Wrote something similar a year ago, so I'm going to cut and paste that and make changes based on 2024 situation.
The loss hurt many of us badly, but my guess is it didn't hurt NU at all. They lost in a close game on the road against a tourney team. This is not like losing to Merrimack or Chicago State.
Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 26 teams that are "on the bubble." That is, they *could* get in if they don't win their conference tournament. Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.
The following 25 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 9th, 10th, or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 13 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only 12 deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.
NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS as the top-ranked ninth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't drop too much at this late date, and they're not going to drop 20 spots if they lose to Minnesota.
9 seeds - TCU, Oklahoma, Mississippi St.
10 seeds - Nebraska, Michigan St., Florida Atlantic, Villanova
11 seeds - Virginia, St. John's, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Indiana St.
12 seed - Princeton
On the outside: Colorado, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, James Madison, Iowa, Providence, Kansas St., Syracuse
Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of 12 gets hot and wins their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that Virginia lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU. If all 12 somehow make it (which is probably impossible since many share a conference), NU still right now has a buffer between them.
Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? AAC is the most obvious choice, as FAU is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Drake makes a run in the MVC, would they get an invite in addition to Indiana State, or at the expense of them?
So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is a 10 seed at worst, with an eight or nine still reasonable.
The loss hurt many of us badly, but my guess is it didn't hurt NU at all. They lost in a close game on the road against a tourney team. This is not like losing to Merrimack or Chicago State.
Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 26 teams that are "on the bubble." That is, they *could* get in if they don't win their conference tournament. Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.
The following 25 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 9th, 10th, or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 13 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only 12 deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.
NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS as the top-ranked ninth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't drop too much at this late date, and they're not going to drop 20 spots if they lose to Minnesota.
9 seeds - TCU, Oklahoma, Mississippi St.
10 seeds - Nebraska, Michigan St., Florida Atlantic, Villanova
11 seeds - Virginia, St. John's, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Indiana St.
12 seed - Princeton
On the outside: Colorado, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, James Madison, Iowa, Providence, Kansas St., Syracuse
Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of 12 gets hot and wins their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that Virginia lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU. If all 12 somehow make it (which is probably impossible since many share a conference), NU still right now has a buffer between them.
Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? AAC is the most obvious choice, as FAU is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Drake makes a run in the MVC, would they get an invite in addition to Indiana State, or at the expense of them?
So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is a 10 seed at worst, with an eight or nine still reasonable.
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