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Schedules and stats up to this point.

SmellyCat

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May 29, 2001
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Someone mentioned this on another thread, but I wanted to see how good NU's and UM's opponents have looked overall without being tainted by the numbers in their games against NU and UM. In other words, does Minnesota have a bad offense because they just do, or is it because 20% of their schedule has been played against a team that shut them down? (correct answer: bad offense even without NU's help). Anyway, I hope this makes sense. Of course it's early in the year, and the opponents haven't necessarily played murderer's row, and EIU is in there, and blah blah blah. I'll just report on the numbers.

(numbers are against NU or UM, and against everyone else on the schedule)

First, the defenses...

Rushing:
Stanford (85, 241.0)
EIU (70, 208.3)
Duke (177, 173.0)
Ball St. (181, 193.3)
Minnesota (74, 158)
OVERALL AVERAGES (117.4, 194.0)

Utah (127, 229.7)
Oregon St. (59, 231.7)
UNLV (92, 257.3)
BYU (50, 134.8)
Maryland (29, 196.0)
OVERALL AVERAGES (71.4, 207.6)

Conclusion: As good as NU looked against Stanford and Minnesota, they were average againt Duke and BSU. Meanwhile, Michigan looks damn amazing here, and they're doing it against rushing offenses that are a little better than NU's opponents' slate.


Passing:
Stanford (155, 264.8)
EIU (68, 194.7)
Duke (150, 250.0)
Ball St. (178, 222.3)
Minnesota (99, 219.5)
OVERALL AVERAGES (130.0, 232.1)

Utah (210, 182.7)
Oregon St. (79, 173.3)
UNLV (143, 157.0)
BYU (55, 324.3)
Maryland (76, 193.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (112.6, 209.2)

Conclusion: NU fares a little better here, but I'd probably still give the edge to Michigan. That BYU number is pretty amazing, especially when you consider that BYU got behind big early and probably wanted to pass even more than usual.

Scoring:
Stanford (6, 42.3)
EIU (0, 25.3)
Duke (10, 33.8)
Ball St. (19, 27.3)
Minnesota (0, 19.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (7.0, 29.8)

Utah (24, 43.7) - and yes, I know that 7 of those points came off a turnover. I'm just not going to look at circumstances on every game to see what I should count or not. I'm counting this as 24.
Oregon St. (7, 28.3)
UNLV (7, 34.0)
BYU (0, 30.3)
Maryland (0, 29.5)
OVERALL AVERAGES (7.6, 32.8)

Conclusion: Week 4 once again kills NU here, as Michigan was so much better against its opponent in that one week that it washes away everything else. Still, I love looking at those Stanford numbers.

Overall, numbers wise, I give the edge to Michigan on defense. It pains me to say that. I've also seen a lot of good NU defense with my own eyes, so I know they can play at a level much higher than they did in the Ball State game (which skews things a bit with only five games overall).

Next up: offense.
 
Numbers are NU's/UM's offensive numbers in the game, and the numbers the opposing defense averaged in other games besides the NU/UM games. Hope that makes sense.

Rushing:
Stanford (225, 105.8)
EIU (344, 187.0)
Duke (201, 104.0)
Ball St. (290, 194.0)
Minnesota (184, 151.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (248.8, 146.4)

Utah (76, 154.3)
Oregon St. (225, 162.3)
UNLV (254, 175.0)
BYU (254, 137.0)
Maryland (198, 200.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (201.4, 166.6)

Conclusion: Here's where you see NU's best advantage over Michigan, though the EIU game skews it a bit. Still, look at Stanford/Duke - NU is doubling up two very good defenses.

Passing:
Stanford (105, 221.3)
EIU (152, 144.7)
Duke (70, 165.5)
Ball St. (256, 259.3)
Minnesota (128, 161.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (142.2, 192.8)

Utah (279, 225.0)
Oregon St. (180, 144.0)
UNLV (123, 252.0)
BYU (194, 222.5)
Maryland (180, 267.0)
OVERALL AVERAGES (191.2, 226.3)

Conclusion: Yeccch. While we can be comfortable in our knowledge that Thorson has looked much better over the last six quarters, these numbers aren't pretty for NU. Not that they're that much better for Michigan, but it is better for them.

Scoring:
Stanford (16, 19.8)
EIU (41, 27.7)
Duke (19, 8.5)
Ball St. (24, 33.3)
Minnesota (27, 18.5)
OVERALL AVERAGES (25.4, 21.2)

Utah (17, 19.3)
Oregon St. (35, 23.3)
UNLV (28, 25.0)
BYU (31, 22.3)
Maryland (28, 32.8)
OVERALL AVERAGES (27.8, 24.9)

Conclusion: I'd give Michigan a minor edge here, but neither team has dominated opposing defenses like you'd expect top 20 teams to do. But you already knew that.


Overall, I'd say the numbers give the edge to Michigan, but if NU can run the ball well and avoid turnovers, I'd say they have a good shot to win.

Which, of course, I could've said without spending the last hour putting these numbers together, but where's the fun in that?
 
Numbers are NU's/UM's offensive numbers in the game, and the numbers the opposing defense averaged in other games besides the NU/UM games. Hope that makes sense.

Rushing:
Stanford (225, 105.8)
EIU (344, 187.0)
Duke (201, 104.0)
Ball St. (290, 194.0)
Minnesota (184, 151.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (248.8, 146.4)

Utah (76, 154.3)
Oregon St. (225, 162.3)
UNLV (254, 175.0)
BYU (254, 137.0)
Maryland (198, 200.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (201.4, 166.6)

Conclusion: Here's where you see NU's best advantage over Michigan, though the EIU game skews it a bit. Still, look at Stanford/Duke - NU is doubling up two very good defenses.

Passing:
Stanford (105, 221.3)
EIU (152, 144.7)
Duke (70, 165.5)
Ball St. (256, 259.3)
Minnesota (128, 161.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (142.2, 192.8)

Utah (279, 225.0)
Oregon St. (180, 144.0)
UNLV (123, 252.0)
BYU (194, 222.5)
Maryland (180, 267.0)
OVERALL AVERAGES (191.2, 226.3)

Conclusion: Yeccch. While we can be comfortable in our knowledge that Thorson has looked much better over the last six quarters, these numbers aren't pretty for NU. Not that they're that much better for Michigan, but it is better for them.

Scoring:
Stanford (16, 19.8)
EIU (41, 27.7)
Duke (19, 8.5)
Ball St. (24, 33.3)
Minnesota (27, 18.5)
OVERALL AVERAGES (25.4, 21.2)

Utah (17, 19.3)
Oregon St. (35, 23.3)
UNLV (28, 25.0)
BYU (31, 22.3)
Maryland (28, 32.8)
OVERALL AVERAGES (27.8, 24.9)

Conclusion: I'd give Michigan a minor edge here, but neither team has dominated opposing defenses like you'd expect top 20 teams to do. But you already knew that.


Overall, I'd say the numbers give the edge to Michigan, but if NU can run the ball well and avoid turnovers, I'd say they have a good shot to win.

Which, of course, I could've said without spending the last hour putting these numbers together, but where's the fun in that?

"Stats are for losers"
- Pat Fitzgerald
 
So special teams may be decisive. NU's has been great; highlights include a 100-yd return for a TD and a ~40 yd return to the 5 yard line. Not sure what Michigan has done.
 
You can't really compare kickoff return stats much since neither team gets to return kickoffs much!
 
Numbers are NU's/UM's offensive numbers in the game, and the numbers the opposing defense averaged in other games besides the NU/UM games. Hope that makes sense.

Rushing:
Stanford (225, 105.8)
EIU (344, 187.0)
Duke (201, 104.0)
Ball St. (290, 194.0)
Minnesota (184, 151.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (248.8, 146.4)

Utah (76, 154.3)
Oregon St. (225, 162.3)
UNLV (254, 175.0)
BYU (254, 137.0)
Maryland (198, 200.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (201.4, 166.6)

Conclusion: Here's where you see NU's best advantage over Michigan, though the EIU game skews it a bit. Still, look at Stanford/Duke - NU is doubling up two very good defenses.

Passing:
Stanford (105, 221.3)
EIU (152, 144.7)
Duke (70, 165.5)
Ball St. (256, 259.3)
Minnesota (128, 161.3)
OVERALL AVERAGES (142.2, 192.8)

Utah (279, 225.0)
Oregon St. (180, 144.0)
UNLV (123, 252.0)
BYU (194, 222.5)
Maryland (180, 267.0)
OVERALL AVERAGES (191.2, 226.3)

Conclusion: Yeccch. While we can be comfortable in our knowledge that Thorson has looked much better over the last six quarters, these numbers aren't pretty for NU. Not that they're that much better for Michigan, but it is better for them.

Scoring:
Stanford (16, 19.8)
EIU (41, 27.7)
Duke (19, 8.5)
Ball St. (24, 33.3)
Minnesota (27, 18.5)
OVERALL AVERAGES (25.4, 21.2)

Utah (17, 19.3)
Oregon St. (35, 23.3)
UNLV (28, 25.0)
BYU (31, 22.3)
Maryland (28, 32.8)
OVERALL AVERAGES (27.8, 24.9)

Conclusion: I'd give Michigan a minor edge here, but neither team has dominated opposing defenses like you'd expect top 20 teams to do. But you already knew that.


Overall, I'd say the numbers give the edge to Michigan, but if NU can run the ball well and avoid turnovers, I'd say they have a good shot to win.

Which, of course, I could've said without spending the last hour putting these numbers together, but where's the fun in that?

This you double post.;(
 
First, the defenses...

Rushing:
Stanford (85, 241.0)
EIU (70, 208.3)
Duke (177, 173.0)
Ball St. (181, 193.3)
Minnesota (74, 158)
OVERALL AVERAGES (117.4, 194.0)

Utah (127, 229.7)
Oregon St. (59, 231.7)
UNLV (92, 257.3)
BYU (50, 134.8)
Maryland (29, 196.0)
OVERALL AVERAGES (71.4, 207.6)

NU's been a bit shaky at times with assignment football as it relates to defending zone-read running teams and duel threat QBs. The moderate success Ball State and Duke (and even EIU's 70 yards) had running the ball came largely from breakdowns defending the option game. We were much cleaner there against Minnesota who ran a bit of that.

Michigan's style of (offensive) play more closely resembles Stanford and to a certain extent Minnesota. They do not use any option or designed QB runs (unlike Minnesota). NU's defense has been better against teams that try to pound the ball down hill. (Granted, Michigan has superior personell to Minnesota.). Michigan came out in a few funky offensive formations on occasion (including one where they split a couple of linemen out wide with a wide receiver), but they generally want to ground and pound down hill and play action pass deep (or bootleg to the backside flat). They look a lot like Stanford with perhaps a blend of Iowa and Wisconsin. They use lots of tight ends.

Having watched Michigan's defense a bit, they look a heck of a lot like NU. Perhaps better than NU at DT but weaker at DE. They have 3-4 good LBs and perhaps a better overall LB corps, but they have nobody like Anthony Walker as a playmaker. Their secondary is very good, but I don't think it's as good as NU's top-to-bottom. NU has better edge pass rushers as well, but Michigan's are pretty good. (They're good enough to be a tough matchup for our young OTs in pass rush situations.) Their DC has been very comfortable with complexity in their schemes like Doc has been this year. They dial up blitzes a lot and vary their fronts and coverages as well. There's a reason they're very good on third down. I like their defense very much, but I wouldn't trade with them.

Thorson looked much better against Minnesota than Rudock looked against BYU. Even with a huge second half lead, Michigan kept trying and generally failing to throw the ball (even on 1st down) effectively even when BYU was stacking the box to stop the run. Rudock is still very much a work in progress and Michigan's passing game is pretty inefficient.

I really liked how the NU OL played against Minnesota. That group and especially the tackles (Olson and Hance) have improved dramatically since the Stanford and Duke games. Frazier looked better than I thought he would in his first action, and he was getting after it. Our center and guards are going to have their hands full this weekend against UM. We'll struggle to get the kind of movement up front against their interior (active and physical) DL we've grown accustomed to this season.

Michigan's OL is good, but their RBs are average at best. Their best RB (who's solid but nothing spectacular) got hurt against BYU, and I don't know his status. There's a meaningful drop off in production after him. The WRs are solid, but they don't have anyone that scares me although one dude made a pretty impressive circus catch.

That Peppers dude is terrifying in the punt return game. Expect directional punts to play keep away with him.

This has all the signs of being a very good and physical football game. NU better bring its big boy pads. Michigan isn't fancy or overly talented at skill positions (for a Michigan team), but they are very physical, very tough and very disciplined on both sides of the ball. Based on how UM is playing and how OSU and MSU are playing (or sleep walking?) right now, I think Michigan has a good shot at winning the East unless those other teams start putting it together fast.
 
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