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Sunday @ IU: CRUCIAL

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NJcatsfan

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Nov 21, 2004
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If we win last night, we are in great shape. We know how that went, and why. Looking ahead, I think Sunday could be the most important game of the season. NU will be on short rest and licking their wounds from that disgrace in NJ. NU, like everyone else in the league, reallllllyyyyyy struggles on the road.

A win at IU, with the Hoosiers being down overall, rights the ship and steadies the trajectory heading toward selection Sunday.

A loss at IU, and things get dicey. The likelihood of losing out on the road (with just one conference win away from home) becomes very realistic/probable. And the pressure to sweep the remaining home games becomes immense.

Look, this group could surprise us @MD or @MSU, but I’d hate to be counting on winning either of those. And this group could run into a hot shooting night for Mich, Iowa, or Minny, and lose.

Sunday at Indiana: Massive, massive game. Gut check time for these guys, whose last THREE road B10 games have resulted in gut-wrenching losses, two in OT. Losing Ty and then what went down in NJ both suck. We can wallow in anger and self pity here. But the guys can’t. Too much at stake. They can still do this. Will they?

I am nervous. Go ‘Cats
 
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There are a lot of reasons to not feel confident, so I'll point out some hopeful ones:

-Unlike last time we had 2 days or rest, this time there was no OT
-This time we get to rest on a no classes day, Saturday
-Langborg is rested
-Their backcourt is not athletic and fast, which is where we really struggle
-We are favored with a 55% chance of winning
 
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Does the committee look at home v road outside of its impact on the NET calculation?

(I realize of course that there are no rules, and that they change every year as justification for whatever decision they had just made.)
 
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As of now, NU still a 9 seed in Lundardi's bracket against Virginia. East Coast Wildcats will like his projection as he has the Cats in Brooklyn. Though they would then have to play #1 UConn if they win their opener.
 
LIked the look of Mullins against Rutgers. Which raises the inevitable queation: Should Collins have played him more earlier in the season? In tribute to his athleticism, energy, and so he could have played the big three (Boo, Barnhizer and Langborg and Berry) fewer minutes?
 
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NJcatsfan said:
If we win last night, we are in great shape. We know how that went, and why. Looking ahead, I think Sunday could be the most important game of the season. NU will be on short rest and licking their wounds from that disgrace in NJ. NU, like everyone else in the league, reallllllyyyyyy struggles on the road.

A win at IU, with the Hoosiers being down overall, rights the ship and steadies the trajectory heading toward selection Sunday.

A loss at IU, and things get dicey. The likelihood of losing out on the road (with just one conference win away from home) becomes very realistic/probable. And the pressure to sweep the remaining home games becomes immense.

Look, this group could surprise us @MD or @MSU, but I’d hate to be counting on winning either of those. And this group could run into a hot shooting night for Mich, Iowa, or Minny, and lose.

Sunday at Indiana: Massive, massive game. Gut check time for these guys, whose last THREE road B10 games have resulted in gut-wrenching losses, two in OT. Losing Ty and then what went down in NJ both suck. We can wallow in anger and self pity here. But the guys can’t. Too much at stake. They can still do this. Will they?

I am nervous. Go ‘Cats
Click to expand...
Well said, as always. We have to win that game or it is going to be a very nervous Selection Sunday. But we can and should win it if you look at what we have and what they have. Let’s get it!
 
TheC said:
As of now, NU still a 9 seed in Lundardi's bracket against Virginia. East Coast Wildcats will like his projection as he has the Cats in Brooklyn. Though they would then have to play #1 UConn if they win their opener.
Click to expand...
Sports Illustrated has us as a 11 seed
 
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NJcatsfan said:
If we win last night, we are in great shape. We know how that went, and why. Looking ahead, I think Sunday could be the most important game of the season. NU will be on short rest and licking their wounds from that disgrace in NJ. NU, like everyone else in the league, reallllllyyyyyy struggles on the road.

A win at IU, with the Hoosiers being down overall, rights the ship and steadies the trajectory heading toward selection Sunday.

A loss at IU, and things get dicey. The likelihood of losing out on the road (with just one conference win away from home) becomes very realistic/probable. And the pressure to sweep the remaining home games becomes immense.

Look, this group could surprise us @MD or @MSU, but I’d hate to be counting on winning either of those. And this group could run into a hot shooting night for Mich, Iowa, or Minny, and lose.

Sunday at Indiana: Massive, massive game. Gut check time for these guys, whose last THREE road B10 games have resulted in gut-wrenching losses, two in OT. Losing Ty and then what went down in NJ both suck. We can wallow in anger and self pity here. But the guys can’t. Too much at stake. They can still do this. Will they?

I am nervous. Go ‘Cats
Click to expand...
I was preparing to post this same post. NU MUST win at least one on the road, and Indiana would be it, and then win the remaining at home. Hopefully no more Ref prejudice
 
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Yeah, I think Cats have to win out at home and then pick up another road win somewhere, and IU looks like the best bet remaining. Our last three losses have been heartbreaking as they came down to failures to close out for the Cats, imho.
 
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EagerFan said:
Yeah, I think Cats have to win out at home and then pick up another road win somewhere, and IU looks like the best bet remaining. Our last three losses have been heartbreaking as they came down to failures to close out for the Cats, imho.
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Rutgers has actually become pretty good. At least good enough to beat a hobbled NU team by 3. And Wisconsin by 22.
 
diblakley said:
LIked the look of Mullins against Rutgers. Which raises the inevitable queation: Should Collins have played him more earlier in the season?
Click to expand...
Collins has a quick hook. The games Mullins played earlier, he made mistakes and was immediately yanked. NU didn't suffer from a lack of Mullins, the kid kept working and was ready when his time came. Seems to me like this has worked out OK.
 
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EagerFan said:
Yeah, I think Cats have to win out at home and then pick up another road win somewhere, and IU looks like the best bet remaining. Our last three losses have been heartbreaking as they came down to failures to close out for the Cats, imho.
Click to expand...
The failure to win some of those close games on the road has to be at least partially blamed on fatigue. Not blaming Collins but our lack of depth is somewhat concerning. Hopefully Mullins will earn some time in the rotation and fill in some minutes as a replacement for Berry. Let’s win against IU, even without our good luck charm Miller Kopp playing.
 
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DaCat said:
The failure to win some of those close games on the road has to be at least partially blamed on fatigue. Not blaming Collins but our lack of depth is somewhat concerning. Hopefully Mullins will earn some time in the rotation and fill in some minutes as a replacement for Berry. Let’s win against IU, even without our good luck charm Miller Kopp playing.
Click to expand...
It’s absolutely true that we have some guys that play a ton of minutes. But, some of the comments about lack of depth act as if all the other teams go 10 deep. Most teams go 8 deep at most.

It’s not like other teams aren’t tired at the end of games also.
 
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wildcatpn said:
It’s absolutely true that we have some guys that play a ton of minutes. But, some of the comments about lack of depth act as if all the other teams go 10 deep. Most teams go 8 deep at most.

It’s not like other teams aren’t tired at the end of games also.
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A valid point, but Buie and Barnhizer are tied for most minutes played in the conference at 913 each, and Langborg is 9th. With Berry out now, that problem is exacerbated. Hopefully Mullins and Clayton will step up to help out as we go down the stretch.
 
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DaCat said:
The failure to win some of those close games on the road has to be at least partially blamed on fatigue. Not blaming Collins but our lack of depth is somewhat concerning. Hopefully Mullins will earn some time in the rotation and fill in some minutes as a replacement for Berry. Let’s win against IU, even without our good luck charm Miller Kopp playing.
Click to expand...
Miller was every opposing teams good luck charm.
 
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EagerFan said:
Yeah, I think Cats have to win out at home and then pick up another road win somewhere, and IU looks like the best bet remaining. Our last three losses have been heartbreaking as they came down to failures to close out for the Cats, imho.
Click to expand...
To be a lock, sure.
But ... remember, the Cats aren't judged by a set number of wins, they're judged by the other bubble teams. 11-9 may indeed be good enough.
 
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DaCat said:
A valid point, but Buie and Barnhizer are tied for most minutes played in the conference at 913 each, and Langborg is 9th. With Berry out now, that problem is exacerbated. Hopefully Mullins and Clayton will step up to help out as we go down the stretch.
Click to expand...
We probably have the most overtime games in the conference.
 
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5 of our 6 losses on the road were in tight, winnable games, some where we had late leads. Playing our starters 35-40 plus minutes in these games may have hurt us in these crucial games. Collins consistent unwillingness to develop the bench by giving them 3-5 minutes in early games where we had good leads has always bothered me. As a result he had no confidence to give them any minutes in Big 10 games. We are now seeing the results. It has been a really fun season on the home court and painful on the road. I look forward to a big win this afternoon. GO CATS!
 
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purplejustice said:
5 of our 6 losses on the road were in tight, winnable games, some where we had late leads. Playing our starters 35-40 plus minutes in these games may have hurt us in these crucial games. Collins consistent unwillingness to develop the bench by giving them 3-5 minutes in early games where we had good leads has always bothered me. As a result he had no confidence to give them any minutes in Big 10 games. We are now seeing the results. It has been a really fun season on the home court and painful on the road. I look forward to a big win this afternoon. GO CATS!
Click to expand...
This. This right here.

Gragg should give CCC another ultimatum. Right @Purple Pile Driver ?

Hoosier daddy!!
 
I don't think there was a game that was not referred to, on this board, by someone, as crucial or a must-win. Maybe the game @ Purdue.

We need to win another 4 games to know we are in. 3 at home and 1 away would be the most logical. If not 3 at home, 2 on the road.

Yeah, I'd love to win today and clinch the "all we have to do now is hold serve at home". But say we lose today, man, look at the schedule, other than MSU, we don't exactly have a nightmare remaining on the calendar.

@Indiana
Michigan - undisputed worst B1G team
@Maryland - reeling
Iowa - not setting world on fire
@MSU - tough. We've been ok at pissing off Izzo
Minnesota - not great no terrible as they said in Chernobyl

Today we are 55% likely to win but 2.5 dogs in the ESPN published numbers
 
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purplejustice said:
5 of our 6 losses on the road were in tight, winnable games, some where we had late leads. Playing our starters 35-40 plus minutes in these games may have hurt us in these crucial games. Collins consistent unwillingness to develop the bench by giving them 3-5 minutes in early games where we had good leads has always bothered me. As a result he had no confidence to give them any minutes in Big 10 games. We are now seeing the results. It has been a really fun season on the home court and painful on the road. I look forward to a big win this afternoon. GO CATS!
Click to expand...
We are 8-6, behind Purdue and Illinois, right with Wisconsin and MSU. I don’t believe we are significantly underachieving, especially with the Rutgers loss being such an officiating travesty. Much like Hunger, Mullins will very likely and naturally revert to a mean level of play where he struggles to the level he shows in practice, where game time is earned. And Collins is smart enough to know who deserves to play; 3-5 game minutes is meaningless to prepare someone compared to hours and days of practices.
 
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The rest for the starters is equally important to the game time experience for the bench players. Putting players in with 1 minute to go so they hold the ball while the clock runs down is insulting to the bench players who show up for practice.
 
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purplejustice said:
The rest for the starters is equally important to the game time experience for the bench players. Putting players in with 1 minute to go so they hold the ball while the clock runs down is insulting to the bench players who show up for practice.
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Collins gets them some rest via subbing techniques; we’re just the least deep team in the conference and playing our key guys gives us the best chance of winning. Remember we led by double digits in Rutgers before Langborg went out; Mullins, Clayton, etc. still lost that lead.

Every coach gives bench guys a minute or so at ends of games in blowouts. We don’t have many of those. And maybe Collins gives one minute less on average on that rare occasion; not an issue of any concern in my view.

It’s interesting how many used to criticize Collins for subbing too much and now too little…the makeup of the team is what dictates it.
 
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purplejustice said:
5 of our 6 losses on the road were in tight, winnable games, some where we had late leads. Playing our starters 35-40 plus minutes in these games may have hurt us in these crucial games. Collins consistent unwillingness to develop the bench by giving them 3-5 minutes in early games where we had good leads has always bothered me. As a result he had no confidence to give them any minutes in Big 10 games. We are now seeing the results. It has been a really fun season on the home court and painful on the road. I look forward to a big win this afternoon. GO CATS!
Click to expand...
Couldn’t disagree more. It sounds great in theory, but there is a small problem with this thought process, we just don’t have enough players that you can sub in that can play at a D1 level right now. If you look at the records of just about every B1G team, they too have suffered very close losses that their fanbase is lamenting just like you are. The Coaches have been exceptional this year. The players on the court have been exceptional this year.
 
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NUCat320 said:
Does the committee look at home v road outside of its impact on the NET calculation?

(I realize of course that there are no rules, and that they change every year as justification for whatever decision they had just made.)
Click to expand...
Quad rating of the game is affected. Because on the road it is probably a Quad 2 but if at home might be quad 3.
 
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