Updated potential NCAAT destinations...

[ricko654321]

So people seemed interested in the previous iteration of this... I'll update based on currently available info and bracket projections. FWIW, this is based on the assumption that we are most likely (~60%?) to end up as a 8 or 9 seed, somewhat less likely (~35%?) to end up as a 7 or 10 seed, and fairly unlikely to end up as 6 or 11 seed.

I think a loss on Thursday to OSU or Rutgers would prob drop us to a 10. Assuming we take care of business there, think we should be at least a 9. Beating Maryland gets us up to the 8 range, with perhaps some possibility of 7? Make it to the championship, and I think we'd be a solid 7. Win the whole thing, and possibly grab a 6? All (slightly educated) guesswork here, depends on who we play / beat / lose to, and what other teams around the nation do. But that's the general framework. So based on that here are probabilities with potential top seeds in those groups for the first 2 rounds...

20% Tulsa (1 Kansas, 2/3 Baylor)
20% SLC (1 Gonzaga, 3/ maybe 2 Zona)
17.5% Greenville (1/maybe 2 UNC, unlikely to match up against 3/4 Duke)
15% Indy (2 Louisville, 2/3 Kentucky)
12.5% Buffalo (1 Nova, unlikely to match up against other 4)
7.5% Sacramento (2 Oregon, 3/2 UCLA)
5% Orlando (3/ maybe 2 Florida, 3/ maybe 2 FSU)
2.5% Milwaukee (3/4 Butler, Purdue or other 4)

Obviously that is all very much subject to change based on what happens in conf tourneys. And there are some other more subtle factors that go into why certain sites are more or less likely:
e.g. 1 Indy is a bit higher than you might expect for the 2s bc it's closest yet the likely host teams aren't from the B1G, giving us advantage over other 7/10 seeds if we land on those lines
e.g. 2 Buffalo I think is a bit lower than you might expect bc I think the 8/9 ACC teams leaving the Southeast bc UNC is in Greenville might get funneled there, also the other B1G 8/9 teams Mich MSU and maybe Md are closer and more likely to get sent there over us
e.g. 3 Milwaukee is so low because the likely host teams are in our conference / Butler has already played us in reg season

Anyways the upshot of it all is who knows where we'll go, due to the structure of the selection it's really hard to project. Have fun and Go Cats!

 

[Alaskawildkat]

Intertesting. The two top bracket gurus (Palm and Lunardi respectively) have us going to either Buffalo or SLC at this point. Sacramento seemed to be a likely destination a week ago and Greenville the week before that.

 

[ricko654321]

Intertesting. The two top bracket gurus (Palm and Lunardi respectively) have us going to either Buffalo or SLC at this point. Sacramento seemed to be a likely destination a week ago and Greenville the week before that.

I wouldn't put too much stock in a single point projection (for matchup and location) from any one of those guys -- it's mostly just looking at all of those and then sort of a crapshoot as to which specific spot each team ends up on. Their goal is to predict seed lines and who makes the tournament, not individual matchups, especially at this point when so much changes every single day.

 

[SmellyCat]

I wouldn't put too much stock in a single point projection (for matchup and location) from any one of those guys -- it's mostly just looking at all of those and then sort of a crapshoot as to which specific spot each team ends up on. Their goal is to predict seed lines and who makes the tournament, not individual matchups, especially at this point when so much changes every single day.

Yeah, I'm always amused at comments people make about these draws, where people complain that Duke has an easy path or Kentucky should always be in Louisville's region, or whatever.

Though I'm optimistic at our team's chances, I think 8/9 (which are essentially the same) are the best bets, with 10 happening only if we lose Thursday and other bubble teams move up. I'd say the #1 seeds are almost set in stone now, so pick your poison: KU in Tulsa, North Carolina in Greenville, Villanova in Buffalo, or Gonzaga in Salt Lake City. If you want Indy, NU has to play itself to a 7 or 10, it looks like.

 

[Eurocat]

I think if we win the championship of the Big Ten you have to think we are higher seeded than 6.

 

[ricko654321]

I think if we win the championship of the Big Ten you have to think we are higher seeded than 6.

If Purdue is looking at a 4 seed after winning the reg season and at 25-6 / 14-4 with a number of quality wins, I don't think adding 4 more wins (and likely 3 quality wins) to a 10-8 conf record gets us higher than a 6 personally.

But... I say let's do it and find out!!

 

[SmellyCat]

Yeah, I'd much rather find out and be disappointed by the 7 seed than never find out.

 

[Secho99]

Intertesting. The two top bracket gurus (Palm and Lunardi respectively) have us going to either Buffalo or SLC at this point. Sacramento seemed to be a likely destination a week ago and Greenville the week before that.

As Wichita State's coach pointed out the other day in his postgame comments, Jerry Palm's not a very good bracketologist. Of 88 bracketologists tracked by the Bracket Project over a 5-year period, Palm ranks 61st. So he's prominent, but not particularly good at it. Lunardi ranks 22nd, which is better but still not amazing given his stature.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

 

[ricko654321]

As Wichita State's coach pointed out the other day in his postgame comments, Jerry Palm's not a very good bracketologist. Of 88 bracketologists tracked by the Bracket Project over a 5-year period, Palm ranks 61st. So he's prominent, but not particularly good at it. Lunardi ranks 22nd, which is better but still not amazing given his stature.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

While I have no objection to your observation here, I find it slightly curious that the Wich St coach has spent enough time focused on this that he knows the rankings of specific beacketology projectors.... didn't he have opponents to game plan for??

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

This is fun to think about! My thoughts in order of most to least likely:

Distinct possibilities
Tulsa: 8/9 and 7/10 games.
SLC/Greenville. Both have 8/9 and 6/11 games.
Indianapolis. There are two 7/10 games here. If we get sent here we would have a strong contingent. Would love to go here!
Buffalo: 8/9 game.

Semi-long shot
Sacramento. We could be a 7 or 10 seed. There's also a 6/11.

Unlikely spots
Milwaukee. We could be seeded 6 or 11, but not likely. Very small chance to go here, unfortunately.
Orlando. We almost certainly will not be seeded 4, 5, 12, 13. Going here would be a major surprise.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I've also looked at hotels in most of these locations. Greenville is definitely the hardest place to get a room on that weekend at a reasonable price. I've made a placeholder reservation in Asheville NC.

 

[NJCat]

I've also looked at hotels in most of these locations. Greenville is definitely the hardest place to get a room on that weekend at a reasonable price. I've made a placeholder reservation in Asheville NC.

Asheville has some of the best craft beer in the world. A great place to stay. Try the Wicked Weed brewery.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Asheville has some of the best craft beer in the world. A great place to stay. Try the Wicked Weed brewery.

It would be fun to visit there. After all these years, though, I'll go anywhere to see the Cats in the tourney!

 

[ricko654321]

This is fun to think about! My thoughts in order of most to least likely:

Distinct possibilities
Tulsa: 8/9 and 7/10 games.
SLC/Greenville. Both have 8/9 and 6/11 games.
Indianapolis. There are two 7/10 games here. If we get sent here we would have a strong contingent. Would love to go here!
Buffalo: 8/9 game.

Semi-long shot
Sacramento. We could be a 7 or 10 seed. There's also a 6/11.

Unlikely spots
Milwaukee. We could be seeded 6 or 11, but not likely. Very small chance to go here, unfortunately.
Orlando. We almost certainly will not be seeded 4, 5, 12, 13. Going here would be a major surprise.

I don't really object to your ordering here except I'd say that Orlando is more likely than Milwaukee. Just wanted to (and sorry to repeat as we've said this before) point out that those seeding combinations aren't locked in... we have pretty good visibility on the 1 seeds at this point so the 8/9 games are fairly unlikely to move, but nearly everything else (maybe ex 1-2 #2 seeds) is still subject to change in conference tourneys and based on the committee's whims.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I don't really object to your ordering here except I'd say that Orlando is more likely than Milwaukee. Just wanted to (and sorry to repeat as we've said this before) point out that those seeding combinations aren't locked in... we have pretty good visibility on the 1 seeds at this point so the 8/9 games are fairly unlikely to move, but nearly everything else (maybe ex 1-2 #2 seeds) is still subject to change in conference tourneys and based on the committee's whims.

Makes sense. It's exciting to thing about this. Let's win a few more games!

 

[SmellyCat]

I just love how the conversations are so different this year than in others. I keep having things come up for Thursday or Friday where I have to say, "I won't be able to tell you if I can make it until Sunday night."