Big Ten Tournament Seeding

[ColumbusCatFan1]

With only 4 games left in the regular season, the post seemed somewhat apprioriate. Currently the conference looks like this:


1) Wisconsin (13-1) - Mary, MSU, Minny, OSU
2) Maryland (10-4) - Wisc, Mich, Rutg, Neb
3) Michigan State (10-4) - Minny, Wisc, Pur, Ind
4) Purdue (10-4) - Rutg, OSU, MSU, Illini
5) Indiana (9-6) - NU, Iowa, MSU
6) Ohio State (8-6) - Neb, Pur, PSU, Wisc
7) Iowa (8-6) - Illin, PSU, Ind, NU
8) Illinois (7-7) - Iowa, NU, Neb, Pur
9) Michigan (7-8) - Mary, NU, Rutg
10) Minnesota (5-10) - MSU, Wisc, PSU
11) Nebraska (5-10) - OSU, Illini, Mary
12) Northwestern (4-10) - Ind, Illini, Mich, Iowa
13) Penn State (3-12) - Iowa, OSU, Minny
14) Rutgers (2-13) - Pur, Mary, Mich


To my eyes, it looks as though NU will finish no worse than 12th, which would put them in a very winnable Wednesday match up with Penn State. Minnesota will likely finish at 6-12. If the 'Cats can split their remaining schedule, 11th is a real possibility. In this scenario, if Nebraska were to lose out as well, 10th place and a first round bye would be the prize.

10th seems to be the ceiling, unless Collins and Co. run the table and Mich/Illinois/Iowa collapse down the stretch.






This post was edited on 2/23 4:17 PM by ColumbusCatFan1

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

11th seems to be a good landing spot. The 'Cats would be favored in round 1 and have potential winnable 2nd and even 3rd round match ups. In such a scenario, hopefully Michigan State finishes 2nd. I would want to avoid Wisconsin & Sparty like the plague come tournament time.



This post was edited on 2/23 4:33 PM by ColumbusCatFan1

 

[Seattle_Cat]

With the remaining schedules for each team I could see us finishing 10th. Would that necessarily be better than 11? If we had a first game against a weak team then our end of season win/loss record might be better than if we skip the first round.

 

[NJCat83588]

I think playing a game against a comparable team is an advantage. Therefore, finishing 11th or 12th might be better in the long run than 10th because NU would get one more game. Face it, NU isn't going to win the Big 10 this season or probably even get to Saturday no matter where they are seeded................

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

That's what I was thinking too, Seattle.

For anyone holding out for the far distant possibility of the NIT - say the Cats' to go 3-1 and Nebraska 2-1 to conclude conference play. NU would land the 11 seed and improve their regular season mark to 16-15 (7-11). If this happens, I think NU would need at least 3 (and winning 9 out of their last 11) in Chicago to get into the discussion (19-16). Collins likes to go 10 deep and had success against mid-tier opponent last year on Thursday. If we were fortunate enough to avoid Michigan State on Friday...

Unlikely, heck yeah, but fun to ponder.





This post was edited on 2/23 6:12 PM by ColumbusCatFan1

 

[hdhntr1]

If they go 3-1 in last four and at least 1-1 in BTT, I would think they would be a compelling story for the NIT. That would make them 6-1 in last 7 and 8 wins overall in the BIG with a record over 0.500 THat would be a very big finish that I would think would be viewed pretty favorably. Especially if the BIG gets 8 into the NCAA as some think. I would think that the NIT would wast to take at least 2-3

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

"Especially if the BIG gets 8 into the NCAA as some think. I would think that the NIT would wast to take at least 2-3."

I don't think that will be factored by the comittee. The NIT does value tickets sales. The strongest evidence being their inclusion of a 16-16 UNC squad (that was seeded better than a 20-13 NU club) in 2010.

I do believe, as you suggested, a red hot finish to the season would carry some weight. However, as I mentioned a week or so ago (since the 2008 contraction) the NIT has always included at least one team from a major conference with that finishes 3 games over .500. Without marquee wins and strong basketball following, I can't see NU getting in with a record worse than 19-16 (or 18-15). Even then, the Cat's probably need the mid majors conference champions to take care of business in their respective tournaments.

 

[Styre]

The NIT doesn't value ticket sales when it comes to selecting the field; they are, however, allowed to move teams up and down the seeding line to create games of "regional interest."

That UNC team's computer rankings were largely better than ours despite their worse record in any case.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Really? I thought the 'regional interest" thing played into selection. Thanks for the correction.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt with the computer rankings (I've spent a bit too much time on here today) but it doesn't quite make sense that a 20 game winner from a power conference would be rated lower than a .500 squad (even with UNC's traditionally brutal non-conference scheduling). My recollection was the BIG and Big East were much stronger than the ACC in 2010.




This post was edited on 2/23 8:00 PM by ColumbusCatFan1