Wildcat Progress Tracker - January 30

[Hungry Jack]

Monday January 30:

Record
Overall:18-4
B1G: 7-2
Home: 12-1
Away: 4-2
Neutral: 2-1 (Texas-W, ND-L, Dayton-W)

Power Ranking
RPI: 32 (source = ESPN)
Ken Pom: 30
Sagarin: 30
Sagarin SOS: 58
Coaches Poll:26
AP: 25 (first time ranked in AP this season)

Quality Wins (RPI<50)
Dayton 33 (N)
Wake 30 (H)

Notable Wins (RPI<100)
Nebraska 57 (H,A)
Penn St 69 (A)
Ohio St 75 (A)
Indiana 79 (H)

Bad Losses (RPI > 150)
-

Bracketology
Lunardi/ ESPN - 7 South (Indy)
Palm / CBS - 7 Midwest (Sacremento)

Advanced Esoteric Metrics:
Charlie Hall appearances: 4
Jordash Meter: Hyperbolic statements about Jordan Ash: 9,767
John Ashcroft Tie-ins: 1

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Brown looks good so I am dumping my man crush on Ashcroft!

 

[Hungry Jack]

Brown looks good so I am dumping my man crush on Ashcroft!

John Ashcroft may be down, but he's not out.

 

[Kelly_32]

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed today

 

[gradeck]

Not that region projections are worth much but Lunardi has us at 7 (Indianapolis) and Palm has us at 7 (Orlando) as of today, 1/30.

 

[Kelly_32]

I'd be happy with Indy although I'd like to avoid playing a #2 in the second round.

 

[gradeck]

The region is pretty much going to be a crapshoot, I think. They're not going to get to a #3 or #4 seed where that is taken into account.

One would think that with some bigger wins (against Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin) a rise in the rankings and a #6 seed could theoretically be possible. I really dare not consider anything more than that...

 

[hdhntr1]

I'd be happy with Indy although I'd like to avoid playing a #2 in the second round.

We just need to win a couple of big ones to avoid that.

 

[Sec.112]

Lose to Purdue.
Beat Illinois.
Lose to Wisc.
Lose to MD.
Beat Rutgers.
Beat Illinois.
Lose to Ind.
Lose to Mich
Lose to Purdue.

Putting NU at 10-8 for conference play. I think one of the losses above could be a win, but looking at worst-case scenarios here....

I'd like to add DC2's scenario to the thread. For me, this is the most basic, bottom-line realistic outcome . And I'm still not sure these 10 wins get the job done.

I think there's all sorts of weak bubble scenarios with 10 or 11 wins. I think the lowest-level, solid-bid scenario begins with 11 wins with one against Maryland, Purdue or - dare I suggest - Wisconsin (oh, to dream).

 

[mikewebb68]

I'd like to add DC2's scenario to the thread. For me, this is the most basic, bottom-line realistic outcome . And I'm still not sure these 10 wins get the job done.

I think there's all sorts of weak bubble scenarios with 10 or 11 wins. I think the lowest-level, solid-bid scenario begins with 11 wins with one against Maryland, Purdue or - dare I suggest - Wisconsin (oh, to dream).

Michigan is another team that has NOT won a true road game all season, including a loss at Iowa and an inexplicable thumping by Illinois. Feel better about our chances for 11 now?

Add the following facts to the mix as well

1) We get Maryland at home as the final game of a stretch in which the Terps play 4 games in 11 days and have their biggest game of the year at Wisky right after us if standings hold to form
2) By the time we play Indiana again, it is possible be completely out of contention by that time
3) We get some decent rest in the next two weeks at a critical juncture with the injuries
4) 5 of our last 8 are at home, and the three road games are not long trips (Madison, then Champaign/Bloomington back-to-back)

With all of these factors in mind, it is not difficult to see a path to 12 wins, or even more.

 

[Sec.112]

...With all of these factors in mind, it is not difficult to see a path to 12 wins, or even more.

With Lindsey, I don't think 12 wins is out of the question at all. Even without him, it might be possible, but don't ask me to bet on it.

I just want to be sitting here on Selection Sunday fat and confident that NU will be getting in. I'm not sure any scenario less than 12 wins AND without a win against Wisconsin, Purdue or Maryland gets me there.

 

[mikewebb68]

With Lindsey, I don't think 12 wins is out of the question at all. Even without him, it might be possible, but don't ask me to bet on it.

I just want to be sitting here on Selection Sunday fat and confident that NU will be getting in. I'm not sure any scenario less than 12 wins AND without a win against Wisconsin, Purdue or Maryland gets me there.

I agree, 11 wins is not a lock, with the caveat that 11 wins + 1 BTT win, for me IS a lock. Any combination of 12 gets us there, imo.

 

[SmellyCat]

I think it's important to note that although we're disappointed by Wednesday's result and a bit nervous about Lindsey (after all, we're Northwestern fans), that WAS a game most thought we'd lose, and most bracketologists still have us as a seventh seed even in the wake of the loss. Though some might say we're on the bubble, we're much safer right now than most bubble teams. We just need a few more wins to get there.

 

[mikewebb68]

I think it's important to note that although we're disappointed by Wednesday's result and a bit nervous about Lindsey (after all, we're Northwestern fans), that WAS a game most thought we'd lose, and most bracketologists still have us as a seventh seed even in the wake of the loss. Though some might say we're on the bubble, we're much safer right now than most bubble teams. We just need a few more wins to get there.

Excellent, excellent point. KenPom dropped us a grand total of TWO spots, from 28 to 30.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

Anyone share the thought that the team just ahead of us in the rankings took down top ten Kentucky today - suggesting that we are in good company to be able to do likewise when the opportunity presents itself?

 

[JournCat]

Anyone share the thought that the team just ahead of us in the rankings took down top ten Kentucky today - suggesting that we are in good company to be able to do likewise when the opportunity presents itself?

We have a good shot at one in the last game of the season against Purdue. Winning road games anywhere in the Big Ten is hard.

 

[Gladeskat]

Anyone share the thought that the team just ahead of us in the rankings took down top ten Kentucky today - suggesting that we are in good company to be able to do likewise when the opportunity presents itself?

No. I'm more concerned about losing to Ilinois, like PSU lost to Rutgers.

 

[JournCat]

No. I'm more concerned about losing to Ilinois, like PSU lost to Rutgers.

Too many painful losses to Illinois to remember, but Collins has this team in a good place. I think we'll come out strong Tuesday.

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

Michigan is another team that has NOT won a true road game all season, including a loss at Iowa and an inexplicable thumping by Illinois. Feel better about our chances for 11 now?

Add the following facts to the mix as well

1) We get Maryland at home as the final game of a stretch in which the Terps play 4 games in 11 days and have their biggest game of the year at Wisky right after us if standings hold to form
2) By the time we play Indiana again, it is possible be completely out of contention by that time
3) We get some decent rest in the next two weeks at a critical juncture with the injuries
4) 5 of our last 8 are at home, and the three road games are not long trips (Madison, then Champaign/Bloomington back-to-back)

With all of these factors in mind, it is not difficult to see a path to 12 wins, or even more.

Good points. Hopefully, we get healthier. Assuming we have scottie and tap, i think our best chances for a win are rutgers, illinois and maryland.
But we may be favorites against michigan as well.

 

[mikewebb68]

No. I'm more concerned about losing to Ilinois, like PSU lost to Rutgers.

Rutgers is arguably playing better than the Illini right now.