Tournament Resume (as of 2/13/17)

[ColumbusCatFan1]

W/L: 19-6 (8-4)
RPI: 33 (Non Con: 46)
SOS: 80 (Non Con: 180)
Vs Top 25: 1-3
Vs Top 50: 3-5
Vs Top 100: 8-6
Last 10: 7-3

Best Win: @Wisconsin (#23)
Bad Losses (100+): None

CHANGES SINCE 2/8

Improvements across the board! Obviously, beating the Badgers was huge as NU now has the marquee victory the resume was previously lacking, but that win in Madison also provided a strong boast to the RPI (+10).

Things to keep an eye on in the BIG: Iowa fell to #105 and Indiana (now #93) took quite a hit too. Nebraska is still hovering the high 80s. A further decline from the Hoosiers and Huskers could drop the 'Cats top 100 record under .500.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

Thanks for your continuing effort putting this together for us.

 

[DaCat]

Knocking off Maryland will be another big step for this team. We took them to the wire the past couple of years and couldn't finish it. Even without Lindsey, I like our chances this year.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

2/17 UPDATE

W/L: 19-7 (8-5)
RPI: 39 (Non Con: 46)
SOS: 63 (Non Con: 190)
Vs Top 25: 0-5
Vs Top 50: 3-6
Vs Top 100: 8-7
Last 10: 7-3

Best Win: @Wisconsin (#26)
Bad Losses (100+): None

 

[SmellyCat]

Ok, as far as I can tell, there are 22 one-bid leagues. Which means 46 bids are up for grabs. Here are the top 62 teams, according to my combination of a few ratings systems:

1 Gonzaga
2 Villanova
3 Kansas
4 North Carolina
5 Louisville
6 Baylor
7 Kentucky
8 Florida
9 Oregon
10 Duke
11 West Virginia
12 Virginia
13 Florida St.
14 Arizona
15 Purdue
16 UCLA
17 Cincinnati
18 Creighton
19 Wisconsin
20 Butler
21 SMU
22 St. Mary's
23 Notre Dame
24 Maryland
25 Oklahoma St.
26 Xavier
27 South Carolina
28 Wichita St.
29 Northwestern
30 Minnesota
31 Dayton
32 Iowa St.
33 Michigan
34 Virginia Tech
35 VCU
36 Miami (FL)
37 USC
38 Arkansas
39 Kansas St.
40 Wake Forest
41 Michigan St.
42 California
43 TCU
44 Clemson
45 Illinois St.
46 Seton Hall
---------------
47 MTSU
48 Tennessee
49 Marquette
50 Syracuse
51 Georgetown
52 Indiana
53 Houston
54 Rhode Island
55 Nevada
56 Texas Tech
57 Providence
58 UT-Arlington
59 Pittsburgh
60 Alabama
61 Georgia Tech
62 Akron

As long as we stay away from the 40s, we should be fine. So let's stay away from the 40s.

 

[phatcat]

22-10 ought to do it, unless we lose the last three by 75 points total

 

[jjjjjjj]

Ok, as far as I can tell, there are 22 one-bid leagues. Which means 46 bids are up for grabs.

Teams from 2+ bid leagues that unexpectedly win their conference tournaments might have something to say about that.

 

[mikewebb68]

Teams from 2+ bid leagues that unexpectedly win their conference tournaments might have something to say about that.

Yes, but as this exercise shows, if we hold position, it would be impossible for there to be enough teams to do this for us to be overtaken.

 

[jjjjjjj]

Yes, but as this exercise shows, if we hold position, it would be impossible for there to be enough teams to do this for us to be overtaken.

Sure, but NU's position won't hold. It will change every time it plays, and will even change when it doesn't play, as other teams on the list win and lose. And as good a list as this probably is, it is not a definitive window into the minds of the Selection Committee.

 

[mikewebb68]

Sure, but NU's position won't hold. It will change every time it plays, and will even change when it doesn't play, as other teams on the list win and lose. And as good a list as this probably is, it is not a definitive window into the minds of the Selection Committee.

Agreed but were are a middle seed by virtually anyone's assessment at this point, which means we are ahead of a whole bunch of teams for the Dance. The remaining teams we are playing simply cannot do that much damage to our ranking. Combine that with the fact that we have an excellent shot at the 4 seed (with the NCAA lock that comes with that) and the fact that we are now at full strength and have not lost three in a row all season even while not at full strength, and I like our chances. A lot.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Teams from 2+ bid leagues that unexpectedly win their conference tournaments might have something to say about that.

This is true, especially for upper mid/high major leagues.

There are talented teams capable of winning their conference tournaments that are currently on the fringe of/outside the bubble.

We should root against the likes UConn, Richmond, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Indiana, Northern Iowa, Colorado, and Vanderbilt during championship week.

 

[jjjjjjj]

Agreed but were are a middle seed by virtually anyone's assessment at this point, which means we are ahead of a whole bunch of teams for the Dance. The remaining teams we are playing simply cannot do that much damage to our ranking. Combine that with the fact that we have an excellent shot at the 4 seed (with the NCAA lock that comes with that) and the fact that we are now at full strength and have not lost three in a row all season even while not at full strength, and I like our chances. A lot.

You make good points, and I sure hope you are right. But this is a team that just scored three points in a 10-minute span at home against the last place team. If the offensive troubles continue, NU is perfectly capable of finishing 1-4 or even 0-5.

 

[SmellyCat]

Teams from 2+ bid leagues that unexpectedly win their conference tournaments might have something to say about that.

Right, that's why I included the whole list, even the locks. Even if there are bid thieves, there are still only 46 bids available. A team ranked 29th should be safe, even with bid thieves. A team ranked 40 might be invited, but they'll have to sweat on Selection Sunday.

And yes, this is by no means a definitive list, especially as I don't consider the RPI as highly as a committee guy might. A lot will change in the next three weeks, but I figure I'll stay on top of this because I like doing this sort of thing.

Like MikeWebb, I like NU's chances a lot right now as it stands, but if NU plays like it did last night, the ranking will obviously go down a bit. Let's just beat Illinois (and Indiana while we're at it) this week and take the suspense out of it.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Ok, as far as I can tell, there are 22 one-bid leagues. Which means 46 bids are up for grabs. Here are the top 62 teams, according to my combination of a few ratings systems:

1 Gonzaga
2 Villanova
3 Kansas
4 North Carolina
5 Louisville
6 Baylor
7 Kentucky
8 Florida
9 Oregon
10 Duke
11 West Virginia
12 Virginia
13 Florida St.
14 Arizona
15 Purdue
16 UCLA
17 Cincinnati
18 Creighton
19 Wisconsin
20 Butler
21 SMU
22 St. Mary's
23 Notre Dame
24 Maryland
25 Oklahoma St.
26 Xavier
27 South Carolina
28 Wichita St.
29 Northwestern
30 Minnesota
31 Dayton
32 Iowa St.
33 Michigan
34 Virginia Tech
35 VCU
36 Miami (FL)
37 USC
38 Arkansas
39 Kansas St.
40 Wake Forest
41 Michigan St.
42 California
43 TCU
44 Clemson
45 Illinois St.
46 Seton Hall
---------------
47 MTSU
48 Tennessee
49 Marquette
50 Syracuse
51 Georgetown
52 Indiana
53 Houston
54 Rhode Island
55 Nevada
56 Texas Tech
57 Providence
58 UT-Arlington
59 Pittsburgh
60 Alabama
61 Georgia Tech
62 Akron

As long as we stay away from the 40s, we should be fine. So let's stay away from the 40s.

Nice and helpful list, Smelly. Thank you for your efforts.

 

[mikewebb68]

You make good points, and I sure hope you are right. But this is a team that just scored three points in a 10-minute span at home against the last place team. If the offensive troubles continue, NU is perfectly capable of finishing 1-4 or even 0-5.

How many points did they score in the last 7 minutes of both halves, when it actually mattered? And I will wager you screennames we don't finish 0-5.

 

[jjjjjjj]

How many points did they score in the last 7 minutes of both halves, when it actually mattered? And I will wager you screennames we don't finish 0-5.

I'm sure I saw somewhere that the whole game matters--or do they not count points scored in the first 13 minutes of each half anymore?

In any case, I'm not betting against NU, nor am I predicting 0-5. I'm far from confident, but I'm hoping that Lindsey bounces back and that the rest of the team channels the Wisconsin game at least two or three times.

 

[mikewebb68]

I'm sure I saw somewhere that the whole game matters--or do they not count points scored in the first 13 minutes of each half anymore?

In any case, I'm not betting against NU, nor am I predicting 0-5. I'm far from confident, but I'm hoping that Lindsey bounces back and that the rest of the team channels the Wisconsin game at least two or three times.

Of course the whole game matters, but their is a positive correlation between how teams close out halves and their winning percentage. Witness when Indiana came roaring out of the gate at the start vs. us and when Wisky did the same to start the second half vs us. Did not matter much since we dominate the remainder of those halves...

 

[FightNorthwestern]

Of course the whole game matters, but their is a positive correlation between how teams close out halves and their winning percentage. Witness when Indiana came roaring out of the gate at the start vs. us and when Wisky did the same to start the second half vs us. Did not matter much since we dominate the remainder of those halves...

Eh, I'm sure there's also a positive correlation between how teams start out halves and their winning percentage. Moreover, I'm willing to bet how teams play the entire game and their winning percentage has a pretty high correlation.