It is possible to see the home attendance stats for all division 1 programs somewhere? I am curious as to what is happening at Duke and, especially, Stanford.
Some "rough" numbers I have heard. Please let me know where I am off or wrong:
NU Undergraduates: 8,200
Percentage of NU Student Body from Chicago Area: 20%
NU Graduates from the Chicago Area graduating each year: 8,200 x .25 x .20 = 410
In my own experience, of all the people I graduated with from my fraternity, almost all of them went back to from where they came. For every one who stayed 5 years after graduating, and was from outside Chicago, another one from Chicago left the area for opportunities elsewhere.
Using my percentages, and assuming that 1) 100% of the 410 NU alumni coming out each year become regular game attendees, and 2) that each brings a date, that's 820 new additions added to the attendance figures each year. At that rate, in 50 years, we still wouldn't have enough alumni coming out and living in the Chicago area to sell out the stadium.
Even if you were to change my percentages to 40% from Chicago area, that's still only 820 graduates added to the pool each year and 1,640 added in to account for their dates. In this case, it's still almost 30 years to have enough grads coming out and living around Chicago to fill up the stadium. Again, this is 100% graduate participation.
Compare this to say, Iowa.
Iowa Undergraduates: 21,000
Percentage of Iowa Student Body from Iowa Area: 70%
Iowa Graduates from Iowa graduating each year: 21,000 x .25 x .70 = 3,675
Again, if they bring dates, that's 7,350 people added to the pool each year. That's less than 10 years to churn out new alumni to completely fill the place.
These numbers don't even take into consideration that as a 'state school', Iowa plays to and draws fans from their entire state population, as do all state schools, regardless whether the fan went there or not.
If this kind of logic holds true, I would fully expect to see that despite their success, Stanford, Vanderbilt and Duke all struggling to sell out.
Some "rough" numbers I have heard. Please let me know where I am off or wrong:
NU Undergraduates: 8,200
Percentage of NU Student Body from Chicago Area: 20%
NU Graduates from the Chicago Area graduating each year: 8,200 x .25 x .20 = 410
In my own experience, of all the people I graduated with from my fraternity, almost all of them went back to from where they came. For every one who stayed 5 years after graduating, and was from outside Chicago, another one from Chicago left the area for opportunities elsewhere.
Using my percentages, and assuming that 1) 100% of the 410 NU alumni coming out each year become regular game attendees, and 2) that each brings a date, that's 820 new additions added to the attendance figures each year. At that rate, in 50 years, we still wouldn't have enough alumni coming out and living in the Chicago area to sell out the stadium.
Even if you were to change my percentages to 40% from Chicago area, that's still only 820 graduates added to the pool each year and 1,640 added in to account for their dates. In this case, it's still almost 30 years to have enough grads coming out and living around Chicago to fill up the stadium. Again, this is 100% graduate participation.
Compare this to say, Iowa.
Iowa Undergraduates: 21,000
Percentage of Iowa Student Body from Iowa Area: 70%
Iowa Graduates from Iowa graduating each year: 21,000 x .25 x .70 = 3,675
Again, if they bring dates, that's 7,350 people added to the pool each year. That's less than 10 years to churn out new alumni to completely fill the place.
These numbers don't even take into consideration that as a 'state school', Iowa plays to and draws fans from their entire state population, as do all state schools, regardless whether the fan went there or not.
If this kind of logic holds true, I would fully expect to see that despite their success, Stanford, Vanderbilt and Duke all struggling to sell out.
