Stanford v. NU Las Vegas Betting Line

[No Chores]

The current line in Vegas ranges between Stanford -12.5 - 11.5. I'd take the 'Cats getting the 12.5, despite all the unknowns. For now, though, Vegas obviously wants you to take the 'Cats.

 

[rmndcat]

I thought it opened at -10. Can only wonder at what's driving the movement--starting a frosh QB? mediocre pre-season predictions? If I were betting, I agree, I'd take the Cats and the points.

 

[Fitz51]

Vegas sets lines to get 50% on each side. That's how they make money. They don't want you to take the 'Cats (or the Cardinal, for that matter), and if people start taking them en masse, the line will move to -12, -11.5, -11...

 

[rmndcat]

I know the lines adjust to maintain equilibrium, but presumably they are reflecting the market demand and so the question was directed at the market psychology. Of course, that assumes some rationality to the market. The question was prompted by the fact that the line had been pretty stable up until this week.

 

[ricko654321]

Vegas sets lines to get 50% on each side. That's how they make money. They don't want you to take the 'Cats (or the Cardinal, for that matter), and if people start taking them en masse, the line will move to -12, -11.5, -11...

That's not entirely true. Though the other person wasn't accurate either. They set it at what they think is fair value. And then accept the skew of bets to some extent, but move the line if it gets too egregious. Usually it's best for Vegas if the underdog covers but doesn't win. The public tends to overbet the favorites, though when they do bet dogs they often bet moneyline.

 

[Fitz51]

That's not entirely true. Though the other person wasn't accurate either. They set it at what they think is fair value. And then accept the skew of bets to some extent, but move the line if it gets too egregious. Usually it's best for Vegas if the underdog covers but doesn't win. The public tends to overbet the favorites, though when they do bet dogs they often bet moneyline.

I am being unclear because I'm trying to be brief, but the short of it is they set a line at where they feel they'll get 50% of the total cash wagered in bets on each side - so yes, fair value. Mind you, all bets have vig, so a bet at either -12.5 on STAN or +12.5 on NU is $110 to win $100.

Fo simplicity's sake, if Vegas gets 2,000 bets on the game, all at $110 and all at the same 12.5 line), and the bets fall in at exactly 50% or 1,000 on each side...

Vegas pays out 1,000 bettors $100 each = $10,0000 loss
Vegas collects from 1,000 bettors $110 each = $110,000 profit
Total = Vegas wins $10,000 *no matter which team covers*

That is a very simple way of looking at it, but it's accurate as described.

 

[IGNORE2]

I am being unclear because I'm trying to be brief, but the short of it is they set a line at where they feel they'll get 50% of the total cash wagered in bets on each side - so yes, fair value. Mind you, all bets have vig, so a bet at either -12.5 on STAN or +12.5 on NU is $110 to win $100.

Fo simplicity's sake, if Vegas gets 2,000 bets on the game, all at $110 and all at the same 12.5 line), and the bets fall in at exactly 50% or 1,000 on each side...

Vegas pays out 1,000 bettors $100 each = $10,0000 loss
Vegas collects from 1,000 bettors $110 each = $110,000 profit
Total = Vegas wins $10,000 *no matter which team covers*

That is a very simple way of looking at it, but it's accurate as described.

Not quite how it works in real life. I'm offering NU plus 12 currently.

 

[Fitz51]

Not quite how it works in real life. I'm offering NU plus 12 currently.

Correct. Mass oversimplification.