nm

Ceci n'est plus une pipe

I thought Fitz's demeanor at his press conference yesterday deserved another column.

I see a lot of talk about firing JON, but when I look at the statistics, the 2022 scoring defense is actually ranked in the 3rd quartile nationally at #82 out of 131 teams at 28.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the 2022 scoring offense is in the 4th quartile at #118 out of #131 teams at 18.6 points per game. I understand the 2021 defense under "JON" immediately gave up almost twice what was given up under Hankwitz in his last year and that it is about the same so far in 2022. However, the Bajakian offense is not doing much more than Mick McCall's the last couple of years and it is actually doing worse than what a normal McCall offense might get (mid-20s average and as high as 29.2 as recently as 2017):

NU TEAM SCORING POINTS PER GAM (2012-2022), SEASON RECORD
2012 Offense - 31.7, Defense - 22.5, Record (10-3)
2013 Offense - 26.2, Defense - 27.1, Record (5-7)
2014 Offense - 23.0, Defense - 25.2, Record (5-7)
2015 Offense - 19.5 , Defense - 18.6, Record (10-3)
2016 Offense - 26.0, Defense - 22.2, Record (7-6)
2017 Offense - 29.2, Defense - 20.1, Record (10-3)
2018 Offense - 24.2, Defense - 23.2, Record (9-5)
2019 Offense - 16.3, Defense - 23.6, Record (3-9)
2020 Offense - 24.7, Defense - 15.9, Record (7-2)
2021 Offense - 16.6, Defense - 29.0, Record (3-9)
2022 Offense - 18.6, Defense - 28.1, Record (1-6)

The 2020 Offense did improve significantly from McCall's last year in 2019 by than 8 points per game, but that was probably mostly ensured by having an experienced Big-Ten graduate transfer quarterback in Peyton Ramsey plus the irregularities of the COVID-shut down year and plus being in a position to improve off of the troubled year replacing a 4-year starting quarterback in 2019. The 2021 and 2022 scoring offense has dropped back to where McCall left off, which was similar to McCall's worst years. Why isn't more heat placed on the offensive coaching when it is actually ranked worse as a unit nationally than the defense? Is it just the stark contrast with the drop off in defensive performance between Hankwitz and JON? Is it that in continuing to rely on Tresselball, we expect more out of the defense?

Mike has the Giants tied with pack in 4Q. Pay him 6M or whatever it takes

Just tweak a few things!

Luke Donald had achieved a #1 world ranking under the coaching of Pat Goss, but:

"Donald believes a change in philosophy is needed if he is to add a major championship to his CV and sees a need to address his flaws from tee to green."

https://www.skysports.com/golf/news...hes-in-a-bid-to-improve-performance-in-majors

This whole change of philosophy thing just came to mind for some reason.

Some musings on Trustee thinking....

1) College football has seen an unprecedented wave of change over the last few years - pandemic, transfer portal changes, NIL, SEC-B1G expansion, etc. This volatile environment has made everyone uncomfortable. Even programs that have embraced the change (i.e. Miami, Michigan State, and Texas A&M) are not feeling great. Very few, if any, programs are feeling comfortable.

2) Northwestern has undergone major leadership chaos/changes over the last few years. The solid and steady stewardship of Morty Shapiro and Jim Phillips was replaced with chaotic turnover in both positions. Both positions saw replacements named, who then had to be replaced with others.

3) The Pat Ryan gift for a new stadium has been an amazing blessing for the University, but has also diverted almost every available resource into getting it right. Lots of focus on the stadium throughout every level of the athletic department.

In such a volatile environment, Fitz is seen as a guy who is loyal, steady and high-quality while the rest of the organization undergoes major changes. Fitz is someone who always shows up at the right time, says the right thing, does the right thing. In other words, the Trustees are happy to let Fitz be Fitz while they figure out how to react to the volatile environment inside and outside of NU.

However, change is not out of the question...

4) The new AD Derrick Gragg is active, listening to lots of constituents, and perhaps most importantly, knows that football is the most important sport at NU. Gragg knows that the university needs to get football right.

5) The trustees act more like an 'insiders club' seeking consensus. You rarely, if ever, see Trustees speaking out of turn. They are all part of the same purple cabal (unlike say, Auburn or Texas or Ok State, where the Trustees vie for power among themselves). The trustee group is a consensus-building operation.

6) The trustees are sports fans. They were all in Dublin together for the Nebraska game. They were all in Salt Lake City for the NCAA tourney game vs Gonzaga. They hang out in the Wilson Club. They don't need NU sports to go 11-1 to be happy. But they really don't like going 1-11. Trustees may be rich, but they don't like to look stupid. By being 1-11 in the last 12 games, Fitz is starting to make them look stupid.

In the whisperings that I've heard, it is now possible for Trustees to cautiously say "Is Fitz the right guy? Is Fitz over his skis? Is Fitz the right person for this new environment? Why would Fitz hire JON?" Some are wondering if Fitz's greatest talent is "convincing us the trustees that he's the best Northwestern can do? Are we being duped? Is it time for a change?" These questions were rarely, if ever, contemplated 12 months ago. I believe the leash is getting shorter...

Bottom line:
- Massive change in college football over last few years
- Massive change at Northwestern
- Trustees seek consensus amongst themselves
- Being 1-11 over last twelve games is now opening the floodgates to question Fitz's competence
- The leash may be shorter than many presume

1. You’ve got your QB set now. Cats will always need a mobile QB to have any chance in the Bigten. Don’t even bother with another Hunter Johnson or Ryan Hilinski.

2. Everyone inside and outside the program knows JON has to go. He’s been terrible everywhere he’s been and NU no different. It’s the head coaches responsibility to recognize the mistake and fix it NOW!

3. The cats will always be able to come up with an RB or two and a couple WR’s and TE’s. The key is O-line, D-line and LB. The current LB’s are awful and OL and DL have be substandard last 2 years.

4. Focus the recruiting and protocol pick ups on fast, athletic LB’s and nasty linemen on both side of the ball. Too many cats and not enough Dogs!

The win in Dublin was great in person.
The loss in Evanston for homecoming was not great in person.
I am headed to Iowa City with the boys from 576 Lincoln for our annual road game.
I hope I can witness another win in person. I have never been to Kinnick, or to the University of Iowa, and am looking forward to visiting a new place.
Go Cats!

Fitz is great for the program for countless reasons. But I think a lot about how the way he handles change differs from the best coaches out there.

Think about Alabama's trajectory under Saban. Early in his tenure they were absolutely terrifying on D. Their offense was painful to watch, especially considering the talent they had. That was the formula Saban believed would generate championships (he wasn't wrong). He pushed back on changes that were sweeping college football in the mid-2010s, famously responding "is this what we want football to be?" to a question about up-tempo, no huddle, spread offenses.

But to his credit, Saban saw the writing on the wall. He's rebuilt Alabama into one of the most consistently high-powered offenses in the game. Lo and behold, he continues winning championships.

At the end of the day, the premier program in CFB was willing to entirely reinvent itself to adapt to the changing football landscape. Do we see Fitz willing to do the same?

Ferentz junior needs a game to build off of.

In this epic battle of bad versus, bad, what unit comes out on top - I think Iowa hits 30 but only with the help of two defensive TDs given that NU is a turnover machine. NU will cough it up at least 4 times.

Then join us next week when OSU goes for 100 at Ryan Field.

All of Fitz' goals are still in front of him!

PS - I really like Sullivan but yesterday should have been his 7th start, not first.

It is not as if we have played a 'Murderers Row' of opponents up until this point. However, other than the Wisconsin game, we have not been blown out. Yes, we have been humiliated on a weekly basis, but the scores have not been lopsided (other than Wisconsin). That is about to change. Iowa will look like an Air Raid offense against us. Ohio State will not take a knee and have mercy. Minnesota has a twelfth year QB and and NFL RB, the will motor boat us. Purdue has under achieved all year. They will likely wake up for one week. Illinois will ask Mrs. Lincoln how was the play.
I feel bad for the players and their parents.

Per Rittenberg:

Login to view embedded media

HOFer died today at age 100.

"we need to execute". "We were a few plays away". Yada yada yada. No accountability for Jon or Fitz. Nothing will change. Death sprial continues.

Had we gotten mauled at least it might have instigated change.

It’s only used in sports context, and it sounds effing stupid. I hate it.

How many schollies for 2023? I’m surprised that Collins focused on guards with roper snd barnhiser and berry being back and only hunger and Nicholson for bugs. Thoughts?

FloridAlum loved limericks:

There once was a DC named JON.
Whose defense was like a wan-ton
It wiggled to the right
When it was supposed to stay tight
and got eaten along with Sichuan

Beat Iowa!