VIDEO of game-ending sequence: Michigan at Northwestern (Mar 01, '17)

[FeliSilvestris]

Here it is:


Excellent execution by the cats in the final inbound buzzer-beating play.

But why didn't the Wolverines use up an extra second in the previous possession????
With the game tied, they didn't risk that much in the event their final shot didn't count because of the buzzer.

Anyhow, NU did what it should to take advantage of the opportunity.

Well done, cats! Congrats!

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

The defense by Law was phenomenal from the 43 second to 1 minute mark

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Law was great all day!

 

[nuwildfan2]

Here it is:

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Excellent execution by the cats in the final inbound buzzer-beating play.

But why didn't the Wolverines use up an extra second of the clock in the previous possession????
With the game tied, they didn't risk that much if their final shot didn't count because of the buzzer.

Anyhow, NU did what it should to take advantage of the opportunity.

Well done, cats! Congrats!

Even in your "positive" post you have a way of being mad.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Even in your "positive" post you have a way of being mad.

Just made a fair question about what the other guys did or didn't. It is not NU's fault if they mismanaged their clock. NU did what it had to do, which is take advantage of the opportunity however it came.

 

[Bwm57]

Here it is:

View embedded media

Excellent execution by the cats in the final inbound buzzer-beating play.

But why didn't the Wolverines use up an extra second in the previous possession????
With the game tied, they didn't risk that much in the event their final shot didn't count because of the buzzer.

Anyhow, NU did what it should to take advantage of the opportunity.

Well done, cats! Congrats!

So, you're going to pretend like you are a fan now??
I'm anxiously awaiting your convoluted logic as to how all of your negative posts were actually positive posts.

 

[nycat33]

Here it is:

View embedded media

Excellent execution by the cats in the final inbound buzzer-beating play.

But why didn't the Wolverines use up an extra second in the previous possession????
With the game tied, they didn't risk that much in the event their final shot didn't count because of the buzzer.

Anyhow, NU did what it should to take advantage of the opportunity.

Well done, cats! Congrats!

Offenses usually want to take a shot with a few seconds left in the clock for a chance to score on an offense rebound especially in college basketball. At worst if the other team gets a rebound and they have a full court pass for a win. Teams never score on these full court passes so better off taking the shot at little early

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Offenses usually want to take a shot with a few seconds left in the clock for a chance to score on an offense rebound especially in college basketball. At worst if the other team gets a rebound and they have a full court pass for a win.

What you say makes more sense when the offensive team is behind, when missing the final shot (or failing to get it off before the buzzer)means a sure loss. With the game tied, failing to score at the buzzer simply means OT. Of course you'd rather win in regulation if possible at all, but you have to consider the possibility that the opponent gets the rebound and takes advantage of any time left to score on you. Whatever their thinking (if any, it may have been just a mental error by the shooter) it evidently backfired on them.

Still the cats deserve much credit for managing to score in such a tiny amount of time, from such an unfavorable spot.

 

[D_C_B]

Feli: at the end of the game, with 1 or 1.5 or 2 or 2.5 seconds left, are the odds of an offensive rebound and putback to win the game better than the odds of a long-bomb pass and miracle shot by the opponent to lose the game? Yes or no?

Simple question. No need for any words more than either yes or no. So what it is: yes or no?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Another look at the final play from ESPN.
Northwestern wins on miraculous final play
LINK

 

[nycat33]

Another look at the final play from ESPN.
Northwestern wins on miraculous final play
LINK

View embedded media

It's pretty basic basketball strategy in a tie or if your losing (outside the NBA) that you want to take the final shot with 2.5 seconds left in the game to get a chance a second shot. So Michigan played the odds correctly, it just didn't work for them

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Feli: at the end of the game, with 1 or 1.5 or 2 or 2.5 seconds left, are the odds of an offensive rebound and putback to win the game better than the odds of a long-bomb pass and miracle shot by the opponent to lose the game?

Impossible to answer not knowing a lot of information: WHERE are the players of both teams, how good are defenders at defensive rebounding, how tall are the players involved, etc, etc.
What is extremely easy to calculate is this:
What is the probability that the offense loses in regulation the tied game if they wait until the last possible instant to release the shot?
Answer: ZERO.
Whether the shot falls in or not, and whether it even counts, the O canNOT possibly lose in regulation by taking the final shot in the tied game: either wins or goes into OT!

 

[FeliSilvestris]

It's pretty basic basketball strategy in a tie or if your losing (outside the NBA)

The two situations are VASTLY DIFFERENT. As explained already, if the game is tied you can afford waiting until the last possible instant to try to get the shot, because your "penalty" for missing or failing to get the shot off is simply going into OT (as opposed to losing).
If you are BEHIND it's completely different for obvious reasons.

 

[D_C_B]

Impossible to answer not knowing a lot of information: WHERE are the players of both teams, how good are defenders at defensive rebounding, how tall are the players involved, etc, etc.
What is extremely easy to calculate is this:
What is the probability that the offense loses in regulation the tied game if they wait until the last possible instant to release the shot?
Answer: ZERO.
Whether the shot falls in or not, and whether it even counts, the O canNOT possibly lose in regulation by taking the final shot in the tied game: either wins or goes into OT!

Nonsense. You're just filibustering because you refuse to say "yes." Your credibility is zero. I gave you a chance to begin building some but you refused to take it. Sad.

 

[mikewebb68]

The two situations are VASTLY DIFFERENT. As explained already, if the game is tied you can afford waiting until the last possible instant to try to get the shot, because your "penalty" for missing or failing to get the shot off is simply going into OT (as opposed to losing).
If you are BEHIND it's completely different for obvious reasons.

Oh cool. Felidolt making another beyond ridiculous semantic argument, Please tell us more, your posts are like listening to the brilliance that is Daryl Griffith.

 

[nycat33]

The two situations are VASTLY DIFFERENT. As explained already, if the game is tied you can afford waiting until the last possible instant to try to get the shot, because your "penalty" for missing or failing to get the shot off is simply going into OT (as opposed to losing).
If you are BEHIND it's completely different for obvious reasons.

You are failing to look at risk vs reward in a tie game. A missed shot at the buzzer goes into OT and you have 50/50 chance of winning in overtime. You take a shot with 2.5 seconds left and you have a 25% at winning on an offense rebound and 2% chance at losing. Missing a shot with 2.5 seconds left still likely means you are going to overtime where you still have the same 50/50 chance of winning.

 

[D_C_B]

Don't bother explaining. He's just cornered by his own terrible logic and refuses to admit it. Nobody on this planet actually believes that with a second or two left on the clock after a misssd shot, the odds of a Hail Mary pass to lose are higher than the odds of an offensive putback to win. It's frankly about a 50-1 odds difference. His credibility is less than zero on this.

 

[nycat33]

Don't bother explaining. He's just cornered by his own terrible logic and refuses to admit it. Nobody on this planet actually believes that with a second or two left on the clock after a misssd shot, the odds of a Hail Mary pass to lose are higher than the odds of an offensive putback to win. It's frankly about a 50-1 odds difference. His credibility is less than zero on this.

But I want to hear him admit it.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

You are failing to look at risk vs reward in a tie game. A missed shot at the buzzer goes into OT and you have 50/50 chance of winning in overtime. You take a shot with 2.5 seconds left and you have a 25% at winning on an offense rebound and 2% chance at losing. Missing a shot with 2.5 seconds left still likely means you are going to overtime where you still have the same 50/50 chance of winning.

Wrong. The last-instant shot with a tied game gives you about 40% prob of winning outright (that is a modest shooting percentage, it depends on the shooter and the shot, and you don't really need a long-distance 3P) WITH ZERO probability of losing in regulation!!!

And you still have the possibility of winning in OT if you miss the last-instant shot (~50% but possibly higher if your team is deeper than the opponent).

The correct decision was the last-instant shot. It's quite obvious.

 

[nycat33]

Wrong. The last-instant shot with a tied game gives you about 40% prob of winning outright (that is a modest shooting percentage, it depends on the shooter and the shot, and you don't really need a long-distance 3P) WITH ZERO probability of losing in regulation!!!

And you still have the possibility of winning in OT if you miss the last-instant shot (~50% but possibly higher if your team is deeper than the opponent).

The correct decision was the last-instant shot. It's quite obvious.

Could you show your math for both situations? That 40% is roughly the same in both situations.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Could you show your math for both situations? That 40% is roughly the same in both situations.

Prob of winning with a 40% (not particularly high percentage shot) last-instant shot:
40% + 60%*50% = 40%+30% = 70%

First term is obvious (you make the shot and win outright, which would occur with a 40% prob).

Second part: there is a 60% probability of missing the shot (meaning going into OT), and if that happens you'd still win with roughly 50% chance.

 

[spartcat]

I recommend that everybody cut the crap and just look at the faces in the picture that introduces the ESPN video. That is what a thriller is all about. Thanks for posting.

 

[D_C_B]

Prob of winning with a 40% (not particularly high percentage shot) last-instant shot:
40% + 60%*50% = 40%+30% = 70%

First term is obvious (you make the shot and win outright, which would occur with a 40% prob).

Second part: there is a 60% probability of missing the shot (meaning going into OT), and if that happens you'd still win with roughly 50% chance.

What about the other half, genius?: the part about shooting with a couple seconds left so you can get the rebound/putback?

What does that do to your brilliant odds? And how does that compare to the chance of a successful Hail Mary by the opponent if you don't get the rebound.

That, after all, is the actual question -- in case you forgot while concocting these pathetic attempts at deflection and deception.

You're such an intentional obfuscator and BS artist (and I use "artist" in a Maplethorpian way).

 

[FeliSilvestris]

What about the other half, genius?: the part about shooting with a couple seconds left so you can get the rebound/putback?

What does that do to your brilliant odds? And how does that compare to the chance of a successful Hail Mary by the opponent if you don't get the rebound. .

I don't care about calculating YOUR odds. Do it yourself.

Who the hell knows what's the chance of getting an O rebound if you miss with time left on the clock? It depends on a lot of factors (personnel on the court, players deployment, etc). Other things being equal, the D has a far better chance of getting the rebound (typically D rebounds far exceed O rebounds). And even if you do get the OR you still need to put the ball in in the little time left, and the odds of that will depend on the spot where you get the OR. The D is generally far better positioned to get a short bound near the basket. The O's odds are better with long rebounds, but that denies the possibility of a high-percentage quick put-back.

Bottom line, there is no point in allowing the opponent the POSSIBILITY of winning in regulation, when by ensuring you take the LAST SHOT the best the opponent can do is to pray for over time (where you can still win with at least a 50% chance) and even taking a relatively low percentage shot you have a SEVENTY PERCENT probability of winning the game (with the final shot or in OT). If you cannot yet see it, consider asking for help around you. It's really not that difficult.

 

[nycat33]

I don't care about calculating YOUR odds. Do it yourself.

Who the hell knows what's the chance of getting an O rebound if you miss with time left on the clock? It depends on a lot of factors (personnel on the court, players deployment, etc). Other things being equal, the D has a far better chance of getting the rebound (typically D rebounds far exceed O rebounds). And even if you do get the OR you still need to put the ball in in the little time left, and the odds of that will depend on the spot where you get the OR. The D is generally far better positioned to get a short bound near the basket. The O's odds are better with long rebounds, but that denies the possibility of a high-percentage quick put-back.

Bottom line, there is no point in allowing the opponent the POSSIBILITY of winning in regulation, when by ensuring you take the LAST SHOT the best the opponent can do is to pray for over time (where you can still win with at least a 50% chance) and even taking a relatively low percentage shot you have a SEVENTY PERCENT probability of winning the game (with the final shot or in OT). If you cannot yet see it, consider asking for help around you. It's really not that difficult.

Using the same 40% fg percentage and 50% chance of winning in OT. Michigan's offensive rebound percentage is 24% and I assume a shot off an offensive rebound Michigan has a 50% chance of making.There is also a 2% of the other team getting a rebound on a missed and making a crazy full court pass and hitting a shot.

So 70% chance of winning if you take a shot with no time left as you state.
and a 76% chance of winning if you take the shot with time left.

Seems like a no-brainer to me but that rarely stops you...

 

[D_C_B]

I don't care about calculating YOUR odds. Do it yourself.

Who the hell knows what's the chance of getting an O rebound if you miss with time left on the clock? It depends on a lot of factors (personnel on the court, players deployment, etc). Other things being equal, the D has a far better chance of getting the rebound (typically D rebounds far exceed O rebounds). And even if you do get the OR you still need to put the ball in in the little time left, and the odds of that will depend on the spot where you get the OR. The D is generally far better positioned to get a short bound near the basket. The O's odds are better with long rebounds, but that denies the possibility of a high-percentage quick put-back.

Bottom line, there is no point in allowing the opponent the POSSIBILITY of winning in regulation, when by ensuring you take the LAST SHOT the best the opponent can do is to pray for over time (where you can still win with at least a 50% chance) and even taking a relatively low percentage shot you have a SEVENTY PERCENT probability of winning the game (with the final shot or in OT). If you cannot yet see it, consider asking for help around you. It's really not that difficult.

Lol, You're the one who said that the best move is to shoot with 0.01 on the clock, not me. You said it was because that was the best odds. You wrote on and on about it.

I called you on your stupidity.

So now you call this MY odds, in all caps, no less?

What a joke you are. You're wrong. They ain't my odds for sure. They're your odds, the basis of your contrararian point. Problem is: you're wrong and you know it.

Says who? Oh, only every coach in the history of coaching.