The Cats as a model of consistency in conference play

[eastbaycat99]

Home record: 6-4
Road record: 6-4
First ten games: 6-4
Last ten games: 6-4

If you take away the idea that the Cats win 60% of their games in the conference, their chances of winning the BT Tournament would be a little better than 21%, which seems about right to me as a baseline.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Home record: 6-4
Road record: 6-4
First ten games: 6-4
Last ten games: 6-4

If you take away the idea that the Cats win 60% of their games in the conference, their chances of winning the BT Tournament would be a little better than 21%, which seems about right to me as a baseline.

That only works if you assume all our potential opponents are equal...

How about 55% then 50% then 40%?

That would be 11% chance to win the conference tournament championship.

 

[DaCat]

You guys are wrong.

This is ten percent luck
Twenty percent skill
Fifteen percent concentrated power of will
Five percent pleasure
Fifty percent pain
And a hundred percent reason to remember the name

 

[eastbaycat99]

That only works if you assume all our potential opponents are equal...

How about 55% then 50% then 40%?

That would be 11% chance to win the conference tournament championship.

Actually, since Cats are 5-1 against the other top 5 seeds, you could adjust that way, but th flip side is that they were .500 against the bottom 11.

 

[Figrating]

There is consistency in these numbers, but not in NU play. They are the streakiest of the streaky.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

That only works if you assume all our potential opponents are equal...

How about 55% then 50% then 40%?

That would be 11% chance to win the conference tournament championship.

Well the Cats are 4-0 against the other three double bye teams, so, purely statistically speaking, if the Cats win on Friday vs Illinois or Penn State they are a dead lock to win the tournament every time.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Well the Cats are 4-0 against the other three double bye teams, so, purely statistically speaking, if the Cats win on Friday vs Illinois or Penn State they are a dead lock to win the tournament every time.

Thats not statistics!

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Thats not statistics!

It is an absolutely flawless use of statistics and in no way a flawed assumption that past events guarantee future results

 

[PURPLECAT88]

4-0 vs. the double bye teams.
5-1 vs. the Wednesday teams.
3-7 vs. the Thursday teams.
I think you can safely draw no conclusions whatsoever from these numbers. which makes them exactly as valuable as any other numbers from this wacky B1G season. I am rooting for UofI and PSU to go to triple overtime.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Home record: 6-4
Road record: 6-4
First ten games: 6-4
Last ten games: 6-4

If you take away the idea that the Cats win 60% of their games in the conference, their chances of winning the BT Tournament would be a little better than 21%, which seems about right to me as a baseline.

The beauty of this is that it illustrates a pattern of predictability that human mind craves as it tries to simplify a complex and uncertain world. In truth, it holds little predictive value in this scenario, but, dammit, I like it.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

The beauty of this is that it illustrates a pattern of predictability that human mind craves as it tries to simplify a complex and uncertain world. In truth, it holds little predictive value in this scenario, but, dammit, I like it.