Where do the big conference wins come from?

[Sec.112]

... Let's say:

* 10 conference wins - That includes two wins over Illinois as well as wins over Iowa and Maryland.
That doesn't leave a whole lot of wiggle room. I'm not sure this group is ready for that level of consistency.
* Even if they do reach 10 wins, I think they need to win AT LEAST one (and maybe two) against OSU, Michigan and others. For the tournament, they're going to need a few more quality wins besides the two non-conf wins.

I keep thinking about Michigan's resume last year in a medicore B10 - 23-13 (10-8). And that was one of the last teams in the tournament.

... b) A HUGE piece of this is will be who they beat. They are going to need more than 10 wins if 10 of those wins are:

PSU
Minnesota
Nebraska (2)
Rutgers (2)
Iowa
Illinois (2)
Maryland

I'm looking for quality wins and hoping they find them. I'm not sure 12 wins gets them in if the other two are Michigan and OSU.

I'd feel much better about 11 wins if they lose to - let's say - Maryland and Iowa from the group above and get three wins from some combination of Michigan State, OSU, Purdue (2), and IU (2).

To continue my pre-conference direction, I need those big conference wins, and I'm really not sure where they land. I'm not saying NU can't do it, but it's going to be tough. Maybe I'm just not accustomed to this as a fan of a reasonable team. (A lot also depends on how healthy Pardon is.)

Once again, for those of us who are more statistically challenged in March, I don't think there's any way NU gets in if 10 wins come from the PSU, Minnesota, etc.-group above. As it is right now, Michigan, MSU, Minnesota and OSU are bunched with NU, 30-50 on KenPom.

1) I don't think they sweep the 10 games above. I hope they only lose two to - let's say - Maryland Iowa or Minnesota.
2) Do the Cats have two or three wins in them against Indiana(2), Michigan, Purdue (2) or Ohio State?

* I'm hoping they can take Maryland.
* I'm hoping they can find one against an up-and-down Indiana team.
* Then one more against OSU or Michigan?

11 with that resume miiiiiiiiight allow them to slip in under the wire. I'd prefer 12 wins with two good solids.

Any ideas?

 

[mikewebb68]

11+ one BTT win (and we would have a favorable matchuo if we win 11) should be enough, as there would likely be 9 top-100 wins out of those 11.....

 

[Sec.112]

Michigan and several of the last four teams in last year's tourney tell NU it needs one or two top 25 (RPI) wins. None of the last four went winless against the top 25.

Also, the wins need to be more than top 100. Only Wichita State had less than three top 50 wins, and their SOS killed the other three teams.

Michigan (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0
KenPom SOS rank ...46
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 235

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

To continue my pre-conference direction, I need those big conference wins, and I'm really not sure where they land. I'm not saying NU can't do it, but it's going to be tough. Maybe I'm just not accustomed to this as a fan of a reasonable team. (A lot also depends on how healthy Pardon is.)

Once again, for those of us who are more statistically challenged in March, I don't think there's any way NU gets in if 10 wins come from the PSU, Minnesota, etc.-group above. As it is right now, Michigan, MSU, Minnesota and OSU are bunched with NU, 30-50 on KenPom.

1) I don't think they sweep the 10 games above. I hope they only lose two to - let's say - Maryland Iowa or Minnesota.
2) Do the Cats have two or three wins in them against Indiana(2), Michigan, Purdue (2) or Ohio State?

* I'm hoping they can take Maryland.
* I'm hoping they can find one against an up-and-down Indiana team.
* Then one more against OSU or Michigan?

11 with that resume miiiiiiiiight allow them to slip in under the wire. I'd prefer 12 wins with two good solids.

Any ideas?

As much as I like looking ahead/contemplating paths to the post season, I personally find it challenging to get specific without 7 or 8 conference data points to reference. Too many variables to account for in early January. For example, that win over Wisconsin in 2015-16 didn't look like much early on, but come March it was linchpin of the 'Cats (failed) NIT resume.

By the end of this month we'll have a much clearer post season picture to assess. In the meantime, I'm cheering for NU, Butler, Notre Dame, Texas, Wake Forest, and Dayton.

 

[Medill90]

I wouldn't have a clue how to predict the conference season after watching the last week of Big Ten basketball.

The big positive for NU is that they have a very seasoned team and two strong seniors who are very disciplined. Add to that, NU has an easier schedule this year.

But pretty much anyone can beat anyone, and that includes Rutgers being a tough win with a coach who has completely changed the culture in a short nine months.

Starting with two road games between Xmas and New Years was not a gift from Santa. I was impressed w NU's composure at MSU, especially during the first half.

 

[mikewebb68]

Michigan and several of the last four teams in last year's tourney tell NU it needs one or two top 25 (RPI) wins. None of the last four went winless against the top 25.

Also, the wins need to be more than top 100. Only Wichita State had less than three top 50 wins, and their SOS killed the other three teams.

Michigan (one of the last several in)
vs RPI rank
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0
KenPom SOS rank ...46
KenPom NonConf SOS rank ... 235

As you have indicated though, Michigan had only 16 top 100 opportunities since our conference was not as balanced last year. We will have far more than that due to the balance of the conference. If we win 11 of those (Michigan only had 4 wins) we are in, imo

 

[backdoorpass]

It's a good question. Last night's game was a "must win." Oops. We have to find 9 or 10 more wins in conference before the BTT. I don't think that it matters that much who we beat and who we lose to. We just need the winning record in-conference.

 

[Sec.112]

Man, did I not know what I was talking about with Minnesota? That is not the same team we've seen for the last couple years.

Is that really going to be a top-4 or -5 team in the conference?!? Ick!!