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Balcony view of the B1G w/kenpom goggles

macarthur31

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Nov 10, 2006
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Before we headed into the turkey tourneys, I thought to take a look at the B1G from the balcony view with kenpom goggles:

Teamkp ratingOverall RecordNet RatingBest WinWorst LossNon Con SOS
Purdue155-1+22.10 Alabama, kp10@Marquette, kp12+3.81
OSU184-1+21.67Texas, kp27 (Neutral)@TX A&M, kp19-0.06
UCLA225-1+20.20Idaho St, kp235New Mexico, kp53 (Neutral)-8.91
Wisconsin267-0+19.30Pitt, kp17 (Neutral)None+1.42
Michigan284-1+19.13TCU, kp60Wake Forest, kp97 (Semi-Away)-3.03
Illinois294-1+18.79Oakland, kp226Alabama, kp10 (Semi-Away)-11.68
Maryland475-1+17.95Villanova, kp63 (Neutral)Marquette, kp12-9.91
Oregon335-0+17.91@Oregon St, kp100None-3.73
PSU355-0+17.61Purdue Fort Wayne, kp119None-10.92
Indiana364-0+17.21South Carolina, kp79None-8.12
MSU444-1+15.73Samford, kp136Kansas, kp9 (Neutral)-7.12
Iowa465-1+15.37Washington St., kp89 (Semi-Home)Utah St., kp45 (Neutral)-6.54
Nebraska504-1+14.63@Creighton, kp30St. Mary's, kp42 (Neutral)-2.16
Northwestern615-1+12.53Montana St., kp167Dayton, kp38 (Away)-7.91
Rutgers794-1+10.08St. Peters, kp202Kennesaw St, kp160 (Away)-8.98
Minnesota834-1+9.63Yale, kp98North Texas, kp73-6.57
USC854-1+9.25Chattanooga, kp172Cal, kp124-7.76
Washington864-1+8.87UMass Lowell, kp126@Nevada, kp34-1.71

Quick rundown of meanings:
  • kp rating: kenpom rating
  • Net Rating: the difference between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Neutral vs. Semi-Away, Semi-Home: kenpom differentiates a "neutral" game when it seems more closer to one of the teams. For example, when Iowa played Wazzu, it was in Moline, IL - which is considered "Semi-Home" for the Hawkeyes given the proximity of the Quad Cities. (Conversely, that's considered Semi-Away for the Cougs.)
  • Non Con SOS: Non Conference Strength of Schedule. kenpom calculates strength of schedule as what represents the strength of team that would be expected to win half its games against this team's schedule.
Overall, the B1G is considered the 3rd toughest per kenpom Conference rankings with a +16.09 Net Rating, (behind SEC +18.55 and XII +16.99, but ahead of Big East +14.15). He determines this by the expected Net Rating of a team that projects to go .500 in conference play.


Quickish takes:
  • Best B1G win so far (tie) : Purdue over 'Bama, Wisconsin over Pitt. Tie because despite slight difference in ranking, Bucky did theirs away from home.
  • Worst B1G loss: USC losing at home to Cal. While Kennesaw St was a worse kp rated team, that's still a road game.
  • NU has a +12.53 Net Rating, but at this point it projects a +16.09 to get to 10 wins:
    • Offense: Currently 109.0 - Can this team get closer to the '24 edition (115.9), or is this '23 redux (109.9)
    • Defense: Currently 96.5 - by season's end the elite '23 team was 94.3/22nd in D1. Hard to imagine this team improving during the rugged B1G season. That '23 team gave up 102.6 in to B1G opponents, which was 3rd best in the Collins era. The First Dance squad only surrendered 100.5.
 
Ty had an offensive rating last year of 115.8 and almost went 50-40-90 shooting. A really fantastic year until the injury and I think we’d have made the Sweet 16 with him (mainly by earning a better seed and avoiding UConn). This year so far he’s at an 82.3 ORtg and shooting 19% on 2s. It seems our entire season may ride on whether he can play himself into shape.
 
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Great chart! Do you think you'll provide updates throughout the year?
Heh, perhaps if I'm feeling work avoidance. But seriously, I may do another installment after we complete our slate of noncons in December, and before our 3rd B1G game (vs. PSU)
 
It seems our entire season may ride on whether he can play himself into shape.
I think that is a fair assumption. I'm still hoping for a little more offense from Mullins, who I watched drill some 3s at a practice last year from the corner. He had one go in and out Friday night. Also hoping for a little more scoring from KJ, but Berry is definitely a key.
 
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