Despite being late due to my damaged laptop, I'm going to post these numbers tonight anyway. Hopefully we won't have much to talk about after tomorrow's SIU game.
PLEASE refer to the thread on offense referring to how these grades are working compared to week 1 (I’m not paying for the premium weekly subscription), how the grading system works, and what they’ll look like for the rest of the year (I’m not posting every week).
Defense Overall: When I first watched the game, caught up in the emotion of things, I thought our defense really did calm down some after the first quarter and play much better. Upon rewatch… I fully agree with GCG2002 that the defense got it’s ass kicked the entire game. I have very, very little positive to say about anybody in the front 6 in any phase, and almost nothing positive to say vs the run for the entire team except for kudos for a couple guys. Coverage was spotty all game whenever Duke bothered to actually test it, although we at least got some plays here. The only things that really improved for NU as the game went on was the DBs started to be really aggressive coming up to make tackles on Duke’s horizontal passing game (and tackled well) and Duke made a few key mistakes that stopped drives. Also, NU had no business having time to score late with Duke’s clock management.
PFF agrees with this brutal assessment.
D Line: PFF gave mostly subpar grades with only a couple bright spots. After my rewatch… I can’t possibly imagine an argument against that. NU has major issues with interior size and lacks a full rotation of fresh guys.
Adebawore: 76.9 overall, even from 75.9. 76.7 rush defense, up from 72.8. 77.7 pass rush, up from 76.5..I’m starting with Adetomiwa and listing out his full name just so we can celebrate one of the first true positives. Given that his grade went up in both phases, it seems like he pushed into the elite scores in the 80’s across all phases and his overall score is only being suppressed by his 15 yard penalty. He really did play just a phenomenal game all day. Among his superlative play, he was really almost single handed responsible for the late goal line stand, standing up the ball carrier at the goal line on second down and being the primary tackler in the pile on third down. He fought his face off. PFF gave strong props for his great game.
Holmes: 61.6 overall, down a little from 63.7. 62.7 vs run, down from 68.7. 63 pass rush, even from 62. Holmes isn’t great, but to my eyes he’s at least the one guy in the middle who’s able to generally hold his ground vs the run. However, he usually isn’t really athletic enough to get off his block and make the play, as evidenced by his missed tackle on the goal line when he was right in position. We’re getting a useable performance from him as a lower school transfer, but it’s a big problem that the coaches, my eyes, and PFF are all in agreement that he’s the top DT in the rotation (he’s second in snaps to only Tomi).
McLaughlin: 56.2 overall, down from 59.4. 53.2 vs run, even from 53.6. 58.8 pass rush, down from 63.1. PFF graded McLaughlin pretty badly everywhere, and my eyes didn’t disagree a bit.
O’Rourke: 65.4 overall, up from 57.9. 55 vs run, down from 57.8. 78.1 pass rush, up from 58. O’Rourke gets a run-heavy mix of snaps (only 12 of his 36 snaps were vs the pass this week), so I assume he’s getting a big boost from his couple of get pressures/swats vs the pass. In general though, he’s been graded poorly vs the run.
Hubbard: 49.8 overall, down from 78.2. 43.4 vs run, down from 69.8. 68.3 pass rush, down from 74.4. Hubbard is the guy NU tries to scheme is purely pass rush situations, and these PFF grades seem to align with that coaching decision: he’s been useful rushing the passer, but really bad vs the run. Unlike the Nebraska game where he was mostly on the field for passing plays, the coaches failed to mix him up as well (in a small overall number of snaps) and had a closer to even ratio in run defense vs pass defense. This… wasn’t a good result.
Johnson and Story: I’m not going to list all their grades with so few snaps, but both are consistently getting grades across the board in the high 60’s in both weeks. Likely their situation use is helping them, but PFF likes them both and to my eyes they made a couple of the only notable D line plays vs Duke by anybody without the initials AA, so I’m very willing to see more of these guys. Bastone gets only token snaps and hasn’t graded well.
Linebacker: Basically no Metz this week, and the remaining two guys had an awful time. Abused by the option all day. Gallagher used bad tech and missed tackles all day and Mueller was frequently out to lunch miles out of position.
Gallagher: 52.8 overall, down from 60.3 overall. 54.2 vs run, down from 82.9. 54.7 in coverage, up from 43.9. To both my eye and PFF vs Nebraska, Gallagher was mostly quite good (PFF would say elite) vs the run but was totally lost in coverage. He improved some in coverage (still not very good) not having to deal with Vokalek vs Duke… but was mostly a ghost vs the run. IF you watch him, you’ll see bad fits and poor tackling all day. Even when he did get his correct shoulder into the blockers, he usually stayed blocked. Better D linemen who draw doubles in front of him keeping him clean would certainly help, but that wouldn’t help with the missed tackles. The best I can say about Gallagher is it seemed like he typically read the play roughly fine, but attacked with poor technique and tackling.
Mueller: 55 overall, down from 64.6. 41.9 vs run, down from 62.3. 65 in coverage, even from 66.1. Let’s say something nice: Mueller is playable competent in coverage for a young LB, and that’s been the case both weeks. The bas news: he had a horrible game vs the run. I agree fully with PFF’s rush defense grade here. He misread Duke’s option attack all day long and consistently overpursues when following behind a play. The number of times in my rewatch where I wondered where the heck Mueller thought he was going was… very high. I can think of a large handful of plays where he ends up standing shoulder to shoulder with Gallagher as the ball carrier cuts back into the hole he’s vacated. He flies quickly to where he’s decided to go… he's just clearly got major issues with his eyes and recognition. With Wisconsin moving toward a cutback heavy zone scheme last week and Minnesota and others running so much RPO, I have massive concerns about him going forward, and it isn’t fixable purely by better play up front like Gallagher may be. Does Davis not have the speed to contribute on the boundary side here?
Safeties/Nickels: This team needed Coco back extremely badly, but this was probably the best graded group on the team, which I think is about right.
Joseph: 54.2 overall, 55.1 vs run, 58.6 in coverage. Almost all his snaps this season came vs Duke, so while his numbers are slightly depressed by 7 poorly graded snaps vs Nebby, these are pretty close. His overall score is depressed by a couple harmful penalties. I kind of thought he was more passable but not great in the run and often fairly lost in coverage, but both scores are similarly mediocre to poor, so it’s a marginal quibble. At least it looked like he’s willing to try to make a physical tackle, even if they almost all came 10+ yards downfield.
Lewis: 53.3 overall, up from 38.4. 61.2 vs run, down from 69.5. 53.4 in coverage, up from 33.5. PFF thought Lewis had a horrible game in coverage vs Nebraska and also punished his overall score big time for a rough penalty. It’s a little tough to tell how they graded the Duke game with all the movement, but it seems like Lewis actually got pretty good scores overall and in coverage, maybe very good scores, but declined in the run like everybody else did. I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say Lewis was “very good” in coverage, but he was definitely one of the guys who was coming aggressively to the football in the horizontal passing game and made some nice coverage plays to my eyes. A good bounce back performance from Lewis.
Heard: 51.1 overall, up from 43.1. 64.0 vs run, up from 57.1. 45.4 in coverage, up from 39.8. PFF didn’t think Heard was good, but they thought he was a lot better than he was Nebraska, and I’d have to agree, if only because he made a couple key, hard tackles in wide open gaps in the box in the red zone. For our light star nickel hybrid CB, that’s a critical attribute, so at least we got a little something from heard there.
Cornerbacks: It’s disappointing this group isn’t better, even if they aren’t really the problem with the team.
Mitchell: 61.7 overall, up from 60.3. 64.5 in coverage, even from 65.1. We’ve all discussed Mitchell’s conspicuous mistake vs Duke, which is weighing down an okay but not very good performance. He is also grading terribly vs the run this year, such as it matters. I’m very disappointed in Mitchell’s play so far given I was very excited to see if he could become a real draft riser but instead he's been mistake prone and inconsistent.
Hollis: 62.3 overall, down from 67.8. 70.5 vs run, up from 65.7. 59.7 in coverage, down from 66.9. We all watched Duke successfully pick on Hollis basically all day, which was disappointing given his promising play vs Nebraska. At least he caught that gift INT. The ingenious “let your guy be so open in the end zone he doinks it right off his hands and helmet” play claims another victim.
Theran Johnson is getting low to mid 60’s scores consistently in a small number of snaps (all in relief of either Mitchell or Hollis, none in the dime), so that’s nice.
PLEASE refer to the thread on offense referring to how these grades are working compared to week 1 (I’m not paying for the premium weekly subscription), how the grading system works, and what they’ll look like for the rest of the year (I’m not posting every week).
Defense Overall: When I first watched the game, caught up in the emotion of things, I thought our defense really did calm down some after the first quarter and play much better. Upon rewatch… I fully agree with GCG2002 that the defense got it’s ass kicked the entire game. I have very, very little positive to say about anybody in the front 6 in any phase, and almost nothing positive to say vs the run for the entire team except for kudos for a couple guys. Coverage was spotty all game whenever Duke bothered to actually test it, although we at least got some plays here. The only things that really improved for NU as the game went on was the DBs started to be really aggressive coming up to make tackles on Duke’s horizontal passing game (and tackled well) and Duke made a few key mistakes that stopped drives. Also, NU had no business having time to score late with Duke’s clock management.
PFF agrees with this brutal assessment.
D Line: PFF gave mostly subpar grades with only a couple bright spots. After my rewatch… I can’t possibly imagine an argument against that. NU has major issues with interior size and lacks a full rotation of fresh guys.
Adebawore: 76.9 overall, even from 75.9. 76.7 rush defense, up from 72.8. 77.7 pass rush, up from 76.5..I’m starting with Adetomiwa and listing out his full name just so we can celebrate one of the first true positives. Given that his grade went up in both phases, it seems like he pushed into the elite scores in the 80’s across all phases and his overall score is only being suppressed by his 15 yard penalty. He really did play just a phenomenal game all day. Among his superlative play, he was really almost single handed responsible for the late goal line stand, standing up the ball carrier at the goal line on second down and being the primary tackler in the pile on third down. He fought his face off. PFF gave strong props for his great game.
Holmes: 61.6 overall, down a little from 63.7. 62.7 vs run, down from 68.7. 63 pass rush, even from 62. Holmes isn’t great, but to my eyes he’s at least the one guy in the middle who’s able to generally hold his ground vs the run. However, he usually isn’t really athletic enough to get off his block and make the play, as evidenced by his missed tackle on the goal line when he was right in position. We’re getting a useable performance from him as a lower school transfer, but it’s a big problem that the coaches, my eyes, and PFF are all in agreement that he’s the top DT in the rotation (he’s second in snaps to only Tomi).
McLaughlin: 56.2 overall, down from 59.4. 53.2 vs run, even from 53.6. 58.8 pass rush, down from 63.1. PFF graded McLaughlin pretty badly everywhere, and my eyes didn’t disagree a bit.
O’Rourke: 65.4 overall, up from 57.9. 55 vs run, down from 57.8. 78.1 pass rush, up from 58. O’Rourke gets a run-heavy mix of snaps (only 12 of his 36 snaps were vs the pass this week), so I assume he’s getting a big boost from his couple of get pressures/swats vs the pass. In general though, he’s been graded poorly vs the run.
Hubbard: 49.8 overall, down from 78.2. 43.4 vs run, down from 69.8. 68.3 pass rush, down from 74.4. Hubbard is the guy NU tries to scheme is purely pass rush situations, and these PFF grades seem to align with that coaching decision: he’s been useful rushing the passer, but really bad vs the run. Unlike the Nebraska game where he was mostly on the field for passing plays, the coaches failed to mix him up as well (in a small overall number of snaps) and had a closer to even ratio in run defense vs pass defense. This… wasn’t a good result.
Johnson and Story: I’m not going to list all their grades with so few snaps, but both are consistently getting grades across the board in the high 60’s in both weeks. Likely their situation use is helping them, but PFF likes them both and to my eyes they made a couple of the only notable D line plays vs Duke by anybody without the initials AA, so I’m very willing to see more of these guys. Bastone gets only token snaps and hasn’t graded well.
Linebacker: Basically no Metz this week, and the remaining two guys had an awful time. Abused by the option all day. Gallagher used bad tech and missed tackles all day and Mueller was frequently out to lunch miles out of position.
Gallagher: 52.8 overall, down from 60.3 overall. 54.2 vs run, down from 82.9. 54.7 in coverage, up from 43.9. To both my eye and PFF vs Nebraska, Gallagher was mostly quite good (PFF would say elite) vs the run but was totally lost in coverage. He improved some in coverage (still not very good) not having to deal with Vokalek vs Duke… but was mostly a ghost vs the run. IF you watch him, you’ll see bad fits and poor tackling all day. Even when he did get his correct shoulder into the blockers, he usually stayed blocked. Better D linemen who draw doubles in front of him keeping him clean would certainly help, but that wouldn’t help with the missed tackles. The best I can say about Gallagher is it seemed like he typically read the play roughly fine, but attacked with poor technique and tackling.
Mueller: 55 overall, down from 64.6. 41.9 vs run, down from 62.3. 65 in coverage, even from 66.1. Let’s say something nice: Mueller is playable competent in coverage for a young LB, and that’s been the case both weeks. The bas news: he had a horrible game vs the run. I agree fully with PFF’s rush defense grade here. He misread Duke’s option attack all day long and consistently overpursues when following behind a play. The number of times in my rewatch where I wondered where the heck Mueller thought he was going was… very high. I can think of a large handful of plays where he ends up standing shoulder to shoulder with Gallagher as the ball carrier cuts back into the hole he’s vacated. He flies quickly to where he’s decided to go… he's just clearly got major issues with his eyes and recognition. With Wisconsin moving toward a cutback heavy zone scheme last week and Minnesota and others running so much RPO, I have massive concerns about him going forward, and it isn’t fixable purely by better play up front like Gallagher may be. Does Davis not have the speed to contribute on the boundary side here?
Safeties/Nickels: This team needed Coco back extremely badly, but this was probably the best graded group on the team, which I think is about right.
Joseph: 54.2 overall, 55.1 vs run, 58.6 in coverage. Almost all his snaps this season came vs Duke, so while his numbers are slightly depressed by 7 poorly graded snaps vs Nebby, these are pretty close. His overall score is depressed by a couple harmful penalties. I kind of thought he was more passable but not great in the run and often fairly lost in coverage, but both scores are similarly mediocre to poor, so it’s a marginal quibble. At least it looked like he’s willing to try to make a physical tackle, even if they almost all came 10+ yards downfield.
Lewis: 53.3 overall, up from 38.4. 61.2 vs run, down from 69.5. 53.4 in coverage, up from 33.5. PFF thought Lewis had a horrible game in coverage vs Nebraska and also punished his overall score big time for a rough penalty. It’s a little tough to tell how they graded the Duke game with all the movement, but it seems like Lewis actually got pretty good scores overall and in coverage, maybe very good scores, but declined in the run like everybody else did. I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say Lewis was “very good” in coverage, but he was definitely one of the guys who was coming aggressively to the football in the horizontal passing game and made some nice coverage plays to my eyes. A good bounce back performance from Lewis.
Heard: 51.1 overall, up from 43.1. 64.0 vs run, up from 57.1. 45.4 in coverage, up from 39.8. PFF didn’t think Heard was good, but they thought he was a lot better than he was Nebraska, and I’d have to agree, if only because he made a couple key, hard tackles in wide open gaps in the box in the red zone. For our light star nickel hybrid CB, that’s a critical attribute, so at least we got a little something from heard there.
Cornerbacks: It’s disappointing this group isn’t better, even if they aren’t really the problem with the team.
Mitchell: 61.7 overall, up from 60.3. 64.5 in coverage, even from 65.1. We’ve all discussed Mitchell’s conspicuous mistake vs Duke, which is weighing down an okay but not very good performance. He is also grading terribly vs the run this year, such as it matters. I’m very disappointed in Mitchell’s play so far given I was very excited to see if he could become a real draft riser but instead he's been mistake prone and inconsistent.
Hollis: 62.3 overall, down from 67.8. 70.5 vs run, up from 65.7. 59.7 in coverage, down from 66.9. We all watched Duke successfully pick on Hollis basically all day, which was disappointing given his promising play vs Nebraska. At least he caught that gift INT. The ingenious “let your guy be so open in the end zone he doinks it right off his hands and helmet” play claims another victim.
Theran Johnson is getting low to mid 60’s scores consistently in a small number of snaps (all in relief of either Mitchell or Hollis, none in the dime), so that’s nice.
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