1) Coming up short against Wisconsin, a likely 4 seed as of today, without Barnhizer doesn't mean we're a bad team. Yes, we're probably somewhere between the 12th and 17th-best Big 10 team now but still a top 60-ish team in the country. We just play in an unforgiving league and came up on the wrong end of some close ones we needed to win. I'm not giving up on these guys making a run to some sort of postseason play.
2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.
3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.
4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.
5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.
6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.
2) As a Pacific NW resident/native, I'm loving the upcoming trip up this way even though they'll be late start times for most fans watching on TV. I'm happy to be able to be close enough to support the team in person, I'm driving to Seattle on Saturday and Eugene next Tuesday to attend both games.
3) There's been a lot of talk about Nicholson on another thread. EvanMiya has a metric called "Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating" (DBPR) that measures a player's total impact on defense (including how their presence on the floor increases the defensive performance of teammates). Nicholson is tied for 2nd *in the entire Big 10* in this rating with Danny Wolf, just below Morez Johnson. Looking at "on/off the floor" ratings, our defensive rating is 16.4 points better per 100 possessions with Matt on the floor than when he sits. No other player on our team is worth more than 4.6 points per 100 possessions on D, and that's KJ Windham who hasn't played much in conference games. Unsurprisingly, Matt leads our team in raw +/- and we outscored both Wisconsin and Rutgers by 7 points when Matt was on the floor. He's really important despite the lack of development in his offensive game.
4) This may be unpopular, but I don't think "making this Nick's team" is a winning approach the rest of this season. I hope Leach is at least considered option 1B moving forward as he's been playing very well. I like how Leach is able to dribble into good looks from 3 and from the elbow off of high screens, and I think those are much better looks than what Nick throws up 6 or 7 times a game. I love Nick but teams are starting to solve him a bit, and he's forcing shots that just aren't there. I like when the ball moves on offense and Nick is able to get into a move quickly after the catch. I don't like when he gets the ball at the arc and spends 11 seconds backing down a defender only to end up forcing up an off-balance leaner with 3 guys on him. Because he has this funky arsenal of moves it seems like he thinks he can improvise under pressure and it's becoming less successful. He's 18-for-53 the last 3 games, but more concerning is that he's 13-for-36 on 2-pointers. That's too many wasted possessions.
5) Gelo was horribad on Saturday, but he has to play. So does KJ. They're the future of the team. Get them minutes while still keeping the core of Martinelli/Leach/Berry/Nicholson. I used to be higher on Mullins but I'm coming back the other way. Mullins with the other 4 starters is our worst-performing lineup. Let's prioritize the freshmen and use Mullins when needed.
6) I think we'll be fine next year. The incoming class is good. We have two young guys who should take big jumps. Martinelli will be back. We'll have a wide open spot for a big man in the portal who wants to start in the Big 10. We've landed two nice guards out of mid-major programs the last two years, so hopefully we can do that again. I'm not gloomy about the future.
