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SupEr Conference talks have resumed. You were warned.

My two cents is OSU is not going anywhere. They are currently the top dog in the conference. They would routinely be second best or worse in The SEC.

Any new additions to The B1G would be most likely be north of The Ohio River. My guesses are dependent on whether the conference grows to 16 or 20 schools.
Notre Dame they would have to realize a need to be a full member of a conference.
Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt would be practical geographical fits. Syracuse to build New York’s presence. And the final piece would either be Missouri or Colorado leaving their present situations.
 
My two cents is OSU is not going anywhere. They are currently the top dog in the conference. They would routinely be second best or worse in The SEC.

Any new additions to The B1G would be most likely be north of The Ohio River. My guesses are dependent on whether the conference grows to 16 or 20 schools.
Notre Dame they would have to realize a need to be a full member of a conference.
Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt would be practical geographical fits. Syracuse to build New York’s presence. And the final piece would either be Missouri or Colorado leaving their present situations.
There’s no way Missouri leaves the SEC if we invite Kansas. We don’t need both and Missouri has a good thing going in what is currently the premier football and baseball conference.

Iowa State also doesn’t make as mich sense. They’ve historically been a mediocre team in football and we again already have the premier Iowm team (despite @hawkit3113 and the like; Jk).

Pitt makes sense, and really so if PSU bolts for the ACC (which they may do with Notre Dame). And maybe Syracuse if they truly add more NY televisions and another blue blood basketball program. But those two can only join if the ACC implodes per @zeek’s posts.

Again, do not assume OSU, Michigan, and PSU are afraid to leave. If the other superconferences form as is being rumored (SEC and PAC20) and it looks like the SEC will absorb the premier ACC teams in a few years, well would they want the scraps of the ACC and Big12 to eat into their revenues? Nope.
 
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CURRENT CONFERENCE BROADCAST AGREEMENTS (aka Grant-of-Rights)

*ACC with ABC/ESPN runs through 2036
*SEC with ABC/ESPN runs through 2034 (deal with CBS ends in 2023)
*ND with NBC runs through 2025
*PAC-12 with FOX, ABC/ESPN runs through 2024
*Big XII with FOX, ABC/ESPN runs through 2025
*B1G with CBS (Basketball), FOX & ABC/ESPN runs through 2024
This. This right here.

But what will OSU do if it becomes apparent that Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame, and the other premier ACC teams are intent on joining the SEC20 when they’re able? Our TV contract expires in 2024. And if the PAC20 is formed as rumored, why would they merge with the B1G in 10 years?

Will splitting their profits with the worst half of the ACC be appealing in a few years?

Make no mistake about it, there are a lot of multilateral talks going on by the powers at the power schools. Nothing may come of it. Or the college football landscape could he transformed for decades. Follow the money.
 
It will be very interesting how the B1G handles the upcoming Grant of Rights Negotiations
It will be more interesting to see how the “top half” of the conference want to handle them, which will determine the B1G. From what I understand they’re acting like free agents. God bless free markets & Capitalism at work.
 
So, I've been off the board travelling for over a week.
If Clemson and FSU go to SEC, then the Big TEN should grab UVA and UNC. Leave TSISB out in the cold after the ACC breaks up.
 
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So, I've been off the board travelling for over a week.
If Clemson and FSU go to SEC, then the Big TEN should grab UVA and UNC. Leave TSISB out in the cold after the ACC breaks up.
That would be ideal, but it would require the ACC to essentially disband if it is to happen anytime soon. The odds of that are lowering - but not impossible.
 
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Who knows what to make of these so called superconferences? At some point, it is going to hurt the teams jumping ship to join a new conference if they are jumping ship to run away from the smaller dogs in their existing conference. After all, part of the reason some of the Bigger Dogs are the Bigger Dog is because there are smaller dogs in their conference. If there was one conference made of just Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Miami (FL) and USC; then only some of those teams could rise on to become the new face of their conference and others are likely to fall to become bottom dwellers. Meanwhile, while some conferences may fold if the Big Dogs left, then other conferences may stay strong and New Big Dogs may rise up.

Some are already projecting Texas, in particular, to become an also ran in the SEC. Texas has not won a conference title in over 10 years and has suffered 4 losing seasons since 2010 and seem to be hovering at a ceiling of about an 8-4 type team in the past decade. And to be honest, even though Texas has had its moments, have they ever really been elite for an extended period like USC in the PAC-X or Alabama in the SEC or Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten. Now Texas is leaving the Big 12 and they are supposed to fight to be the Kings of the SEC? At some point, some of these Big Dogs need to recognize that they got a good thing going and instead of looking to jump ship, they should be looking at how they could make their conference better and/or more lucrative.
 
Who knows what to make of these so called superconferences? At some point, it is going to hurt the teams jumping ship to join a new conference if they are jumping ship to run away from the smaller dogs in their existing conference. After all, part of the reason some of the Bigger Dogs are the Bigger Dog is because there are smaller dogs in their conference. If there was one conference made of just Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Miami (FL) and USC; then only some of those teams could rise on to become the new face of their conference and others are likely to fall to become bottom dwellers. Meanwhile, while some conferences may fold if the Big Dogs left, then other conferences may stay strong and New Big Dogs may rise up.

Some are already projecting Texas, in particular, to become an also ran in the SEC. Texas has not won a conference title in over 10 years and has suffered 4 losing seasons since 2010 and seem to be hovering at a ceiling of about an 8-4 type team in the past decade. And to be honest, even though Texas has had its moments, have they ever really been elite for an extended period like USC in the PAC-X or Alabama in the SEC or Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten. Now Texas is leaving the Big 12 and they are supposed to fight to be the Kings of the SEC? At some point, some of these Big Dogs need to recognize that they got a good thing going and instead of looking to jump ship, they should be looking at how they could make their conference better and/or more lucrative.
Yeah every conference needs a middle class.

There have to be Ole Miss/Miss State/Vanderbilt/Kentucky/Missouri/Arkansas to lose to the Alabamas/Oklahomas/LSUs of the world.

Same applies to the Big Ten; Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State aren't all going to win 10+ games a year if they're only playing teams like themselves.
 
They’d make sense in “the new B1G” as Rutgers. Probably more so.

You would take Wake Forest if it meant the B1G got the rest of the ACC teams we wanted, wouldn’t you?

No, because having 3-4 schools in North Carolina means a lower payout for everyone else, making such an expansion pointless.

There's a reason why the ACC has a considerably lower payout than the B1G.

None other than Jay Bilas advocated for the ACC to talk to the SEC about a merger (why would the SEC even give that a thought? They would just raid the best FB programs and/or flagship schools), so he's feeling nervous for the long-term prospects of the ACC as we know it today.

Notwithstanding the alliance talks among the B1G, ACC and PAC - which is just a reactionary response to the SEC move, wouldn't be surprised if there is further movement ahead (even if it is a decade or so away).
 
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No, because having 3-4 schools in North Carolina means a lower payout for everyone else, making such an expansion pointless.

There's a reason why the ACC has a considerably lower payout than the B1G.

None other than Jay Bilas advocated for the ACC to talk to the SEC about a merger (why would the SEC even give that a thought? They would just raid the best FB programs and/or flagship schools), so he's feeling nervous for the long-term prospects of the ACC as we know it today.

Notwithstanding the alliance talks among the B1G, ACC and PAC - which is just a reactionary response to the SEC move, wouldn't be surprised if there is further movement ahead (even if it is a decade or so away).
Consider pricing elasticity or inelasticity. North Carolina is booming - in both economic and population regards - and the B1G would “own it” from a collegiate sports perspective for the next 50-100 years if they add UNC, NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest (in that order). This point is hard to debate.

What is the reason that the ACC has a lower payout than the B1G? Please explain. We don’t live in a static world, so I find your (and others’) claim that the B1G will maintain its dominant perch “just because” to be meritless. That is not realistic.

And who cares what Jay Bilas says. He’s just another ESPN talking head. If the B1G waits another decade to “make their move”, then the B1G could be screwed.
 
No, because having 3-4 schools in North Carolina means a lower payout for everyone else, making such an expansion pointless.

There's a reason why the ACC has a considerably lower payout than the B1G.

None other than Jay Bilas advocated for the ACC to talk to the SEC about a merger (why would the SEC even give that a thought? They would just raid the best FB programs and/or flagship schools), so he's feeling nervous for the long-term prospects of the ACC as we know it today.

Notwithstanding the alliance talks among the B1G, ACC and PAC - which is just a reactionary response to the SEC move, wouldn't be surprised if there is further movement ahead (even if it is a decade or so away).
Agreed.

This alliance is mainly just to try to protect the 3 conferences interests vis-a-vis the SEC for the short/medium-term.

But as we get to 2032 (~4 years before the ACC GoR is up), there will be many schools in the ACC considering their positions given the SEC/Big Ten will be earning significantly more money from TV. That's likely when we see schools trying to get invites to those two unless something else intervenes.
 
I love Northwestern fans. They will pontificate on anything and everything.
 
I love Northwestern fans. They will pontificate on anything and everything.
I heard from a buddy that Temple and WVU were in serious consideration for invitations to the B1G *until* the rest of the Big 12 stayed together… for now.

Temple makes as much sense as Rutgers did back when they joined. And think of WVU as “Nebraska Light”.

This new conference alliance between the ACC/B1G/PAC12 should help alleviate any realignment… for a few years.
 
I heard from a buddy that Temple and WVU were in serious consideration for invitations to the B1G *until* the rest of the Big 12 stayed together… for now.

Temple makes as much sense as Rutgers did back when they joined. And think of WVU as “Nebraska Light”.

This new conference alliance between the ACC/B1G/PAC12 should help alleviate any realignment… for a few years.
Temple and WVU don't add new TV markets... Rutgers added New Jersey (half of which is in the NYC TV market and other half of which is in the Philly market).

Both of their TV markets are spoken for by Penn State (WVU - Pittsburgh and Temple - Philly).

WVU isn't enough of a brand to justify itself on that alone.

Got to add territory or something else to justify that $60 million.
 
My two cents is OSU is not going anywhere. They are currently the top dog in the conference. They would routinely be second best or worse in The SEC.

Any new additions to The B1G would be most likely be north of The Ohio River. My guesses are dependent on whether the conference grows to 16 or 20 schools.
Notre Dame they would have to realize a need to be a full member of a conference.
Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt would be practical geographical fits. Syracuse to build New York’s presence. And the final piece would either be Missouri or Colorado leaving their present situations.
Looks like the bigten will be alot weaker and non compete like the mac is to us, thats how our nasty sports league will be if we add west virginia and temple after adding weak darlings rutgers and maryland. I always watch the cats but having more weak ass additions will turn me into watching sec football instead of psu against temple or west virginia against rutgers..peuw
 
Temple and WVU don't add new TV markets... Rutgers added New Jersey (half of which is in the NYC TV market and other half of which is in the Philly market).

Both of their TV markets are spoken for by Penn State (WVU - Pittsburgh and Temple - Philly).

WVU isn't enough of a brand to justify itself on that alone.

Got to add territory or something else to justify that $60 million.
WVU would give us the entire state of West Virginia and their relatively devoted fans. I doubt we have many B1G fans in that state currently.

And Temple is a hedge against PSU potentially leaving for the ACC (SEC would be a distant second). Rutgers has a very strong presence in NYC and NJ - but not so much Philly / Pennsylvania.

And with Temple, PSU, and Maryland we’d dominate the Mid-Atlantic. Especially as the ACC seems off limits.

Given the inelasticity of B1G streaming, those two fan bases could pay more to watch their teams and theoretically raise enough revenue to justify adding them.
 
WVU would give us the entire state of West Virginia and their relatively devoted fans. I doubt we have many B1G fans in that state currently.

And Temple is a hedge against PSU potentially leaving for the ACC (SEC would be a distant second). Rutgers has a very strong presence in NYC and NJ - but not so much Philly / Pennsylvania.

And with Temple, PSU, and Maryland we’d dominate the Mid-Atlantic. Especially as the ACC seems off limits.

Given the inelasticity of B1G streaming, those two fan bases could pay more to watch their teams and theoretically raise enough revenue to justify adding them.
Temple adds nothing; virtually no fans; no new eyeballs, no national brand, nothing. You would want any other Big Ten team playing games instead of Temple.
Their games would all be on BTN and worth nothing because we already produce enough content for BTN to fill its time slots.

Seriously, there is no way to get to $60 million with Temple to justify that TV payout annually. Temple probably gets only a few hundred thousand to a million from its current TV deal. If there was some massive pot of money to be unlocked there, it would have been.

WVU got passed many times before because West Virginia is a tiny state and its tv market is part of Pittsburgh (which is already dominated by the Big Ten due to Penn State). WVU might have a decently strong fanbase, but that's not enough. It doesn't really have a national brand like Nebraska does.

Nebraska games pull national eyeballs when they play a big name like Ohio State or Wisconsin or Penn State or Michigan. That's what the Big Ten wanted.

WVU doesn't do that. If it did, it'd already be in the ACC or SEC.
 
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Consider pricing elasticity or inelasticity. North Carolina is booming - in both economic and population regards - and the B1G would “own it” from a collegiate sports perspective for the next 50-100 years if they add UNC, NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest (in that order). This point is hard to debate.

What is the reason that the ACC has a lower payout than the B1G? Please explain. We don’t live in a static world, so I find your (and others’) claim that the B1G will maintain its dominant perch “just because” to be meritless. That is not realistic.

And who cares what Jay Bilas says. He’s just another ESPN talking head. If the B1G waits another decade to “make their move”, then the B1G could be screwed.

NC is not CA or TX in pop., much less PA.

NC's 10.44 million is a little more than the 10.08 mi for MI and if the B1G was forming today, don't be too sure if they take both schools from MI.

PA has over 13 mi, but it never made any sense for the B1G to add Pitt.

PSU already covered the demand for the state and Pitt didn't add enough to the table to warrant a share.

Having 2 schools in NC would be pushing it (UNC, alone, would carry the state), but doubt UNC goes anywhere without Dook; 3 schools becomes problematic and 4 schools make absolutely ZERO sense financially.

It would be one thing if NCST or Wake were like ND (that would actually be a case where adding a 3rd team within a state makes sense), but neither are anywhere close to that.

You really don't know why the ACC has a lower payout than the B1G? Lol

It's pretty simple.

The ACC is mostly BB schools and not FB schools (which is why schools like FSU and Clemson have long had wandering eyes), exacerbated further by too many schools in cities (where pro sports dominate) - BC, Pitt, GT, Miami.

And while Bilas may be a talking head, he's a talking head that's more tied in with the ACC than anyone else.

WVU and Temple?

The B12 barely wanted WVU and Temple brings zero to the table.

Already have Philly market covered by PSU and now the NJ portion of the greater Philly metro area is covered by RU.

The B1G already dominates the Mid-Atlantic region with PSU, RU and UMD, and the hedge against PSU possibly leaving for the ACC was the addition of RU and UMD (PSU no longer being an outskirt).

Cuse is a much better candidate than either of those 2 schools and even it probably doesn't make the cut financial-wise.
 
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NC is not CA or TX in pop., much less PA.

NC's 10.44 million is a little more than the 10.08 mi for MI and if the B1G was forming today, don't be too sure if they take both schools from MI.

PA has over 13 mi, but it never made any sense for the B1G to add Pitt.

PSU already covered the demand for the state and Pitt didn't add enough to the table to warrant a share.

Having 2 schools in NC would be pushing it (UNC, alone, would carry the state), but doubt UNC goes anywhere without Dook; 3 schools becomes problematic and 4 schools make absolutely ZERO sense financially.

It would be one thing if NCST or Wake were like ND (that would actually be a case where adding a 3rd team within a state makes sense), but neither are anywhere close to that.

You really don't know why the ACC has a lower payout than the B1G? Lol

It's pretty simple.

The ACC is mostly BB schools and not FB schools (which is why schools like FSU and Clemson have long had wandering eyes), exacerbated further by too many schools in cities (where pro sports dominate) - BC, Pitt, GT, Miami.

And while Bilas may be a talking head, he's a talking head that's more tied in with the ACC than anyone else.

WVU and Temple?

The B12 barely wanted WVU and Temple brings zero to the table.

Already have Philly market covered by PSU and now the NJ portion of the greater Philly metro area is covered by RU.

The B1G already dominates the Mid-Atlantic region with PSU, RU and UMD, and the hedge against PSU possibly leaving for the ACC was the addition of RU and UMD (PSU no longer being an outskirt).

Cuse is a much better candidate than either of those 2 schools and even it probably doesn't make the cut financial-wise.
This is a fair and well-reasoned response and I largely agree with your analysis.

But did you notice that only the PAC12 has ruled out further expansion at this time? The ACC and B1G have been quiet. Both are trying to land Notre Dame which would necessitate one more team. That’s why the affiliation is the master move.

If ND bends the knee and joins either conference… who would be the next team in for that conference?

I’m thinking the B1G might actually have a shot at ND. Let me ask my buddy who the other one might be to make the conference a round 16.

 
This is a fair and well-reasoned response and I largely agree with your analysis.

But did you notice that only the PAC12 has ruled out further expansion at this time? The ACC and B1G have been quiet. Both are trying to land Notre Dame which would necessitate one more team. That’s why the affiliation is the master move.

If ND bends the knee and joins either conference… who would be the next team in for that conference?

I’m thinking the B1G might actually have a shot at ND. Let me ask my buddy who the other one might be to make the conference a round 16.

ND signed a contract with the ACC saying that if they join a conference for football before 2036, it has to be the ACC.

So they're stuck in place like the ACC teams.
 
ND signed a contract with the ACC saying that if they join a conference for football before 2036, it has to be the ACC.

So they're stuck in place like the ACC teams.
Again, doesn’t this affiliation concept render their agreement null and void? The ACC left them out in the cold on it.
 
How about us absorbing the PAC-14’s elite?
I think Oregon/Washington Make sense as the next 2.

Beyond that it's up to ND and if they come maybe Stanford does too.

After that you get to ACC schools in around 10-12 years.

ND is a bit of a questionmark since it's not clear what their GOR with the ACC applies to; if it's just basketball/Olympic sports then they can get out of that for cheap. If it includes football, then too much $.
 
I think Oregon/Washington Make sense as the next 2.

Beyond that it's up to ND and if they come maybe Stanford does too.

After that you get to ACC schools in around 10-12 years.

ND is a bit of a questionmark since it's not clear what their GOR with the ACC applies to; if it's just basketball/Olympic sports then they can get out of that for cheap. If it includes football, then too much $.
Oregon makes a ton of sense in the new B1G.

I’d honestly rather have Colorado than Washington. The travel is much easier, the academic profile fits, and its a growing TV market.
 
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Ending up with 2 super-conferences is being driven by Fox Sports/Newscorp and ESPN/Disney (ironically, the B1G is more ideologically aligned with Disney and the SEC, Newscorp).

Delany got some flack for having given too much to Fox when the BTN was created, but it ended up being the strategically correct move as it gave the B1G an important stake holder (something the PAC never had).

The additions of the LA schools already paying off with Apple reportedly reentering rights negotiations.


Soon after the news about USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten broke, an Apple exec called the conference with a simple message: It wanted to reengage in media-rights talks, report SBJ's John Ourand and Michael Smith. That call was emblematic of a chaotic day where media companies that had spent months finalizing how much they would pay for Big Ten rights were rushing back to the drawing board to see how the addition of two high-profile schools would change their bidding strategy.

 
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I look at that list and think "why have some of these schools over NU?" Granted, the Chicago college football TV market, which tilts toward pro sports, is largely secured with the likes of Michigan, OSU, Wiscy and Ioa, but I still think NU adds to the pie here. It would also behoove the new super conference to regularly play games in Chicago, even at smallish Ryan Field (which would almost certainly get a face lift). Do Arizona, ASU, Arkansas, Missouri, Pitt, KSU, etc. really offer that much more than NU?
I wrote part of a previous reply concerning the Chicago TV market. Yeah the potential is huge, but NU fandom is concentrated in the northern border counties of Illinois and a few border counties in Wisconsin. NU isn't a very big draw, when 90% of the state is orange country, so what does that do for the more regional TV market? NU needs to lock down a great, innovative HC ASAP and get competitive again.
 
good call
Yeah, I think we're in stasis now. I think Stanford has a path if ND ever changes their mind (which may be forced by the ACC collapsing in 2036).

FSU/Clemson to the SEC and Miami + 1 to the Big Ten are my next guesses. Those 3 are the major football brands in the ACC and Miami is AAU and a better fit for the Big Ten (Miami is a Northern cultural city and all that).

UNC and UVA I can also see as major Big Ten targets from the ACC but very difficult to read where they'd want to go.

In the end I can see 2 or 4 from the ACC (UNC, UVA, Miami + 1) and then we wait at 20 or 22 for ND to ever change their mind and join with Stanford.

ND's hand may be forced if there's no good teams to play outside the Big Ten/SEC.
 
Yeah, I think we're in stasis now. I think Stanford has a path if ND ever changes their mind (which may be forced by the ACC collapsing in 2036).

FSU/Clemson to the SEC and Miami + 1 to the Big Ten are my next guesses. Those 3 are the major football brands in the ACC and Miami is AAU and a better fit for the Big Ten (Miami is a Northern cultural city and all that).

UNC and UVA I can also see as major Big Ten targets from the ACC but very difficult to read where they'd want to go.

In the end I can see 2 or 4 from the ACC (UNC, UVA, Miami + 1) and then we wait at 20 or 22 for ND to ever change their mind and join with Stanford.

ND's hand may be forced if there's no good teams to play outside the Big Ten/SEC.
Stanford’s addition to the B1G would not be beneficial to NU. All we need is a better program with a better academic rating, in better weather to compete with. ND not great for NU either. Bad enough NU will get crushed by thd football factories.
 
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I think it's inevitable to be honest. This is where the sport is going; we just have to try to compete as we can using the Big Ten brand and our own academic brand to try to bring in the best player possible.

Obviously the Fitz exit mess has created a problem and the stadium situation is a giant overhang, but we need to figure it out and fast. By mid-2030s, the sport will be a mini-NFL in terms of competition.
 
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