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The hot seat

GatoLouco

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Nov 14, 2019
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Indianapolis
Jeff Borzello
ESPN Staff Writer


The coaching carousel started spinning earlier than usual this season, with jobs at Penn State and Wichita State opening before the season even began and Boston College and Fordham making moves with more than a month left in the season. Wichita State has since promoted interim head coach Isaac Brown to the permanent job, but the other three positions are still open -- and they aren't the only ones.

After last year's coaching carousel saw fewer than 30 changes in a cycle impacted by the coronavirus pandemic -- as opposed to the usual 50-60 -- we're expecting a busier carousel this season. But how busy?

To get you prepared for the next two months of coaching changes, here's a look at the biggest storylines, jobs and names to watch.


Big-picture storylines to watch

1. Will it be a busy carousel?

Had you asked this question at the start of the season, I would have said no. Last spring saw the fewest coaching changes in a decade, and the financial and other challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic haven't gone away.

That said, take note of what happened in college football, where Auburn paid Gus Malzahn more than $21 million to leave and South Carolina paid Will Muschamp nearly $13 million to make a change. Granted, football is a bigger money-driver to SEC schools than basketball is at most places, but it showed that the money is there. Universities might have lost money during the past year, but many wealthy donors didn't. Some schools might give their head coaches a pass for slight underperformance during a pandemic-impacted season, but I don't expect the cycle to be as quiet as a year ago.

2. NCAA/FBI investigations

We've been discussing how the FBI and NCAA investigations into college basketball corruption might affect the coaching carousel for three-and-a-half years now, and it hasn't really made much of an impact. So it doesn't make a ton of sense to delve here into whether LSU and Will Wade or Kansas and Bill Self or anyone else will be hit with penalties this offseason. It's impossible to predict the timeline of the NCAA's investigations, and since the affected schools have backed their coaches since the initial FBI investigation was made public in September 2017, we'll continue to assume they're not going anywhere. There's one name connected to the scandal that we will discuss, but more on that later.

3. NBA opportunities

Will any college coaches leave for the NBA, or vice versa? The NBA-to-college route hasn't worked out for most schools, but the success of Juwan Howard at Michigan this season could make it an attractive option for athletic directors. On the other side, the last college-to-NBA move was John Beilein going from Michigan to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that didn't work out. But Brad Stevens has done well with the Boston Celtics -- this season's struggles notwithstanding -- so it's not an idea that's completely off the table. Given that the NBA season isn't ending until the summer, the possibility of a late move is something to keep in mind.


Jobs already open

Boston College: The Eagles got a jump start when they fired Jim Christian in mid-February. Since then, there have been a number of names linked to the job, although Richmond's Chris Mooney, Purdue assistant Micah Shrewsberry, Cleveland State's Dennis Gates and St. Bonaventure's Mark Schmidt have been mentioned consistently. The expectation is the Eagles would take a big swing at someone like John Beilein, Seton Hall's Kevin Willard or maybe Dayton's Anthony Grant before moving on to the next group. People began connecting dots to Loyola Chicago's Porter Moser, whose time with the Ramblers overlapped with that of current BC athletic director Pat Kraft, but my understanding is Moser is not interested in the job at this point.

Penn State: Pat Chambers resigned in October following an investigation into his conduct, and the Nittany Lions appointed Jim Ferry as the interim boss. It sounds like they've recently started to dive into the search, with some emerging names including Gates, Shrewsberry, Michigan assistant coach Saddi Washington and Vermont's John Becker. One interesting name mentioned by sources was Montana's Travis DeCuire, whose time as an assistant coach at Cal overlapped with the Berkeley leadership of Penn State athletic director Sandy Barbour. The Nittany Lions also reached out to former Ohio State coach Thad Matta, but that didn't gather much steam. Keep an eye on Shrewsberry here.

Fordham: The Rams moved on from Jeff Neubauer in late January and are set to begin a long list of interviews this week. Part of the delay had to do with athletic director Ed Kull recently being elevated from interim athletic director to the permanent job. There's some talk that Kull's preference is to hire a sitting head coach, but interviews won't be limited to that pool. Some names mentioned with the Rams job include Siena's Carmen Maciariello, Bryant's Jared Grasso, St. Peter's Shaheen Holloway, Vermont's John Becker, Bowling Green's Michael Huger, Colgate's Matt Langel, Louisville assistant Luke Murray, Villanova assistant Kyle Neptune and Kentucky assistant Tony Barbee.

New Mexico: This one opened last week, with the school announcing Paul Weir was out at the end of the season. It's a destination with past success and a passionate fan base, but also one that's going on seven years without an NCAA tournament appearance and questions regarding the salary pool. Frank Martin's name has been linked to the job because of his relationship with athletic director Eddie Nunez, but I don't see it happening. Two more practical names I heard are former Nebraska head coach Tim Miles and Pacific head coach Damon Stoudamire, and another intriguing one emerging is Richard Pitino, should he part ways with Minnesota. Illinois assistant Orlando Antigua is another name.

Others currently open: Albany, Denver, Northern Illinois, Portland, Tennessee-Martin, Texas State, UC Riverside, UTRGV.
 
Jobs I'm watching

DePaul
: Dave Leitao signed an extension last spring through 2024, but the school has since hired a new athletic director and the extension reportedly includes no buyout. The Blue Demons are going to finish last in the Big East for the fifth straight season, and the expectation is that DePaul opens in the next few weeks. This is a job that generates mixed reviews within the industry: It has the infrastructure (facilities, location) in place to be a good job, but DePaul hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2004.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are two losses away from a winless Big 12 campaign, and they're headed for their fourth straight .500 or worse conference season. Steve Prohm went to the NCAA tournament in three of his first four seasons in Ames -- including a Sweet 16 run in 2016 -- but a potential 0-18 conference campaign with just two wins over Division I teams all season tends to be frowned upon at the Power 5 level. There are resource challenges that were amplified by the pandemic but it's not a bad job at all: passionate fan base, a history of quality coaches. Prohm is signed through 2025 and is owed at least $5 million.

South Carolina: This one is interesting. Frank Martin took South Carolina to the Final Four just five seasons ago, and finished above .500 in the SEC in four of his last five seasons before the 2020-21 campaign. But Martin has been linked to a number of high-major openings in recent years, and that Final Four was also his only NCAA tournament appearance since arriving in Columbia back in 2012. He's owed around $6 million, but could both sides just decide to part ways and move on?

Minnesota: Richard Pitino's seat has grown warmer over the last few weeks, as the Golden Gophers went from a likely NCAA tournament team to one on a five-game losing streak with back-to-back defeats to Northwestern and Nebraska. Pitino has had seasons of success at Minnesota, but hasn't been able to do it on a consistent basis and has really struggled to keep the best in-state talent home for college. His buyout is $1.75 million. This job would be perhaps the most attractive one on the market should it open (and others stay closed).

Arizona: As mentioned, digging too deeply into whether schools will part ways with coaches due to the NCAA investigation is a fool's errand. But Sean Miller is different -- because he has just one year left on his contract. Miller has been asked about it in press conferences, and hasn't offered much insight aside from saying he's not focused on it. Will Arizona offer him an extension in the next few months? That seems unlikely. And neither side would be eager to go into next season with only one year left on Miller's deal. There will need to be either an extension or a parting of ways this offseason.

Kansas State: It's been fairly quiet in Manhattan the last couple months, since a December loss to Division II Fort Hays State started the rumblings about Bruce Weber's future. The Wildcats won two in a row over TCU and Oklahoma last week, but they're just 7-19 overall and 3-14 in the league -- after going 11-21 overall and 3-15 last season. Weber has guided Kansas State to five NCAA tournaments, a Big 12 title (2019) and an Elite Eight appearance (2018) since taking over in 2012, and there doesn't seem to be a strong appetite to outright fire him. Could the two sides come to an agreement and have Weber step down on his own? He's owed $2 million.

Miami: The Hurricanes have been ravaged by injuries this season, with preseason NCAA tournament hopes falling by the wayside rather quickly. It will be the school's third consecutive season without an NCAA tournament appearance, and its third straight season finishing considerably below .500 in the ACC. But Jim Larranaga -- who has all three of the program's 25-win seasons and two of its three Sweet 16 appearances -- still has three years remaining on his deal, three quality recruits entering the program and would be owed more than $6 million should Miami decide to move on. I'm told the 71-year old has no desire to retire, either.

Indiana: Maybe the biggest elephant in the room entering this spring's coaching carousel. The Hoosiers, who were headed to their first NCAA tournament appearance under Miller when the pandemic occurred, have now lost four in a row and are likely going to be on the outside looking in at the 2021 NCAA tournament. That means Indiana will not have played in a tourney game -- with pandemic caveats, of course -- since Archie Miller took over in 2017, and that just doesn't fly in Bloomington. With that said, he's owed around $10 million, and it's unlikely the school would pay his buyout without a clear upgrade at the ready. And I'm just not sure IU's top options would be interested right now.

Utah: The Utes had a huge win over USC over the weekend, but they're going to finish below .500 in the Pac-12 for the second straight season. Prior to that, they finished .500 or better in the league six straight seasons under Larry Krystkowiak and went to two NCAA tournaments -- including a Sweet 16 run in 2015. Krystkowiak reportedly makes $3.76 million per year with two years left on his deal. I don't see a move happening yet, but multiple industry sources have brought it up in recent days
 
I'd be surprised ...


Notre Dame: Mike Brey has been in South Bend for 21 seasons, is the school's all-time winningest coach and has guided the Fighting Irish to 12 NCAA tournament appearances. This will be their fourth straight year without dancing, but he has five juniors set to return plus the addition of Yale transfer Paul Atkinson. I think Brey gets one more year.

Vanderbilt: Jerry Stackhouse dug his heels in in February, when he told The Athletic: "They could fire me. But I ain't giving money back." It's only year two of a six-year deal, and while the Commodores aren't winning a lot of games, opposing coaches have been impressed by the stuff they run. I don't see them paying Stackhouse to leave after just two seasons.

Marquette: Had the pandemic not canceled the NCAA tournament, Marquette would have been entering this season with three appearances in the last four years. Granted, this season went off the rails following wins over Wisconsin and Creighton, but Steve Wojciechowski is signed through 2024, has two ESPN 100 recruits entering the program and I'm told the administration likes him.

Washington: The Huskies are awful this season, sitting at 5-20 overall and 4-16 in the Pac-12, and Mike Hopkins has only been to one NCAA tournament in four seasons. But he has a fully guaranteed contract through 2025 and the school isn't likely to pay him eight figures to depart. Hopkins is also bringing in McDonald's All-American Jackson Grant.

Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle and the Beavers have shown signs of progress the last couple seasons, winning 18 games in 2019 and 2020 and sitting at 9-9 in conference play this season. Plus, he's owed more than $4 million over the next two years.

Northwestern: Remember when Northwestern was the talk of college basketball? The Wildcats started 6-1 with a win over Ohio State -- but they promptly lost 13 straight games before winning at Minnesota last week. Chris Collins has been in charge in Evanston since 2013 and has only been to one NCAA tournament in 2017, but that was the program's first tourney appearance and Collins immediately received an extension through 2025 after engineering it.

South Florida
: It's only year four of the Brian Gregory era with the Bulls, but they have seven Division I wins this year and were just 14-17 last season. In fact, Gregory hasn't had a winning conference record since 2009 -- two jobs ago at Dayton. The buyout is also reportedly very low, but again, it's only year four. This might be the one job in this section worth keeping an eye on, though.

SMU: SMU is going to be a sought-after job whenever it opens, due to its location, money and facilities -- but I can't see it being this year. Tim Jankovich had a couple down years after going 30-5 in his first season at the helm, but won 19 games last season and has the Mustangs on the back-end of the bubble this season.

Stanford: It's been a disappointing campaign for Jerod Haase and the Cardinal, given they have elite freshman Ziaire Williams and maybe the best player in the Pac-12 in Oscar da Silva. But they were also displaced for three-quarters of the season due to the pandemic and it's not a school that has shown a quick trigger in the past. Haase is also once again bringing in a top-25 recruiting class led by five-star Harrison Ingram. It's a job that's only barely on my radar.

George Washington: It's only Year 2, but it hasn't worked so far with Jamion Christian in the nation's capital. There have been staff changes, player departures and just general tumult within the program over the last couple seasons. The Colonials went 12-20 last season and are just 4-11 this season entering the conference tournament. But again, it's just year two.
 
Three more to keep an eye on


George Mason: I don't see any changes being made this season after the Patriots won four in a row to end the season to finish 12-8 overall and 8-6 in the Atlantic 10 entering the conference tournament. Dave Paulsen is well-liked in the community, but this will make it six years without GMU coming close to a conference title. That said, I don't see a move being made.


Indiana State: This one is very likely to happen, despite ISU's on-court performance not being all that bad. Greg Lansing's team has been terrific to close out this season, winning 10 of their last 12 games to finish 11-7 in Missouri Valley, a year after they went 18-12 overall and 11-7 in the league. Lansing took over in 2010 and hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since his first season, but still, it seems harsh to make a move. Athletic director Sherard Clinkscales has strong ties to Matt Painter and Purdue, so if a move is made, keep an eye on coaches with a link to the Boilermakers.


Illinois State: It seems like just yesterday that Dan Muller and Illinois State went 17-1 in the Missouri Valley and won 28 games, but that was 2017. The Redbirds are about to finish at the bottom of the standings, but I don't see a move being made; Muller's buyout is $1.5 million.

Others: Eastern Michigan, The Citadel, Lamar, Rider, Jacksonville, Central Connecticut State, San Jose State

Big names to watch

Eric Musselman, Arkansas: If Minnesota opens, Musselman will likely be one of the first calls. He grew up in Minneapolis and his father, Bill, coached both the Gophers and Timberwolves. The question is whether Minnesota could offer enough money to get Musselman to leave what he's building in Fayetteville.

Richard Pitino, Minnesota: As mentioned, Pitino's future in the Twin Cities is tenuous. Could he pursue another job on his own? He's been linked to New Mexico a bit since it opened, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him sniff around Boston College.

Nate Oats, Alabama: I'm only including Oats to mention that he likely shouldn't be listed as a candidate for any job that opens, even if it's Indiana or Arizona. Oats' new contract from February set his buyout at north of $12 million.

Bobby Hurley, Arizona State: Hurley has been listed as a potential candidate at Boston College, and it's also likely that DePaul will reach out to him to gauge interest. The Sun Devils have struggled this season, but he's done a terrific job getting talent to Tempe and would have made his fourth NCAA tournament (third straight with ASU) had the plug not been pulled in 2020.

Frank Martin, South Carolina: New Mexico likely won't happen, but could Martin try to get involved at DePaul or Boston College? The Miami native would also be a logical candidate should the Hurricanes job open.

Mike Boynton, Oklahoma State: Should South Carolina open, Boynton will be the candidate immediately linked to the job. He played there in the early 2000s and also spent five seasons in Columbia as an assistant coach. He is headed to the NCAA tournament this season and also has the likely No. 1 draft pick on his roster in Cade Cunningham.
 
Mid-major names


Porter Moser, Loyola Chicago: No mid-major coach on this list will be able to match Moser's résumé over the past four years. The Ramblers went to the Final Four in 2018, won the Missouri Valley in 2019 and again this year, while also ranked near the top 10 in both NET and KenPom. Moser was pursued by St. John's a couple years ago, but ultimately decided to stay at Loyola. He's in a great spot right now, so he can be selective with the jobs he does chase. I'd imagine he would be very interested in DePaul or Minnesota if either opens.

Dennis Gates, Cleveland State: No coach has raised his stock more than this season than Gates, who won a share of the Horizon League regular-season title and his second straight Horizon League Coach of the Year award. He took over a really difficult job in the summer of 2019, but has the Vikings with a chance at their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2009. Gates was a longtime Leonard Hamilton assistant at Florida State, and also has experience at Nevada and California. He's considered a prime candidate at Penn State and Boston College, and the Chicago native would undoubtedly be in the mix at DePaul as well.

Wes Miller, UNC Greensboro: Miller was in the mix for Wake Forest last season and could find himself on some high-major shortlists again. UNCG won the SoCon title for the third time in five years, and Miller is pushing for his second NCAA tournament appearance.

Pat Kelsey, Winthrop: Kelsey has now won two straight -- and four of the last six -- Big South regular-season titles. The Eagles went 20-1 in the regular season, with the lone loss coming by two points. Kelsey also has plenty of experience as a high-major assistant. But are there any obvious jobs for him to take this spring?

Mark Pope, BYU: Pope is going to be on the radar for most available high-major jobs until he takes one. He checks a lot of boxes: played in the NBA, high-major experience as an assistant coach, has had success at two spots as a head coach. He had BYU in the mix for a top-four seed last season and will have the Cougars dancing again this season. I could see him getting a call if Arizona opens -- but he could also opt to wait and see what else comes open the next couple seasons.

Craig Smith, Utah State: I could see the Minnesota native Smith getting in the mix for any Midwest job that opens, and I think he would be one of the top two candidates for Iowa State along with UNLV's T.J. Otzelberger. USU earned back-to-back NCAA tournament berths the last two seasons and is only a half-game out of first this season.

Brian Dutcher, San Diego State: Dutcher would undoubtedly be on the list at Minnesota, but would he leave San Diego? His Aztecs won 30 games last season and are leading the Mountain West. Perhaps relevant to note that the 61-year-old Dutcher attended Minnesota and his father, Jim, coached the Golden Gophers from 1975-86 (the elder Dutcher succeeded Eric Musselman's dad, Bill).

Niko Medved, Colorado State: There will be plenty of momentum for Medved if Minnesota opens. He's a Minneapolis native, attended Minnesota and was an assistant coach for the Golden Gophers for a season in 2006-07. He's done well at Furman, Drake and now has Colorado State on the precipice of the NCAA tournament.

Darian DeVries, Drake: DeVries had Drake off to an 18-0 start, one of the final three unbeaten teams in college basketball, and it was an NCAA tournament lock before recent injuries. He has won at least 20 games in all three seasons with the Bulldogs. DeVries would be a locked-in candidate if Kansas State opened.

Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure: Schmidt has been successful for more than a decade at St. Bonaventure, one of the more difficult jobs at the mid-major-plus level. He has the Bonnies in position to make the NCAA tournament this season, and he's in the mix at Penn State and his alma mater, Boston College.

Chris Mooney, Richmond: Mooney has been buzzing a bit for Boston College, but would he take it? He's turned down better jobs in the past, most notably Georgia Tech and Miami. Perhaps Mooney feels it's time for a change, but I'm not completely sold he makes a move.

James Jones, Yale: Jones and the rest of the Ivy League has had the 2020-21 season off, but his recent résumé speaks for itself. He's won at least a share of the regular-season title in four of the last six years, going to two NCAA tournaments during that time. Had strong momentum early in the process at Penn State.

John Becker, Vermont: Becker is going to be offered a better job at some point; it just remains to be seen whether it will be this year. He's been linked to Boston College and Penn State. Becker has won five straight America East regular-season titles and been to three NCAA tournaments.

T.J. Otzelberger, UNLV: Otzelberger hasn't quite gotten it rolling in his two seasons in Vegas, but he would be one of the two favorites at Iowa State if it opened. He spent eight years as an assistant coach in Ames under Greg McDermott and Fred Hoiberg.

Damon Stoudamire, Pacific: It's been a difficult year for the Tigers due to COVID pauses, but they've finished with wins in three of their final four games -- after finishing tied for third in the standings last season. He's in the mix at New Mexico and I think he would be one of the favorites for Arizona (his alma mater) if it opened.

Mike Rhoades, VCU: Rhoades has VCU back in the mix for the NCAA tournament after leading the Rams to 25 wins and a tournament appearance back in 2019. I could see him getting on the list at Boston College or Penn State, but I'm not sure either of those is a better job than VCU.

Casey Alexander, Belmont: Had the Bruins off to a 24-1 start with a 21-game winning streak and has won at least 23 games in four straight seasons -- but there's not a logical move for him. Perhaps Vanderbilt if it opened.

Ryan Odom, UMBC: Odom has the biggest trump card of any mid-major candidate outside of maybe Moser -- a 16-over-1 upset in the NCAA tournament. He's now backed that up with a share of the America East title this season. If South Carolina opened, could he get in the mix at the place his father, Dave, coached?

Scott Nagy, Wright State: It's a surprise Nagy isn't mentioned more for Midwest openings. He's won at least a share of the Horizon League title in three straight seasons and he's won at least 19 games 11 straight seasons dating back to his days at South Dakota State. I don't know if there's an obvious big job for him, but one could emerge once dominoes start falling.
 
Getting back in?

John Beilein: The X factor in most searches, Beilein is going to be a prime candidate for any big jobs. But will he be interested? There's long been talk he didn't enjoy recruiting all that much and he just turned 68 last month. Whether he wants to take over a two- or three-year rebuild or wait for a ready-made job is the question.

Thad Matta: Matta has been pursued by several schools since parting ways with Ohio State back in 2017 -- including by Penn State this year -- but hasn't shown much interest. Should the right job open, though, my understanding is Matta would be interested in getting back into college coaching. Will that happen this spring?

John Thompson III: Led Georgetown to eight NCAA tournament appearances -- including a Final Four in 2007 -- before being fired in 2017. Did some television work for ESPN and now works for the Washington Wizards. Was a consistent winner with both the Hoyas and at Princeton.

Tim Miles: Was briefly linked to Wyoming last year, but could be a real candidate at New Mexico this spring. Led Nebraska to one NCAA tournament and two NIT appearances during his seven years in Lincoln before being fired, and spent five years in the Mountain West at Colorado State.
 
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