12.7.15 KenPom Rankings And The Cats

[Medill90]

Updated 12.7

KenPom rankings of pre conference opponents. Improvement versus week ago in left parens.

339 (-4) CSU
347 (+2) MVS
129 (+21) DePaul
253 (-24) Sacred Heart
252 (-9) Loyola

NU should expect to come out of non con at 12-1. But, the DePaul game is getting scarier.

Second, KenPom rankings of all Big Ten teams. Two-game series in right parens.

2 (+5) Purdue
8 (-2) MSU
19 (+2) Iowa
21 (-1) Maryland (2)
25 (--) Indiana
30 (+7) Wisconsin
32 (+3) Michigan
63 (+5) NU
68 (+4) OSU (2)
90 (-8) Illinois
107 (-8) 99 Nebraska (2)
105 (-22) Minnesota (2)
160 (+23) Penn St (2)
250 (-31) Rutgers

NU still has 8 games against Big Ten opponents ranked higher and 10 against opponents ranked lower. Only one of the two-game, home and away pairings is with a team -- Maryland -- ranked higher.

Of the eight against teams ranked higher I still think it's reasonable for NU to steal three wins. So, 3-5.

Of the ten games against teams ranked lower I now think opponents steal 3 wins. So, 7-3.

I think NU goes 2-1 in the Big Ten Championship. We're due. So, 12-9 versus Big Ten teams and 24-10 overall.

If I were to adjust, I'd say they win one more against higher ranked conference teams and lose one more against lower ranked conference teams. Losing one of two to OSU, Minny and PSU is completely plausible.

But this team stands squarely between the NIT and the tournament. Maybe leaning toward the tournament.

 

[Styre]

As I've said before, I don't think the soft non con matters much when a team plays 19 or more games against Big Ten opponents, half of whom spend time ranked.

Perhaps not, but if the conference is unexpectedly terrible, it becomes a much bigger factor. I get that it's amusing to watch Illinois lose games to awful teams, but if you actually think this NU team has a shot at the tournament this year, you want the Big Ten to win as many games as possible in the non-conference.

 

[JournCat]

Keep in mind Chicago State *barely* lost to Illinois in Champaign. KenPom ratings aside, I'd be very impressed if we got to the conference schedule with just the UNC loss.

 

[rwhitney014]

We really should win all of these games, especially if we get through tonight. DePaul's a road game, but not really. VT presents a nice challenge, so I'm hoping to see more of the first half against Mizzou tonight. Get through this with just the one loss and I do think we'll be ranked, with a chance to score some nice conference wins early. Get some positive momentum going.

 

[T_Levine]

how can wisconsin be so high? they look awful

 

[mikewebb68]

Keep in mind Chicago State *barely* lost to Illinois in Champaign. KenPom ratings aside, I'd be very impressed if we got to the conference schedule with just the UNC loss.

Illinois is absolutely decimated by injury at this point and a fairly horrific team tho.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Then again, the B1G once again thumped the ACC. Hard to say the conference is down when you better the ACC.

 

[spartcat]

As of 5 seconds ago, we're up to 63 in these ratings. Maybe if I wait 10 more seconds....

 

[spartcat]

Another potential positive: as of now there is only one mid-major team in the top 40 (Valpo). Maybe it will be a good year for power conference at large teams.

 

[jjjjjjj]

Perhaps not, but if the conference is unexpectedly terrible, it becomes a much bigger factor. I get that it's amusing to watch Illinois lose games to awful teams, but if you actually think this NU team has a shot at the tournament this year, you want the Big Ten to win as many games as possible in the non-conference.

It used to be so so entertaining to watch Illinois faceplants. If you wanted the BEST in unintentional humor, you needed only to visit their boards after various recruiting failures, especially after Cliff Alexander spurned the Illini during multiple Illinois watch parties.

But now I rarely make it over there, even after an embarrassing Illinois loss, because they're just resigned to their collective fate. And while Groce is no coach-of-the-year candidate, he's not ridiculous like Weber was.

 

[Medill90]

Updated

 

[NJCat83588]

Updated 12.7

KenPom rankings of pre conference opponents. Improvement versus week ago in left parens.

339 (-4) CSU
347 (+2) MVS
129 (+21) DePaul
253 (-24) Sacred Heart
252 (-9) Loyola

NU should expect to come out of non con at 12-1. But, the DePaul game is getting scarier.

Second, KenPom rankings of all Big Ten teams. Two-game series in right parens.

2 (+5) Purdue
8 (-2) MSU
19 (+2) Iowa
21 (-1) Maryland (2)
25 (--) Indiana
30 (+7) Wisconsin
32 (+3) Michigan
63 (+5) NU
68 (+4) OSU (2)
90 (-8) Illinois
107 (-8) 99 Nebraska (2)
105 (-22) Minnesota (2)
160 (+23) Penn St (2)
250 (-31) Rutgers

NU still has 8 games against Big Ten opponents ranked higher and 10 against opponents ranked lower. Only one of the two-game, home and away pairings is with a team -- Maryland -- ranked higher.

Of the eight against teams ranked higher I still think it's reasonable for NU to steal three wins. So, 3-5.

Of the ten games against teams ranked lower I now think opponents steal 3 wins. So, 7-3.

I think NU goes 2-1 in the Big Ten Championship. We're due. So, 12-9 versus Big Ten teams and 24-10 overall.

If I were to adjust, I'd say they win one more against higher ranked conference teams and lose one more against lower ranked conference teams. Losing one of two to OSU, Minny and PSU is completely plausible.

But this team stands squarely between the NIT and the tournament. Maybe leaning toward the tournament.

If NU has 24 wins they are in the NCAA. I think this is on the optimistic side but IF they go 12-1 OOC at least they have a shot as long as they win at least 9 regular season Big 10 games.

 

[pawildcat]

It used to be so so entertaining to watch Illinois faceplants. If you wanted the BEST in unintentional humor, you needed only to visit their boards after various recruiting failures, especially after Cliff Alexander spurned the Illini during multiple Illinois watch parties.

But now I rarely make it over there, even after an embarrassing Illinois loss, because they're just resigned to their collective fate. And while Groce is no coach-of-the-year candidate, he's not ridiculous like Weber was.

Weber is actually a decent game coach, but seems to have little recruiting skill, and recruiting is probably at least 70 percent of the Division I basketball game. Illinois should be a consistent elite program considering the amount of BB talent in the state, but they've continued to fail in the recruiting game and underachieve over the years.

 

[NJCat83588]

Weber is actually a decent game coach, but seems to have little recruiting skill, and recruiting is probably at least 70 percent of the Division I basketball game. Illinois should be a consistent elite program considering the amount of BB talent in the state, but they've continued to fail in the recruiting game and underachieve over the years.

You realize Weber isn't the coach at illinois now?

 

[hdhntr1]

how can wisconsin be so high? they look awful

They beat Syracuse at Syracuse. That will give you some points

 

[mikewebb68]

They beat Syracuse at Syracuse. That will give you some points

Until people catch up with the fact that Syracuse is not all that good, either.