Seth Davis on CCC

[NJCat]

Good Q&A piece by Davis in The Athletic today......

Chris Collins is obviously a great culture fit at Northwestern, but do you get the sense that the institution is growing frustrated with the program’s lack of competitiveness? They’ve invested heavily in facilities and recruiting has been solid, but is winning important or are grad rates, etc. more of the focus? — Andrew R.

I can’t help but arch an eyebrow that “lack of competitiveness” could be a problem for a program that famously hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament until Collins got the Wildcats there in 2018. The Wildcats returned the core of that team in 2019 but showed a noticeable hangover in the face of heightened preseason expectations. Over the past two seasons, Northwestern has won a total of seven Big Ten games. That’s normal by historical standards, but it reflects a disappointing turn of events after that NCAA tourney breakthrough.

Collins’ program caught a tough break in the summer of 2018, when his top recruit, 6-4 point guard Jordan Lathon, was denied admission. Lathon was supposed to replace Bryant McIntosh and be the program’s point guard of the future. It’s much harder for a program like Northwestern than a lot of its Big Ten brethren to recover from something like that. Last year’s team went 3-17 in the conference, but the bulk of the minutes went to freshmen and sophomores. The Wildcats have a potential all-conference point guard in 6-2 sophomore Boo Buie. Moreover, Collins just got a huge verbal commitment last week from Casey Simmons, a 6-6 four-star forward from Massachusetts. It’s early, but right now 247 Sports ranks Northwestern’s 2021 recruiting class tops in the Big Ten. So yes, it’s been a rough two years, but there are signs that better days are ahead.

If there is one area where Collins has been deficient, it has been in his pursuit of transfers. Northwestern is never going to be able to beat the top Big Ten programs for top high school recruits. If the Wildcats can’t be more talented than their opponents, they have to be older, and the only way to stay old is by bringing in quality transfers. This will be especially true when the one-year transfer exception is extended to men’s basketball next season. I’m not sure if it’s Northwestern’s high academic standards that are preventing this, or maybe Collins is having a hard time shedding his Duke DNA. Regardless, there needs to be a shift on this front or Northwestern will have an even harder time climbing out of the cellar.

One more thing: If and when this program struggles, it’s going to take a lot to threaten Collins’ job security. In the first place, taking Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament pretty much earns a guy a lifetime contract. (Remember, Collins’ predecessor, Bill Carmody, never finished above .500 in the Big Ten and still lasted 13 years.) And a few years ago the school reworked Collins’ contract. He was drawing interest from other suitors, most notably Indiana after it fired Tom Crean in 2017, and the school thought it important to lock him up for the long haul. I expect there will be plenty more ups and down to come, but barring something truly unforeseen, Collins ain’t going anywhere.

https://theathletic.com/1907074/202...comers-will-impact-unc-uk-marquette-and-more/

 

[Medill90]

Thought it was a good piece.

Don't think he fully appreciates the unique complications related to NU bringing in transfers (versus the rest of the Big Ten)

 

[MotownMedilldo]

But we've still had our fair share of high-profile transfers: Walker Lambiotte from NC State, Mike Thompson from Duke, and Bernard Cote from Kentucky.

Thought it was a good piece.

Don't think he fully appreciates the unique complications related to NU bringing in transfers (versus the rest of the Big Ten)

 

[ohiovalleycat]

I think it was an even-handed assessment, but I disagree with the statement that Northwestern will never be able to compete with the top Big Ten schools for the top high school recruits. I think right now, it is harder for Northwestern to compete, but who knows what the future holds? NU has a niche it can exploit with top athletes who want a elite academic school environment. Maybe NU basketball evolve to "Duke North"...not saying it will happen, but saying NU will never be able to compete with the top Big Ten schools for recruits presumes NU will never elevate its basketball program. In 1990, there were people who thought NU would drop out of the Big Ten after it was announced that Penn State was joining...they were probably shocked when NU won the Big Ten football title in 1995.

Good Q&A piece by Davis in The Athletic today......

Chris Collins is obviously a great culture fit at Northwestern, but do you get the sense that the institution is growing frustrated with the program’s lack of competitiveness? They’ve invested heavily in facilities and recruiting has been solid, but is winning important or are grad rates, etc. more of the focus? — Andrew R.

I can’t help but arch an eyebrow that “lack of competitiveness” could be a problem for a program that famously hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament until Collins got the Wildcats there in 2018. The Wildcats returned the core of that team in 2019 but showed a noticeable hangover in the face of heightened preseason expectations. Over the past two seasons, Northwestern has won a total of seven Big Ten games. That’s normal by historical standards, but it reflects a disappointing turn of events after that NCAA tourney breakthrough.

Collins’ program caught a tough break in the summer of 2018, when his top recruit, 6-4 point guard Jordan Lathon, was denied admission. Lathon was supposed to replace Bryant McIntosh and be the program’s point guard of the future. It’s much harder for a program like Northwestern than a lot of its Big Ten brethren to recover from something like that. Last year’s team went 3-17 in the conference, but the bulk of the minutes went to freshmen and sophomores. The Wildcats have a potential all-conference point guard in 6-2 sophomore Boo Buie. Moreover, Collins just got a huge verbal commitment last week from Casey Simmons, a 6-6 four-star forward from Massachusetts. It’s early, but right now 247 Sports ranks Northwestern’s 2021 recruiting class tops in the Big Ten. So yes, it’s been a rough two years, but there are signs that better days are ahead.

If there is one area where Collins has been deficient, it has been in his pursuit of transfers. Northwestern is never going to be able to beat the top Big Ten programs for top high school recruits. If the Wildcats can’t be more talented than their opponents, they have to be older, and the only way to stay old is by bringing in quality transfers. This will be especially true when the one-year transfer exception is extended to men’s basketball next season. I’m not sure if it’s Northwestern’s high academic standards that are preventing this, or maybe Collins is having a hard time shedding his Duke DNA. Regardless, there needs to be a shift on this front or Northwestern will have an even harder time climbing out of the cellar.

One more thing: If and when this program struggles, it’s going to take a lot to threaten Collins’ job security. In the first place, taking Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament pretty much earns a guy a lifetime contract. (Remember, Collins’ predecessor, Bill Carmody, never finished above .500 in the Big Ten and still lasted 13 years.) And a few years ago the school reworked Collins’ contract. He was drawing interest from other suitors, most notably Indiana after it fired Tom Crean in 2017, and the school thought it important to lock him up for the long haul. I expect there will be plenty more ups and down to come, but barring something truly unforeseen, Collins ain’t going anywhere.

https://theathletic.com/1907074/202...comers-will-impact-unc-uk-marquette-and-more/

 

[Medill90]

But we've still had our fair share of high-profile transfers: Walker Lambiotte from NC State, Mike Thompson from Duke, and Bernard Cote from Kentucky.

Walker Lambiotte is still getting a blood transfusion from all the blood he lost in that game.

Collins has brought in bunch of serviceable transfers...the two centers, and in the last two years a starter each year. Perhaps what we was getting at is that the quality of transfers has risen and there are now game changes available that NU needs to get.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Walker Lambiotte is still getting a blood transfusion from all the blood he lost in that game.

Collins has brought in bunch of serviceable transfers...the two centers, and in the last two years a starter each year. Perhaps what we was getting at is that the quality of transfers has risen and there are now game changes available that NU needs to get.

Hopefully Chase will put this concern to rest.

 

[docrugby1]

The article does not address the most important issue

 

[JournCat]

Davis has the years we made and then missed the tournament wrong and writes off a decade-plus of progress by saying 7 wins in 2 years is normal for NU’s history. We’ve reportedly gone after major transfers every off-season. (Matt Mooney and Charlie Moore immediately come to mind.) Other than that, though ...

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Davis has the years we made and then missed the tournament wrong and writes off a decade-plus of progress by saying 7 wins in 2 years is normal for NU’s history. We’ve reportedly gone after major transfers every off-season. (Matt Mooney and Charlie Moore immediately come to mind.) Other than that, though ...

Yep. Kinda sloppy work from Seth (or his editor) on this.

The BIG wins argument really stuck out to me. If you go by conference win percentage Collins (.331) is only slightly better than Carmody (.313). There are certainly issues making a comparison between the two (sample sizes, state of program when taking over, strength of the conference, etc), but I think it shows that the previous regime was generally more consistent (albeit limited), whereas the current staff is more up and down (with a higher ceiling). This would have been my take prior to looking up the numbers, so while I'm personally optimistic when thinking about the future of the program, I could see how one could start to get antsy.

This trend is seemingly reflected in recruiting as well...although one could make the case that recruiting is somewhat a crapshoot to begin with.

 

[freewillie07]

Davis has the years we made and then missed the tournament wrong and writes off a decade-plus of progress by saying 7 wins in 2 years is normal for NU’s history. We’ve reportedly gone after major transfers every off-season. (Matt Mooney and Charlie Moore immediately come to mind.) Other than that, though ...

Was NU ever really in it with Charlie Moore?

Overall I agree there’s room for improvement on getting game-changing transfers, but CCC has landed Ryan Taylor, who was a coveted grad transfer, the centers, as well as A.J. Turner and Chase Audige. Taylor was somewhat disappointing, Turner had to play out of position for a year. Echo CoralSprings, I have high hopes for Audige.

I do wish CCC added at least one grad for depth in the coming season.

 

[NJCat]

Was NU ever really in it with Charlie Moore?

Overall I agree there’s room for improvement on getting game-changing transfers, but CCC has landed Ryan Taylor, who was a coveted grad transfer, the centers, as well as A.J. Turner and Chase Audige. Taylor was somewhat disappointing, Turner had to play out of position for a year. Echo CoralSprings, I have high hopes for Audige.

I do wish CCC added at least one grad for depth in the coming season.

How soon we forget. Pat Spencer was by FAR the most impactful transfer in the Collins era. OK, you could put an * next to him since he was a flier without any college hoops experience or high major offers. But he was the MVP of the 2019-20 team.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Was NU ever really in it with Charlie Moore?

Overall I agree there’s room for improvement on getting game-changing transfers, but CCC has landed Ryan Taylor, who was a coveted grad transfer, the centers, as well as A.J. Turner and Chase Audige. Taylor was somewhat disappointing, Turner had to play out of position for a year. Echo CoralSprings, I have high hopes for Audige.

I do wish CCC added at least one grad for depth in the coming season.

Hoping CCC still has a trick or two up his sleeve...another couple of grad transfers might still be available. I’m not giving up hope yet.

 

[Medill90]

Hopefully Chase will put this concern to rest.

I'm pretty high on Chase from his freshman year film. A good get by the staff.

 

[GatoLouco]

Ryan Taylor was a great get. And a player that, had he landed in a better situation, would have caused a great deal of damage to other teams. He could carry the load of scoring in a MM. In a P6 that was asking a lot. As a role player he’d have been deadly.

 

[DaCat]

Ryan Taylor was a great get. And a player that, had he landed in a better situation, would have caused a great deal of damage to other teams. He could carry the load of scoring in a MM. In a P6 that was asking a lot. As a role player he’d have been deadly.

Absolutely. I was expecting a lot from him, but he found it hard to succeed against Power Five competition.

 

[Katatonic]

Bit of a lazy and inaccurate write up by Davis.

After a rough stretch due to the lack of connectivity with local talent/schools (in addition to the simply embarrassing facilities), BC had built up the program where it was a consistent winner (4 consecutive years of making the NIT; would have been 5 injuries hadn't plagued what was his physically most talented team, the one with Swop), whereas previously (and since), the program would only make the post season once every 4-5 years with an upperclass-laden team.

CC may never have looked at NU if the program had remained a complete dumpster fire, instead of one showing some promise.

CC has improved recruiting (at least on paper), but like had stated from the start, would have to improve recruiting by a good bit if there wasn't going to be a schematic advantage with things playing out on the basis of the level of talent on the court.

There have been missteps - from scheme, pace of play, make-up of the team, certain recuits not panning out, some unfortunate injuries, etc. (to go along with the glorious Tourney run) - hence the lone team with a post season.

But seems that CC is learning from his mistakes (some things, quicker than others).

As long as recruiting is going well, and the program shows improvement (such as being in the running for an NIT bid, if there is a season), there won't be talk of a hot seat.

 

[freewillie07]

Hoping CCC still has a trick or two up his sleeve...another couple of grad transfers might still be available. I’m not giving up hope yet.

Any more top-tier lacrosse players looking to try their hand at basketball for a year?

Really is amazing that Pat Spencer turned out to be the best transfer yet. I’m hoping his impact on the young guys will carry over to next season and beyond.

 

[Vassar69]

Any more top-tier lacrosse players looking to try their hand at basketball for a year?

Really is amazing that Pat Spencer turned out to be the best transfer yet. I’m hoping his impact on the young guys will carry over to next season and beyond.

The fact that he was last years MVP and the best grad transfer to date says a lot about Pat’s drive and athleticism.

Unfortunately, it also says quite a bit about last years team and Collins’ tenure (excluding one single season) if that’s the only decent grad transfer he’s had. I get that you want Davis to give positive coverage, but he was honestly fairly reasonable. Lots of hope, but so far limited results and a W-L record headed the wrong way the last few years.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

“Excluding one single season”; ya know the greatest single season in the history of the program? Imagine the Cubs excluding one single season? LOL.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

“Excluding one single season”; ya know the greatest single season in the history of the program? Imagine the Cubs excluding one single season? LOL.

Careful, you will get Willy riled up.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

But we've still had our fair share of high-profile transfers: Walker Lambiotte from NC State, Mike Thompson from Duke, and Bernard Cote from Kentucky.

I think the point is more that those guys came from high-profile schools, but were not in and of themselves high-profile players. Yes I know Lambiotte and Thompson were McDonald's All-Americans, but they weren't exactly superstars at their original ACC schools.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Davis has the years we made and then missed the tournament wrong and writes off a decade-plus of progress by saying 7 wins in 2 years is normal for NU’s history. We’ve reportedly gone after major transfers every off-season. (Matt Mooney and Charlie Moore immediately come to mind.) Other than that, though ...

The whole point is that we have "gone after major transfers every off-season" but not actually landed any of them.

 

[Vassar69]

“Excluding one single season”; ya know the greatest single season in the history of the program? Imagine the Cubs excluding one single season? LOL.

I get what you’re saying, but...
1) The Cubs won a TITLE. The mythical 2017 Cats finished 10-8 in conference play and didn’t make it to the second weekend of the tournament.
2) If you erase the 2016 Cubs season, you’d still be able to point to that team making three other playoff appearances and two NLCS appearances in both the year before and after. Without 2017, Collins is 33-79 against conference foes and no other postseason appearances (NCAAT or NIT).

I get that he’s recruiting well if you go by rankings, but what’s it getting him on the court? Before his tourney appearance, he went 20-34 in three seasons of conference play with a mostly inherited roster. Then he made the tourney, and parlayed it into his own recruited team that’s gone 13-45 in the three seasons since. I know there’s still some reasons for optimism, but at the same time I think Seth Davis was pretty reasonable and generous with his overview.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I’ll take a yet inexperienced head coach who recruits very well. Collins will only get better as an in-game coach; there’s just no doubt about that. Carmody was likely one of the finest in-game coaches the basketball world has ever seen and was already very experienced in his job. If you put him up against almost any coach, that coach would look inferior, so we should be hesitant about criticizing Collins for this reason. Carmody’s ceiling overall was much lower than Collins’; hence, it was the right decision to replace Carmody with Collins. The future is bright for NU with Collins.

 

[Vassar69]

I’ll take a yet inexperienced head coach who recruits very well. Collins will only get better as an in-game coach; there’s just no doubt about that. Carmody was likely one of the finest in-game coaches the basketball world has ever seen and was already very experienced in his job. If you put him up against almost any coach, that coach would look inferior, so we should be hesitant about criticizing Collins for this reason. Carmody’s ceiling overall was much lower than Collins’; hence, it was the right decision to replace Carmody with Collins. The future is bright for NU with Collins.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

I get what you’re saying, but...
1) The Cubs won a TITLE. The mythical 2017 Cats finished 10-8 in conference play and didn’t make it to the second weekend of the tournament.
2) If you erase the 2016 Cubs season, you’d still be able to point to that team making three other playoff appearances and two NLCS appearances in both the year before and after. Without 2017, Collins is 33-79 against conference foes and no other postseason appearances (NCAAT or NIT).

I get that he’s recruiting well if you go by rankings, but what’s it getting him on the court? Before his tourney appearance, he went 20-34 in three seasons of conference play with a mostly inherited roster. Then he made the tourney, and parlayed it into his own recruited team that’s gone 13-45 in the three seasons since. I know there’s still some reasons for optimism, but at the same time I think Seth Davis was pretty reasonable and generous with his overview.

Haters gonna hate. If NU basketball was a stock; would you buy or sell? Holding is not an option.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

View embedded media

Nah.

Great scene, though.

 

[Vassar69]

Haters gonna hate. If NU basketball was a stock; would you buy or sell? Holding is not an option.

Sell and buy a Large Cap blend fund full of blue bloods haha

 

[Kat burglar]

IMHO CC now realizes that it is imperative to have guards. Not just Bmac for 4 years, but several. the last three years he has recruited Buie, Berry and Barnhizer. I'm sure he already knew that, but now we have solved that. I expect him to build on that and be back to the tourney next year.

A few years of .500 in conference and we all will be singing his praises. The 21 class improves on athleticism, another area needing improvement. Hopefully 22 and 23 build on wings as well. I would expect 3 of the next 4 years going to NIT or NCAA tournaments. Then we start moving up the talent ladder to the 50-100 ranked recruits.

We hit a few potholes in recruiting after the tourney year, but we are back on the road and picking up speed

 

[NURoseBowl]

Haters gonna hate. If NU basketball was a stock; would you buy or sell? Holding is not an option.

Buy. baby. Hoard.

 

[willycat]

IMHO CC now realizes that it is imperative to have guards. Not just Bmac for 4 years, but several. the last three years he has recruited Buie, Berry and Barnhizer. I'm sure he already knew that, but now we have solved that. I expect him to build on that and be back to the tourney next year.

A few years of .500 in conference and we all will be singing his praises. The 21 class improves on athleticism, another area needing improvement. Hopefully 22 and 23 build on wings as well. I would expect 3 of the next 4 years going to NIT or NCAA tournaments. Then we start moving up the talent ladder to the 50-100 ranked recruits.

We hit a few potholes in recruiting after the tourney year, but we are back on the road and picking up speed

Of course he knew he needed lots of guards, after all he was one. That's why the loss of Lathom hurt the team for at least two years.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

IMHO CC now realizes that it is imperative to have guards. Not just Bmac for 4 years, but several. the last three years he has recruited Buie, Berry and Barnhizer. I'm sure he already knew that, but now we have solved that. I expect him to build on that and be back to the tourney next year.

A few years of .500 in conference and we all will be singing his praises. The 21 class improves on athleticism, another area needing improvement. Hopefully 22 and 23 build on wings as well. I would expect 3 of the next 4 years going to NIT or NCAA tournaments. Then we start moving up the talent ladder to the 50-100 ranked recruits.

We hit a few potholes in recruiting after the tourney year, but we are back on the road and picking up speed

Sounds like a buy order to me.

 

[freewillie07]

IMHO CC now realizes that it is imperative to have guards. Not just Bmac for 4 years, but several. the last three years he has recruited Buie, Berry and Barnhizer. I'm sure he already knew that, but now we have solved that. I expect him to build on that and be back to the tourney next year.

A few years of .500 in conference and we all will be singing his praises. The 21 class improves on athleticism, another area needing improvement. Hopefully 22 and 23 build on wings as well. I would expect 3 of the next 4 years going to NIT or NCAA tournaments. Then we start moving up the talent ladder to the 50-100 ranked recruits.

We hit a few potholes in recruiting after the tourney year, but we are back on the road and picking up speed

Do you think it was a matter of CCC not thinking he needed more than one lead guard, or him not being able to land more than one?

Looking back on the 2015 and 2016 offers, the guards were quite sparse — and how NU ended up with Jordan Ash and Isiah Brown.

 

[IGNORE2]

Haters gonna hate. If NU basketball was a stock; would you buy or sell? Holding is not an option.

It would be a penny stock. Would drop my retirement money into but probably invest a couple bucks and hope to strike gold. Never sell a penny stock - what’s the point?

 

[Kat burglar]

Haters gonna hate. If NU basketball was a stock; would you buy or sell? Holding is not an option.

NU is the quintessential pharma value stock. Some of their blockbuster drugs went off patent so earnings are down, but they have a good pipeline. The stock price and valuation are low so not much downside, but plenty of upside if the pipeline proves out.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

I’ll take a yet inexperienced head coach who recruits very well. Collins will only get better as an in-game coach; there’s just no doubt about that. Carmody was likely one of the finest in-game coaches the basketball world has ever seen and was already very experienced in his job. If you put him up against almost any coach, that coach would look inferior, so we should be hesitant about criticizing Collins for this reason. Carmody’s ceiling overall was much lower than Collins’; hence, it was the right decision to replace Carmody with Collins. The future is bright for NU with Collins.

"Likely one of the finest in-game coaches the basketball world has ever seen?"

Say hey to your dad for us.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

"Likely one of the finest in-game coaches the basketball world has ever seen?"

Say hey to your dad for us.

The quoted statement is a little bit of an exaggeration, but it’s common knowledge that Carmody was a master tactician. That is without doubt.

He manufactured a ton of points for his teams off of inbound plays alone.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

The quoted statement is a little bit of an exaggeration, but it’s common knowledge that Carmody was a master tactician. That is without doubt.

He manufactured a ton of points for his teams off of inbound plays alone.

I get that Carmody had a unique offensive system and some nifty inbounds plays, but I still can't get over the concept that a supposed "master tactician" didn't seem to understand the value of offensive rebounding. I used to openly curse while watching all five of our guys turn and run back to the defensive end when a shot went up.

That's to say nothing of Carmody's appprehension about and de-emphasis of weight lifting and physical development because, essentially, he believed that it might deteriorate his players' skill level.

 

[Medill90]

I get that Carmody had a unique offensive system and some nifty inbounds plays, but I still can't get over the concept that a supposed "master tactician" didn't seem to understand the value of offensive rebounding. I used to openly curse while watching all five of our guys turn and run back to the defensive end when a shot went up.

That's to say nothing of Carmody's appprehension about and de-emphasis of weight lifting and physical development because, essentially, he believed that it might deteriorate his players' skill level.

On the latter...the weightlifting....I don't know if that was Carmody. NU didn't have a headcount dedicated to mens bball.

I generally agree with rebounding comment.....but he was balancing the benefit of his team being able to rebound offensively versus shutting down fast breaks and other benefits of being in defensive position. Assume he had some data on that (but it made me crazy).

 

[gocatsgo2003]

On the latter...the weightlifting....I don't know if that was Carmody. NU didn't have a headcount dedicated to mens bball.

I generally agree with rebounding comment.....but he was balancing the benefit of his team being able to rebound offensively versus shutting down fast breaks and other benefits of being in defensive position. Assume he had some data on that (but it made me crazy).

I was in the building. It was Carmody.