2016-17 Season Predictions

[NJCat]

I can't wait for the season to start tomorrow. I think this is going to be an enjoyable team to watch. Time to make our preseason predictions. I'd ask xyzbob to revisit them at the end of the year using his expertise with the all-powerful search capability of the new Rivals site.

I think the Cats go 18-13 in the regular season, with OOC losses @Butler and to TX and CO in BKY. BMac will be the leading scorer and be second team All Big 10. Inexperience at the 5 will hurt, and Collins is still short 4 of his own scholarship players. No post season but I think the Cats are better this year than the 2015-16 edition.

Your thoughts?

 

[FeralFelidae]

I think the Cats go 18-13 in the regular season, with OOC losses @Butler and to TX and CO in BKY.

Does that mean you think the 'Cats will beat Dayton? I'd be thrilled if the 'Cats vanquish Dayton.

I think they take down an overrated Texas.

The 'Cats get two games each against Buttgers and Nebraska, and I think they'll sweep them both. So I agree with you that these 'Cats will be better than the 2015-2016 edition but I don't see them dropping to 18 wins. They'll still win 20 and make the NIT. Maybe even better, if the stars align! And the Cubs won, so why not?

 

[NJCat]

Does that mean you think the 'Cats will beat Dayton? I'd be thrilled if the 'Cats vanquish Dayton.

Yes, I think NU beats UD. They will have gelled by then and playing on a neutral court will be in their favor.

 

[mikewebb68]

21-10, with enough quality wins to have a shot at the Dance. We are first four out going into in the BTT, but we go 2-1 (23-11 overall) to seal the deal.

Sometimes, when the general wisdom is that next year is the year, the current year turns out that THIS year is the year. BMac exceeds even his lofty expectations, Law has a great year, a third scorer (Falzon? Brown? Lindsey?) steps up and Pardon does just enough at center to make it all work....

 

[spartcat]

Looking at the schedule 10 losses seems about right, but 3 or 4 of them are likely to be out of conference. No shot against Butler on the road, or Texas with the big, big guys in their recruiting class (and Shaka Smart as the coach) . The conference slate isn't as tough as it could be. We only play MSU, Wisconsin, and OSU once, and we could have a winning conference record and go dancing if we can get at least one o.o.c. upset and one or two wins over I.U., MSU, or OSU. Purdue is a BAD match up for us this year with their bigs...

 

[backdoorpass]

21-10, with enough quality wins to have a shot at the Dance. We are first four out going into in the BTT, but we go 2-1 (23-11 overall) to seal the deal.

Sometimes, when the general wisdom is that next year is the year, the current year turns out that THIS year is the year. BMac exceeds even his lofty expectations, Law has a great year, a third scorer (Falzon? Brown? Lindsey?) steps up and Pardon does just enough at center to make it all work....

This is about where I am falling. I think we have the talent and experience to be a NCAA Bubble team. Which side of the bubble we fall on will have everything to do with a few close games, what happens in critical possessions in those close games and so on. I hope we have the leadership, chemistry and fight to get over the hump. NCAA Tournament is a possibility.

 

[Medill90]

Sometimes, when the general wisdom is that next year is the year, the current year turns out that THIS year is the year. /QUOTE]

I think NU will be just as well equipped this year to get into the tournament as next year.

To do that....

* They can't have a prolonged losing streak....this means in conference beating a couple teams that you are supposed to lose to;
* Playing better defense....this means creating more turnovers and probably playing a lot more man;
* The team has to shoot better as a whole from three in conference. This is not a big banging team, they rely on distance shooting more than any other conference team. They have to shoot at around thirty nine percent which makes them one of the top shooting teams in the country.
* Losing in blow outs to top tier big ten teams will be a sign that they don't believe in themselves and aren't there yet. I think this is the year we don't see much of that.

We're going to learn just how good the coaching is this year. Must be NIT, could be NCAA.

 

[mickbula]

I think that we will miss having a 7-footer body like Olah in the middle. We will start fast until we get to big10 play and then fall apart like we have every year for the past 25 years. I think this team has more talent than ever in Evanston. It is just not enough to consistently beat the teams in the most talented conference in the nation on a regular basis. Sad, but true. I'd be surprised if we finish with a winning record.

 

[IGNORE2]

I'm having a tough time predicting this season. So many variables that could be really good or bad. So I will go with my hope: NU gets through OOC with no bad losses and one surprise win. In the process, a second primary ball handler emerges.

Into B1G, Mac is now allowed to play reasonable minutes on a solid 8 man rotation. The group gels and again, no bad losses and another surprise victory. A season without another major injury.

As talk about the bubble grows, we win a couple in the B1G but lose a closer than it should have been nail biter. Assured NIT, we debate the tourney, maybe dance, probably don't but feel real good about 2018.

MVP - Law
Most improved - Pardon
Best frosh - Benson
Mystery second ball handler...Lindsey (just can't get over my Lindsey crush...)

 

[backdoorpass]

...We will start fast until we get to big10 play and then fall apart like we have every year for the past 25 years. I think this team has more talent than ever in Evanston. It is just not enough to consistently beat the teams in the most talented conference in the nation on a regular basis...

The B1G Conference was, by all measures, the best or second best conference in America from 2010-11 to 2013-14. Since 2014-15, the B1G has finished 4th or 5th as a conference overall per kenpom and most other indexes (and predicted as 4th best this season). A .500 or better conference record is possible. We can compete! We have to take this opportunity!

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Cats make sweet 16

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

Cats make sweet 16

Ok - so we know that isn't going to happen now.

 

[Katatonic]

Best frosh - Benson

Maybe Benson ends up being the best (or most impactful) frosh by the end of the season, but coming in - had Brown, Rap (if healthy), Benson in that order in being most ready to play.

 

[cometclear]

18 or 19 wins sounds right. Maybe an NIT appearance, but that isn't good enough. If the program and, most importantly, recruiting, doesn't make a big jump by next year, this will all be academic. One-person fall recruiting classes in the fall won't cut it. Need to see recruits who chose NU over Wisconsin and Indiana, not Dayton and Butler.

 

[NJCat]

18 or 19 wins sounds right. Maybe an NIT appearance, but that isn't good enough. If the program and, most importantly, recruiting, doesn't make a big jump by next year, this will all be academic. One-person fall recruiting classes in the fall won't cut it. Need to see recruits who chose NU over Wisconsin and Indiana, not Dayton and Butler.

You do recall Butler playing in the Final 4 recently don't you? Getting guys who have offers from perennial tournament teams is the first step. Getting them over IU and Wisconsin is unrealistic right now.

 

[NUCat320]

Getting them over IU and Wisconsin is unrealistic right now.

1. Right or not, that's definitely not how CCC sees it.
2. <cough cough> Barret Benson <cough cough>

 

[NJCat]

1. Right or not, that's definitely not how CCC sees it.
2. <cough cough> Barret Benson <cough cough>

Barret did have an IU offer. I forgot. My point is that people denigrating the Collins recruits because they "only" have offers from the likes of Butler are crazy. NU is improving its recruiting and once the new WRA is complete should be able to up their game even more.

 

[Sec.112]

OK, so they've played one game and now I throw out a prediction. So kill me.

Allow me to repeat what I said after Saturday's game. This team is at least as good as last year's crew, so I don't see much of any drop.

Last year, Demps scored 15.7/game in the conference. Can Law and Brown replace those numbers? I could see Law scoring a minimum of 10/game, and Brown scoring 5/game ... definitely.

Whatever they don't score will be more than made up for with defense. Those three possessions a game will be gone where the defense needs to recover because Demps is out of place.

Next question: Can Pardon, BB and Skelly replace Olah, Pardon and JVZ's 19.9 pts/game and 10.7 rbs/game in the conference?

The rebounds I bet they can replace with the help of Law. The points I'm not so sure. If Pardon can play 25-30 mins/game, I bet he can score 12/game. The other seven can be made up from Skelly and another improved player. There are a couple.

That also doesn't consider Lindsey who scares the hell out of me at prediction time. He looked really improved on Friday, but I've seen his disappearing act too often.

Lots of "ifs" with two big questions:

* Is Pardon a 25-30 minute center?
* Can they get 10 pts/game out of Lindsey? Then, I think we're talking four double-digit scorers to go with better defense.

However, I will bet on Brown, Law, a moderately-improved Pardon and a reasonably improved Skelly to go with McIntosh.

Let's say:

* 8 non-conference, no-brainer wins - They will screw one up somewhere.
* Can they win at least two more against Butler, Texas Dayton or Notre Dame/Colorado? I think they need it, and it's a good possibility. So let's say 10 non-conf wins.
* 10 conference wins - That includes two wins over Illinois as well as wins over Iowa and Maryland.
That doesn't leave a whole lot of wiggle room. I'm not sure this group is ready for that level of consistency. * Even they do reach 10 wins, I think they need to win AT LEAST one (and maybe two) against OSU, Michigan and others. For the tournament, they're going to need a few more quality wins besides the two non-conf wins.

I keep thinking about Michigan's resume last year in a medicore B10 - 23-13 (10-8). And that was one of the last teams in the tournament.

Optimistically, I'm looking at 21-10 (11-7). And I think that's a stretch when we're banking on four non-starters from last year.

I just don't think NU is there yet. I think you might get that huge improvement from Law. But I wouldn't want to bet on a similar jump from Pardon AND Lindsey to go along with a nice freshman season from Brown. That's just too many "ifs" for me.

20-11 (10-8) and an NIT.

Get what you need from Brown or Lindsey as well as Pardon, and I think this is a different story.

 

[Deeringfish]

I don't know BB (sports in general) as well as you guys but I want to play.

Last year the talk was we had a chance because we were strong at Center with Olah and JVZ. Demps was going to be clutch in his final season. Baring that, we were going to have to wait till next 2017-2018 to excel.

JVZ got hurt. Olah was ok but not the dominant player many had hoped for. Demps had a baby and did ok but didn't really put the team on his back in the closing minutes of games as his Jr year suggested he might be capable of. Law missed the season. In the face of all that, didn't the Cats win more games than in any previous season? and still not make a tournament.

So this year, with out drinking too much purple KoolAid, I think we will remain challenged at Center as Pardon will have foul trouble but the team will be stronger over all.

I predict NIT.

 

[Medill90]

If Pardon can play 25-30 mins/game, I bet he can score 12/game. The other seven can be made up from Skelly and another improved player. There are a couple.

That also doesn't consider Lindsey who scares the hell out of me at prediction time. He looked really improved on Friday, but I've seen his disappearing act too often.

Great post Sec 112...enjoyable read.

Given the type of player that Pardon is I think double digit scoring is a tough ask. Think he'll get 8ish pts a game. However, he may equal his points with rebounds. The greatly improved rebounding will improve possessions and efficiency. This is a faster, more athletic team that should improve on steals as well.

Through two games, Lindsey looks like he's dialed in.

The NIT should be expected. The tournament is a stretch. But there's enough talent on this team to go on a little run and make the tournament.

I do not think Illinois is going to suck this year so those aren't automatic wins. They will be hotly contested games.

 

[ricko654321]

I can't wait for the season to start tomorrow. I think this is going to be an enjoyable team to watch. Time to make our preseason predictions. I'd ask xyzbob to revisit them at the end of the year using his expertise with the all-powerful search capability of the new Rivals site.

I think the Cats go 18-13 in the regular season, with OOC losses @Butler and to TX and CO in BKY. BMac will be the leading scorer and be second team All Big 10. Inexperience at the 5 will hurt, and Collins is still short 4 of his own scholarship players. No post season but I think the Cats are better this year than the 2015-16 edition.

Your thoughts?

Late to the fray here, but this is exactly where I would fall out. I think we are a bit better than the team last year, but the SOS out of conference and in conference will be a bit tougher. So I'd say 10-3 OOC (pick 3 losses out of Butler, Dayton, the 2 in Bk, B1G/ACC, or maybe an upset), and then 8-10 in conference. If you surmise that makes us about 8th or 9th in conference, maybe we go 1-1 in the BTT and finish 19-14. I think w the harder SOS that gives us a good shot to get into the back end of the NIT.

 

[NJCat]

Late to the fray here, but this is exactly where I would fall out. I think we are a bit better than the team last year, but the SOS out of conference and in conference will be a bit tougher. So I'd say 10-3 OOC (pick 3 losses out of Butler, Dayton, the 2 in Bk, B1G/ACC, or maybe an upset), and then 8-10 in conference. If you surmise that makes us about 8th or 9th in conference, maybe we go 1-1 in the BTT and finish 19-14. I think w the harder SOS that gives us a good shot to get into the back end of the NIT.

bump.

Most of us were wrong on the OOC predicting 3 losses. If before the season you have told me Falzon would be out and Pardon injured after Wake, no way would I have said 10-3 let alone believed 11-2. Goes to show how difficult it is to make accurate predictions, particularly about the future!

 

[DaCat]

I guess that's why they play the games.

 

[IGNORE2]

I'm having a tough time predicting this season. So many variables that could be really good or bad. So I will go with my hope: NU gets through OOC with no bad losses and one surprise win. In the process, a second primary ball handler emerges.

Into B1G, Mac is now allowed to play reasonable minutes on a solid 8 man rotation. The group gels and again, no bad losses and another surprise victory. A season without another major injury.

As talk about the bubble grows, we win a couple in the B1G but lose a closer than it should have been nail biter. Assured NIT, we debate the tourney, maybe dance, probably don't but feel real good about 2018.

MVP - Law
Most improved - Pardon
Best frosh - Benson
Mystery second ball handler...Lindsey (just can't get over my Lindsey crush...)

Looks like we have that solid 8 man rotation. MVP - too early. Most improved - too early, too many option but not Pardon. Frosh - too soon. 2nd BH - too soon, but slight edge to Lindsey w Brown right there too. Not Law.

 

[DaCat]

I'm looking for Mac to kick up his game to another level when Big 10 play starts. I think he is the key to how far this team can go this year.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

The Big Ten is down this year no really strong teams we can hang with anybody if we get our centers to play tough that's the the most important thing

 

[Medill90]

The Big Ten is down this year no really strong teams we can hang with anybody if we get our centers to play tough that's the the most important thing

It needs to be all five men on the court playing tough defense and communicating really well. No one on the floor or bench can bail out poor team play for NU.

 

[mikewebb68]

Bump. Looks like most posters were in the 18-20 range, though a few correctly predicted 21.

 

[IGNORE2]

I'm having a tough time predicting this season. So many variables that could be really good or bad. So I will go with my hope: NU gets through OOC with no bad losses and one surprise win. In the process, a second primary ball handler emerges.

Into B1G, Mac is now allowed to play reasonable minutes on a solid 8 man rotation. The group gels and again, no bad losses and another surprise victory. A season without another major injury.

As talk about the bubble grows, we win a couple in the B1G but lose a closer than it should have been nail biter. Assured NIT, we debate the tourney, maybe dance, probably don't but feel real good about 2018.

MVP - Law
Most improved - Pardon
Best frosh - Benson
Mystery second ball handler...Lindsey (just can't get over my Lindsey crush...)

Wow - happy with my team prediction. Individually - MVP - not Law, probably Mac; Most improved - not Pardon, Lindsey with HMs to Tap and Lump; Best frosh - I will still take Benson here; second ballhandler - none, team effort throughout the season, no one player developed into that role.

 

[mikewebb68]

21-10, with enough quality wins to have a shot at the Dance. We are first four out going into in the BTT, but we go 2-1 (23-11 overall) to seal the deal.

Sometimes, when the general wisdom is that next year is the year, the current year turns out that THIS year is the year. BMac exceeds even his lofty expectations, Law has a great year, a third scorer (Falzon? Brown? Lindsey?) steps up and Pardon does just enough at center to make it all work....

OK, except for the first four out part coming into the BTT, I somehow nailed this so far. But I am hoping that I am incorrect about the BTT and we go 3-1 or 4-0!