Michigan. NU's schedule was not off-the-charts misguided.
The number of games played versus 201+ RPI teams is very similar to several tournament teams. If you want to tell me this part of the schedule was so weak that it would have blown any NCAA possibilities, I would buy that as part of the problem. But it's nowhere near the whole issue.
OTOH, there's a BIG, FAT 0-6 versus teams in the RPI top 25. NU's record versus teams with RPI ranks of 51-100 doesn't really stand up in comparison either. Those are probably bigger factors than others in the Cats trip home.
The games were there on the schedule. Under your scenario, I don't think wins against Ohio State and Michigan would have helped their NCAA chances. Like Michigan, I think NU would have needed 3 top 25 (two games vs Maryland and 1 vs. Purdue ??) to be in conversation for the NCAA. However, the schedule might have become a problem in that scenario.
For the NIT, I don't think this schedule was a problem. The games were there, and the Cats didn't do much with it.
NU
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 0-6
#26-50 ... 1-1
# 51-100 ...1-4
#101-200 ...7-1
#201+ ... 11-0
KenPom SOS rank ...103
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 345
Michigan (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0
KenPom SOS rank ...46
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 235
Vanderbilt (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 2-6
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...5-3
#101-200 ...8-3
#201+ ... 4-0
KenPom SOS rank ...27
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 45
Wichita St (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-1
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...3-5
#101-200 ...8-1
#201+ ... 11-0
KenPom SOS rank ... 122
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 26
Tulsa (last team in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-1
#26-50 ... 3-4
# 51-100 ...4-3
#101-200 ...2-3
#201+ ... 10-0
KenPom SOS rank ...72
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 160
Monmouth (one of first four out)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 0-1
#26-50 ... 1-0
# 51-100 ...2-3
#101-200 ...7-2
#201+ ... 8-1
KenPom SOS rank ... 168
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 20
St. Bonaventure (one of first four out)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-1
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...4-3
#101-200 ...7-2
#201+ ... 8-1
KenPom SOS rank ... 125
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 286
Long Beach St (maybe the last NIT at-large bid)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-3
#26-50 ... 0-2
# 51-100 ...6-3
#101-200 ...2-4
#201+ ... 9-2
KenPom SOS rank ...59
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 1
I know there's an opinion the Cats' schedule killed their chances at either tournament. I don't know if I buy that, especially for the NIT.
Yes, the non-conference strength of schedule was HORRIBLE. But take a look at how many games were played versus various RPI ranks. Then compare it to the last few teams that made the tournament - especially CC's friends at Michigan. NU's schedule was not off-the-charts misguided.
The number of games played versus 201+ RPI teams is very similar to several tournament teams. If you want to tell me this part of the schedule was so weak that it would have blown any NCAA possibilities, I would buy that as part of the problem. But it's nowhere near the whole issue.
OTOH, there's a BIG, FAT 0-6 versus teams in the RPI top 25. NU's record versus teams with RPI ranks of 51-100 doesn't really stand up in comparison either. Those are probably bigger factors than others in the Cats trip home.
The games were there on the schedule. Under your scenario, I don't think wins against Ohio State and Michigan would have helped their NCAA chances. Like Michigan, I think NU would have needed 3 top 25 (two games vs Maryland and 1 vs. Purdue ??) to be in conversation for the NCAA. However, the schedule might have become a problem in that scenario.
For the NIT, I don't think this schedule was a problem. The games were there, and the Cats didn't do much with it.
NU
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 0-6
#26-50 ... 1-1
# 51-100 ...1-4
#101-200 ...7-1
#201+ ... 11-0
KenPom SOS rank ...103
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 345
Michigan (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0
KenPom SOS rank ...46
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 235
Vanderbilt (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 2-6
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...5-3
#101-200 ...8-3
#201+ ... 4-0
KenPom SOS rank ...27
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 45
Wichita St (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-1
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...3-5
#101-200 ...8-1
#201+ ... 11-0
KenPom SOS rank ... 122
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 26
Tulsa (last team in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-1
#26-50 ... 3-4
# 51-100 ...4-3
#101-200 ...2-3
#201+ ... 10-0
KenPom SOS rank ...72
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 160
Monmouth (one of first four out)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 0-1
#26-50 ... 1-0
# 51-100 ...2-3
#101-200 ...7-2
#201+ ... 8-1
KenPom SOS rank ... 168
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 20
St. Bonaventure (one of first four out)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-1
#26-50 ... 0-1
# 51-100 ...4-3
#101-200 ...7-2
#201+ ... 8-1
KenPom SOS rank ... 125
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 286
Long Beach St (maybe the last NIT at-large bid)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 1-3
#26-50 ... 0-2
# 51-100 ...6-3
#101-200 ...2-4
#201+ ... 9-2
KenPom SOS rank ...59
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 1
There is a website that let's you run all these scenarios and get the math back... It's called RPI Wizard.
I just entered the scenario you suggested. I had us beat Maryland, beat OSU on the road, beat Michigan in the BTT and then lose to Indiana in the quarterfinals of the BTT. According to the site, these outcomes would have left us with a 23-10 record, a 122 SOS and still only an 81 RPI.
This would have surely qualified us for the NIT, but still probably left us out of the NCAA Tournament. The 10 games we played against 250+ RPI teams were just too damaging to the SOS and RPI in the long run.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Northwestern.html
I have a scheduling question. NCAA D1 allows four games against non-D1 schools. Is it smarter to play a 200+ RPI team or just play non-D1 school? Not promoting that or anything...just curious about it...
A couple? Yale got the bid and is decent. Princeton is in the NIT despite having no real good wins against even mid-majors. Columbia finished third and was beaten by an NU team that is home for spring break. I think it is a real stretch to think any Ivies other than the Champ belong in the NCAA tourney.
I don't think non-D1 schools are the way to go. Most of the schools outlined above played one non-D1 game at most.
I think you REALLY need to stay away from those teams in the kenpom/RPI 300s. And look at how many NU had:
Miss Valley St - 339 kenpom
SIU-Edwardswille - 323
New Orleans - 320
Chicago St - 349
Sacred Heart - 292
On the other hand, Fairfield is at 183 who NU played this year. Just a quick glance also gives me Wofford, LOYOLA-CHI, Denver, North Florida and Georgia St in the 180s. Depaul is 201.
In my little scheduling world, I'd scope out NIU at 164, Loyola (185), DePaul (201) and Western Illinois at 240. Local teams like that would be the foundation of my schedule every year.
You might argue that NU needs another game or two in the 50-100 range compared to this year.
It's pretty obvious Collins was unsure about his team. That's cool for one year. But as a general rule, I don't know why you don't load up the schedule after 150ish and stop around 220. There's plenty of junk that any mediocre B10 team should beat. If you can't beat those teams, then you're probably not a very good team and you do what Collins did.
But once again, the 200+ part of this schedule is not why NU is sitting at home. NU had 11 games, and every team listed above except Vandy had between 9 and 11 200+ games.
Your answer is that it's smarter to play a D2 school.
But it's smarter to "game" the RPI and play teams that should have decent W/L records from one-bid conferences, because Opponent W/L record is still the biggest part of the RPI formula.
It's pretty easy to have a good RPI with a mediocre strength of schedule.
If you think about it .... we play 18 conference games, maybe a 4 game protected tournament, DePaul, Loyola, and local team X (maybe Northern) for local games/interest.
That leaves 6 extra NC games.
One would be the ACC/BIG game
While others want a Butler-type on the schedule, I don't think it's at all necessary.
We should be able to look at returning players and come up with a list of 15-20 schools to target, all of whom should be around .500 or slightly better in 1-bid conferences. Still "cupcakes" but 5 of them would be perfect for November/December. They'd give us wins without blowing up our RPI to an unrecoverable level.
It should be "easy" to target 5 teams in the 150-225 RPI level. We can make a better schedule by raising the floor rather than trying to raise the ceiling. We have plenty raised ceiling games in the Big Ten.
I'm not saying they DONT care about ticket holders, of course they should.
But from this point forward, their No. 1 thought should be scheduling to have a good RPI and good record.
Who fits the bill from local conferences?
Horizon -- middle of the conference teams were all in the 150-200 range
Summit -- middle conference teams
Patriot -- Top 4 projected team if you want an academic school
Ivy -- Top 4 projected if you want an academic school (Columbia was the ideal)
Any average MAC team
Any upper half CUSA or OVC team
That gives you about 25 teams, schedule 5 of them a year, we'll never miss the NIT with 20 wins again.
Horizon -- middle of the conference teams were all in the 150-200 range
Summit -- middle conference teams
Patriot -- Top 4 projected team if you want an academic school
Ivy -- Top 4 projected if you want an academic school (Columbia was the ideal)
Any average MAC team
Any upper half CUSA or OVC team
That gives you about 25 teams, schedule 5 of them a year, we'll never miss the NIT with 20 wins again.
Yeah. I mean, winning is fun for me whoever we're playing...but if it's easy enough to bump up your SOS without making the schedule that much more difficult, then it definitely should be done.
As for playing a non-D1. Is it okay to play "one" of those games? What about scheduling one of the tiny Chicago colleges that might bring a small crowd with them?
It's a great idea in theory, especially in regards to adding non-D1 games. The problem with low major programs (and mid/high for NCAA tournament purposes) is you don't have perfect information. Even after thoroughly researching the pool of available opponents, it's impossible to know which squads will fail to meet expectations and which ones will exceed them. Holy Cross, while extreme, is a great example of how unpredictable much of division 1 basketball is. Scheduling (short of loading on up proven mid/high major talent) is always a bit of a crap shoot.
Wholeheartedly agree. The 'Cats just needed to find a way to beat one more team ahead of them in the conference. Simply couldn't get it done.
Obviously you're right Columbus ---- but look at our noncon this year, certainly little if any effort was done to game the RPI system. It's not 100 percent foolproof, but if you get 3 or 4 of those games right and end up with 1 game below 225 --- it's still gonna look A LOT better.
Definitely.
I love the idea of dropping a couple of dregs and adding a D2 or D3 program. RPI, as outdated as the system is, is what we have to work with. Might as well take advantage of the loophole.
That's what the preseason scrimmage is for.
Just as an FYI, non-D-I games aren't calculated at all for RPI purposes. So even if NCAA rules allow them, they don't get added into the total win number when crunching the numbers. The trick, as discussed thoroughly already, is to avoid those ~300 teams, like Rutgers.
Congrats. Here's an idea: PM me your name and seat location and call the ticket office to release the seats. I'll give you my name and info so that they can expect my call.
I would gladly pay for purple seats, but can't because people like you who hold them and never come. If you don't wanna watch the 'Cats, then just let the tickets go and let some others have a chance at them.
I'm with you on this 2011. Jules said that the purple seats are empty because of the weak opponents, yet there were lots purple showing in those elite sections down low, south side for the last game versus Nebraska.
A significant number of purple seats are held by people who live out of state and never go to any games. That's a much different thing from someone who doesn't want to spend a Tuesday night watching us obliterate MVSU by 50. Even the best programs don't have a butt in every seat for games against garbage opponents.
Remember that attendance is tickets sold, not butts in the seats......but there were more butts in seats for the crap OOC games this season than for the crap games in previous seasons.
Don't feel that Nebraska was a crap opponent. Those deep pocket folks should then find a way to give or sell those seats to deserving NU fans.
Just as a reminder, next year's non-con schedule is going to be much better. We're supposedly playing Dayton at the United Center. We're in a tournament where we'll play two of Notre Dame, Texas, and Colorado. We'll get an ACC opponent at home and a Big East opponent on the road, and we'll get DePaul at home. Add to that what is likely to be an improved Big Ten and we'll have plenty of opportunities to prove ourselves to selection committees.
I was just looking at the standings in the ACC and Big East and it looks like the ACC game here will be either Pittsburgh or Syracuse. (either will be a big draw). The Big East game will be either Georgetown, Marquette, or St. John's. The rest of these games will start coming in over the late spring or early summer. Remember the tourney in the Barclay Center also includes two home games against lesser teams.
I generally agree with the guy who said a lot of people in the upper purple section may not live in the area. I think a better description would be spending their winters in warmer climates. In my case I will probably be a little hit and miss in January and February as I intend to be in Florida more. I have a lot of people to pass them off to and my son is more than willing to go. I do think some of these tickets have gotten into the hands of ticket brokers because I rarely see the same person twice in some of these seats.
I've also found it interesting in the last few years that we have a new guy next to us who comes from Lombard and he has some friends who come over from the other side who are from Glen Ellyn and one guy was an assistant at Downers Grove South for a long time. It makes for a fun night because these guys know basketball. I guess what I'm saying is the demographics of the crowd is changing.
I'm sure that's part of it, but I know for a fact that some of them are held by people who don't live in the Chicago area in any season. Evidently they believe that the best way to financially support the program is to buy season tickets, even if they never use them or resell them on the secondary market. I have no idea, on the other hand, if any of them are actually held by ticket brokers, but it wouldn't shock me.
If heard that most of the brokers seats are on the north side. There were plenty of empty purple seats in the lower sections as well. Don't these far away fans have any friends?
Similar threads
