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Scanning kenpom ahead of NU-Auburn tonight

macarthur31

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Nov 10, 2006
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Yep, the Tigers are ranked #13 (kenpom 16), and come in undefeated. However, they haven't played a kenpom top 100 team yet, nor have they played a true road game. (4 home games and 1 neutral win over the Bradley Braves.)

Auburns got a highly efficient offense (112 points over 100 poss/23rd nat'l rank), and are only giving up 90 points per 100 poss (14th nat'l rank). What makes their offense great - they crash offensive glass at an elite level pulling down 44.1% of their misses (4th nat'l), and they get to the line: 39.4 FTA/FGA (68th nat'l). However, they are wasteful at the stripe - 66.1% accuracy (267th nat'l). They're great defensively - only allowing 41.6% eFG (28th), turn their opponents over 23.3% of the time (44th nat'l).

If they have a weakness offensively, they're not marksmen - only 28.2% from 3FG and they fire it up slightly above nat'l average, 38.1% of the time. They're also slippery with the ball - giving up the ball 20.2% of possessions, and they suffer steals 10.8% of their possessions.

Their bench plays a ton - 45.1% of total minutes (2nd nat'l) I was surprised that their average height is 5" shorter than our squad. 5'11" Wendell Green may bring down the average, but he is a dynamo who uses 29.8% of their possessions and goes .500/.381/.800. And, 6'10" Johni Broome is a high usage stud (29.1 of poss) who owns the glass - 20.5 OReb% (9th nat'l), and the airspace with a 13.9% Block rate (8th nat'l).

Is there a path for NU victory? Sure. If NU can hit 3s (Auburn only gives up 26.7% from distance), force TO's (NU stifles opponents on 23.3% of possessions - 46th nat'l, and steals the ball 13.6% of the time - 30th nat'lly) and get easy transition buckets, and find a way to win the glass (we only allow 23% OReb, which rates as 54th nat'l, and Auburn allows 34.7 OReb, which is 306th nat'l).

I'm intrigued on the matchup as the 'Cats have yet to play their best 40 min. Maybe tonight?
 
Yep, the Tigers are ranked #13 (kenpom 16), and come in undefeated. However, they haven't played a kenpom top 100 team yet, nor have they played a true road game. (4 home games and 1 neutral win over the Bradley Braves.)

Auburns got a highly efficient offense (112 points over 100 poss/23rd nat'l rank), and are only giving up 90 points per 100 poss (14th nat'l rank). What makes their offense great - they crash offensive glass at an elite level pulling down 44.1% of their misses (4th nat'l), and they get to the line: 39.4 FTA/FGA (68th nat'l). However, they are wasteful at the stripe - 66.1% accuracy (267th nat'l). They're great defensively - only allowing 41.6% eFG (28th), turn their opponents over 23.3% of the time (44th nat'l).

If they have a weakness offensively, they're not marksmen - only 28.2% from 3FG and they fire it up slightly above nat'l average, 38.1% of the time. They're also slippery with the ball - giving up the ball 20.2% of possessions, and they suffer steals 10.8% of their possessions.

Their bench plays a ton - 45.1% of total minutes (2nd nat'l) I was surprised that their average height is 5" shorter than our squad. 5'11" Wendell Green may bring down the average, but he is a dynamo who uses 29.8% of their possessions and goes .500/.381/.800. And, 6'10" Johni Broome is a high usage stud (29.1 of poss) who owns the glass - 20.5 OReb% (9th nat'l), and the airspace with a 13.9% Block rate (8th nat'l).

Is there a path for NU victory? Sure. If NU can hit 3s (Auburn only gives up 26.7% from distance), force TO's (NU stifles opponents on 23.3% of possessions - 46th nat'l, and steals the ball 13.6% of the time - 30th nat'lly) and get easy transition buckets, and find a way to win the glass (we only allow 23% OReb, which rates as 54th nat'l, and Auburn allows 34.7 OReb, which is 306th nat'l).

I'm intrigued on the matchup as the 'Cats have yet to play their best 40 min. Maybe tonight?
Excellent analysis. I think that they are going to try to manhandle us. They have a bunch of 6'8" 230 lbs guys.
Expecting a lot of fouls, which is not good for us because they are deep and we only have 7 + two freshmen who havent played.
 
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Pearl’s teams play lots of guys. While they don’t press like his teams have historically, expect lots of ball pressure. In addition to strength on the ball for Boo and Audige, it’ll be important for secondary ballhandlers (Berry, Barny, Beran) to play well.
 
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We can't have long stretches of suckage like we did early against Liberty.
It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we win tonight. We literally have nothing to lose and much to gain. Let 'er rip!
 
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