There has been a lot written on this board already this week by Cats fans and Irish faithful speculating on the inconsistency of the NU team and on the matchup Saturday. There has even been an Irish poster saying that the Cats are the team that lost to Akron, and so it really should not be a contest. Since I no longer live in the Midwest and only see the Cats (and the Irish) through the lens of Youtube TV, I wanted to do a little compilation on why the Cats have been inconsistent, and what it means Saturday.
To me, this has been one of the seasons of highest variance of performance for the Cats among the almost 50 years I have been following them. The roots of the inconsistency are not mysterious though, just multi-faceted:
Thorson's injury and recovery
The first three games of the season, including Akron, were largely affected by Thorson's recovery from ACL surgery. The necessary subbing in of Green affected how the offense flowed, and the playbook was limited when he was in. This clearly had an affect on the first three games of the season.
The continuing saga of the O-line, and the speculation as to why Fitz needs to clean house
There is a fundamental chicken and egg conundrum relative to the Cats offensive line. The key point to keep in mind is that they do not have, either through recruitment or development, a player who can consistently dominate his counterpart across the line of scrimmage. Whether this means that heads should role is not within my view from San Francisco Bay. What it does mean is that the Cats have employed team-based concepts relative to blocking, both for the running and passing game this year and for the last bunch of years. To use an engineering metaphor, the Cats passblocking is like and arch and the run blocking like a cantilever. Since they have no dominant stud who will blow away his defensive counterpart consistently, they require a cooridinated approach that gets people to the right place at the right time to both protect the QB on passes and create a screen to exploit for runs. When the group this year has its best six players, this works. When it does not, neither works. When 2 linemen are not available, the blocking takes a dive in quality, both for passing and running. Each game where the O-line (and hence the offense) has struggled, 2 linemen have been out with injury. Akron and Nebraska were the two clear examples of this.
The defensive backfield needed to gain experience early
The Cats replaced 2 very experienced safeties this year, a circumstance that was noted before the season but largely forgotten once it started. In the first 3 games, the safeties were still learning on the job. Since Akron, almost unnoted on this board, there have been very few poor decisions by them relative to supporting a cornerback or providing run support. Good wide receivers have made plays (think Nebraska and MSU), but the yards earned passing have come from good play by the other team, not breakdowns form the Cats.
The running back transitions were huge
In the first three games, Larkin was the Cats' offensive rock. As I noted in a previous post, a running back in the zone scheme the Cats use needs vision, quickness to the point of leverage, and leg strength to run through initial contact. He had it the first 3 games, and unfortunately Vault and Anderson don't have the strength, and Moten, probably due to nagging injury did not have the quickness. My guess is that Bowser, who had the requisite skills, was not performing relative to the other things asked of the key running back: identifiying blocking assignments, knowing when to release to the flat. Regardless, the fluidity of the RB position had a huge affect on the Michigan, MSU, Nebraska and Rutgers games. The last two games, he has provided the running skills the scheme needs, while Hanaoka has conspicuously been subbed in when pass blocking or recognition is needed. This is adequate but still a stepdown from Larkin.
The fast wide receivers turned out to be young
Before the season, I know I assumed that Riley Lees, Brown and Vault would be the receivers who could stretch the field. Brown and Vault have not been available in the slot, and Lees has, in his development for whatever reason (maybe size) not reached the point I expected. As a result, the first three games of the year, the offense relied on Nagle and Skowronek, both of whom are valuable, but neither of whom could create separation on their own. What has happened is that Jefferson and McGowan, who were not really on my radar before the season, have come forward the last 5 games as players who can stretch the field. They were probably not ready at start of the season, but are now, and because of that, the Cats can now challenge teams that rely on stacking the area 5 yards beyond the line.
The fact that the defense has two big play players
The Cats defense has been pretty solid, the above mentioned DB learning curve having been noted. However, the two players they have who are disruptive and can cause the opponent to scheme against are pretty much limited (by my view in California) to Gaziano and Hall. Simply put, in the games that Hall sat out, the other team had an extra degree of freedom. Fisher is a terrific player, but Hall is the disrupter among the linebackers.
Something has been physically wrong with Thorson the last 2 games
While early in the season, Thorson's mobility was limited and it clearly no longer is, there has been some(I am assuming physical) problem with his throwing the last two weeks. My guess is that his shoulder is dinged in some way, but throws he was making easily the first five games of the season have gone awry the last two. Fitz keeps things under wraps, and I am speculating wildly, but watching his throwing motion the last two weeks has been the equivalent of listining to nails on a blackboard to me. If I am correct, this could have a lot of consequences the next two weeks.
What does this mean for the game Saturday?
The good news for Cats fans is that most of the drivers of inconsistency are not present for the game Saturday. Thorson is mobile, the O-line has numbers, the D-backs have gained experience, Bowser is fitting in the offense, the wide receiving corps can match up against anybody now based on size and speed, and Hall is in the 2 deep. The biggest item of concern is Thorson's ability to throw. Compared to the multiple deficiencies present against Akron and Duke, the team that takes the field on Saturday is much, much better. However, if Bowser, Hall, or 2 O-linement are out, things cascade down. To me, assuming the aforementioned players are able to play the whole game, the outcome rests pretty much on Thorson's arm. If it is healthy, I think the Cats have an excellent chance over a very good but not Alabama good ND team. If it is not, favor the Irish by about 4.
To me, this has been one of the seasons of highest variance of performance for the Cats among the almost 50 years I have been following them. The roots of the inconsistency are not mysterious though, just multi-faceted:
Thorson's injury and recovery
The first three games of the season, including Akron, were largely affected by Thorson's recovery from ACL surgery. The necessary subbing in of Green affected how the offense flowed, and the playbook was limited when he was in. This clearly had an affect on the first three games of the season.
The continuing saga of the O-line, and the speculation as to why Fitz needs to clean house
There is a fundamental chicken and egg conundrum relative to the Cats offensive line. The key point to keep in mind is that they do not have, either through recruitment or development, a player who can consistently dominate his counterpart across the line of scrimmage. Whether this means that heads should role is not within my view from San Francisco Bay. What it does mean is that the Cats have employed team-based concepts relative to blocking, both for the running and passing game this year and for the last bunch of years. To use an engineering metaphor, the Cats passblocking is like and arch and the run blocking like a cantilever. Since they have no dominant stud who will blow away his defensive counterpart consistently, they require a cooridinated approach that gets people to the right place at the right time to both protect the QB on passes and create a screen to exploit for runs. When the group this year has its best six players, this works. When it does not, neither works. When 2 linemen are not available, the blocking takes a dive in quality, both for passing and running. Each game where the O-line (and hence the offense) has struggled, 2 linemen have been out with injury. Akron and Nebraska were the two clear examples of this.
The defensive backfield needed to gain experience early
The Cats replaced 2 very experienced safeties this year, a circumstance that was noted before the season but largely forgotten once it started. In the first 3 games, the safeties were still learning on the job. Since Akron, almost unnoted on this board, there have been very few poor decisions by them relative to supporting a cornerback or providing run support. Good wide receivers have made plays (think Nebraska and MSU), but the yards earned passing have come from good play by the other team, not breakdowns form the Cats.
The running back transitions were huge
In the first three games, Larkin was the Cats' offensive rock. As I noted in a previous post, a running back in the zone scheme the Cats use needs vision, quickness to the point of leverage, and leg strength to run through initial contact. He had it the first 3 games, and unfortunately Vault and Anderson don't have the strength, and Moten, probably due to nagging injury did not have the quickness. My guess is that Bowser, who had the requisite skills, was not performing relative to the other things asked of the key running back: identifiying blocking assignments, knowing when to release to the flat. Regardless, the fluidity of the RB position had a huge affect on the Michigan, MSU, Nebraska and Rutgers games. The last two games, he has provided the running skills the scheme needs, while Hanaoka has conspicuously been subbed in when pass blocking or recognition is needed. This is adequate but still a stepdown from Larkin.
The fast wide receivers turned out to be young
Before the season, I know I assumed that Riley Lees, Brown and Vault would be the receivers who could stretch the field. Brown and Vault have not been available in the slot, and Lees has, in his development for whatever reason (maybe size) not reached the point I expected. As a result, the first three games of the year, the offense relied on Nagle and Skowronek, both of whom are valuable, but neither of whom could create separation on their own. What has happened is that Jefferson and McGowan, who were not really on my radar before the season, have come forward the last 5 games as players who can stretch the field. They were probably not ready at start of the season, but are now, and because of that, the Cats can now challenge teams that rely on stacking the area 5 yards beyond the line.
The fact that the defense has two big play players
The Cats defense has been pretty solid, the above mentioned DB learning curve having been noted. However, the two players they have who are disruptive and can cause the opponent to scheme against are pretty much limited (by my view in California) to Gaziano and Hall. Simply put, in the games that Hall sat out, the other team had an extra degree of freedom. Fisher is a terrific player, but Hall is the disrupter among the linebackers.
Something has been physically wrong with Thorson the last 2 games
While early in the season, Thorson's mobility was limited and it clearly no longer is, there has been some(I am assuming physical) problem with his throwing the last two weeks. My guess is that his shoulder is dinged in some way, but throws he was making easily the first five games of the season have gone awry the last two. Fitz keeps things under wraps, and I am speculating wildly, but watching his throwing motion the last two weeks has been the equivalent of listining to nails on a blackboard to me. If I am correct, this could have a lot of consequences the next two weeks.
What does this mean for the game Saturday?
The good news for Cats fans is that most of the drivers of inconsistency are not present for the game Saturday. Thorson is mobile, the O-line has numbers, the D-backs have gained experience, Bowser is fitting in the offense, the wide receiving corps can match up against anybody now based on size and speed, and Hall is in the 2 deep. The biggest item of concern is Thorson's ability to throw. Compared to the multiple deficiencies present against Akron and Duke, the team that takes the field on Saturday is much, much better. However, if Bowser, Hall, or 2 O-linement are out, things cascade down. To me, assuming the aforementioned players are able to play the whole game, the outcome rests pretty much on Thorson's arm. If it is healthy, I think the Cats have an excellent chance over a very good but not Alabama good ND team. If it is not, favor the Irish by about 4.
