Strongest and weakest bubbles ever according to Kenpom

[Sec.112]

Well, since 2002.

For those of you with a subscription to the Athletic, Pomeroy analyzed the at-large selections for every tournament since 2002. The complete post is worth a look. He took the five worst teams in each field according to his ratings and ranked each season based on the group’s average adjusted efficiency margin.

His lesson from the exercise is "that there really isn’t much difference in the quality of the bubble from one year to the next. And no matter how weak the back of the field appears to be, the last teams to get in are far from pushovers, as the long-term success of 12-seeds against 5-seeds attests. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, just four times has a 12-seed failed to win a game. And going back to 2002, about one-third of the 12-seeds have been at-large teams."

The weakest bubble since 2002:

3. 2002
2. 2005
1. 2012

The strongest back ends of the field:

3. 2017 (HEY!! What do you know!! Look at that!)
2. 2015
1. 2010

Discuss amongst yourselves.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Ridiculous that the Big 12, which has 10 teams, is projected to put 8 teams in the field. Oklahoma lost in the opening round of their conference tournament; Oklahoma does not deserve to be rewarded for their collapse in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, they're saying that MTSU, which has an RPI in the 20s, will be left out of the field if they don't win the CUSA Tournament. MTSU has proven that they belong in the field by winning a game in the NCAA Tourney each of the last two seasons.

Mid-majors really get the shaft; we have to make room for 80% of the Big 12 teams.

 

[MysticCat]

Ridiculous that the Big 12, which has 10 teams, is projected to put 8 teams in the field. Oklahoma lost in the opening round of their conference tournament; Oklahoma does not deserve to be rewarded for their collapse in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, they're saying that MTSU, which has an RPI in the 20s, will be left out of the field if they don't win the CUSA Tournament. MTSU has proven that they belong in the field by winning a game in the NCAA Tourney each of the last two seasons.

Mid-majors really get the shaft; we have to make room for 80% of the Big 12 teams.

MTSU has proven that they belong in the field by winning a game in the NCAA Tourney each of the last two seasons.

Well that’s completely irrelevant.

But the problem lately is the committee has a slighty different focus every year. They continuously say RPI is THE factor but find ways to skirt that each year in favor of bigger programs. See Monmouth.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

Ridiculous that the Big 12, which has 10 teams, is projected to put 8 teams in the field. Oklahoma lost in the opening round of their conference tournament; Oklahoma does not deserve to be rewarded for their collapse in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, they're saying that MTSU, which has an RPI in the 20s, will be left out of the field if they don't win the CUSA Tournament. MTSU has proven that they belong in the field by winning a game in the NCAA Tourney each of the last two seasons.

Mid-majors really get the shaft; we have to make room for 80% of the Big 12 teams.

Agreed- Oklahoma making it would really be a travesty. They are a shell of what they were two months ago. They have run out of steam and do not deserve to be in the field. They won only 4 out of their last 15 games, and their last five losses are by double digits. There are many more deserving teams, including several mid-majors.

It's funny because I remember that when Oklahoma beat us, a couple posters said that Oklahoma was the best team we'd play all year. Uh, no.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Agreed- Oklahoma making it would really be a travesty. They are a shell of what they were two months ago. They have run out of steam and do not deserve to be in the field. They won only 4 out of their last 15 games, and their last five losses are by double digits. There are many more deserving teams, including several mid-majors.

It's funny because I remember that when Oklahoma beat us, a couple posters said that Oklahoma was the best team we'd play all year. Uh, no.

They looked like the Golden State Warriors against us.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

They looked like the Golden State Warriors against us.

Fair point. Counterpoint...We also played like the Generals on occasion this year, that game being one of those times.

 

[ashley0623]

Ridiculous that the Big 12, which has 10 teams, is projected to put 8 teams in the field. Oklahoma lost in the opening round of their conference tournament; Oklahoma does not deserve to be rewarded for their collapse in the latter half of the season. Meanwhile, they're saying that MTSU, which has an RPI in the 20s, will be left out of the field if they don't win the CUSA Tournament. MTSU has proven that they belong in the field by winning a game in the NCAA Tourney each of the last two seasons.

Mid-majors really get the shaft; we have to make room for 80% of the Big 12 teams.

The problem is also double standards regarding injuries. Last weekend, Jerry Palm was saying how Loyola has no shot if they lost the MVC final. Loyola is 27-5 with a 25 RPI and 40 KenPom and win at Florida (NC State bought them out). They went 25-2 with Custer and 2-3 without.

Tonight, he’s making a case for Notre Dame to get leniency because of Bonzie Colson. Then you have that Syracuse team a few years ago where the committee chair openly admitted the Orange would be judged differently because Boeheim was suspended X number of games. The committee rewarded him for violating ncaa rules.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Agreed- Oklahoma making it would really be a travesty. They are a shell of what they were two months ago. They have run out of steam and do not deserve to be in the field. They won only 4 out of their last 15 games, and their last five losses are by double digits. There are many more deserving teams, including several mid-majors.

It's funny because I remember that when Oklahoma beat us, a couple posters said that Oklahoma was the best team we'd play all year. Uh, no.

Well, Oklahoma made it, and not even one of the last four in. Unbelievable.

As expected, MTSU did not make the cut. But neither did St. Mary's, which genuinely surprised me.

 

[NJCat]

Well, Oklahoma made it, and not even one of the last four in. Unbelievable.

As expected, MTSU did not make the cut. But neither did St. Mary's, which genuinely surprised me.

Much as I admire Trae Young, Nebraska and PSU were playing much better the second half of the season than OU. Either of them would have had a better shot to win a game in the Tournament.

 

[ricko654321]

Well, Oklahoma made it, and not even one of the last four in. Unbelievable.

As expected, MTSU did not make the cut. But neither did St. Mary's, which genuinely surprised me.

I think the prospect of a second round Trae Young vs Duke matchup was too compelling for TV purposes to pass up.

But of course they never consider those factors when seeding teams. And the Arizona 4 / Kentucky 5 matchup in Virginia's region (who got screwed btw) is entirely incidental.

MSU got an awfully tough path too - first of all don't understand how they are a 4 loss team and are seeded behind 11 loss UNC (among others). Which, btw, they beat. By 18. UNC has lots of pretty good wins, but not enough to overcome all their losses. And then to boot they get Duke as their 2 seed.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

Well, Oklahoma made it, and not even one of the last four in. Unbelievable.

As expected, MTSU did not make the cut. But neither did St. Mary's, which genuinely surprised me.

Shows how much they value the whole resume, which I don’t necessarily disagree with.

But unless they do a 180, hard to see Oklahoma even winning their first game. The last month of the year, in my opinion, they were the worst team in the Big 12.

In other news, Syracuse making it is another one that’s a head scratcher to me. They very well could win some games cause of the talent and weird defense they run, but that resume is very questionable. I would have liked to have seen MTSU and St Mary’s in instead.

 

[Hungry Jack]

They looked like the Golden State Warriors against us.

Sooner or later, they were going to crash.

 

[Walker Fan]

UNC has 10 and not 11 losses. MSU did get the benefit of playing Rounds 1 and 2 in Detroit which will be home games for MSU. So don't cry for Sparty. If they advance to the Sweet 16, they would play Duke who beat MSU earlier this season. UNC beat Duke 2 out of the 3 games and has more quality wins than MSU who lost twice to UM and OSU. They did beat up on the non-tournament Big 10 teams and won the regular season Big 10 crown. The ACC was a superior conference than the Big 10 and as a result UNC had more Quadrant 1 wins (meaning wins over top 50 teams) and that is why they have a No. 2 seed and MSU is a No. 3 seed.

 

[ricko654321]

UNC has 10 and not 11 losses. MSU did get the benefit of playing Rounds 1 and 2 in Detroit which will be home games for MSU. So don't cry for Sparty. If they advance to the Sweet 16, they would play Duke who beat MSU earlier this season. UNC beat Duke 2 out of the 3 games and has more quality wins than MSU who lost twice to UM and OSU. They did beat up on the non-tournament Big 10 teams and won the regular season Big 10 crown. The ACC was a superior conference than the Big 10 and as a result UNC had more Quadrant 1 wins (meaning wins over top 50 teams) and that is why they have a No. 2 seed and MSU is a No. 3 seed.

ok 10 losses (one of them to Wofford!!) vs 4.... the point stands. MSU has wins over UNC and Purdue, if they had more games against good teams they probably would have won more of them. And of UNC's Q1 wins (yes they have a lot), the 2 wins over Duke are really the only ones that are truly impressive. Other than that they have 1 win over Clemson and a whole bunch of wins (to go with a fair number of losses also) against middling to decent ACC teams.

Agreed the ACC is a far better conference than B1G this year, but that does not justify UNC being seeded outright ahead of MSU despite having 6 more (or 2.5x!) the number of losses. and it's not like MSU limped into the finish either, outside of a loss to Mich in the BTT they played very well in the last month of the season, their slow patch was for a week in the middle of the conference season.

 

[ricko654321]

Shows how much they value the whole resume, which I don’t necessarily disagree with.

But unless they do a 180, hard to see Oklahoma even winning their first game. The last month of the year, in my opinion, they were the worst team in the Big 12.

In other news, Syracuse making it is another one that’s a head scratcher to me. They very well could win some games cause of the talent and weird defense they run, but that resume is very questionable. I would have liked to have seen MTSU and St Mary’s in instead.

agree on MTSU and St Mary's. Don't think Oklahoma should have gotten in but oh well. Syracuse would have been another one that could have been excluded.