Bid Thieves, March 6

[SmellyCat]

I believe NU is safely in and doesn't have to worry about bid thieves. In fact, I believe NU is over the Bid Thief Line, meaning any bid thieves aren't even going to move them down at all. However, if all hell breaks loose, someone has to drop, and there are those who worry about such things, so I thought I'd offer the following for today's games only:

AEC - probably a one-bid conference, but there's always the chance Vermont gets an at-large, so root for them to beat New Hampshire in the semis.

CAA - some have Wilmington as an at-large bubble candidate, so root for them in the championship over Charleston.

MAAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Championship tonight: Iona vs. Siena

MAC - one-bid conference. For a time Akron was probably on the bubble, but this tourney really doesn't matter.

MEAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Just root for your favorite.

Southern - East Tennessee vs. Greensboro for the championship. A few people like ETSU as a bubble team, but they're probably too far down. Just to be on the safe side, go ETSU.

Summit - No bubble teams here. One-bid conference.

WCC - Out of all the games today, here's the highest potential for bid thieves, as both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are locks to make the NCAAs. Gonzaga has Santa Clara and St. Mary's has BYU. Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's tonight.

 

[NURoseBowl]

I believe NU is safely in and doesn't have to worry about bid thieves. In fact, I believe NU is over the Bid Thief Line, meaning any bid thieves aren't even going to move them down at all. However, if all hell breaks loose, someone has to drop, and there are those who worry about such things, so I thought I'd offer the following for today's games only:

AEC - probably a one-bid conference, but there's always the chance Vermont gets an at-large, so root for them to beat New Hampshire in the semis.

CAA - some have Wilmington as an at-large bubble candidate, so root for them in the championship over Charleston.

MAAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Championship tonight: Iona vs. Siena

MAC - one-bid conference. For a time Akron was probably on the bubble, but this tourney really doesn't matter.

MEAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Just root for your favorite.

Southern - East Tennessee vs. Greensboro for the championship. A few people like ETSU as a bubble team, but they're probably too far down. Just to be on the safe side, go ETSU.

Summit - No bubble teams here. One-bid conference.

WCC - Out of all the games today, here's the highest potential for bid thieves, as both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are locks to make the NCAAs. Gonzaga has Santa Clara and St. Mary's has BYU. Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's tonight.

How about in the Valley . . . does Illinois State have a shot at an at-large bid?

 

[Kelly_32]

How about in the Valley . . . does Illinois State have a shot at an at-large bid?

Not after yesterday.

 

[SmellyCat]

Illinois State could get in if there really aren't any bid thieves, but they're going to be sweating it out big time. They're already right about on the cut line, and they don't have any more ground they can gain. I would have to say they're going to miss. If they'd beaten WSU, I'd feel better about the Shockers making it as an at-large.

 

[ricko654321]

Illinois State could get in if there really aren't any bid thieves, but they're going to be sweating it out big time. They're already right about on the cut line, and they don't have any more ground they can gain. I would have to say they're going to miss. If they'd beaten WSU, I'd feel better about the Shockers making it as an at-large.

Honestly I think Illinois St should get in as an at large over one of these mediocre 9-9 power conference teams. I know they didn't have many tough opponents, but part of the reason for that is the major conference teams often are unwilling to schedule against these dangerous teams. With the shift to 18 game conference schedules, a lot of the teams schedule a few headline opponents, then the rest cupcakes. They are unhappy with the risk reward of playing a decent non-name team against the perception hit of losing to them.

Illinois St went 17-1 in conference, splitting 2 games against Wichita St, then got to their conference final and lost to them a second time. I'll admit their OOC resume is less impressive than we would like, but I bet they would have been willing to play more challenging teams if anyone would schedule against them. But seeing that teams like Illinois (who went 8-10 in conference? and wasn't particularly good OOC?) and some of the 8-10 ACC teams are ahead of them I think is unfortunate.

 

[ricko654321]

I believe NU is safely in and doesn't have to worry about bid thieves. In fact, I believe NU is over the Bid Thief Line, meaning any bid thieves aren't even going to move them down at all. However, if all hell breaks loose, someone has to drop, and there are those who worry about such things, so I thought I'd offer the following for today's games only:

AEC - probably a one-bid conference, but there's always the chance Vermont gets an at-large, so root for them to beat New Hampshire in the semis.

CAA - some have Wilmington as an at-large bubble candidate, so root for them in the championship over Charleston.

MAAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Championship tonight: Iona vs. Siena

MAC - one-bid conference. For a time Akron was probably on the bubble, but this tourney really doesn't matter.

MEAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Just root for your favorite.

Southern - East Tennessee vs. Greensboro for the championship. A few people like ETSU as a bubble team, but they're probably too far down. Just to be on the safe side, go ETSU.

Summit - No bubble teams here. One-bid conference.

WCC - Out of all the games today, here's the highest potential for bid thieves, as both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are locks to make the NCAAs. Gonzaga has Santa Clara and St. Mary's has BYU. Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's tonight.

and btw -- thanks for listing these all out and tracking them. even if we aren't on the bubble, it was a good resource for all the random conf tourney games going on today for me. there's too many to keep track of haha.

 

[SmellyCat]

My pleasure. I love big dorky spreadsheets, and I have one with all of the active and/or bubble teams on it. I think there are still 260 or so teams fighting for the 68 spots, but as non-bubble, non-lock teams lose in their conference tournaments, I'm removing them the list, so that by the time we get to Sunday, there are maybe 80 teams left to fill out the brackets. It gets really fun Wednesday and Thursday, especially with me making a judgment call on who can be removed. Can't wait.

 

[hdhntr1]

I believe NU is safely in and doesn't have to worry about bid thieves. In fact, I believe NU is over the Bid Thief Line, meaning any bid thieves aren't even going to move them down at all. However, if all hell breaks loose, someone has to drop, and there are those who worry about such things, so I thought I'd offer the following for today's games only:

AEC - probably a one-bid conference, but there's always the chance Vermont gets an at-large, so root for them to beat New Hampshire in the semis.

CAA - some have Wilmington as an at-large bubble candidate, so root for them in the championship over Charleston.

MAAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Championship tonight: Iona vs. Siena

MAC - one-bid conference. For a time Akron was probably on the bubble, but this tourney really doesn't matter.

MEAC - Definitely a one-bid conference. Just root for your favorite.

Southern - East Tennessee vs. Greensboro for the championship. A few people like ETSU as a bubble team, but they're probably too far down. Just to be on the safe side, go ETSU.

Summit - No bubble teams here. One-bid conference.

WCC - Out of all the games today, here's the highest potential for bid thieves, as both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are locks to make the NCAAs. Gonzaga has Santa Clara and St. Mary's has BYU. Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary's tonight.

About the only danger for us is if Rutgers beats OSU and then we do not make it past them. It might give us a bad loss that we currently do not have. Of course, if they were to beat OSU and then us, they would have three wins in a row to finish the season and likely not still be a sub 100 team.

 

[ricko654321]

My pleasure. I love big dorky spreadsheets, and I have one with all of the active and/or bubble teams on it. I think there are still 260 or so teams fighting for the 68 spots, but as non-bubble, non-lock teams lose in their conference tournaments, I'm removing them the list, so that by the time we get to Sunday, there are maybe 80 teams left to fill out the brackets. It gets really fun Wednesday and Thursday, especially with me making a judgment call on who can be removed. Can't wait.

Haha nice. Sounds like a more complicated version of the B1G conference schedule spreadsheet I made and have updated periodically, cause one night I was curious about which team has had the easiest draw of the conference schedule.

(OT, but incidentally the answer was us, Wisconsin, and Maryland... which not coincidentally is every team that got to play Rutgers twice, while not also having to play Purdue twice... the rest of the pack largely evened itself out)

 

[Sec.112]

One of the brackets guys says ISU is out. OTOH, they have a 30 RPI.

The committee as well as the NCAA really needs to start reconsidering how to handle mid-majors like this. They really get screwed on scheduling and bids.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I believe NU is safely in and doesn't have to worry about bid thieves. In fact, I believe NU is over the Bid Thief Line, meaning any bid thieves aren't even going to move them down at all. However, if all hell breaks loose, someone has to drop, and there are those who worry about such things, so I thought I'd offer the following for today's games only:

Good work. But I wonder why don't you mention major conferences, where there is a possibility of bid theft (possibly double at the same conference!).

Any conference that currently has at least one team expected to make the T regardless of its performance in its own conference-T is a potential scenario for bid theft. That would happen if the team(s) expected to make the NCAA cut (on the strength of their overall record(s)) fail(s) to win the conference T. In that case, the tournament winner (presumably discarded already for AL bid consideration) ends up getting in as an AQ. AND the other conference teams "already in" (based on overall record(s)) STILL GET IN. That is, the conference ends up taking one more spot than most "bracketologists" expect, thereby complicating the path to the NCAA's for teams like NU, with strong but by no means overwhelming resumes.

In mayor conferences with multiple teams in the general vicinity of the "cut off" line there is a possibility of DUAL bid theft. This may occur when both T-finalists are teams that were presumably "discarded" for AL bids, and the losing finalist ends up strengthening its resume (thanks to its run) to the point that BOTH finalists end up "stealing bids". The odds aren't high, but it is certainly possible.

As an example, suppose that the BTT finalists are OSU and Illy. Currently both are expected to be left out of the NCAA's. However, if Illy loses the BTT final (after beating Minny and B1G champ Purdue) they could potentially get a bid thanks to their BTT run (and OSU as well, as the BTT winner). Something similar could happen at other major conferences.

P.S. I hope the above text is acceptable. I tried to post something similar elsewhere but my message disappeared, having apparently touched a taboo.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Swiper, no swiping!

 

[SmellyCat]

Good work. But I wonder why don't you mention major conferences, where there is a possibility of bid theft (possibly double at the same conference!).

Yeah, I only included games today. There are so many games this week and potential thieves, I thought it would be helpful to cut through the daily mess to boil it down to rooting interests per day. Hopefully I can do this every day this week.

I agree that two could come out of the Big 10 - Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana are all on the outside looking in, but it's possible that any can get in just by making the final (though Illinois probably has the best chance there). Indiana and Iowa face each other first, so there's no way both can make it, but maybe one of them can make it by losing to Illinois in the final.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Yeah, I only included games today. There are so many games this week and potential thieves, I thought it would be helpful to cut through the daily mess to boil it down to rooting interests per day.

Yes, that makes sense!

I agree that two could come out of the Big 10 - Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana are all on the outside looking in, but it's possible that any can get in just by making the final (though Illinois probably has the best chance there).

Right. In such scenario, an obvious question is whether the committee would just award the B1G two additonal bids (over what was expected, to accommodate the 2 unexpected teams) or whether they'd just draw a "line in the sand" at 6-7 B1G teams. This would be worrisome to NU, since five B1G teams finished the reg. season higher than NU in the conference standings. If 2 teams like OSU and Illy were to get bids thanks to the BTT, then at least 8 B1G teams would need to be in the tournament in order for NU to get in. Possible, of course, but not certain.

 

[SmellyCat]

I think Michigan would lose out there before NU. Michigan would've lost in the first round to Illinois.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I think Michigan would lose out there before NU. Michigan would've lost in the first round to Illinois.

But Mich (as IOA) is ALREADY lower than NU in the B1G standings. MSU is higher, though. In the above scenario, NU would have lost its first BTT to OSU, anyhow.

 

[hdhntr1]

But Mich (as IOA) is ALREADY lower than NU in the B1G standings. MSU is higher, though. In the above scenario, NU would have lost its first BTT to OSU, anyhow.

Likely the only real problem for NU is if RUT beats OSU and then us as it might mean bad loss but then RUT would have won 3 in a row and not be such a bad loss..

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Likely the only real problem for NU is if RUT beats OSU and then us as it might mean bad loss but then RUT would have won 3 in a row and not be such a bad loss..

I agree in terms of "eye test" (and being a BIG homer), but Rutgers won't be able to get their RPI inside the top 100 (currently #170). Falling to the Scarlet Knights would be viewed by the committee as a "bad loss". Also, it would be occurring at the worst possible time.

Fortunately, that defeat would be the only such stain on the resume. It looks like Indiana will be permanently residing inside the top 100 (#81) after their win at Ohio State on Saturday.

Had the 'Cats racked up multiple "bad losses", things may have started to get a bit dicey.