B1G expectations

[Purple Pile Driver]

What would you think is a reasonable expectation for this year in the B1G?

I don’t think I have seen a pundit put us above 14th?

I think about 10-10 is par. So we’ll do better than expected as long as Barney is his normal self. 12 would be great and 8 or less would be disappointing!

 

[Hungry Jack]

Thinking 10 wins. We get Rutgers, UCLA and IU at home, which helps.

 

[EagerFan]

I'd feel more confident if Brooks were already 100%. I think we're in the 7 to 12 wins range because injuries and I'd be pretty happy with 10 wins.

 

[macarthur31]

What would you think is a reasonable expectation for this year in the B1G?

I don’t think I have seen a pundit put us above 14th?

I think about 10-10 is par. So we’ll do better than expected as long as Barney is his normal self. 12 would be great and 8 or less would be disappointing!

Andy Katz has NU at 11th, so there's one counterexample. kenpom projects 9-11 right now. I'll jump in at 10-10, and I'm a bit more optimistic than most.

 

[wocka]

Most fans' analysis on NU is usually pretty lazy, most takes I've seen are "Boo was the whole team last year and now he's gone". If any other B1G program was returning the most minutes in the conference and had a preseason 1st team player they'd be given way more respect. I think most analytics have us in the "giant group of likely bubble teams ranked in the 40s" which seems fair. The 2022-3 team was great defensively and below average offensively, and last year was great offensively and below average defensively. The key for this year's team is probably hitting the middle on both of those (I think we have more scoring options than the 22/23 team, but no one B1G Defensive Player of the Year caliber like Audige was).

 

[macarthur31]

Most fans' analysis on NU is usually pretty lazy, most takes I've seen are "Boo was the whole team last year and now he's gone". If any other B1G program was returning the most minutes in the conference and had a preseason 1st team player they'd be given way more respect. I think most analytics have us in the "giant group of likely bubble teams ranked in the 40s" which seems fair. The 2022-3 team was great defensively and below average offensively, and last year was great offensively and below average defensively. The key for this year's team is probably hitting the middle on both of those (I think we have more scoring options than the 22/23 team, but no one B1G Defensive Player of the Year caliber like Audige was).

I anticipate that '25 is gonna be more like '23 in that they build off their defense (Lowery for Asst COY?) - You've got a legit rim protector like Nicholson, and a strong wing defender like Barnhizer as well as an athletic bench who can keep the energy up (Smith, Mullins). Don't know if it'll be as great as '23, but could get there. However, the offense will be a work in progress and doesn't project as great as '24, which was the best offense in the Collins era: kenpom adjusted efficiency was 113.8 pts per 100 possessions in B1G. For perspective, the First dance '17 squad was 103.0, and the 2023 tourney team was 104.6. Best case scenario for '25 feels like that's where we're gonna end up, so we gotta make hay on the defensive end.

 

[NJCat]

Most fans' analysis on NU is usually pretty lazy, most takes I've seen are "Boo was the whole team last year and now he's gone". If any other B1G program was returning the most minutes in the conference and had a preseason 1st team player they'd be given way more respect. I think most analytics have us in the "giant group of likely bubble teams ranked in the 40s" which seems fair. The 2022-3 team was great defensively and below average offensively, and last year was great offensively and below average defensively. The key for this year's team is probably hitting the middle on both of those (I think we have more scoring options than the 22/23 team, but no one B1G Defensive Player of the Year caliber like Audige was).

You make good points. I'm in the camp of Boo was special and NU will miss him greatly. He was the only player who could create his own shots. No one on the current roster seems capable of doing that. Shot takers/makers are crucial in close games, and NU will need to play great defense this season to have a chance to win 9 or 10 B1G games.

 

[wocka]

You make good points. I'm in the camp of Boo was special and NU will miss him greatly. He was the only player who could create his own shots. No one on the current roster seems capable of doing that. Shot takers/makers are crucial in close games, and NU will need to play great defense this season to have a chance to win 9 or 10 B1G games.

Boo was special - sturdy as the lead guard, shot ungodly from 3 in B1G play. And as another commenter said last year was CCC's best offensive team by far and I don't think anyone is going to argue that we will be as good at that this year. But there are ways you can improve off last year's team, one of which just being roster construction - the first good chunk of the season when we were rolling out a four guard + Nicholson still clearly nursing an injury - was rated awfully defensively, and even though Berry is a really good defender we actually improved defensively when he was out I think in large part that a guy five inches taller than him became his replacement in the starting lineup.

 

[jensberg]

Andy Katz has NU at 11th, so there's one counterexample. kenpom projects 9-11 right now. I'll jump in at 10-10, and I'm a bit more optimistic than most.

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If Brooks is recently healthy and doesn't miss too much of the season I think we get 10 wins if he does then we won't

 

[SmellyCat]

I worry most about three-point shooting. Boo was fantastic, Langborg was clutch, and maybe Berry will have to work harder to get open shots this year without Boo. I just hope improvement by Barnhizer, Martinelli, and Hunger, along with the addition of Windham and Leach, gets NU close enough that we won't feel it.

 

[macarthur31]

I worry most about three-point shooting. Boo was fantastic, Langborg was clutch, and maybe Berry will have to work harder to get open shots this year without Boo. I just hope improvement by Barnhizer, Martinelli, and Hunger, along with the addition of Windham and Leach, gets NU close enough that we won't feel it.

Cats were the only team in B1G to have 3 guys average 40%+ from 3. In the history of the league.

So, yeah, safe bet to say we probably won't get there this year. What would work? Probably 35%+ - but would need at least 3 guys to average that to space the floor enough.