belated +/- for the struggle against Western Michigan

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I wasn't going to run the numbers at all, since WMU is not close to a Power 6 team. but changed my mind because it was a tight game with no garbage time.

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	WMU Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Barnhizer	39	63	56	+7	+4.7	+11.7
Buie	39	63	56	+7	+8.1	+15.1
Nicholson	18	32	26	+6	+2.2	+8.2
Hunger	5	5	2	+3	-0.2	+2.8
Clayton	22	30	30	+0	+1.3	+1.3
Preston	15	24	26	-2	-0.5	-2.5
Martinelli	12	19	20	-1	-1.7	-2.7
Langborg	35	54	46	+8	-11.9	-3.9
Berry	15	25	33	-8	-2.2	-10.2

Ty Berry had a rough night, especially when Preston was playing the 5. We got outscored 20-10 in 5 short segments totaling 5.5 minutes. Thats some bad defense.
Langborg's Player Adjustment of -11.9 reflects a lot of missed 3-pointers and 3 turnovers. The team was +8 with him on the court, but he was hurting the team.

Of the 5 man lineups, the Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Langborg/Buie "big boy" lineup only got one segment midway through the first half, outscoring WMU 10-3 in 3 minutes. It was NU's best stretch of the game.
We did not see Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Berry/Buie at all.

For the season (WMU and Dayton games) here are some of our better pairings

Nicholson / Martinelli / Barnhizer 27-17 in 13 minutes
Preston / Martinelli / Barnhizer 27-14 in 13 minutes

In fact, all lineups that include both Martinelli and Barnhizer are "winning" 60-39 in about 29 minutes. Thats an 82.2 - 53.4 pace.
All other lineups are "losing" 74-86 in about 51 minutes. Thats roughly a 58.0 - 67.5 pace.

 

[GatoLouco]

I was curious about it before the season and, for now, the Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Langborg/Buie is my favorite lineup. Martinelli brings in match up problems Berry does not. And Berry ain't finding his shot right now.

 

[SmellyCat]

PWB - Thanks for the numbers. I know you've explained it before, but can you please explain your methodology for your "Player Adjustment?" I understand missed threes and turnovers (as mentioned above) play into it, but how do you arrive at a number? Is there a formula you use?

 

[IGNORE2]

I was curious about it before the season and, for now, the Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Langborg/Buie is my favorite lineup. Martinelli brings in match up problems Berry does not. And Berry ain't finding his shot right now.

Yup - Berry / Lang should share the two spot.

 

[ballerog711]

I was curious about it before the season and, for now, the Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Langborg/Buie is my favorite lineup. Martinelli brings in match up problems Berry does not. And Berry ain't finding his shot right now.

Definitely the lineup to close out Big10 games. Hopefully they are just waiting for Martinelli's foot to completely heal

Sub Clayton for MN, when closing out mid major or teams that play four guards.

Also need to monitor the minutes. boosters capable of handling 40 minutes with media timeouts. Would like to see Lanborg around 32 mins and Brooks around 35. Should start using Mullins as well.

 

[FeralFelidae]

And Berry ain't finding his shot right now.

He found it at key times against Dayton.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

PWB - Thanks for the numbers. I know you've explained it before, but can you please explain your methodology for your "Player Adjustment?" I understand missed threes and turnovers (as mentioned above) play into it, but how do you arrive at a number? Is there a formula you use?

I wanted a 2nd number that showed much a guy had contributed or detracted from the team effort reflected in his raw +/-. I'm using box score stats only (because I can get them).

So for each game segment (defined as "we have the same 5 on the court") I go line by line thru the written play by play and assign each player these points during that segment.

Made 2 point basket	+1
Made 3 point basket	+2
Missed shot	-0.8
Turnover	-1
Steal	+1
Assist	+0.5
Blocked Shot	+0.75
Offensive Rebound	+0.8
Defensive Rebound	+0.4
Offensive Rebound of Free Throw	+0.8
Defensive Rebound of Free Throw	+0.2
Free Throw Made	+0.5
Free Throw Missed	-0.5

The underlying premise is that the team with the ball averages 1 point per possession. If you make a 3 pointer, you outperformed expectations by 2 points. If you miss a shot, your team may still get the rebound, so thats a -0.8. If you get an offensive rebound and miss the putback, thats a zero (+0.8 for the rebound, -0.8 for missing).

A steal prevents the opponent from getting their expected 1 point per possession, so thats +1.
A blocked shot is similar, but your team is not guaranteed to get the ball, so +0.75.
Turnover offsets a steal, so -1 for turnovers.

Assists are tricky because scorers can be very generous, so I settled on +0.5.
Free Throws are also tricky. If a guy gets fouled and makes 2 free throws, thats +1.
If he makes 1 of 2, he gets zero credit because 1 point per possession is the standard.

So for each segment, each player has a number reflecting how much they did, if anything. Lets say Buie makes two 3 pointers, our opponent scores 2 baskets and the score for the segment is 6 - 4. Everybody on the court for NU in that segment has a Raw +2. For each player, the Player Adjustment is the adjustment points he earned minus 25% of what his teammates earned. So Buie's Player Adjustment for that segment is +4 and the other 4 guys get a -1.

Hopefully that helps. I like the method - may need a little tweaking - but its solid.

 

[SmellyCat]

Hopefully that helps. I like the method - may need a little tweaking - but its solid.

Thanks - it is solid, and it's probably fun for you to do. You're not trying to publish this or make it official, so might as well make the numbers what you think they should be! I'm sure someone could do a serious analysis of numbers and correlation between X stat and wins, but these numbers make sense.

 

[GatoLouco]

He found it at key times against Dayton.

He did. And believe me my brain struggles to go the route of Berry to the bench. Because I know how high energy he is. He's underrated as the guy who creates a fire on the court with his excessive enthusiasm. And he's a very good rebounder. In a scenario where we are frankly having way too many brain farts on defense that is even more relevant.

But ultimately there's no lack of minutes for him regardless of lineup. He will always be in the 1/2/3/4 rotation. That's a 30+ minutes of playing time. Of course there's also Clayton and Mullins to consider for it. But there's no lack of opportunity to show the hot hand and be left out there.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

He did. And believe me my brain struggles to go the route of Berry to the bench. Because I know how high energy he is. He's underrated as the guy who creates a fire on the court with his excessive enthusiasm. And he's a very good rebounder. In a scenario where we are frankly having way too many brain farts on defense that is even more relevant.

But ultimately there's no lack of minutes for him regardless of lineup. He will always be in the 1/2/3/4 rotation. That's a 30+ minutes of playing time. Of course there's also Clayton and Mullins to consider for it. But there's no lack of opportunity to show the hot hand and be left out there.

I think it is possible that Berry will see a diminished role this year... He only played 15 minutes against Western Michigan and Clayton played 22. Collins, in a terse postgame press conference, was very complimentary of Clayton's defense and physicality. The only other positive comments I recall from Collins were for Buie and Barnhizer.

Somebody in another thread mentioned that Langborg's parents were at the WMU game - thats a different sort of pressure for some guys...

Collins also said something like "Hopefully we can get Matt back to where he was last year" and that set off a whole bunch of alarms for me....

 

[FeralFelidae]

I think it is possible that Berry will see a diminished role this year... He only played 15 minutes against Western Michigan and Clayton played 22. Collins, in a terse postgame press conference, was very complimentary of Clayton's defense and physicality. The only other positive comments I recall from Collins were for Buie and Barnhizer.

Somebody in another thread mentioned that Langborg's parents were at the WMU game - thats a different sort of pressure for some guys...

Collins also said something like "Hopefully we can get Matt back to where he was last year" and that set off a whole bunch of alarms for me....

Matt has not looked himself quite yet. I wonder what he's struggling with.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Matt has not looked himself quite yet. I wonder what he's struggling with.

Might be 7 layer syndrome

 

[SmellyCat]

So after three games, it seems that here's where we are:

Worse than last year
Audige gone - Team D still good, but prone to sloppiness and open threes
Berry is struggling on both offense and defense
Nicholson seems a little slow

Neutral
Boo getting it done

Better than last year
Barnhizer going to a new level
Langborg adds weapon NU didn't really have last year
Clayton is a capable backup at either G spot
Preston energy off the bench (he's about where Tydus was by the end of the year)
Depth improved?

 

[GatoLouco]

Another way of seeing it year vs year

After 3 games last year
-2 blowouts against mid major teams in Northern IL and Chicago State
-1 close(ish) game against a P6 opponent, Georgetown

After 3 games this year
-2 close games against mid majors, 1 I would say as bad as last year's, one better
-1 close game against a P6 like team

Later last year we struggled against Purdue Fort Wayne, Prairie View and Brown.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

The offense should be a lot better this year. Barnhizer's progress and Langborg's inclusion as a scoring option greatly enhance the offensive capabilities of the team. Buie's consistent and dependable performance will create opportunities for Barnhizer to put up impressive numbers this season. Barnhizer's skill set makes him a complete mismatch for opponents. Considering the attention that Buie demands from opposing teams, defending against this mismatch will prove to be a difficult task for most opposing teams.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Thank Goodness Boo returned!

 

[EagerFan]

The addition of Langborg only really works when he does better the 0-6 from three tho. I like everything g else I’ve seen from him, but he def needs to be a part of that third and fourth scoring threat in conference. I’m hoping it was just a rare terrible game for him.

 

[SmellyCat]

The addition of Langborg only really works when he does better the 0-6 from three tho. I like everything g else I’ve seen from him, but he def needs to be a part of that third and fourth scoring threat in conference. I’m hoping it was just a rare terrible game for him.

True. If he has what we all hope is a "normal" game, NU wins easily. I don't even want to think about if the WMU is the norm. I think most think it was just a rare terrible game. We'll see how he bounces back this weekend. Tomorrow's minutes will be interesting knowing there's another game 24 hours later.

 

[GatoLouco]

Langborge was our biggest offensive threat against Dayton. A much better opponent than WMU.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Another way of seeing it year vs year

After 3 games last year
-2 blowouts against mid major teams in Northern IL and Chicago State
-1 close(ish) game against a P6 opponent, Georgetown

After 3 games this year
-2 close games against mid majors, 1 I would say as bad as last year's, one better
-1 close game against a P6 like team

Later last year we struggled against Purdue Fort Wayne, Prairie View and Brown.

Dayton has defeated LSU and St. John’s over the last few days. They are a superior squad compared to last years Georgetown team. Equating the wins against DU and GU seems a bit disingenuous to me.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

I think it is possible that Berry will see a diminished role this year... He only played 15 minutes against Western Michigan and Clayton played 22. Collins, in a terse postgame press conference, was very complimentary of Clayton's defense and physicality. The only other positive comments I recall from Collins were for Buie and Barnhizer.

Somebody in another thread mentioned that Langborg's parents were at the WMU game - thats a different sort of pressure for some guys...

Collins also said something like "Hopefully we can get Matt back to where he was last year" and that set off a whole bunch of alarms for me....

Weird. I thought Collins didn’t play true freshman?

 

[EagerFan]

Langborge was our biggest offensive threat against Dayton. A much better opponent than WMU.

Agreed and I am hopefully that he was maybe just too aware of his folks in the crowd or some other distraction and having a rare bad game. I really like the aspects of his game I've seen so far.

 

[ballerog711]

They haven't played since Tues. Should be rested and shots flowing.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Weird. I thought Collins didn’t play true freshman?

I think you are probably mis-remembering what I used to say, which was that Collins always played a freshman in the rotation... but the ease of transferring now makes it easier to fill holes.

Roper played as a freshman, before that Ty Berry, season before that Buie and Beran, season before that Kopp and Nance, year before that Anthony Gaines, year before that Isiah Brown, year before that Falzon and Pardon, year before that McIntosh, Law and Lindsay...

Last year was a departure in that no freshman was getting minutes until Martinelli in the 2nd half of the season, but even his playing time was limited compared to freshmen in all the seasons prior.

 

[ballerog711]

Difference is last year Collins had to make the tournament so went with the upperclassmen and added in a dash of Martenelli.

Same expectation this year, so Clayton gets a minute or too, but nothing crazy. Which is surprising given the guard depth.

 

[IGNORE2]

I think you are probably mis-remembering what I used to say, which was that Collins always played a freshman in the rotation... but the ease of transferring now makes it easier to fill holes.

Roper played as a freshman, before that Ty Berry, season before that Buie and Beran, season before that Kopp and Nance, year before that Anthony Gaines, year before that Isiah Brown, year before that Falzon and Pardon, year before that McIntosh, Law and Lindsay...

Last year was a departure in that no freshman was getting minutes until Martinelli in the 2nd half of the season, but even his playing time was limited compared to freshmen in all the seasons prior.

Some posters don’t rely on archives or facts, they prefer to simply harass and hope everyone will eventually believe some poster is a worthless POS. Sadly, the folks using that schtick are the longer term guys with pictures of Lou and barn animals so no timeouts result…

And here comes my next one…3-2-1…love ya guys and see you after the weekend…