With PSU beating IL. It makes out sweeping of PSU look better. In the other game IA takes down MSU in at MSU. On the one hand, it makes MSU look more beatable there. On the other it means the IA game will be tougher as they are rounding into form. Then Nebraska winning on the road
BIG getting crazier
- Thread starter hdhntr1
- Start date
Bracket Matrix tracks most accurate bracketologists, Lunardi barely sniffs the top 100.
It may be true, but he's the one that gets the most traffic, which is worth something. Fortunately he's not on the committee.
Bracketmatrix has us in 104 of 106 brackets, and 97 of them have us as a 10 or higher, though I guess theoretically a 10 seed could be one of the last 4 byes.
Wait, “last 4 byes”.
Shouldn’t that mean one of the last 4 out?
So, clearly this means NU would be one of the top 4 seeds if they are one of the last 4 out!
No it means we are in and we don’t have to play in. Basically one of the last 8 in
It's not interpretation. In the case of the ESPN bracket, it means what he said. Last 4 in are 65-68 admitted. Last 4 byes are 61-64. It's very relevant as you are much more on the fence come selection Sunday in one than the other.
I think we have to assume at this point that BWM is kidding with his "interpretation."
Wouldn't the last four byes be 57-60? 61-64 have to play 65-68 in Dayton (if it's still in Dayton).
Yes, you are right. Still, for our purposes, it's better to be in the last 4 byes than in the last 4 in.
Technically the last four byes are 39-42. The last four in are 43-46, while the other four in the first four are 65-68.
It's weird to me that we have only one bad loss (admittedly a REALLY bad one), a win over his top overall seed, a win against one of his four seeds, a win against one of his five seeds, a 4-6 Quad 1 record, a 5-1 Quad 2 record (respectable 9-7 against Quad 1/2), an OT loss to his top overall seed at their place (no other team has really come close to beating them there)...and that lands us on the bubble.
Meanwhile, Michigan State, a team with a worse conference record than us, has a 3-8 Quad 1 record, a 6-2 Quad 2 record, (9-10 versus Quad 1/Quad 2), and lost to us by 14 points...is a 7 seed. To their credit, as they always do, they played an absolute juggernaut of a non-conference schedule, but they lost nearly all of those. Credit to them for having a tough schedule, but what's the value in that if you lose most of them?
I'm not making any argument that we should be a 5 or 6 seed, but we have a pretty nice resume and minus the one really bad loss and one blowout loss (Illinois), we have either won every other game or been right in it at the end. Just kind of odd.
Right, that's in terms of seeding. But in terms of priority in getting in, they are 61-68, right? Like the last 8 teams awarded a place. The #68 seed might be Wright State, but they were in automatically before any of the last byes or last 4.
It wasn't a huge drop in reality. I think we went from the lowest 9 seed to the highest 10 seed. In his Bracket Math, he does have us with an 85% or better chance at being in the field.
The fact that it has us as a 9 or 10 with our record is a joke. All NET rankings and brand-driven. Do you think if we had Michigan State’s schedule/record, we’d be anywhere near a 7???
Beat MSU in East Lansing to make it a moot point.
NU does always seem to match up well with MSU. It's certainly far from impossible.
Start with MD and then we would have three BIG road wins and be harder to ignore
Let's get in the tournament first before we worry about seeding. All four games coming up will not be easy. Right now Iowa is giving Illinois all they can handle at Illinois and we know how we did it there. Michigan State and Maryland won't be easy Road games and Minnesota just seems to be getting better.
MD comes up first. A win there gives us a guaranteed winning BIG record with two home games remaining and puts us in a lot better shape than a loss requiring us to hold serve. As you say, all games tough and we are getting both IA and MN after they have rounded into shape and are tougher than they were earlier in the year as evidenced by IA beating MSU at MSU earlier this week
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My hope / belief is that they use the NET approach merely to figure out a ranking, then use that ranking to figure out the Quad 1-4 wins and losses. A team that is 2-7 against Quad 1 is likely not very good, even if they stomped some weaker teams (and got a great NET in doing so).
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Maryland is a big big game for many reasons, imo most of all because it will be the most rested this team has been in a long time. Need to capitalize on the bye weekend.
Nice twist, bringing the discussion back to the subject of "byes."
Also, the coaches will have had the most time focusing on Mullins, Smith, and the other bench guys who need to step up with Berry out. They have more game film and experience and the staff can work on correcting what went wrong.
They’ve both already shown progress. But the spotlight’s about to get much brighter if the whole team executes. Go Cats!
Well my Alaska friend, both of us know that there is no "bye" involved, and that we are simply idle. Wins, however would potentially get us real byes in the BTT.
The team we played last year, Boise State, was 29 in NET prior to the tournament and we were 41. We were a 7 seed, Boise was a 10. Rutgers was 40 in NET last year and didn’t make the tournament. NET is important but it’s just one of many things considered. Strength of record doesn’t get talked about enough but it’s important for the committee too and we rank quite favorably there (currently 26th). We did last year, too, which is why we were seeded above our predictive metrics.
MSU loses to Ohio State at home. If I were on the committee, I’d pick Iowa and leave MSU out of the NCAA tournament.
Exactly. They also take a look at things like BPI, KenPom, and KPI (and we have better rankings in all of those than we do in NET).
