How we make the double bye

[CappyNU]

We beat MSU and Minnesota - We're in 100%
We beat one of MSU and Minnesota - We make it unless Wisconsin beats both Rutgers and Purdue, and Nebraska beats Michigan
We lose to both MSU and Minnesota - We only make it if Indiana beats Minnesota, Rutgers and Purdue beat Wisconsin, and Illinois beats Iowa

Given the likelihood of these events, we need to win one and have Purdue beat the Badgers. The best way to have Purdue be motivated to beat the Badgers is for Illinois to beat Purdue during the week, as that will mean Purdue won't have the 1-seed locked up.

 

[MC_Cat]

Assuming Nebraska beats Michigan, the only way we're the #3 is to win both games. I guess we could be #2 if Illini lose their next 2.

 

[CappyNU]

Comes down to this:

We are the only game on Saturday. Currently we are the 5th seed if the season ended today. If we lose, we will still be in 5th, and could end up the 6th seed depending on Sunday, facing one of OSU, PSU, MD, RU or Michigan who will have played the day before. If we win, we will be in 3rd place entering Sunday. Kenpom gives us a 70% chance of winning.

Nebraska-Michigan tips off at 11am and Wisconsin-Purdue tips at 11:30am. If Michigan and Purdue win (25.7% chance) and we won Saturday, we clinch the double bye in 3rd place. If Michigan and Wisconsin win (5.3% chance) or Nebraska and Purdue win (57.3% chance) and we won Saturday, we clinch the double bye in 4th place. If Nebraska and Wisconsin win (11.7% chance) and we won Saturday, we will finish in 5th place and face off against whoever comes out of the matchup between the loser of Sunday's PSU/MD game vs. RU. So with a victory over the Gophers, our fate will be known by 2pm Sunday.

If we lose Saturday night, we will have to wait until 8pm to find out our seed. We get the 5th seed if Iowa loses to Illinois, as we hold the tiebreaker over MSU by virtue of our win over Purdue. Otherwise, we get the 6th seed and will face off against the winner of OSU/PSU/MD vs Michigan.

Should the unthinkable happen and we end up 6th, the remaining 3 games come into play for the purposes of figuring out our opponent.

OSU plays at Rutgers at 1pm. If OSU loses, they will be in 11th. If OSU wins, PSU will be in 11th for the moment.
MSU plays at Indiana at 3:30pm. The result of this game won't have an impact unless OSU beats RU and PSU beats MD.
MD plays at PSU at 6:30pm. If MD wins, MD will be the 11th seed and face Michigan. If PSU wins, then things get spicy. A combo of PSU/OSU/MSU puts OSU 11th. A combo of PSU/OSU/IU puts PSU 11th. A RU/PSU combo also puts OSU 11th.

All this is to say that we have an 18.0% chance of finishing 3rd, a 43.8% chance of finishing 4th, a 26.2% chance of finishing 5th, and a 12.0% chance of finishing 6th.

 

[rogerkim]

Here's a nice website that can be used to determine all the various tiebreaking scenarios:
mred's 2024 Big 10 MBB Tournament Tiebreaker

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Just win baby

 

[SmellyCat]

A little bit more, using Torvik's predictions, a similar exercise to what Cappy already posted. My calculations for each seed:

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5​

6​

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9​

10​

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11​

12​

13​

14​

Purdue​

100%​

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Illinois​

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100%​

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Nebraska​

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59%​

16%​

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14%​

11%​

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Northwestern​

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21%​

49%​

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19%​

11%​

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Wisconsin​

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15%​

24%​

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53%​

8%​

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Michigan St.​

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34%​

29%​

37%​

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Iowa​

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5%​

11%​

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13%​

16%​

54%​

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Indiana​

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20%​

17%​

35%​

7%​

21%​

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Minnesota​

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14%​

55%​

31%​

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Ohio St.​

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17%​

38%​

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45%​

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Maryland​

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45%​

28%​

28%​

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Penn St.​

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13%​

21%​

10%​

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10%​

45%​

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Rutgers​

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28%​

73%​

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Michigan​

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100%​

Unless I did this wrong, NU can't drop below 6, which means they'll either get a double bye (70% chance) or will play against a team that played a day earlier (30%).

If NU wins, they'll have a 28% chance at third seed, 63% chance at fourth seed, and a 9% chance of the five. So Torvik is a little more bullish for NU than Ken Pom, so I like him more. Just win tomorrow and everything will start to come together!