Tournament Resume (as of 2/6/17)

[ColumbusCatFan1]

W/L: 18-5 (7-3)
RPI: 33 (Non Con: 48)
SOS: 79 (Non Con: 186)
Vs Top 25: 0-3
Vs Top 50: 2-5
Vs Top 100: 8-5
Last 10: 7-3

Best Win: Wake Forest (#27)
Bad Losses (100+): None

CHANGES SINCE 2/3

Wake Forest had a very nice week which helped the Non Con SOS (+7). Iowa squeaks into the top 100 category, however, Penn State (#94) is close to dropping out. Minimal changes to the RPI (+1; non con +3).

 

[FloridAlum]

Pardon my ignorance, but does the NCAA selection committee look at Pomeroy at all?

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Pardon my ignorance, but does the NCAA selection committee look at Pomeroy at all?

As things currently stand, no. The committee takes into account RPI, SOS (especially non-con), record vs top 25, 50, 100, marquee victories, number of bad losses, how you are playing at the end of season (including injuries) and the famous, "eye test". Some metrics (marquee wins, non con SOS) are valued higher than others (number of bad losses).

IMHO, Ken Pom's ratings are far superior to several of the current metrics the committee uses (RPI in particular). There was a recent meeting about adding different criterion (Pom, Sagarin, etc) in the future.

 

[rmndcat]

Dropped out of the Top 25, but I read the fact that Purdue jumped 7 spots after beating us an acknowledgement that NU was a quality win.

 

[Alan Smithee]

Well, yes, beating us to a pulp was a factor, along with beating Maryland. Purdue had a good week.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

We need to win tomorrow

 

[Dukeboy]

We are in the dance if the following happens:

W vs Illinois (19-5, 8-3)
L @ Wisconsin (19-6, 8-4)
L vs Maryland (19-7, 8-5)
W vs Rutgers (20-7, 9-5)
W @ Illinois (21-7, 10-5)
L @ Indiana (21-8, 10-6)
W vs Michigan (22-8, 11-6)
L vs Purdue (22-9, 11-7)

Question: If we lose anymore than this, are we in at 21-10, 10-8?

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

We are in the dance if the following happens:

W vs Illinois (19-5, 8-3)
L @ Wisconsin (19-6, 8-4)
L vs Maryland (19-7, 8-5)
W vs Rutgers (20-7, 9-5)
W @ Illinois (21-7, 10-5)
L @ Indiana (21-8, 10-6)
W vs Michigan (22-8, 11-6)
L vs Purdue (22-9, 11-7)

Question: If we lose anymore than this, are we in at 21-10, 10-8?

It'd be a stressful selection Sunday, but I think the 'Cats sneak in as long as they get one in Indy (22-11). Two would be a lock.

 

[Styre]

We are in the dance if the following happens:

(Ws against IL, Rutgers, IL, Michigan)

Question: If we lose anymore than this, are we in at 21-10, 10-8?

The Michigan game is huge in this hypothetical. If we win the four games you outline, right now our RPI heading into the BTT projects to 37, which is a lock for a tournament berth. If we beat Illinois twice and Rutgers, but lose to Michigan at home, our RPI projection heading into the BTT drops all the way to 50, which most likely lands us in the NIT. Obviously, the more wins we get in the BTT after that, the better our NCAA chances become.

 

[mikewebb68]

I think that Indiana is out of the ncaa hunt by the time we play them, so that one is a good possibility as well.

 

[wildelk2]

Dukeboy I think we're in going 10-8 in conference. Playing a better nonconference schedule will pay dividends this season as compared to the tomato cans we kicked around last year. That Dayton win is still impressive, and even though the Texas win won't mean much it sent a signal to the Big 10 that we're not going to suck. Also factor in the Big 10 tournament. Say we go 1-1 and finish 22-11 and 11-9 I simply don't see the NCAA leaving us out, as well as it will be good enough for a 7th to 11th seed for sure. But first things first. We need this game to stay out of a prolonged funk as Wisconsin and Maryland are next up. WR needs to push the Cats, pull the Cats , will the Cats over Ill-nois e tonight!!!

 

[DaCat]

I don't even need to do all these calculations and play out all these scenarios because in my mind we are going to be 12-6 or better in conference. Makes it a lot easier, so I refuse to worry about all the noise.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

2/8 UPDATE

W/L: 18-6 (7-4)
RPI: 43 (Non Con: 47)
SOS: 81 (Non Con: 188)
Vs Top 25: 0-3
Vs Top 50: 2-5
Vs Top 100: 8-6
Last 10: 6-4

Best Win: Wake Forest (#30)
Bad Losses (100+): None

CHANGES SINCE 2/6

Losing to Illinois stings a bit (-10 RPI), but it wasn't a devastating blow. With today being Wednesday, there has been minimal change to the SOS (expect more movement as the week progresses).

Penn State's (#79) upset of Maryland and Iowa's (#97) moderate resurgence are helping NU's cause. It should be noted that Illinois, NU's worst loss, comes in at #54.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

@ ColumbusCatFan1 re: "Penn State's (#79) upset of Maryland and Iowa's (#97) moderate resurgence are helping NU's cause."

Can you elaborate? What else outside of our control could happen this week among the B1G wins/losses to pile on for the benefit of NU's tournament chances?

 

[Styre]

Losing to Illinois stings a bit (-10 RPI), but it wasn't a devastating blow. With today being Wednesday, there has been minimal change to the SOS (expect more movement as the week progresses).

Still many paths to the tournament. Easiest appears to be wins over Rutgers, @Illinois, Michigan and possibly a BTT win as well.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Can you elaborate?

Penn State was ranked 94th and close to dropping outside of the top 100 as of Monday. Their win over Maryland last night vaulted them back into the 70s. Iowa was in the hundreds last week, but now holds a ranking of 97. If those two squads were to fall out, NU's best selling point (8-6 vs top 100) would take a hit.

What else outside of our control could happen this week among the B1G wins/losses to pile on for the benefit of NU's tournament chances?

Conference play is a bit of a zero sum game because everybody plays each other. It would be ideal for the 'Cats to notch many top 50-100 victories as possible since none of NU's current wins are close to breaking the top 25. IMHO (in addition to PSU and Iowa), pull for Nebraska since the 'Cats have two wins over them and the Huskers are starting to fade (#86).

This week, I'd like to see the following occur:

(#97) Iowa over (#25) Minnesota
(#86) Nebraska over (#17) Wisconsin
(#79) Penn St. over (#54) Illinois

This almost goes without saying, but every NU fan should be rooting hard for Wake Forest, Dayton, Texas, Butler, and ND going forward.

 

[Tolstoy32]

#54 just beat NU at home. You don't think that'll change the numbers?

 

[NURoseBowl]

Still many paths to the tournament. Easiest appears to be wins over Rutgers, @Illinois, Michigan and possibly a BTT win as well.

May need one beyond this; thinking either @Indiana or a second win at the BTT. Then I'd feel a bit more comfortable.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

#54 just beat NU at home. You don't think that'll change the numbers?

?

 

[mikewebb68]

#54 just beat NU at home. You don't think that'll change the numbers?

These were posted AFTER that game, genius. It's not that hard to troll, and you can't even do that correctly! Still want to help out?

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

As things currently stand, no. The committee takes into account RPI, SOS (especially non-con), record vs top 25, 50, 100, marquee victories, number of bad losses, how you are playing at the end of season (including injuries) and the famous, "eye test". Some metrics (marquee wins, non con SOS) are valued higher than others (number of bad losses).

IMHO, Ken Pom's ratings are far superior to several of the current metrics the committee uses (RPI in particular). There was a recent meeting about adding different criterion (Pom, Sagarin, etc) in the future.

I've actually heard that the committee will start considering KenPom, Sagarin and BPI this year.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I've actually heard that the committee will start considering KenPom, Sagarin and BPI this year.

Interesting. I knew there was a meeting in January, but I was under the impression that any changes wouldn't take effect until 2017-18 at the earliest. Perhaps, they'll shed some light on this during the selection preview this month.

FWIW, here's the link that I'm referencing.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/at-las...lly-embracing-advanced-metrics-193136189.html