Athlon Top 15 Teams on the Rise

[NJCat]

Of course the Cats are one of them.....

"Wisconsin is the early favorite to win the Big Ten West next fall, but coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team is one to watch this offseason."

http://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-top-15-teams-rise-2017

 

[DarthCat]

Again, I maintain that winning your bowl game does wonderful things for the program in the eyes of everyone who is 'evaluating' it, article authors and recruits as well.

 

[Deeringfish]

Again, I maintain that winning your bowl game does wonderful things for the program in the eyes of everyone who is 'evaluating' it, article authors and recruits as well.

I have agree with this. I think we have gotten a bigger bump from winning a lesser bowl after a 6-6 season than we got from losing a bigger bowl after a 10-2 season.

Obviously the best thing is to win the better bowl but if you're trying to build up (which is getting to be long in coming), it seems better to win a lesser bowl than go to the big game and get slaughtered.

Having said all that, Pitt was a good team and beat some good teams so that made the victory pretty solid.

 

[ricko654321]

Again, I maintain that winning your bowl game does wonderful things for the program in the eyes of everyone who is 'evaluating' it, article authors and recruits as well.

I'm all in favor of the articles, but preseason talk don't mean jack squat. We all must remember vividly what happened the last time we won our bowl game and got ranked in subsequent preseason polls... 5-7, followed by 5-7 again.

The win in the bowl game was huge cause we matched up against a very good team in Pitt and beat them, not just bc we got a bowl win by itself. Beating a 6-6 MAC patsy would not have been helpful for the program in the way that beating Pitt was. So again, chalking up bowl wins against inferior opponents is not the way to advance NU football. Playing against good teams and learning how to beat them is.

 

[NJCat]

I have agree with this. I think we have gotten a bigger bump from winning a lesser bowl after a 6-6 season than we got from losing a bigger bowl after a 10-2 season.

Obviously the best thing is to win the better bowl but if you're trying to build up (which is getting to be long in coming), it seems better to win a lesser bowl than go to the big game and get slaughtered.

Having said all that, Pitt was a good team and beat some good teams so that made the victory pretty solid.

I think numerically it is pretty hard to be "on the rise" when you are 10-3......frankly, I thought NU was more of an 8-5 or 9-4 team last season (minus the CT fumble against WMU and crapping the bed against ISU, both games the Cats should have won).

 

[DarthCat]

I'm all in favor of the articles, but preseason talk don't mean jack squat. We all must remember vividly what happened the last time we won our bowl game and got ranked in subsequent preseason polls... 5-7, followed by 5-7 again.

The win in the bowl game was huge cause we matched up against a very good team in Pitt and beat them, not just bc we got a bowl win by itself. Beating a 6-6 MAC patsy would not have been helpful for the program in the way that beating Pitt was. So again, chalking up bowl wins against inferior opponents is not the way to advance NU football. Playing against good teams and learning how to beat them is.

I never said anything about what the off season press means for the actual season. Not my point. And you have no idea what a bowl win against an 'inferior' opponent would mean in the post season program perception because it hasn't happened.

And I'll argue that off season press and the media stance means a hell of a lot as a recruiting class is being targeting and the prospect list built. It is a strong image bump that lasts 8 months and isn't undone by a latest surprising loss.

But my actual point was that we've seen exceptional seasons largely dismissed in terms of 3rd party evaluators when we've lost in more marquee bowl games. Nobody cared how high we were picked in the bowl pecking order, how well we played in the game, or the credentials of our opponent. All was recalled was the W or L, unless we were stomped, and then that was recalled as well.

Next year, it won't matter the record of our opponent at all, NU football will advance with ANY bowl win. The narrative will be that after being 0-9 in bowl games since 1949, NU is 3-1 in their last four bowls. Again, few will care who we beat or in what game.

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

I never said anything about what the off season press means for the actual season. Not my point. And you have no idea what a bowl win against an 'inferior' opponent would mean in the post season program perception because it hasn't happened.

And I'll argue that off season press and the media stance means a hell of a lot as a recruiting class is being targeting and the prospect list built. It is a strong image bump that lasts 8 months and isn't undone by a latest surprising loss.

But my actual point was that we've seen exceptional seasons largely dismissed in terms of 3rd party evaluators when we've lost in more marquee bowl games. Nobody cared how high we were picked in the bowl pecking order, how well we played in the game, or the credentials of our opponent. All was recalled was the W or L, unless we were stomped, and then that was recalled as well.

Next year, it won't matter the record of our opponent at all, NU football will advance with ANY bowl win. The narrative will be that after being 0-9 in bowl games since 1949, NU is 3-1 in their last four bowls. Again, few will care who we beat or in what game.

I saw a lot of people picking NU to be a challenger to Iowa last year even coming off the loss to Tennessee. I have a feeling if you asked joe football fan or joe football media they wouldn't be able to tell you who won 50% of the bowl games that took place within the last month - I know I certainly couldn't. Outside of the big bowls and those in which you have a rooting interest, the results of the bowls are meaningless

 

[DarthCat]

I don't care about 'Joe Football Fan'. We don't need to. No program does. And bowl wins being meaningless to you is fine, because with all due respect, YOU are meaningless when it comes to determining the future recruiting success or failure of this program or any other.

What we need to care about is the image created by the win with the people we do care about, HS players and their parents. If you don't think that image matters to recruits and families evaluating schools, you're delusional. I don't give a flying f*^k either about who won what outside of NU. But if NU was calling me and sending me letters, inviting me to their camps and working hard to get me to commit, along with 20 other schools, and I had to make a choice where I was going to play in short order, you're goddamned right I'd care about what they did on a big stage, the success I saw their kids have on that stage, and the outlook talking heads had for the program.

If you think these kids who we see pick schools for any variety of crazy reasons isn't putting up there as a positive attribute a recent bowl win, and the likelihood of future bowl wins, I think you're nuts.

It never ceases to amaze me the lack of understanding 'fans' have of the recruiting process, and think the program is being evaluated by 17 year olds based on what these 'fans' care about, not what matters to a teenager and his family.

 

[ricko654321]

I don't care about 'Joe Football Fan'. We don't need to. No program does. And bowl wins being meaningless to you is fine, because with all due respect, YOU are meaningless when it comes to determining the future recruiting success or failure of this program or any other.

What we need to care about is the image created by the win with the people we do care about, HS players and their parents. If you don't think that image matters to recruits and families evaluating schools, you're delusional. I don't give a flying f*^k either about who won what outside of NU. But if NU was calling me and sending me letters, inviting me to their camps and working hard to get me to commit, along with 20 other schools, and I had to make a choice where I was going to play in short order, you're goddamned right I'd care about what they did on a big stage, the success I saw their kids have on that stage, and the outlook talking heads had for the program.

If you think these kids who we see pick schools for any variety of crazy reasons isn't putting up there as a positive attribute a recent bowl win, and the likelihood of future bowl wins, I think you're nuts.

It never ceases to amaze me the lack of understanding 'fans' have of the recruiting process, and think the program is being evaluated by 17 year olds based on what these 'fans' care about, not what matters to a teenager and his family.

Dude I have plenty of understanding of the college football recruiting process, I just think you're wrong. You keep talking about a "big stage" as if some crap bowl against the Mac or whatever else is a stage anyone cares about. You'd rather play in a game that people are going to watch against good competition than beat a crappy team.

And your point that bowl wins lead to offseason hype is not true either... example 1 here is the SI way too early top 25, the first such list that showed up when I googled it:
http://www.si.com/college-football/photo/2017/01/13/way-too-early-college-football-top-25
That list consists of:
- 12-13 Power 5 teams that won bowls against high quality P5 opponents with 8+ reg season wins, none against minor conference opponents
- 7-8 P5 teams who lost their bowl game, all to high quality opponents in P5 conferences, most or all of them to teams in the above group. (The team split between the two categories is Alabama)
- 3 P5 traditional blue blood type teams that did not qualify for a bowl - Texas, Oregon, UCLA, but got ranked anyways
- and a grand total of 2 teams - #15 Georgia and #25 South Florida - that beat a 6-6 P5 opponent. Georgia we can be pretty sure would be ranked preseason regardless of whether they won, lost or even participated in a bowl. USF beat South Carolina, in a relatively mediocre bowl -- keep in mind USF was already ranked at the end of the regular season last year before winning that game, and SC is still in a major conference, so that bowl win didn't "spring" them any higher in the preseason ranks than they closed the prior year
(auxiliary note- the top 10 was 5 top bowl winners, 4 top bowl losers, plus Alabama)

Further to this point, here is a comprehensive list of teams that beat 7-5 or 6-6 (or 5-7) non P5 opponents in bowl games:
- New Mexico (over UTSA)
- Arkansas St (over UCF)
- Southern Miss (over ULL)
- Tulsa (over CMich)
- Idaho (over Co St)
- Old Dominion (over EMU)
- Miss St (over Miami OH)
- Army (over N Texas)
- Air Force (over S Alabama)

And here is a comprehensive list of teams that beat 7-5 or 6-6 (or 5-7) P5 opponents in bowl games:
- Boston College (over MD)
- NC St (over Vandy)
- #19 Utah (over Indiana)
- #22 Va Tech (over 7-5! Arkansas)
- #25 USF (over S Carolina)
- Georgia (over TCU)
- Ga Tech (over 7-5! Kentucky)

Does that strike you as a list of teams that is hyped and talked up for 2017? It doesn't to me... in fact two teams that were ranked at the end of reg season last year and beat mediocre teams dropped OUT of the top 25. And even those teams that beat slightly less mediocre 7-5 P5 conference teams, that furthest I stretched that definition, still have gotten no publicity or hype bounce. Do you really think BC is getting a sizable late recruiting bump from beating a mediocre 6-6 Maryland team? Or NC St for beating Vandy? How does that compare to the potential recruiting bump from beating an actual team with a pulse such as Pitt? What is more helpful for recruiting, our exciting Outback Bowl loss to Auburn, or a theoretical win over a 6-6 Ohio Bobcats team in Detroit?

So I'll just say it one last time then leave this alone - winning a bowl game in itself doesn't mean much, no one cares if you beat a crappy or mediocre team. What matters is if you beat (or put in a strong losing performance) against a good team, to follow up a strong regular season.

Cheers!

 

[DarthCat]

1) To your point, regarding the "comprehensive list of teams that beat 7-5 or 6-6 (or 5-7) non P5 opponents in bowl games"
- New Mexico (over UTSA)
- Arkansas St (over UCF)
- Southern Miss (over ULL)
- Tulsa (over CMich)
- Idaho (over Co St)
- Old Dominion (over EMU)
- Miss St (over Miami OH)
- Army (over N Texas)
- Air Force (over S Alabama)

Is there any team here, winning or losing, besides Miss State that is even a P5 team? How much hype or positive preseason press do these teams ever get? And being that Mississippi State was in the playoff discussion just two years ago, and before 2012 held the longest current streak for most consecutive bowl wins, their situation and the perception uptick they'd receive after beating a 6-6 MAC team is far different than our situation.

2) Next, to your point, regarding the "comprehensive list of teams that beat 7-5 or 6-6 (or 5-7) P5 opponents in bowl games:
- Boston College (over MD)
- NC St (over Vandy)
- #19 Utah (over Indiana)
- #22 Va Tech (over 7-5! Arkansas)
- #25 USF (over S Carolina)
- Georgia (over TCU)
- Ga Tech (over 7-5! Kentucky)

I don't have their bowl histories handy to know how these wins rate in their postseason histories. Nor do I know how these wins are affecting their perception and 2017 outlook as I don't know the players they are losing next year, coaches who have left their programs, or any other factors that go into a season outlook.

3) Finally, my "point that bowl wins lead to offseason hype is not true either"?

We were 6-6, and had to beat an awful Illinois team to even make a bowl. We were largely written off a guaranteed loss in most, if not all, pre bowl game predictions. During the entire month up to the bowl game, I heard exactly nothing about our tantalizing prospects for next season. In fact, the only real press going into next season re: NU was if our if our 'stubborn' HC would have the guts to fire under performing assistants. I still heard about our putrid bowl history, about how we'd now only won "one bowl game since 1949" and about how our players were "just happy to be there".

Now somehow, despite all this, we are now a 'dark horse' to win the BT West and are seeing positive press on a number of fronts that simply didn't exist for us this season. So you don't think the Pinstripe Bowl win led to this? You believe that had we finished 6-7, the press and outlooks we are seeing for NU would be just as rosy right now?

As for what would have happened had Pitt been only 6-6 or 7-5, I have no idea. Neither do you. But my point is that after a bowl win, I hear nothing about the record of the opponent played, the competitiveness of the game, the obstacles overcome, etc. Nobody talked about our taking heavily favored Missouri and Auburn into overtime in the '08 and '09 seasons in discussions about NU the following years, only that we hadn't won a bowl game since 1949. I maintain, all that is remembered about a bowl is the W or the L. And that is why my stance is that with the exception of making the Rose Bowl or CFP, ANY bowl win, against ANY opponent is preferable to losing in any other bowl game to any other opponent, and that those wins can launch a disappointing season into a very favorable outlook.