2024-25 NET ratings thread

[Styre]

The first NET ratings of the season have been released, and NU checks in at #73. Obviously this needs to get better, as that is not enough to make the tournament, but there's a lot of season left to play. I'll track our resume every week or so.

A general rule of thumb is that Quad 1 wins help your resume and Quad 3/4 losses hurt it. So here's our first resume of the year:

QUAD 1 (0-2)
A #40 Dayton - L
N #47 Butler - L

QUAD 2 (0-0)

QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #132 Montana State - W
N #149 UNLV - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #161 UIC - W
H #279 Pepperdine - W
H #299 Eastern Illinois - W
H #302 Lehigh - W

We'd like to see Butler stay in the top 50 to keep that as a Q1 loss, but Q2 losses don't hurt so it's not a big deal either way. Similarly, UIC would be a Q3 win if they improved just one spot to #160, but a Q3 win isn't worth much more than a Q4 win.

This week, NU has a Q1 road game at #54 Iowa and a Q1 home game against #10 Illinois. Obviously any win over Illinois would be big, but the game in Iowa City appears winnable and would be a good early resume builder.

 

[Styre]

After a brutal loss in Iowa City and a nailbiter upset of Illinois at home, NU finds itself at #63 in the NET ratings, a jump from last week. The Butler loss has dropped down to Quad 2, while the Montana State win keeps looking better.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #12 Illinois - W
A #37 Dayton - L
A #47 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #59 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #102 Montana State - W
N #152 UNLV - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #244 Pepperdine - W
H #250 UIC - W
H #270 Lehigh - W
H #300 Eastern Illinois - W

Only one game this week, a Quad 3 neutral site game against #171 Georgia Tech. Needless to say, a loss in Milwaukee would hurt.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think that Montana State win might end up in Quad 2 down the road. Their epic dismantling of Northwest Indian College, 93-35, seemed to put them on a better trajectory of play. They will have their chance to make some hay against USC and TCU. I think they match up well with USC, who has been inconsistent this season.

 

[Styre]

The easy win in Milwaukee sees NU rising slightly to #59. Given the strength of the Big Ten, heading into the bulk of conference play with a NET in the 50s would be a good sign. Sadly, the Montana State win will not be improving anytime soon, as they dropped 40 places after being annihilated by USC.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #14 Illinois - W
A #23 Dayton - L
A #51 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #76 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (3-0)
H #141 Montana State - W
N #154 UNLV - W
N #175 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #219 UIC - W
H #225 Pepperdine - W
H #268 Lehigh - W
H #305 Eastern Illinois - W

This week features one Quad 2 home game, with a much more respectable DePaul team at #70.

 

[olshin]

Kinda thinking our Butler game drops into Tier 3 by end of season. Not ideal, but ....... not a deal breaker.

 

[EagerFan]

Yeah, Butler needs to get their stuff together and start winning.

 

[Styre]

The comfortable win over DePaul has NU up to #54, solidly in bubble territory, though in doing so we knocked them into Quad 3. No major movement apart from Dayton tumbling, but they're still easily in Quad 1 territory.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #14 Illinois - W
A #41 Dayton - L
A #48 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #71 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
H #86 DePaul - W
N #121 UNLV - W
H #152 Montana State - W
N #173 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #184 UIC - W
H #202 Pepperdine - W
H #261 Lehigh - W
H #308 Eastern Illinois - W

This week will see NU's final non-conference game, a Quad 3 home game against #148 Northeastern.

 

[rwhitney014]

The comfortable win over DePaul has NU up to #54, solidly in bubble territory, though in doing so we knocked them into Quad 3. No major movement apart from Dayton tumbling, but they're still easily in Quad 1 territory.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #14 Illinois - W
A #41 Dayton - L
A #48 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #71 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
H #86 DePaul - W
N #121 UNLV - W
H #152 Montana State - W
N #173 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #184 UIC - W
H #202 Pepperdine - W
H #261 Lehigh - W
H #308 Eastern Illinois - W

This week will see NU's final non-conference game, a Quad 3 home game against #148 Northeastern.

It's really nice that Northeastern is #148, rather than the game we often play now against Mississippi Valley St., Detroit Mercy, Prairie View A&M, or Chicago State (especially when they beat us!). Obviously, gotta go out and win it, and clearly not a gimme because they seem like a solid bunch. But those games against Quad 4 teams can hurt you, so it's nice that one of these is a better quality opponent. Likewise with Montana State.

 

[Styre]

It's really nice that Northeastern is #148, rather than the game we often play now against Mississippi Valley St., Detroit Mercy, Prairie View A&M, or Chicago State (especially when they beat us!). Obviously, gotta go out and win it, and clearly not a gimme because they seem like a solid bunch. But those games against Quad 4 teams can hurt you, so it's nice that one of these is a better quality opponent. Likewise with Montana State.

Agreed. Even though we've only had one Quad 1 non-conference game, the average strength of opponent this year is much higher than normal. It's nice to challenge the team a bit more without having half the schedule in the 300s.

 

[rwhitney014]

Agreed. Even though we've only had one Quad 1 non-conference game, the average strength of opponent this year is much higher than normal. It's nice to challenge the team a bit more without having half the schedule in the 300s.

Right, and with the exception of EIU, we've handled those games the way you're supposed to. Montana State by 3 isn't so bad when they're where they are; beating the bricks off GT, DePaul, Pepperdine and Lehigh is excellent.

I suppose this is the blunt end of the knife with heartbreaking losses. I imagine they don't drop us in the metrics as much because they were so close. Still frustrating to be so close to 12-0 and ranked quite highly going into the conference season.

 

[Catreporter]

That Iowa loss really stings. Road win against a quality team would really have improved our number and given us a little cushion going into the grind. I'm hoping we sneak up on Penn State whose students and fans will be returning from the Fiesta Bowl, but their press destroyed Purdue and we might be vulnerable to it as well.

 

[Styre]

The non-conference portion of NU's schedule is over, and they enter conference play at #48, putting them in solid position to make their third straight tournament with a solid conference campaign. UIC has moved up to a Quad 3 win, for what that's worth.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #9 Illinois - W
A #42 Dayton - L
A #50 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #70 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (5-0)
H #86 DePaul - W
N #115 UNLV - W
H #150 UIC - W
H #158 Montana State - W
N #159 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #165 Northeastern - W
H #201 Pepperdine - W
H #258 Lehigh - W
H #305 Eastern Illinois - W

This week is one of the roughest of the entire conference schedule, with Quad 1 road games at Penn State (#32) and Purdue (#37).

 

[rwhitney014]

The non-conference portion of NU's schedule is over, and they enter conference play at #48, putting them in solid position to make their third straight tournament with a solid conference campaign. UIC has moved up to a Quad 3 win, for what that's worth.

QUAD 1 (1-2)
H #9 Illinois - W
A #42 Dayton - L
A #50 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #70 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (5-0)
H #86 DePaul - W
N #115 UNLV - W
H #150 UIC - W
H #158 Montana State - W
N #159 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (4-0)
H #165 Northeastern - W
H #201 Pepperdine - W
H #258 Lehigh - W
H #305 Eastern Illinois - W

This week is one of the roughest of the entire conference schedule, with Quad 1 road games at Penn State (#32) and Purdue (#37).

Class won’t be in session at Purdue. Mackey will still be full, but maybe a touch less raucous than usual?

Just split the week and go from there. A win would be great.

 

[EagerFan]

I agree, let's split the weekend. One loss for Penn State and one loss for Purdue.

go Cats!

 

[Catreporter]

UIC moving on up. Beat Illinois State away and then 12-0 Drake with wins over Vandy (their only loss) and Kansas State at home. Would guess they will remain safely in Quad 3 unless the roof caves in on them. DePaul hung with UConn a bit. I'm guessing they will win several Big East games before they are done. Need Butler to hold on vs. Villanova and it will be a nice New Years Day for the Cats.

 

[Hungry Jack]

UIC moving on up. Beat Illinois State away and then 12-0 Drake with wins over Vandy (their only loss) and Kansas State at home. Would guess they will remain safely in Quad 3 unless the roof caves in on them. DePaul hung with UConn a bit. I'm guessing they will win several Big East games before they are done. Need Butler to hold on vs. Villanova and it will be a nice New Years Day for the Cats.

Butler gave up a 18-0 run at home vs Villanova to piss away a 13 point lead with about 5 minutes to go. Terrible shot selection and ball handling, with 3 turnovers in the final 90 seconds.

Butler fans probably want to vomit after that.

EDIT: It looks like Butler's collapse knocked us down one notch in KenPom to 46. I am starting to hate that loss.

 

[Styre]

As expected, it was a rough week for NU with two road losses including one blowout. Thankfully, this did not cost us that much, as NU currently sits at #53, which is still in bubble territory. UNLV is close to moving up to Quad 2, while Montana State dropped to Quad 4.

QUAD 1 (1-4)
H #7 Illinois - W
A #26 Purdue - L
A #48 Penn State - L
A #54 Dayton - L
A #58 Iowa - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #78 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
N #102 UNLV - W
H #106 DePaul - W
H #133 UIC - W
N #139 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (5-0)
H #179 Montana State - W
H #192 Pepperdine - W
H #194 Northeastern - W
H #267 Lehigh - W
H #318 Eastern Illinois - W

This week features a Quad 1 home game against #19 Michigan State.

 

[Styre]

Another rough loss for NU sees us drop a bit more to #56. We're not being punished that much for struggling against a brutal schedule but at some point NU has to start winning to bring that number up. Butler needs to start winning as well - if they drop out of the top 100 that officially becomes a bad loss.

QUAD 1 (1-5)
H #9 Illinois - W
H #14 Michigan State - L
A #15 Purdue - L
A #45 Iowa - L
A #51 Penn State - L
A #61 Dayton - L

QUAD 2 (0-1)
N #88 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
H #119 UIC - W
N #124 UNLV - W
H #133 DePaul - W
N #146 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (5-0)
H #190 Pepperdine - W
H #191 Montana State - W
H #206 Northeastern - W
H #286 Lehigh - W
H #335 Eastern Illinois - W

Unfortunately, this week doesn't get much easier, with a Quad 1 home game against #22 Maryland and a Quad 1 road game against #11 Michigan.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Similarly, our "ability" to chip away at big deficits at garbage time has limited the damage in KenPom. But we gotta beat some good teams if a Tournament is to be any possibility.

 

[Styre]

Splitting the week and playing Michigan close has bumped NU up to #51, and we finally picked up another Quad 1 win and need Maryland to stay in the top 30 to maintain it. UNLV has jumped up to a Quad 2 win, while Dayton is very close to falling to a Quad 2 loss.

QUAD 1 (2-6)
H #8 Illinois - W
A #10 Purdue - L
A #12 Michigan - L
H #16 Michigan State - L
H #24 Maryland - W
A #47 Penn State - L
A #55 Iowa - L
A #74 Dayton - L

QUAD 2 (1-1)
N #88 Butler - L
N #96 UNLV - W

QUAD 3 (3-0)
H #110 UIC - W
H #111 DePaul - W
N #155 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (5-0)
H #183 Montana State - W
H #200 Northeastern - W
H #211 Pepperdine - W
H #308 Lehigh - W
H #339 Eastern Illinois - W

This week features a Quad 2 home game against #61 Indiana and a Quad 1 road game at #8 Illinois.

 

[Styre]

Another slight bump for NU over the week as we now sit at #49. Battling back at the end of the Illinois game to cut the final margin to single digits probably helped our statistical profile from taking too much of a hit. #49 is enough to be on the bubble but 3-6 in conference is not, so NU needs to start stacking wins as the schedule gets a bit easier. Meanwhile, UNLV has dropped back into Quad 3.

QUAD 1 (2-7)
A #9 Purdue - L
H #10 Illinois - W
A #10 Illinois - L
H #17 Michigan State - L
H #19 Maryland - W
A #20 Michigan - L
A #51 Penn State - L
A #62 Iowa - L
A #70 Dayton - L

QUAD 2 (1-1)
H #68 Indiana - W
N #85 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
N #104 UNLV - W
H #115 UIC - W
H #136 DePaul - W
N #151 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (5-0)
H #191 Montana State - W
H #192 Northeastern - W
H #216 Pepperdine - W
H #282 Lehigh - W
H #347 Eastern Illinois - W

This week features a Quad 3 home game against #83 Rutgers and a Quad 1 home game against #18 Wisconsin.

 

[loyolacat]

you think 3-8 against the top half of the teams in DI is gonna get it done? I think they are going to need a couple more quad 1 Ws.

 

[Davidgolds5]

Need that Wisconsin win. Might need some hometown ref cooking.

 

[Styre]

you think 3-8 against the top half of the teams in DI is gonna get it done? I think they are going to need a couple more quad 1 Ws.

Depends what they do with the rest of the schedule, but yes, they will likely need more. Wisconsin and possibly UCLA at home are good opportunities, and it'd be really nice if they could steal one in Columbus or Eugene.

They may have to win one of those no matter what, as they might need to go 7-4 or 8-3 down the stretch to have a shot.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Need 11-9 with a road win at Maryland or at Ohio State and win at Minnesota. 10-10 won’t do it.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Another slight bump for NU over the week as we now sit at #49. Battling back at the end of the Illinois game to cut the final margin to single digits probably helped our statistical profile from taking too much of a hit. #49 is enough to be on the bubble but 3-6 in conference is not, so NU needs to start stacking wins as the schedule gets a bit easier. Meanwhile, UNLV has dropped back into Quad 3.

QUAD 1 (2-7)
A #9 Purdue - L
H #10 Illinois - W
A #10 Illinois - L
H #17 Michigan State - L
H #19 Maryland - W
A #20 Michigan - L
A #51 Penn State - L
A #62 Iowa - L
A #70 Dayton - L

QUAD 2 (1-1)
H #68 Indiana - W
N #85 Butler - L

QUAD 3 (4-0)
N #104 UNLV - W
H #115 UIC - W
H #136 DePaul - W
N #151 Georgia Tech - W

QUAD 4 (5-0)
H #191 Montana State - W
H #192 Northeastern - W
H #216 Pepperdine - W
H #282 Lehigh - W
H #347 Eastern Illinois - W

This week features a Quad 3 home game against #83 Rutgers and a Quad 1 home game against #18 Wisconsin.

Hey Styre - thanks for doing this. I am not a fan of NET (because of the arbitrary cutoffs between QUADS) but I do appreciate your weekly updates.

I'm not crazy about the reality of our situation, but your updates state the cold hard facts.

I was thinking 10-10 might be good enough - but we'd have to make a run in the Big Ten tournament to really have a chance.

 

[Styre]

Hey Styre - thanks for doing this. I am not a fan of NET (because of the arbitrary cutoffs between QUADS) but I do appreciate your weekly updates.

I'm not crazy about the reality of our situation, but your updates state the cold hard facts.

I was thinking 10-10 might be good enough - but we'd have to make a run in the Big Ten tournament to really have a chance.

Yeah 10-10 would be very tough. B1G practically has 9 NCAA locks already and we're currently in a clear second tier of conference NET ratings. We're on top of that tier but it would help if we could close the gap with the teams above us.

 

[Davidgolds5]

Yeah 10-10 would be very tough. B1G practically has 9 NCAA locks already and we're currently in a clear second tier of conference NET ratings. We're on top of that tier but it would help if we could close the gap with the teams above us.

Who are the nine locks? I count 8. Should cats fans (in addition to our own wins) be rooting against that tier of teams outside of that top 8?

 

[Styre]

Who are the nine locks? I count 8. Should cats fans (in addition to our own wins) be rooting against that tier of teams outside of that top 8?

Purdue, Illinois, MSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State, UCLA by my count. You could argue that OSU isn't a lock but at NET 29 I'd be feeling pretty good. UCLA is at 33 but they already have five Q1 wins.

Looking at it more closely, we're in a "bubble tier" with Penn State. The rest of the conference doesn't have much chance barring miracle runs. So I don't think we don't really need to root against anyone except PSU, and even then we want them to be good enough to keep that as a Q1 loss. It's really up to NU - can they take care of business in the second half?

 

[Hungry Jack]

PSU should be better. It’s a better roster than most. They keep losing close games.

 

[macarthur31]

PSU should be better. It’s a better roster than most. They keep losing close games.

I caught the 2nd half of the PSU @ Michigan tilt last night, and I'm trying to figure out how they lost that one. I don't know how much of it was as Houdini act by UM, or just straight collapse by PSU - but the Nits missed a great quad 1 chance there.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Those losses to Iowa and P State are going to haunt us

 

[Catreporter]

Those losses to Iowa and P State are going to haunt us

Yep, change those results and we would be in the hunt for the NCAAs. I frankly am focused on finishing with a winning record and earning an NIT bid (which we may not want). Still, it's been a fun team to watch and our home wins in the BIG have been memorable so far.

 

[Styre]

Yep, change those results and we would be in the hunt for the NCAAs. I frankly am focused on finishing with a winning record and earning an NIT bid (which we may not want). Still, it's been a fun team to watch and our home wins in the BIG have been memorable so far.

Barring a complete collapse we're virtually guaranteed to be in the NIT and hosting at least 1 game.