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The problem with the “due for a down year” argument

freewillie07

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Aug 22, 2017
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Lately, some posters (or, a poster) on this board, in a consistent effort to move the goalposts, made the argument that while this season is unfortunate, it's not a cause for panic because "all programs have bad years" from time to time, with the exception of Alabama and Ohio State types.

I don't buy that for a minute, and neither should you.

The argument goes something like this: Because of injuries, a tough schedule and generally bad luck, NU is currently 2-8 (0-7). That's all right, though, because teams like MSU, Nebraska and Iowa have had bad years, too.

The thing is, NU also had what I think a lot of us would consider "down years" recently, in 2013 and 2014, and even they didn't compare to the dreadful offensive product that's currently being rolled out every Saturday this season.

But let's be more objective about it. As a reminder, NU went 5-7 in 2013 and 5-7 in 2014. That's 10 wins over two seasons and back-to-back years without a bowl game. That hasn't happened at Iowa since 2000 and not at Michigan State since 2006. Simply put, for a program that seemed to have "made it" with a bowl win, these next two years were a clear step backwards.

And yet, even those down years had their moments. The 2013 team snapped its 7-game losing streak with a win over Illinois. The 2014 squad obviously had the Notre Dame game, but also AWalk's coming out party against Penn State and Godwin's against Wisconsin. The offensive performance was pretty bad in those years, but it was never *worst in the nation* bad.

What exactly does this year's team have to hang its hat on? A narrow home loss to a Purdue team that was playing a walk-on QB and was without one of the top playmakers in the nation? Almost grinding out an ugly win against Nebraska, but falling short? There's nothing.

This is not just a "bad season." It's a cry for change on one side of the ball. There's a difference between underperformance and ineptitude. Remove McCall, probably remove Springer too, and bring in an offensive coordinator who has a plan for how to utilize Hunter Johnson for his remaining two years in Evanston.

Go Cats.
 
I don't disagree at all about the need for a new OC. But I do think this season has been a perfect storm of injury, schedule, and turnover at some key positions (QB, SB, DT, CB). The injuries have exacerbated our depth where some key players graduated. Our roster really has been gutted.

But the offense clearly needs a reboot.
 
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I don't disagree at all about the need for a new OC. But I do think this season has been a perfect storm of injury, schedule, and turnover at some key positions (QB, SB, DT, CB). The injuries have exacerbated our depth where some key players graduated. Our roster really has been gutted.

But the offense clearly needs a reboot.
With top end athletes getting paid for their image, I cant see NU and small private schools being able to compete with monster programs.

And with NU going cheap already on allowable monies, Fitz simply hasnt been able to bring in the sorta championship talent that Barnett and Walker brought in. Turk is right.
 
I don't disagree at all about the need for a new OC. But I do think this season has been a perfect storm of injury, schedule, and turnover at some key positions (QB, SB, DT, CB). The injuries have exacerbated our depth where some key players graduated. Our roster really has been gutted.

But the offense clearly needs a reboot.
Made perfect by the fact that the offense has been performing on a razor's edge for at least 6 years, that is, depending on breaks (and great defense) could go either way. Given that, what has transpired was highly predictable, also given injury, schedule and turnover.
 
With top end athletes getting paid for their image, I cant see NU and small private schools being able to compete with monster programs.

And with NU going cheap already on allowable monies, Fitz simply hasnt been able to bring in the sorta championship talent that Barnett and Walker brought in. Turk is right.
How is NU going cheap? They built the best facilities in college football and have given a huge bump across the board to coaches salaries.
 
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Quarterback play is huge in Big Ten football.
  • Northwestern
  • Nebraska
  • Purdue
  • Illinois
  • Iowa
  • Minnesota
  • Wisconsin
All the teams know this is a key importance, as 2019 validates for the Wildcats and each team in the division.

In the losses, look at quarterback. How will this impact Saturday?
 
With top end athletes getting paid for their image, I cant see NU and small private schools being able to compete with monster programs.

And with NU going cheap already on allowable monies, Fitz simply hasnt been able to bring in the sorta championship talent that Barnett and Walker brought in. Turk is right.

You're making shit up again, Turk.
 
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How is NU going cheap? They built the best facilities in college football and have given a huge bump across the board to coaches salaries.

And they actually do take advantage of the "cost of attendance" situation. Turk is just making shit up.
 
I don't disagree at all about the need for a new OC. But I do think this season has been a perfect storm of injury, schedule, and turnover at some key positions (QB, SB, DT, CB). The injuries have exacerbated our depth where some key players graduated. Our roster really has been gutted.

But the offense clearly needs a reboot.

Made perfect by the fact that the offense has been performing on a razor's edge for at least 6 years, that is, depending on breaks (and great defense) could go either way. Given that, what has transpired was highly predictable, also given injury, schedule and turnover.

Both you guys nailed it. In recent years, and especially last year, we've had most of the close games go our way. It helps when you have a veteran 4-year starter that minimizes mistakes and can execute the plays, bad play calling aside.

This year, we lost two games to field goals as time ran out (Neb & Pur). If our defense had held on those final drives, we would have 2 wins in the B1G. I'm not saying we deserved those wins, but that's how the cookie crumbled this season. With a new offense next season (please) the defense won't need to be on the field so long and play desperately to create turnovers to compensate for a putrid offense.
 
Both you guys nailed it. In recent years, and especially last year, we've had most of the close games go our way.

This team easily could have been 4-8 last season with a few bounces going the other way. Instead, we got a Big Ten West winner and a date in the title game - and we reflect on that team as if they were great, but they really were just good and lucky.
 
O.K. McCall is fired and we go 3-9 next year, who gets fired after next season?

Not worried. If McCall gets fired, and we get a halfway competent replacement, I think we'll have a very good season. We have a strong nucleus on offense, with an OL that's going to be pretty good. As Fitz said, we'll be back.
 
Not worried. If McCall gets fired, and we get a halfway competent replacement, I think we'll have a very good season. We have a strong nucleus on offense, with an OL that's going to be pretty good. As Fitz said, we'll be back.

We do?
 
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I think so.

Barring injury, which is unpredictable, we have the following returning next season:
  • QB: Trent Green (assuming medical RS), Johnson
  • RB: Bowser, McGowan, Hull, Anderson, Porter (unknown)
  • WR: Skowronek (see Green), Lees, RCB, JJ Jefferson, ARY (unknown)
  • SB: Pugh
  • OL: 4 of 5 starters including stud Slater, add new talent like Skoronski, etc.
Compare this team to the B1G West champions from last year, and it's not that huge of a drop-off in talent. Obviously we don't have a Thorson-caliber QB but I believe Green is serviceable and Johnson could be improved. I would argue that the OL could be even better than last year's team.
 
Not worried. If McCall gets fired, and we get a halfway competent replacement, I think we'll have a very good season. We have a strong nucleus on offense, with an OL that's going to be pretty good. As Fitz said, we'll be back.
A strong nucleus on offense? I am still trying to wrap my arms around the "Trust Fitz, he'll have us back in the hunt next year" posts of one poster. Which returning WRs have shown skills at routes and creating separation? How did the returning OL starters fare against BT competition this year? Etc. But let's not look past QB - - for you and others confident about next year, is it because HJ will return and (out of nowhere) capably handle the offense?, Aidan Smith improving dramatically?, Green returning, and based on 2 quarters against Stanford?,Marty? A FR? A secret, undisclosed grad transfer? What?
 
I think so.

Barring injury, which is unpredictable, we have the following returning next season:
  • QB: Trent Green (assuming medical RS), Johnson
  • RB: Bowser, McGowan, Hull, Anderson, Porter (unknown)
  • WR: Skowronek (see Green), Lees, RCB, JJ Jefferson, ARY (unknown)
  • SB: Pugh
  • OL: 4 of 5 starters including stud Slater, add new talent like Skoronski, etc.
Compare this team to the B1G West champions from last year, and it's not that huge of a drop-off in talent. Obviously we don't have a Thorson-caliber QB but I believe Green is serviceable and Johnson could be improved. I would argue that the OL could be even better than last year's team.

Still don't think we really have the "difference making" talent on the roster, particularly at the skill positions.

PS -- Skowronek doesn't need a medical redshirt. He can just take a "regular" redshirt because he hadn't yet and has only participated in three games this year.
 
Both you guys nailed it. In recent years, and especially last year, we've had most of the close games go our way. It helps when you have a veteran 4-year starter that minimizes mistakes and can execute the plays, bad play calling aside.

This year, we lost two games to field goals as time ran out (Neb & Pur). If our defense had held on those final drives, we would have 2 wins in the B1G. I'm not saying we deserved those wins, but that's how the cookie crumbled this season. With a new offense next season (please) the defense won't need to be on the field so long and play desperately to create turnovers to compensate for a putrid offense.

NU was not competitive against Michigan State, which is currently 4-6. Not competitive against Iowa or Indiana. And certainly not against Ohio State.

Yes, NU won several close games in past years, but even if they lost some of them, we’d be treated to competitive football.

Anyone care to look up the last time NU had a season with four losses of 20 or more points? (Edit: I just did, looks like last time was 2006. No season since has even had three losses of 20 or more points until this one.)
 
This is one of the more baffling things I have ever read on this site, and that is saying a lot.

I swear, I'm not going @corbi296 on you guys.

We are only one season removed from our B1G West championship season, 8-1 in B1G play. Sure we had Thorson and Cam Green, but we also had Bowser, Skow, Lees, Slater, Jefferson, McGowan, etc. Our nucleus is still pretty solid.
 
NU was not competitive against Michigan State, which is currently 4-6. Not competitive against Iowa or Indiana. And certainly not against Ohio State.

Yes, NU won several close games in past years, but even if they lost some of them, we’d be treated to competitive football.

Anyone care to look up the last time NU had a season with four losses of 20 or more points?

To me, those games snowballed out of control because of our hopeless offense. Fitz should've replaced McCall after the first 3 or 4 games, during the season. It takes balls to do that, but the downside is no worse than keeping McCall.
 
A strong nucleus on offense? I am still trying to wrap my arms around the "Trust Fitz, he'll have us back in the hunt next year" posts of one poster. Which returning WRs have shown skills at routes and creating separation? How did the returning OL starters fare against BT competition this year? Etc. But let's not look past QB - - for you and others confident about next year, is it because HJ will return and (out of nowhere) capably handle the offense?, Aidan Smith improving dramatically?, Green returning, and based on 2 quarters against Stanford?,Marty? A FR? A secret, undisclosed grad transfer? What?

My comments are predicated on one significant event: McCall is replaced as Offensive Coordinator. In that scenario, I think with the right coach, Green or Johnson could play to their strengths and be able to manage the offense so that it actually scores points and is not a liability. But unlike a lot of folks on this board, I don't think the major problem is a lack of talent. We had enough talent to win the B1G West. We can do it again.
 
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Sure we lost a guy at the most important position by far who got drafted to the NFL...

:)

Clayton had some crappy games, was recovering from major injury, and posted very pedestrian numbers with almost as many interceptions as TD passes. Again, McCall's offense did him no favors.
 
I swear, I'm not going @corbi296 on you guys.

We are only one season removed from our B1G West championship season, 8-1 in B1G play. Sure we had Thorson and Cam Green, but we also had Bowser, Skow, Lees, Slater, Jefferson, McGowan, etc. Our nucleus is still pretty solid.

Where's the difference maker?
 
The difference maker? McCall's replacement. ;)

We still don't really have anyone outside who has proven that they can truly threaten a defense. Skowronek and Lees are nice players, but not really that "difference maker" in my mind. Perhaps GHP or someone like that can emerge to threaten a defense downfield, but it's a big question mark no matter the scheme.
 
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We still don't really have anyone outside who has proven that they can truly threaten a defense. Skowronek and Lees are nice players, but not really that "difference maker" in my mind. Perhaps GHP or someone like that can emerge to threaten a defense downfield, but it's a big question mark no matter the scheme.

I envision a healthy Bowser rushing for over 1,000 yards for the season, with a competent passing game featuring steady ball control passes to Lees, Skow, ARY that can keep defenses off balance with occasional downfield plays to JJ Jefferson or others. We saw glimpses of it last year and this year. Get rid of the stupid Superback moniker and incorporate the TE into passing plays like we did sometimes (not enough) with Dickerson and Cam Green. We got a kid on the sidelines, 6-5 225 Thomas Gordon, who was offered by fricking LSU for crying out loud.

We don't need to be a top ten offense, I would happily settle for top fifty at this point.
 
I envision a healthy Bowser rushing for over 1,000 yards for the season, with a competent passing game featuring steady ball control passes to Lees, Skow, ARY that can keep defenses off balance with occasional downfield plays to JJ Jefferson or others. We saw glimpses of it last year and this year. Get rid of the stupid Superback moniker and incorporate the TE into passing plays like we did sometimes (not enough) with Dickerson and Cam Green. We got a kid on the sidelines, 6-5 225 Thomas Gordon, who was offered by fricking LSU for crying out loud.

We don't need to be a top ten offense, I would happily settle for top fifty at this point.

What in the world is the fascination with "Superback" as a position group? It literally makes no difference whatsoever.
 
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We still don't really have anyone outside who has proven that they can truly threaten a defense. Skowronek and Lees are nice players, but not really that "difference maker" in my mind. Perhaps GHP or someone like that can emerge to threaten a defense downfield, but it's a big question mark no matter the scheme.

I guess the question is if JJ Jefferson or Kyric McGowan would have more success in the long passing game with a better (non-McCall) scheme?

They have had some success before.
 
It's not just you. Plenty of folks on this board seem to get wrapped up in what the position group is called, which makes literally zero difference whatsoever.

You take everything literally. I just made a passing comment while making the main point that we don't incorporate that position into our passing game enough, and especially this season. Of course you choose to pontificate on the irrelevant rather than the salient point. Carry on, I guess it's what we should expect.
 
Why are people accepting this "schedule" narrative? Stanford certainly worse than ND, Mass worse than Akron. Neb, Purdue, worse, Iowa about same, Wisc better but 2 bad losses

So if we were say 2 games worse so far due to OSU and Wisc, fine, but we are like 5-6 games worse with the two most; mproved teams UPCOMING.

Schedule indeed. We are just bad
 
Why are people accepting this "schedule" narrative? Stanford certainly worse than ND, Mass worse than Akron. Neb, Purdue, worse, Iowa about same, Wisc better but 2 bad losses

So if we were say 2 games worse so far due to OSU and Wisc, fine, but we are like 5-6 games worse with the two most; mproved teams UPCOMING.

Schedule indeed. We are just bad

I think most of the schedule talk at the moment is about the 2020 schedule, when the OOC is Tulane, Central Michigan, and Morgan State vs. Stanford, UNLV, and UMass. Crossovers with Penn State and Maryland vs. Ohio State and Indiana. Open the season at Michigan State.

Tulane is a step down from Stanford regardless of this year's record, plus it is at home. Central Michigan/UNLV and UMass/Morgan State probably washes on balance. Penn State a slight step down from OSU (but not much) and Maryland a slight step down from Indiana.
 
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I think most of the schedule talk at the moment is about the 2020 schedule, when the OOC is Tulane, Central Michigan, and Morgan State vs. Stanford, UNLV, and UMass. Crossovers with Penn State and Maryland vs. Ohio State and Indiana. Open the season at Michigan State.

Tulane is a step down from Stanford regardless of this year's record, plus it is at home. Central Michigan/UNLV and UMass/Morgan State probably washes on balance. Penn State a slight step down from OSU (but not much) and Maryland a slight step down from Indiana.
That's fair, but my impression is that it is always regarding the "down" West last year. That narrative, on balance, only applies to the games we've not yet played. We are clearly worse, and it isn't schedule fatigue
 
Why are people accepting this "schedule" narrative? Stanford certainly worse than ND, Mass worse than Akron. Neb, Purdue, worse, Iowa about same, Wisc better but 2 bad losses

So if we were say 2 games worse so far due to OSU and Wisc, fine, but we are like 5-6 games worse with the two most; mproved teams UPCOMING.

Schedule indeed. We are just bad
Because certain people want to come up with every excuse possible to support their narrative. Bottom line is we have played 1 great team, 3 good teams and 6 bad teams. Not a tough schedule at all.
 
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