Rooting Interests

[SmellyCat]

I figure NU can get as high as a five seed and a low of 8. Basing this on where NU is currently projected and that one loss to an NCAA-bound team in the tourney won't drop them below 8. So who are the teams currently projected as 5 to 8?

Granted, St. Mary's has just one top 10 opponent left, so they're doubtful to drop to the six line, and Iowa State and TCU probably won't drop either considering the quality of their next opponents. So getting up to the five line, even with a BTT championship, is going to be tough (but possible)

However, the other teams could drop with an embarrassing loss in their first games of their conference tournaments, so let's take a look:

Seed​	Team​	Conference​	Date/Time​	Opponent​	Type​
5​	St. Mary’s​	WCC​	Tuesday 9:00​	Gonzaga​	LOST IN FINAL​
5​	Miami​	ACC​	Thursday 12:00​	Wake Forest​	Quarterfinal​
5​	San Diego St.​	MWC​	Thursday 3:00​	Colorado St.​	Quarterfinal​
5​	Iowa St.​	Big 12​	Thursday 12:30​	Baylor​	Quarterfinal​
​	​	​	​	​	​
6​	TCU​	Big 12​	Thursday 9:30​	Kansas St.​	Quarterfinal​
6​	Kentucky​	SEC​	Friday 9:00​	Vanderbilt Georgia LSU​	Quarterfinal​
6​	Creighton​	Big East​	Thursday 9:30​	Georgetown Villanova​	Quarterfinal​
6​	Texas A&M​	SEC​	Friday 7:00​	Auburn Arkansas​	Quarterfinal​
​	​	​	​	​	​
7​	Duke​	ACC​	Thursday 2:30​	Pittsburgh​	Quarterfinal​
7​	Michigan St.​	Big 10​	Friday 2:30​	Iowa Ohio St.​	Quarterfinal​
7​	Northwestern​	Big 10​	Friday 6:30​	Illinois Penn St.​	Quarterfinal​
7​	Missouri​	SEC​	Friday 3:00​	Tennessee Ole Miss​	Quarterfinal​
​	​	​	​	​	​
8​	Iowa​	Big 10​	Thursday 2:30​	Ohio St.​	Second Round​
8​	Maryland​	Big 10​	Thursday 9:00​	Minnesota Nebraska​	Second Round​
8​	Illinois​	Big 10​	Thursday 6:30​	Penn St.​	Second Round​
8​	Arkansas​	SEC​	Thursday 7:00​	Auburn​	Second Round​

 

[SmellyCat]

It's Thursday, and now we're really starting! An update of the chart:

Seed	Team	Conference	Date/Time	Opponent	Type
5	St. Mary’s	WCC	Tuesday 9:00	Gonzaga	LOST IN FINAL
5	Miami	ACC	Thursday 12:00	Wake Forest	Quarterfinal
5	San Diego St.	MWC	Thursday 3:00	Colorado St.	Quarterfinal
5	Iowa St.	Big 12	Thursday 12:30	Baylor	Quarterfinal
6	TCU	Big 12	Thursday 9:30	Kansas St.	Quarterfinal
6	Kentucky	SEC	Friday 9:00	Vanderbilt or LSU	Quarterfinal
6	Creighton	Big East	Thursday 9:30	Villanova	Quarterfinal
6	Texas A&M	SEC	Friday 7:00	Auburn or Arkansas	Quarterfinal
7	Duke	ACC	Thursday 2:30	Pittsburgh	Quarterfinal
7	Michigan St.	Big 10	Friday 2:30	Ohio St.	Quarterfinal
7	Northwestern	Big 10	Friday 6:30	Illinois or Penn St.	Quarterfinal
7	Missouri	SEC	Friday 3:00	Tennessee or Ole Miss	Quarterfinal
8	Iowa	Big 10	Thursday 2:30	Ohio St.	Second Round
8	Maryland	Big 10	Thursday 9:00	Minnesota	Second Round
8	Illinois	Big 10	Thursday 6:30	Penn St.	Second Round
8	Arkansas	SEC	Thursday 7:00	Auburn	Second Round

 

[SmellyCat]

Friday update. It's looking harder and harder to get up to the six line. NU needs to make it to Sunday I'd imagine to have a chance, but most of the teams within hailing distance are still playing, and most - if/when they lose - will lose to a good-enough team that they won't drop behind NU.

Seems like their best chance to move up is for Creighton, Texas A&M, Duke, and Michigan St. to lose tonight.

Also, seems that NU fans should root for Indiana over Maryland, not only to prevent much chance for NU to drop to the eight line, but also because a win over Indiana tomorrow would be better chance to move up than if it's Maryland.

Seed	Team	Conference	Date/Time	Opponent	Type
5	St. Mary’s	WCC			LOST IN FINAL
5	Miami	ACC	Friday 7:00	Duke	Semifinal
5	San Diego St.	MWC	Friday 9:30	San Jose St.	Semifinal
5	Iowa St.	Big 12	Friday 7:00	Kansas	Semifinal
6	TCU	Big 12	Friday 9:30	Texas	Semifinal
6	Kentucky	SEC	Friday 9:00	Vanderbilt	Quarterfinal
6	Creighton	Big East	Friday 9:00	Xavier	Semifinal
6	Texas A&M	SEC	Friday 7:00	Arkansas	Quarterfinal
7	Duke	ACC	Friday 7:00	Miami	Semifinal
7	Michigan St.	Big 10	Friday 2:30	Ohio St.	Quarterfinal
7	Northwestern	Big 10	Friday 6:30	Penn St.	Quarterfinal
7	Missouri	SEC	Friday 3:00	Tennessee	Quarterfinal
8	Iowa	Big 10			Lost in Second Round
8	Maryland	Big 10	Friday 9:00	Indiana	Quarterfinal
8	Illinois	Big 10			Lost in Second Round
8	Arkansas	SEC	Friday 7:00	Texas A&M	Quarterfinal

 

[NUCat320]

Duke looks real good too. Tough to jump ahead, in the hypotheticals anyway.

 

[1830sherman]

Also, seems that NU fans should root for Indiana over Maryland, not only to prevent much chance for NU to drop to the eight line, but also because a win over Indiana tomorrow would be better chance to move up than if it's Maryland.

Prefer MD. Wouldn't want to buck the law of averages, tempt fate, risk a Kopp breakout or whatever, and have to beat Indy for a third time.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Prefer MD. Wouldn't want to buck the law of averages, tempt fate, risk a Kopp breakout or whatever, and have to beat Indy for a third time.

Buie was having a really tough time running the offense against Jahmir Young, who is very quick and can jump out of the gym. I'd rather play Indiana.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Good news is dropping down to 8 appears less likely. The bubble itself is pretty thin.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Maryland still alive, Missouri with a big win. Michigan State, Iowa, Arkansas loss. Right on the cusp of 7 and 8.

 

[cedricmelons]

So for travel planning purposes, where and when do the bracketologists have us playing at this point or is it just too wide open to tell? I might book some flights and hotels tomorrow that I can cancel once the bracket is announced Sunday...

 

[SmellyCat]

Maryland still alive, Missouri with a big win. Michigan State, Iowa, Arkansas loss. Right on the cusp of 7 and 8.

Root for IU tonight. I think if Maryland loses we’re a safe 7. Mizzou should pass NU but MSU probably won’t.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Root for IU tonight. I think if Maryland loses we’re a safe 7. Mizzou should pass NU but MSU probably won’t.

Check. Fingers crossed.

 

[NUThump]

So for travel planning purposes, where and when do the bracketologists have us playing at this point or is it just too wide open to tell? I might book some flights and hotels tomorrow that I can cancel once the bracket is announced Sunday...

Still a 6 in Greensboro on CBS poll, and this is updated this morning post Penn State. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[SmellyCat]

Still a 6 in Greensboro on CBS poll, and this is updated this morning post Penn State. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

I guess a six is still possible as long as there are Jerry Palm types on the committee. My analysis is flawed in that we are taking a large combination of data points to make a solid ranking for NU when really the committee could just say, "nope, they're a six" or "nope, they're an eight" despite what looks like a median/mean of a seven seed from 100+ bracketologists. Anyway, I was just hoping to compare to the other potential players. I'll update my chart this morning, for what it's worth.

 

[SmellyCat]

I don't think Memphis or Utah St. are going to catch NU, but since they're still playing, I included them on the list. Vanderbilt is still playing too, but they're hanging out on the bubble. Penn St. is interesting though, with a chance to beat Indiana and Purdue and playing very well, plus with two head-to-head wins over NU this month, I could see committee members deciding on the last #7 to give it to PSU instead of NU. Hopefully NU isn't the team hanging onto the last #7.

A Missouri win today over Alabama surely pushes them above NU, and FAU has a gaudy record. If we want to avoid the #8, it's going to be tight if they both win tonight.

Main rooting interests today I would say then are Alabama, UAB, and Indiana, as it's doubtful NU will be ranked ahead of Texas A&M or Duke.

BM Rank​	BM Seed​	Team​	Conference​	Date/Time​	Opponent​	Type​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
21​	6​	St. Mary's​	WCC​	​	​	Lost to Gonzaga in Final​
22​	6​	Texas A&M​	SEC​	Saturday 3:30​	Vanderbilt​	Semifinal​
23​	6​	Duke​	ACC​	Saturday 8:00​	Virginia​	Final​
24​	6​	Kentucky​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Vanderbilt in Quarterfinal​
25​	7​	Creighton​	Big East​	​	​	Lost to Xavier in Semifinal​
26​	7​	Northwestern​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Quarterfinal​
27​	7​	Michigan St.​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Quarterfinal​
28​	7​	Missouri​	SEC​	Saturday 1:00​	Alabama​	Semifinal​
29​	8​	Maryland​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Indiana in Quarterfinal​
30​	8​	Arkansas​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Texas A&M in Semifinal​
31​	8​	Florida Atlantic​	C-USA​	Saturday 8:30​	UAB​	Final​
32​	8​	Iowa​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Second Round​
33​	9​	Illinois​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Second Round​
34​	9​	West Virginia​	Big 12​	​	​	Lost to Kansas in Quarterfinal​
35​	9​	Memphis​	AAC​	Saturday 5:00​	Tulane​	Semifinal​
40​	10​	Penn St.​	Big 10​	Saturday 3:30​	Indiana​	Semifinal​
41​	11​	Utah St.​	MWC​	Saturday 6:00​	San Diego St.​	Semifinal​

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

We've lost 4 of our last 5. Three of those should have been victories.

 

[SmellyCat]

Sunday update: We're pretty much out of time to move up. Even Jerry Palm, who had us at 6 all week, moved us down to 7. I'm just worried that the committee will see the losses at the end of the season (despite the opponents and closeness) and move us to an 8. I still think if Penn State beats Purdue, they'll take our seven. Hope I'm wrong. Memphis has looked great too, and they'll have an opportunity against Houston.

We'll know in about eight hours!

BM Rank​	BM Seed​	Team​	Conference​	Date/Time​	Opponent​	Type​
22​	6​	Texas A&M​	SEC​	Sunday 1:00​	Alabama​	Final​
23​	6​	St. Mary's​	WCC​	​	​	Lost to Gonzaga in Final​
24​	6​	Kentucky​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Vanderbilt in Quarterfinal​
25​	7​	Creighton​	Big East​	​	​	Lost to Xavier in Semifinal​
26​	7​	Missouri​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Alabama in Semifinal​
27​	7​	Northwestern​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Quarterfinal​
28​	7​	Michigan St.​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Quarterfinal​
29​	8​	Florida Atlantic​	C-USA​	​	​	Beat UAB in Final​
30​	8​	Arkansas​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Texas A&M in Semifinal​
31​	8​	Maryland​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Indiana in Quarterfinal​
32​	8​	West Virginia​	Big 12​	​	​	Lost to Kansas in Quarterfinal​
33​	9​	Memphis​	AAC​	Sunday 3:15​	Houston​	Final​
34​	9​	Iowa​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Second Round​
35​	9​	Illinois​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Second Round​
38​	10​	Penn St.​	Big 10​	Sunday 3:30​	Purdue​	Final​

 

[CappyNU]

Sunday update: We're pretty much out of time to move up. Even Jerry Palm, who had us at 6 all week, moved us down to 7. I'm just worried that the committee will see the losses at the end of the season (despite the opponents and closeness) and move us to an 8. I still think if Penn State beats Purdue, they'll take our seven. Hope I'm wrong. Memphis has looked great too, and they'll have an opportunity against Houston.

We'll know in about eight hours!

BM Rank​	BM Seed​	Team​	Conference​	Date/Time​	Opponent​	Type​
22​	6​	Texas A&M​	SEC​	Sunday 1:00​	Alabama​	Final​
23​	6​	St. Mary's​	WCC​	​	​	Lost to Gonzaga in Final​
24​	6​	Kentucky​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Vanderbilt in Quarterfinal​
25​	7​	Creighton​	Big East​	​	​	Lost to Xavier in Semifinal​
26​	7​	Missouri​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Alabama in Semifinal​
27​	7​	Northwestern​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Quarterfinal​
28​	7​	Michigan St.​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Quarterfinal​
29​	8​	Florida Atlantic​	C-USA​	​	​	Beat UAB in Final​
30​	8​	Arkansas​	SEC​	​	​	Lost to Texas A&M in Semifinal​
31​	8​	Maryland​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Indiana in Quarterfinal​
32​	8​	West Virginia​	Big 12​	​	​	Lost to Kansas in Quarterfinal​
33​	9​	Memphis​	AAC​	Sunday 3:15​	Houston​	Final​
34​	9​	Iowa​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Ohio St. in Second Round​
35​	9​	Illinois​	Big 10​	​	​	Lost to Penn St. in Second Round​
38​	10​	Penn St.​	Big 10​	Sunday 3:30​	Purdue​	Final​

Typically the big ten championship game has had zero impact on the bracket provided both teams are already in. I doubt that Penn State will move anywhere from where they are as of right now regardless of what happens today.

 

[SmellyCat]

Typically the big ten championship game has had zero impact on the bracket provided both teams are already in. I doubt that Penn State will move anywhere from where they are as of right now regardless of what happens today.

You're right...but I just worry about it. They beat us twice in the last two weeks, they're insanely hot, they beat Purdue, etc. They may have just had too far to go to catch us.

 

[NUCat320]

@SmellyCat in the same way that the BTT typically has not typically affected seeding, I wonder how much impact Memphis-Houston — starting 15 minutes earlier — can have. That feels good for the Cats (though it would feel better if the Cats had won Friday.)

Regardless, we’ll know where NU’s third-ever NCAA Tournament game will be played within the next four hours. I’ll be napping with hoops on in the background.