The Realignment is Inevitable

[klemman]

Those of you who know I post here as an OSU fan may recall that I’ve been predicting this inevitability for years. Not because I know more or have ESP, it’s just been the direction and every change in college football this century has continued to support the creation of a super-conference/semi-pro football league. What I didn’t realize at how fast it could occur. The first few dominos have been turned over and now momentum takes over.

I’m a couple off years from 60, so I consider myself a traditionalist, and it does sadden me. I see college football outside of the SEC plus going back to a more regional game. So I see the Big 10 continuing, and maybe become a basketball conference, which is why the rumors of Kansas joining making sense. The same of the ACC, especially if Clemson, Florida State, and maybe Miami leaves.

The transition would be similar to what happened with the East Coast schools who were football focused in the 1920’s-early 1960’s, then became Big East basketball in the 1980’s and 1990’s.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Klemman, I always appreciate your perspectives. I agree with you that this saddens me. I personally think the move to a super conference or even assembling all the blue bloods in an expanded SEC is a shortsighted one. With the research on traumatic brain injuries already casting big shadows on college football, one of the last things CFB has going for for a lot of fans it is the connection to tradition. The expense of fielding a team for a school outside of the super conference, with all the headaches and Title IX implications will pretty much kill the game outside the super conference. In the super conference, the Mississippi State’s will be hopelessly overmatched, and really no one outside of the half dozen big powers will care. Outside of fans of the few power schools, who will care? Viewership will plummet as the audience outside the included schools will have little connection to the game. Why won’t the NFL expand and start splitting its games between Saturday and Sunday? My guess, if the OSU’s of the world go ahead with this, is that in 20 years they will find their athletic departments being forced to downsize, alumni will start to lose interest, and they will look back and ask themselves why they did it.

 

[GeauxCatsGeaux]

I think this is shortsighted because they're overestimating how many people care about just the elite programs. I would venture to guess that a sizable portion of people that care about Ohio State do so because they care about Purdue/NU/Minnesota/Maryland/Rutgers/Michigan State etc., or because they like what makes college football unique - rivalries, playing on behalf of your state or your alumni base, cross-regional rivalries, weird upsets and storming the field. This will get lost in a "super conference" that only plays each other. I don't see it lasting longer than 10 years, and only because that's the length of ESPN's inevitable contract (and will that contract be higher than the 3 Billion they're going to shell out for the SEC already?).

Also, from a football standpoint, the super conference would need relegation to be interesting. You're going to have Arkansas in a 32 team conference? They'll never win a game for years. And if you went back 15 years, would you have put Clemson in it? With coaches coming and going, programs change dramatically.

 

[T_Levine]

This thread resides some great points and I agree as a traditionalist like you all so far. I also cannot help but think why would an 18-21 yr old want their body to the pounding of a pro like schedule would impact. For 2,3 or 4 years. There is something to be said for weaker teams physically to use scheme and strategy to compete and have the occasional upset vs a 12 round heavyweight fight week in and week out.

I Have to assume that more injuries will occur and potentially more serious ones thus you might start to see more can’t miss pro prospects never make the nfl and never even seeing a college degree because their careers are cut short before they begin.

There is no good other than tv money that seems to come out of super conferences.

 

[zeek55]

I don't think it's inevitable, but I do think there will be further movement.

I think the key is what happens with ND and the ACC schools. There's no reason for Ohio State to make a dramatic move any time soon given the Big Ten payouts will at least be comparable to the SEC for the next 5-10 years.

After that, if the Big Ten looks to poach the ACC, maybe ND joins with a bunch of ACC schools.

If ND, FSU, UVa, UNC, Duke, and Ga Tech join the Big Ten, that'd be a 20 team conference earning the same $ per team as the SEC. 2 more big football brands in ND/FSU, the biggest basketball rivalry and a footprint that covers every major market on the East Coast from NYC to Florida.

No reason to panic just yet while the Big Ten has some cards to play. We just gotta get to 2030 with comparable revenue to the SEC.

 

[FanatiCat]

Totally agree with all this. What will be the point of a college football super conference with all the 4* and 5* kids going there and making six figure incomes from NIL?

 

[Arlcatsfan]

As most of you are I am a traditionalist.A super conference would be bad for college football as a whole.There is something to be said for conference rivalries.The Rose Bowl between The Big Ten and The PAC was the game of the year.When we finally got to the Rose Bowl,just to see Northwestern run onto that field before the game made me the proudest I have ever been at a sporting event,and I am just a longtime fan of the program.Cant imagine what you alums felt.Even in the bowl games where we have beaten SEC teams gives you pride in your team and your conference.To have that all kicked to the side would cause irreparable harm to the college game.What do I care if Alabama and Texas A&M play,or some other teams in that super conference I have no connection to unlike NU that I lived nearby for many years and had a couple of friends get degrees from.The Big has a viable TV contract and other positives going for it.I think Ohio State would be foolish to leave the Big.What would their schedule be like.As T-Levine said you can’t play a slobber knocker game every weekend.l just hope The Big has the leadership in charge to see wherever this change ends up that The Big Ten is in the best possible position it can be.

 

[eastbaycat99]

If OSU does go ahead with this, the best thing that could happen would be for the Cats to win the West this year and upset them in Indianapolis. Having them slink away to the SEC as a loser to the small university with a clean program would emphasize everything that is wrong with this initiative. It would be a little like the Hungary-USSR water polo match in the 1956, one of the most satisfying events in sports, ever.

 

[CaliforniaCat]

Perhaps someone can explain this headline "The Realignment is Inevitable."

1. What precisely is wrong with the current alignment?

2. Unless there is something that can be identified as a real problem with the current alignment, then how is the proposed new one any better?

And I'm looking for answers that do not involve money. I understand the money aspect, sad as it is. As far as I can tell that is the sole reason for this massive upheaval. If there is another possible reason to believe that "The Realignment is Inevitable" I would like to hear it.

 

[NU Houston]

Perhaps someone can explain this headline "The Realignment is Inevitable."

1. What precisely is wrong with the current alignment?

2. Unless there is something that can be identified as a real problem with the current alignment, then how is the proposed new one any better?

And I'm looking for answers that do not involve money. I understand the money aspect, sad as it is. As far as I can tell that is the sole reason for this massive upheaval. If there is another possible reason to believe that "The Realignment is Inevitable" I would like to hear it.

There are no answers here that do not involve money. Money makes the world go 'round. If you don't like it, then don't watch. That's an option I'm considering.

 

[zeek55]

Perhaps someone can explain this headline "The Realignment is Inevitable."

1. What precisely is wrong with the current alignment?

2. Unless there is something that can be identified as a real problem with the current alignment, then how is the proposed new one any better?

And I'm looking for answers that do not involve money. I understand the money aspect, sad as it is. As far as I can tell that is the sole reason for this massive upheaval. If there is another possible reason to believe that "The Realignment is Inevitable" I would like to hear it.

There's nothing wrong with the current alignment, but reality is you do have to keep up in the money race.

At the end of the day though, Big Ten is most likely to just not do anything for the next 10 years.

Fans panicking doesn't mean anything.

 

[GeauxCatsGeaux]

There's nothing wrong with the current alignment, but reality is you do have to keep up in the money race.

At the end of the day though, Big Ten is most likely to just not do anything for the next 10 years.

Fans panicking doesn't mean anything.

Also, I can see how it makes financial sense for Texas/OU to leave the Big 12, and then join the SEC. I'm not sure it makes financial sense for Ohio St or anyone else to leave the Big Ten. At least not yet.

 

[CaliforniaCat]

There's nothing wrong with the current alignment, but reality is you do have to keep up in the money race.

Do you really?

If you are not losing money and are in fact making quite a bit, why do "you have to keep up in the money race"?

Is it really 'have to', or is just 'want to' for ego purposes?

 

[willycat]

Do you really?

If you are not losing money and are in fact making quite a bit, why do "you have to keep up in the money race"?

Is it really 'have to', or is just 'want to' for ego purposes?

Is NU making money? They do have the smallest football stadium and Basketball arena in the conference. Also the smallest student body.

 

[CaliforniaCat]

Is NU making money? They do have the smallest football stadium and Basketball arena in the conference. Also the smallest student body.

My impression is that NU, like all of the other BigTen schools, is making money on athletics. Do you have any information to the contrary?

 

[Katatonic]

Best thing for the B1G to do is to make a big splash and pick up the cream of the ACC (and maybe ND) to form a 20 team conference.

Basically can reconstitute the ACC (Atlantic division) with the 6 ACC schools (or ND), UMD, RU, PSU and one other B1G school (likely MSU or IU staying in the east).

But wouldn't happen til closer to 2036 and Fox would have to pony up some serious cash.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Perhaps someone can explain this headline "The Realignment is Inevitable."

1. What precisely is wrong with the current alignment?

2. Unless there is something that can be identified as a real problem with the current alignment, then how is the proposed new one any better?

And I'm looking for answers that do not involve money. I understand the money aspect, sad as it is. As far as I can tell that is the sole reason for this massive upheaval. If there is another possible reason to believe that "The Realignment is Inevitable" I would like to hear it.

The answer is money, sprinkled with hubris. If people think more revenue is possible from a super league, then it will happen. There is nothing that can stop this. Sorry you don’t like to hear that.

 

[CatManTrue]

My impression is that NU, like all of the other BigTen schools, is making money on athletics. Do you have any information to the contrary?

Ask Greg Sankey:

 

[zeek55]

Best thing for the B1G to do is to make a big splash and pick up the cream of the ACC (and maybe ND) to form a 20 team conference.

Basically can reconstitute the ACC (Atlantic division) with the 6 ACC schools (or ND), UMD, RU, PSU and one other B1G school (likely MSU or IU staying in the east).

But wouldn't happen til closer to 2036 and Fox would have to pony up some serious cash.

Yes, but we likely have to wait until 2031-2032.

My hunch is the Big Ten will aim to grab 6 from the ACC (including ND). Add UNC/UVa/Duke/Ga Tech/FSU and ND to the Big Ten.

2 big football brands in ND/FSU, all the big tv markets from NYC to Florida in the Big Ten footprint.

Effectively, half of the Big Ten will be in the east coast area so that would give ND an incentive to join for geographic diversity.

It's a sensible approach for a 20 team conference that pays as much $ per team as the SEC.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Yes, but we likely have to wait until 2031-2032.

My hunch is the Big Ten will aim to grab 6 from the ACC (including ND). Add UNC/UVa/Duke/Ga Tech/FSU and ND to the Big Ten.

2 big football brands in ND/FSU, all the big tv markets from NYC to Florida in the Big Ten footprint.

Effectively, half of the Big Ten will be in the east coast area so that would give ND an incentive to join for geographic diversity.

It's a sensible approach for a 20 team conference that pays as much $ per team as the SEC.

Why not Clemson

 

[zeek55]

Why not Clemson

It's a possibility as a 6th if ND says no, but I just doubt we add 3 more football powers when we can get more territory/academically inclined schools.

It's also possible we go bigger than 20 but I doubt that. Going to 20 will already be a big lift.

Just not sure who Clemson would replace in a 6 comprised of ND, UNC, Duke, UVa, FSU, Ga Tech.

Clemson's after all those in value to the Big Ten (whether states/territories/markets/academics; it's great in football as a brand sure, but we'd be getting 2 big ones in ND/FSU from that 6). FSU gives much bigger markets and similar football brand; Ga Tech/UVa/UNC/Duke give academics/markets/location/AAUs and basketball as well to round out the expansion.

ND is ND.

 

[Catreporter]

Why would ESPN want one big super conference? Expanded playoff, yes, but can't see the reasoning for them wanting all the powerhouses in one league. They need a big national audience, not a regional one.

 

[zeek55]

Why would ESPN want one big super conference? Expanded playoff, yes, but can't see the reasoning for them wanting all the powerhouses in one league. They need a big national audience, not a regional one.

Don't have to pay all these random small schools $30-40 million a year cuz they're in a conference with big dogs like Texas/OU.

Better to just pay 1 or 2 conferences all that money. Rest of the conferences get peanuts. A lot fewer mouths to feed the big $50 million a year packages.

We're fortunate to have a seat at the table in the Big Ten just like Vanderbilt is in the SEC.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Don't have to pay all these random small schools $30-40 million a year cuz they're in a conference with big dogs like Texas/OU.

Better to just pay 1 or 2 conferences all that money. Rest of the conferences get peanuts. A lot fewer mouths to feed the big $50 million a year packages.

We're fortunate to have a seat at the table in the Big Ten just like Vanderbilt is in the SEC.

ESPN negotiates with the conference, not the school. Each conference sells the media broadcast rights to the highest bidder.

If all the premium football viewership is tied up in a relative handful of "super programs" like Texas, Bama, OSU, ND, etc, then it is a business move to aggregate the rights and sell them on the open market. A super conference eliminates rival conferences for the best football content, leaving ESPN with few fallbacks for premium content. ESPN, Fox, NBC etc thus duke it out for the sole supplier of elite college football.

My thinking, as others have expressed, is that this assumption may fail in long run. You cannot be a super sports league without some depth of competition. This structure threatens that. It's not like owning the franchise to Friends or some other insanely popular media content.

 

[EvanstonCat]

It's a possibility as a 6th if ND says no, but I just doubt we add 3 more football powers when we can get more territory/academically inclined schools.

It's also possible we go bigger than 20 but I doubt that. Going to 20 will already be a big lift.

Just not sure who Clemson would replace in a 6 comprised of ND, UNC, Duke, UVa, FSU, Ga Tech.

Clemson's after all those in value to the Big Ten (whether states/territories/markets/academics; it's great in football as a brand sure, but we'd be getting 2 big ones in ND/FSU from that 6). FSU gives much bigger markets and similar football brand; Ga Tech/UVa/UNC/Duke give academics/markets/location/AAUs and basketball as well to round out the expansion.

ND is ND.

After the putrid additions of Rutgers and Maryland (though I'm hopeful that Schiano will somehow breathe life into that program), I don't think we focus as much on TV markets. Nor is this about territory or academics anymore. That formula didn't really work that well for us. This is now a battle for prestige, and UT and OU are gold and we will need to keep up - so yeah, KU and ISU do jack for us there and it ain't happening, unless Warren's a dumbass (the possibility of which scares me). The SEC excepting Atlanta has shit for TV markets (not to mention academics), and yet we find ourselves falling behind them in the game. Let's face it - it ain't metropolitan television sets that makes the SEC the SEC. It's fricking Bama (and every now and then Auburn or LSU). It's all about football cache.

With that, none of the remaining Big 12 teams should be sniffed at. It's Clemson and ND at the top, because it's all about CFP cred, and if you can't get one or both (assuming Clemson gets pulled into the SEC and ND tries to stay independent), u grab one or more of FSU, Miami (assuming one or both don't get pulled into the SEC) and maybe UNC (especially as they seem to be resurgent under Mack Brown), but only if they are willing to leave Duke behind (they have no value, since this is all about football, and even the future of hoops is questionable with the departure of Coach K. The rest of the ACC is probably not worth considering (maybe you could make an argument for one of the Virginia schools, but I think their time has passed). And maybe you go out West and grab USC and Oregon and possibly UDub, and maybe UCLA, Stanford or CU.

If I'm Kevin Warren though, (assuming Texas is too arrogant to pick up the phone or otherwise thinks we are too Yankee for them), I call up OU and tell them to come to the B1G, renew the rivalry with Nebraska, and where the path to the CFP looks a lot easier than joining and having to meat grind through the SEC. And tell the Presidents and ADs of the schools to let the AAU thing go - since that domino fell with Nebraska anyways. Or maybe if UT ends up in the SEC, TAMU is so pissed, that we could somehow lure them into the B1G. Doubtful, but maybe they hate UT that much.

Of course, Kevin Warren ain't Jim Delaney, so we ain't gonna call up OU (or Texas or TAMU) and we are going to sit on our asses and do nothing or do something stupid like picking up KU and ISU. Sonofabitch.

 

[zeek55]

ESPN negotiates with the conference, not the school. Each conference sells the media broadcast rights to the highest bidder.

If all the premium football viewership is tied up in a relative handful of "super programs" like Texas, Bama, OSU, ND, etc, then it is a business move to aggregate the rights and sell them on the open market. A super conference eliminates rival conferences for the best football content, leaving ESPN with few fallbacks for premium content. ESPN, Fox, NBC etc thus duke it out for the sole supplier of elite college football.

My thinking, as others have expressed, is that this assumption may fail in long run. You cannot be a super sports league without some depth of competition. This structure threatens that. It's not like owning the franchise to Friends or some other insanely popular media content.

Yes. My point is that in the future only 1 or 2 conferences will command super-sized payouts for their 30-40 schools and the rest will get much smaller payouts.

That's how the concentration works. Effectively it's just much more cost effective to have 2 big suppliers than 5.

There would be enough depth of competition in the Top two leagues for it not to matter.

 

[Katatonic]

Yes, but we likely have to wait until 2031-2032.

My hunch is the Big Ten will aim to grab 6 from the ACC (including ND). Add UNC/UVa/Duke/Ga Tech/FSU and ND to the Big Ten.

2 big football brands in ND/FSU, all the big tv markets from NYC to Florida in the Big Ten footprint.

Effectively, half of the Big Ten will be in the east coast area so that would give ND an incentive to join for geographic diversity.

It's a sensible approach for a 20 team conference that pays as much $ per team as the SEC.

Which is why had stated won't happen til closer to 2036, and one of those schools will have to approach the B1G to avoid any potential interference lawsuits.

Think the 4 ACC schools at the top of the list (not includng ND) are UNC, UVA, FSU and Clemson.

With Dook, GT and Miami fighting it out for the last 2 spots (or 1 spot if ND gives up on independence).

Normally, taking 2 schools in the same state isn't worth it, esp. one being a private school, but UNC may insist on bringing along its biggest BB rival.

Does GT bring enough of the GA/metro Atlanta market?

Is Miami being a former CFB power enough to take 2 schools from FL? (FL may be a big enough state to do that and may need both to counter the strength of UF).

In this scenario, may even have to expand to 22 teams - taking 8 ACC schools (or ND).

So 2 divisions of 11 teams (so each team plays 10 division games and 1 with a team from the other division).

Atlantic
PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, UNC, Dook, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami, ND

Heartland

dOSU, UM, MSU, IU, PU, NU, UI, UW, Minn, Iowa, Neb

Can see the SEC taking VT and NC ST as that opens up 2 more markets for them.

What sucks about this scenario is that we won't see the Cats win a division title (maybe once in a blue moon).

Of course, Kevin Warren ain't Jim Delaney, so we ain't gonna call up OU (or Texas or TAMU) and we are going to sit on our asses and do nothing or do something stupid like picking up KU and ISU. Sonofabitch.

Of course would feel better if Phillips was in charge, but Alvarez resigned as UW AD and is now a special adviser to Warren.

Alvarez may be a.stinkin' Badger, but he's also wiley.

And who knows, with what would basically be a merger of most of the ACC and the B1G, maybe we'll see Phillips end up being commish of the combined conf.

 

[zeek55]

Which is why had stated won't happen til closer to 2036, and one of those schools will have to approach the B1G to avoid any potential interference lawsuits.

Think the 4 ACC schools at the top of the list (not includng ND) are UNC, UVA, FSU and Clemson.

With Dook, GT and Miami fighting it out for the last 2 spots (or 1 spot if ND gives up on independence).

Normally, taking 2 schools in the same state isn't worth it, esp. one being a private school, but UNC may insist on bringing along its biggest BB rival.

Does GT bring enough of the GA/metro Atlanta market?

Is Miami being a former CFB power enough to take 2 schools from FL? (FL may be a big enough state to do that and may need both to counter the strength of UF).

In this scenario, may even have to expand to 22 teams - taking 8 ACC schools (or ND).

So 2 divisions of 11 teams (so each team plays 10 division games and 1 with a team from the other division).

Atlantic
PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, UNC, Dook, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami, ND

Heartland

dOSU, UM, MSU, IU, PU, NU, UI, UW, UM, Iowa, Neb

Can see the SEC taking VT and NC ST as that opens up 2 more markets for them.

What sucks about this scenario is that we won't see the Cats win a division title (maybe once in a blue moon).




Of course would feel better if Phillips was in charge, but Alvarez resigned as UW AD and is now a special adviser to Warren.

Alvarez may be a.stinkin' Badger, but he's also wiley.

And who knows, with what would basically be a merger of most of the ACC and the B1G, maybe we'll see Phillips end up being commish of the combined conf.

It's not explicitly just about the markets they bring, it's also about our schools going to those locations and the Big Ten alumni there.

Georgia is a UGa state, and Atlanta is a UGa market.

But Ga Tech + Big Ten alumni (including all the potential ACC schools coming to the Big Ten) as well as sending schools like Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State (potentially ND) to Atlanta is where you get value. Also don't underestimate recruiting impact as well.

Ga Tech/Duke/UVa all give you that in their states/regions, extra visits to those areas (as well as good academics to balance out the addition of say a FSU or Clemson).

Basically, I think we'd only take 2 football powers out of those next 6 (ND + 1 most likely FSU), and the rest will be there to fill in for extra markets/recruiting grounds/etc. (UNC/UVa/Duke/Ga Tech).


It's actually identical to Nebraska + Rutgers/MD except doubled. You got a football brand + 2 market/academic/location/recruiting ground plays; we'd be getting 2 football brands and 4 market/academic/location/recruiting ground plays with ND/FSU + UNC/UVa/Duke/Ga Tech.

 

[Katatonic]

^ Yeah, GA and even Atlanta is a UGA market, but Atlanta being considered the capitol of the SE (much like how Chicago is the capitol of the midwest), probably would pick GT over Dook or Miami, but think Clemson is a near must.

FSU is in the middle of a down period and don't think ND will win an NC anytime in the near future.

That's why think adding as many as 8 schools is a real possibility.

Also with that scenario, get a clean cut-off with divisions with the Heartland consisting of the old B1G plus Neb.

 

[zeek55]

^ Yeah, GA and even Atlanta is a UGA market, but Atlanta being considered the capitol of the SE (much like how Chicago is the capitol of the midwest), probably would pick GT over Dook or Miami, but think Clemson is a near must.

FSU is in the middle of a down period and don't think ND will win an NC anytime in the near future.

That's why think adding as many as 8 schools is a real possibility.

Also with that scenario, get a clean cut-off with divisions with the Heartland consisting of the old B1G plus Neb.

Yeah, basically what it comes down to, is there's no Texas left; you need to combine a couple schools to get a Texas at this point (football brand + academics + recruiting grounds + markets + Big Ten alumni there). There's not just 2 schools that could secure the Big Ten in a move to 16; I think we need a lot more recruiting ground access and extra markets in the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast.

Which is why I think the Big Ten going straight to 20 with ND and a bunch in the Southeast makes the most sense.

Big Ten decision makers also understand this, and that's why taking Maryland as our first bridge to the Southeast made perfect sense.

Fundamentally that's why Maryland got in instead of Missouri.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Which is why had stated won't happen til closer to 2036, and one of those schools will have to approach the B1G to avoid any potential interference lawsuits.

Think the 4 ACC schools at the top of the list (not includng ND) are UNC, UVA, FSU and Clemson.

With Dook, GT and Miami fighting it out for the last 2 spots (or 1 spot if ND gives up on independence).

Normally, taking 2 schools in the same state isn't worth it, esp. one being a private school, but UNC may insist on bringing along its biggest BB rival.

Does GT bring enough of the GA/metro Atlanta market?

Is Miami being a former CFB power enough to take 2 schools from FL? (FL may be a big enough state to do that and may need both to counter the strength of UF).

In this scenario, may even have to expand to 22 teams - taking 8 ACC schools (or ND).

So 2 divisions of 11 teams (so each team plays 10 division games and 1 with a team from the other division).

Atlantic
PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, UNC, Dook, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami, ND

Heartland

dOSU, UM, MSU, IU, PU, NU, UI, UW, Minn, Iowa, Neb

Can see the SEC taking VT and NC ST as that opens up 2 more markets for them.

What sucks about this scenario is that we won't see the Cats win a division title (maybe once in a blue moon).




Of course would feel better if Phillips was in charge, but Alvarez resigned as UW AD and is now a special adviser to Warren.

Alvarez may be a.stinkin' Badger, but he's also wiley.

And who knows, with what would basically be a merger of most of the ACC and the B1G, maybe we'll see Phillips end up being commish of the combined conf.

I actually quite like this outcome. You basically put PSU back into the East where they've always wanted along with most of the original ACC and a few others. Basically its a B1G + ACC merger + ND.

Then you get the Old B1G + Nebraska. Kind of traditional, somewhat balanced, and strong enough to compete with the SEC.

Makes a lot of sense actually. Except maybe we take VT instead of UVA.

 

[willycat]

It's a possibility as a 6th if ND says no, but I just doubt we add 3 more football powers when we can get more territory/academically inclined schools.

It's also possible we go bigger than 20 but I doubt that. Going to 20 will already be a big lift.

Just not sure who Clemson would replace in a 6 comprised of ND, UNC, Duke, UVa, FSU, Ga Tech.

Clemson's after all those in value to the Big Ten (whether states/territories/markets/academics; it's great in football as a brand sure, but we'd be getting 2 big ones in ND/FSU from that 6). FSU gives much bigger markets and similar football brand; Ga Tech/UVa/UNC/Duke give academics/markets/location/AAUs and basketball as well to round out the expansion.

ND is ND.

Maybe because UNC isn't going anywhere.

 

[corbi296]

Give me Clemson, Georgia Tech, Colorado and ND.

 

[zeek55]

Maybe because UNC isn't going anywhere.

If FSU and/or Clemson bolts the ACC, UNC will have to look at its future options.

No way UNC is going to be earning $40 million less per year than a Big Ten or SEC team when both conferences would take UNC in a heartbeat.

And if a school like UVa bolts, UNC will too.

 

[CatManTrue]

If FSU and/or Clemson bolts the ACC, UNC will have to look at its future options.

No way UNC is going to be earning $40 million less per year than a Big Ten or SEC team when both conferences would take UNC in a heartbeat.

And if a school like UVa bolts, UNC will too.

Isn’t this a moot point per your other thread? If the ACC can’t get out of their TV contract for another 10+ years then what’s the point. The other three conferences will make their moves long before that time period elapses.

 

[zeek55]

Isn’t this a moot point per your other thread? If the ACC can’t get out of their TV contract for another 10+ years then what’s the point. The other three conferences will make their moves long before that time period elapses.

My point is that why make a move *now* to 16-20 by the Big Ten, when there's a much better move on the table in 10 years?

Ohio State/Michigan/etc. all know this; they see the numbers themselves and they and the Big Ten office knows the ACC is tied to a bad contract.

That's how you get everyone to calm down and be patient.

I really don't think there's any moves to make for the Big Ten before 2030. Ohio State will at least give the conference 10-12 years to figure this out.

As for the Pac-12, they're sort of looking at Kansas/Texas Tech/Oklahoma State as their only real backup plan. Does that work for them? Or is that just mouths to feed that don't pay for themselves?

The ACC is sort of stuck, nobody available except ND can force them to reopen that TV contract. So are they going to take a WVU that may not move the needle at all?

Basically, my expectation is there won't be any moves until 2031-2032, teams may wait to see what the new playoff looks like and what the Big Ten/ACC/Pac-12 payouts are in 2031-2032. You can bet though ACC will try to do everything in its power to reopen that tv deal or get it extended (but doubtful that FSU/Clemson play ball on that, they're probably regretting agreeing to such a long GoR).

 

[its_the_sauce]

U of Chicago coming back into the mix???

 

[jimmyNU]

Totally agree with all this. What will be the point of a college football super conference with all the 4* and 5* kids going there and making six figure incomes from NIL?

Yes to the first part. Nearly all of the top talent will go to the semi-pro league. I think the remaining conferences will be more comparable to the current Ivy League in terms of talent. I expect the semi-pro league will break free of the NCAA and just pay players outright in additional to NIL money.

 

[CatManTrue]

My point is that why make a move *now* to 16-20 by the Big Ten, when there's a much better move on the table in 10 years?

Ohio State/Michigan/etc. all know this; they see the numbers themselves and they and the Big Ten office knows the ACC is tied to a bad contract.

That's how you get everyone to calm down and be patient.

I really don't think there's any moves to make for the Big Ten before 2030. Ohio State will at least give the conference 10-12 years to figure this out.

As for the Pac-12, they're sort of looking at Kansas/Texas Tech/Oklahoma State as their only real backup plan. Does that work for them? Or is that just mouths to feed that don't pay for themselves?

The ACC is sort of stuck, nobody available except ND can force them to reopen that TV contract. So are they going to take a WVU that may not move the needle at all?

Basically, my expectation is there won't be any moves until 2031-2032, teams may wait to see what the new playoff looks like and what the Big Ten/ACC/Pac-12 payouts are in 2031-2032. You can bet though ACC will try to do everything in its power to reopen that tv deal or get it extended (but doubtful that FSU/Clemson play ball on that, they're probably regretting agreeing to such a long GoR).

Why do you have faith that OSU and the other B1G powers will be so patient?

PSU allegedly had talks with the ACC during the last round of expansion. Do you think “the big three” will stand idly by for 10 years while the SEC consolidates power?

 

[zeek55]

Why do you have faith that OSU and the other B1G powers will be so patient?

PSU allegedly had talks with the ACC during the last round of expansion. Do you think “the big three” will stand idly by for 10 years while the SEC consolidates power?

Yes because the Big Ten was/is the #1 conference in terms of money generated per school from the time money entered college sports through this year and probably until 2023-2024 (and even when the SEC overtakes the Big Ten the difference shouldn't be that big once the Big Ten's new TV deal is signed). You think because of 5-10 years upcoming of the SEC earning a bit more money, that Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State are going to panic?

Penn State never spoke to the ACC regardless of what rumors fly around or what their fans type on message boards about hating the Big Ten; they were never going to take a $20-25 million per year reduction in conference payouts.

Again look at the composition of schools, the Big Ten is comprised of giant institutions that mostly dominate their states; there's very little "deadweight" in the Big Ten. We're the only private school and we're still a large private (relative to other privates) located outside of Chicago with great academics and a rich alumni base willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to compete in athletics, and maybe others would argue we're the least attractive school in terms of fan base size.

There's just no reason for an Ohio State not to be patient. They're a school with a top 5 athletics budget and top 5 athletics brand that's regularly in the playoff hunt and wins the Big Ten virtually every year when they're up. Their 105,000 fans in the seats get to see them win virtually every game on their home field.

The Big Ten is still by far the 2nd highest earning league even if we stay at 14 permanently, but if we make a move on the ACC, we can easily pass or match the SEC again, Ohio State knows that.