I just don't see how Purdue is going to morph into this offensive juggernaut from last year to this year. Our defense handled them fine last year, and I don't think we take much if any of a step back this year. Our D will be top 20 again. While we lost our two starters at safety, McGee has a ton of experience and was our regular nickel, and JR Pace or Travis Whillock or someone should be able to step in and do fine. And so, you are basically looking at replacing one position on our defense where there is relative inexperience. Two if you count the third linebacker (offset by perhaps the best LB duo in the B1G) and I don't count the DT position because we rotated significantly last year as well again this year.
Meanwhile half of Purdue's defense will be new. It wasn't that good last year, and it is likely to be worse this year. Frankly, I look at it and it seems to be a shambles. A fricking sieve. Thorson is likely to be back day one, our OL is largely intact, our WRs are largely back along with Jalen Brown (who I think will be our #1 this year). We've seen what Thorson can do against poor defences and so I will be surprised if we don't put up 30+ on this team. Does anyone here not drinking Black and Gold Kool-Aid really think Purdue is going to put up 30 on us? Even 20? We lose JJTBC of course, but as anyone has pointed out our RB room is super deep, and Jeremy Larkin is likely more explosive than Jackson anyways. He was already in limited touches last year. I don't see how they will stop us.
It seems much of Purdue's hype is based on incoming talent and youth. Which may blossom as the season progresses, but isn't likely to have it together by the first game of the season. I don't see this world class elite talent anyways. Everyone seems to think they are going to roll up points on NU (see Kentucky last year) and it just never happens.
Fitz is 10-2 in openers and it's not like we're starting out against a ranked team, so I really don't understand the Vegas spread (which is contrary to ESPN's statistical predictor) unless it's premised on Thorson not being available (which doesn't seem to be the case) and on what basis they are seeing this for Purdue, but hey, we have an immaculate record ATS. If people want to make money, this is the game to go heavy on the Cats.