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To people who know things: What’s the win target?

NUCat320

Well-Known Member
Dec 4, 2005
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Six wins is comfortable?
Five is close?
Four is ‘make a run at the UC’?

I don’t know the answer, but five puts NU at 20-11, 11-9.

Thoughts?

Correct answer: Win the next one.

(ESPN matchup predictor has 2 likely wins, 5 likely losses, 3 toss-ups. Win the next one. I defined toss-ups as 60-40 or closer.)
 
The win target is Thursday. That's the only win that matters right now!
 
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Six wins is comfortable?
Five is close?
Four is ‘make a run at the UC’?

I don’t know the answer, but five puts NU at 20-11, 11-9.

Thoughts?

Correct answer: Win the next one.

(ESPN matchup predictor has 2 likely wins, 5 likely losses, 3 toss-ups. Win the next one. I defined toss-ups as 60-40 or closer.)
My mental target is 10-10 in conference which would be 4 more wins. I don't think that guarantees us anything but I think gives us a good shot at a play-in game at least. 5 would be pretty solidly in I think. This depends a bit on what happens in the B1G tourney too as you allude to - I'd say we really want to win 1 there but it depends on who we are matched up with how important or a painful a win/loss is.
 
Funny you should ask, as I was just reading Bubble Watch from the Athletic, which had this to say:

Northwestern (15-5, 6-3; NET: 40, SOS: 75): We’re just going to say it now, and probably not for the last time: The Wildcats’ nonconference schedule could cost them. It ranks 294th; it features just three opponents not in Quadrant 4; it features just one win, on a neutral floor, over Liberty. (Liberty is good, by the way, but still.) The Wildcats have the benefit of a) being a solid, veteran team capable of knocking off quality competition in a league hoping to put a bunch of teams in the NCAA Tournament, and right now that would be enough. But that non-league slate is going to be a drag on their resume from here on out to the point that sustaining this will require something like (give or take) 12 league wins. Do the Wildcats have that about them?​

 
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Six wins is comfortable?
Five is close?
Four is ‘make a run at the UC’?

I don’t know the answer, but five puts NU at 20-11, 11-9.

Thoughts?

Correct answer: Win the next one.

(ESPN matchup predictor has 2 likely wins, 5 likely losses, 3 toss-ups. Win the next one. I defined toss-ups as 60-40 or closer.)
10 Big Ten games remaining...
3 Big Ten Tournament games
6 NCAA games

the win target is 19.

but I'd settle for 5 of the next 10.
 
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All I know is that a win on Thursday means we can keep having conversations like this. A loss and.... well.... I don't even want to think about it.
 
We need at least 5 in the regular season. If one of them is against Purdue or at Rutgers that would make their resume stronger.
 
I don't necessarily know but I guestimate based on past patterns: 22-9 (13-7) is likely needed during the regular season to comfortably get into the tournament without having to win a game in the Big Ten tournament. There may be reasonable possibilities of getting in at 21-10 (12-8), 20-11 (11-9), or 19-12 (10-10) with conference tourney wins and/or other outside help.

There is some field of thought that 20 wins may be automatic entry but I think the strength of schedule during non-conference is a weakness that needs to be overcome. The selection committee has punished some bubble teams with weak non-conference schedules. What comes to mind for me is the 2017-18 Nebraska team that finished fourth in the conference with a 22-9 (13-5) regular season record and failed to make the NCAA tournament. The main difference between this year’s Wildcat team and the 2018 Nebraska team is that the conference had a down year where it was only rated the 5th best conference while this year it is more like 3rd, so our Wildcats have little more opportunities to boost its NCAA tourney chances with in-conference victories. Being at #49 NET rating as of 1/31/23 is below 2022 Oklahoma which was the highest rated team (#40) by NET to not make the tourney in 2022 but above #77 NET Rutgers which did make the 2022 tourney, so it’s in that zone of probable but not certain right now. This is how I'm viewing it now as it relates to what the targets are:

Regular season wins - chance to get into NCAA Tourney (notes)
24
-99% (a lock, even without a B1G tourney win)
23 - 90% (very likely in, even without a B1G tourney win)
22 - 80% (likely in, even without a B1G tourney win)
21 - 70% (probably in, but with room to make even more likely with a win in the B1G tourney)
20 - 60% (possibly in, but at least 1 win in B1G tourney probably needed )
19 - 50% (probably need at least 2 wins in B1G tourney + outside help with limited upsets in other conference tourneys to make chances more favorable)
18 or less - 0% (no chance to get in without a B1G tourney championship)

I would rather be safely off the bubble before I get my hopes too high, because I don't want to get my heart broken. I would rather "clinch" an at-large bid at around 22 victories and not worry about having to get a win or make a deep run (semi-finals or better) in the B1G tournament. So right now, I'm in a holding pattern where I see the possibility of making the Big Dance but I'm decidedly cautious about projecting them in now. 19-21 is still biting my nails zone
 
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Looking at the upcoming schedule, I really don't see more than two or three "possible" wins after our dud against Michigan. But regardless, this has been a surprising and interesting season that actually kept me engaged, unlike last season's continual close game flops that just left me frustrated. Remember when considering the record, we played Nebraska three times and Minnesota twice last year. This season, we only got each of them only once. I noticed Penn State has replaced us on the list of possible NCAA invites from CBS. Could make March 1 a very interesting game.
 
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