Can we still make the NIT?
- Thread starter MysticCat
- Start date
Don't be daft. If the season ended tonight, we'd be 15-5 and we'd still be headed to the post season. The NCAA's are not out of reach, though that PSU game hurt a ton and we have a lot of work to do. If we go on a run like we did the last couple of seasons, anything is possible.
Losing in OT to a top 10 ranked team on the road is not reason to go to pieces.
Losing in OT to a top 10 ranked team on the road is not reason to go to pieces.
Yes, but remember that the entire point of Mystic's presence on this board is to celebrate any perceived failures by Collins and to downplay any perceived successes. Collins obviously is still a work in progress, as is the program that he leads, but I think most reasonable people would find both positives and negatives to his time here. Mystic (at least his internet persona) is not a reasonable person.
RPI 125 teams don't make the ncaa or nit without winning their conference or their tourney.
And we have.... Currently ........Zero quality wins all year.
Should we shell out for the cbi to make ourselves feel better?
And we have.... Currently ........Zero quality wins all year.
Should we shell out for the cbi to make ourselves feel better?
As I assume you know, it's idiotic to speculate on whether we can make the NIT at this point in the season. Let's see how the rest of the season progresses, including the B1G tournament. If Olah doesn't get healthy and Demps doesn't get hot, I think we will struggle to beat the better teams and to consistently beat the lower-tier teams. The fact that we are even having this discussion when 2 of our top 5 players are hurt or not contributing is encouraging. We just lost to a top 10 team on the road in overtime. It's hard for me to get too down. The program is in a much better place than it has been since the 60"s. Olah went down and we replaced him with our best center since Esch. Falzon is getting better. Mac is a top-tier player. We are out-rebounding teams for the first time that I can remember. We need a consistent scorer. Hopefully, between Law and the two freshmen, we can find one. We will continue to be competitive in the conference this year and hopefully will pull out a couple of big wins with some hot shooting.
Clarificationcat,
Can I get some clarification?
It's idiotic, or encouraging? Or both? Neither?
You don't seem to know.
Please clarify.
I have always hated all those idiotic posts 20 games in when people speculate about the postseason. Always seemed idiotic to hundreds of people since the Internet began.
Can I get some clarification?
It's idiotic, or encouraging? Or both? Neither?
You don't seem to know.
Please clarify.
I have always hated all those idiotic posts 20 games in when people speculate about the postseason. Always seemed idiotic to hundreds of people since the Internet began.
Let me try again.
As I stated above, I think, it is idiotic to speculate on the NIT at this point in the season. I D I O T I C. I get speculating on the NCAA tournament 20 games into the season. It's the only tournament that matters and we all have a pretty clear understanding of what it would take to get there. Do you even know what the NIT uses for criteria? And whether we make it or not has nothing to do with being encouraged about the team. I know it's crazy but I can actually separate my enthusiasm for the team from our most recent loss or victory. Based on what I have seen this year and from Law last year (and based on Collins saying that Law was the most improved player in the fall), I think that BMac, Law, Falzon and Pardon form the nucleus of a good team. Supplement them with another scorer and you will have a very good team, one which is capable of making the NCAA tournament. We got zero points from Olah today (on 0-5 shooting) and Tre shot 3-14 and was 0 for 6 from 3-point range. We still took Maryland into overtime. On any given night, our 8th or 9th player might be one of our best players. We are adding 3 talented freshmen and I would be shocked if one is not a significant contributor next year. Lots of reasons to be encouraged. I could care less about the NIT.
I thought Olah and Demps would be our two best players this year. I guess I was wrong. We may in fact have to graduate all of the Carmody players before we can really see what the Collins era looks like. Sanjay is a contributor for sure, but he is fairly one dimensional. Our best players right now if you ask me are BMac, Falzon and Pardon. Hopefully, Law comes back strong, and we add a couple more difference makers. We are getting there. I think we still have a shot this year, but if not this one, I like our chances next, especially with the emergence of Pardon.
If you could care less about the NIT, why don't you? I know you can do it!
I think on certain days, they are the best players on the team. Unfortunately, they are both streaky. Demps has had some amazing moments throughout his career and I thought he played more consistently last year. Prolonged shooting slumps happen, though, and he's not big enough or athletic enough to score consistently when his outside shot is not falling. I also thought he used to take more pull-up 15-18 foot jumpers when he was really rolling, which opened up driving lanes. Everyone say he works so hard, so I really hope he can finish his senior year playing well. I thought Olah was starting to play well before his injury. Brian James was very blunt at halftime yesterday. He said that Alex needed to play better. He didn't cut him any slack for the injury. He deserves to finish his career on a high note as well.
I think next year's team should be able to play at a high level on a more consistent basis. Falzon is a streaky shooter but I hope that he can add to his offensive game and still contribute when he's not shooting well from 3. He seems to be making some strides. BMac has been our most consistent player by far. Barring injury, I think Pardon will be consistently good. He seems to have a good feel for the game and he can score in double digits just on putbacks and dives to the basket on pick and rolls. Law should be able to rebound, defend and give us 8 to 10 points a game even when he's not hitting 3's. Sanjay always brings the effort but I would like to see his minutes reduced to 15 to 20 a game. Lindsey, Taphorn and Skelly can all contribute off the bench. We just need another guy to create his own shot. It looks like it's going to need to be Ash, one of next year's freshmen or a transfer, unless Lindsey becomes a lot more assertive. And we are going to need a little bit of good luck for a change.
"I could care less about the NIT"
That's fine.
Some of us, however, look forward to the rare opportunity to see NU hoops in postseason action. I get that your response was to a specific poster (an unpopular one at that), but speculating on the NIT at nearly the midpoint in BIG play isn't, as you put it, I D IO T I C.
There are plenty of those type of posts floating around. This isn't one if them, though. Speculating is one of primary functions of this board.
That's fine.
Some of us, however, look forward to the rare opportunity to see NU hoops in postseason action. I get that your response was to a specific poster (an unpopular one at that), but speculating on the NIT at nearly the midpoint in BIG play isn't, as you put it, I D IO T I C.
There are plenty of those type of posts floating around. This isn't one if them, though. Speculating is one of primary functions of this board.
I think the answer is yes, we still have a good shot. WE need about 5 more wins to get there. And there are plenty of opportunities for those wins.
I think NU will need to be 9-9 in Big 10 play to get an NIT bid, and still think they have a shot.
All we need is 5 more wins. That would give us a 20 win season and 8 wins in the BIG and with that, I think we are in,
Sadly, it may come down to beating PSU in State College and given NU's Big 10 record against the Lions.......
As someone else pointed out, I should have said I could not care less about the NIT. And, yes, the tone of the post was definitely in response to the poster. But I do think it's almost impossible to make NIT predictions at this point. We certainly have a chance but, like I said, I am not even sure what criteria they use other than giving any team that wins their regular season conference championship an automatic bid. I assume if we finish .500 or better in the conference we will be invited, but that will likely require winning the last couple games of the regular season.
To finish 9-9, NU will realistically need to beat Minny, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska, plus pull one upset over a top 6 Big 10 team. RU, @PSU and NE are the last 3 games so by definition NU will end the season on a winning streak to finish at 9-9. Lose to any of those teams and no post-season.
"We certainly have a chance but, like I said, I am not even sure what criteria they use other than giving any team that wins their regular season conference championship an automatic bid. I assume if we finish .500 or better in the conference we will be invited, but that will likely require winning the last couple games of the regular season."
I would agree that there are so many variables at this point that a in depth discussion is fairly pointless. I saved the data from my "NIT WATCH" post last year (props to Styre for corrections he made) and will hopefully be able to use it down the road. In the meantime, we can use general trends to make a prediction.
Gaudy win totals will net some teams NIT bids. Off the top of my head, I cannot recall a power 5 team being left out after notching 20 victories. At the very least, I'd say it's pretty rare. RPI is certainly important (so are conference champs, etc), but leaving out a BIG squad (even in a down year) after winning 20 games is a statement. The NIT doesn't really do statements. So my "way too soon" estimate for a potential bid would be no worse than:
20-13 (7-11; 1-1 BTT).
I would agree that there are so many variables at this point that a in depth discussion is fairly pointless. I saved the data from my "NIT WATCH" post last year (props to Styre for corrections he made) and will hopefully be able to use it down the road. In the meantime, we can use general trends to make a prediction.
Gaudy win totals will net some teams NIT bids. Off the top of my head, I cannot recall a power 5 team being left out after notching 20 victories. At the very least, I'd say it's pretty rare. RPI is certainly important (so are conference champs, etc), but leaving out a BIG squad (even in a down year) after winning 20 games is a statement. The NIT doesn't really do statements. So my "way too soon" estimate for a potential bid would be no worse than:
20-13 (7-11; 1-1 BTT).
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Getting to NIT signifies progress and getting back to the level attained in the BCCC era. First you crawl then you walk. Getting to the NIT would be noteworthy
I think he meant one-bid conferences, where the regular season champ is upset in the post-season tournament.
Yep. All regular season conference champions that do not win their conference tournaments (with the exception of the Ivy League, which does not have a conference tournament) are awarded automatic bids to the NIT. In practice, this only applies to smaller conferences, as (for example) the regular season champion of the Big Ten is going to get an automatic bid no matter what happens in the conference tournament. So if you're on the "NIT bubble," you want as much chalk as possible in the conference tournaments.
I think they actually all gets bids but the teams going to the NCAA tournament don't accept them. As with most things, I could be wrong, though.
I don't really see that. We won 7 or 8 conference games in the four years we went to the NIT under Carmody. We should be able to reach that level this year. Whether the NIT deems us invitation worthy seems kind of random (the more regular season champions that win their tournaments, the more openings). I think we crawl by developing our underclassmen and hopefully beating a couple of good conference teams this year to build confidence. I would be happy if we made the NIT (if the NCAA is not an option) but won't be sad if we don't. I don't think it's a recruiting edge. As long as we improve on last year and finish relatively strong, I think Collins still has a good story to tell.
When we had our streak of NIT appearances, we did not go 9-9. Why do you think it takes that now? I would think 8 would get us in. 9-9 generally (but not always) got invites to NCAA. 8-10 generally gets a BIG team to the NIT. In fact 7 BIG wins could get a team to the NIT. Just saying it does not require 9. NCAA does but not NIT
It marks getting back to the highest level attained by BC coached teams with better talent on the way. In that, it is noteworthy. Remember gnashing of teeth of people bemoaning the loss of BC because of the level we had gotten to and the potential danger of sliding back?
Weak OOC schedule. VaTech might end up being a pretty good road win, but that is the only OOC win of note. And only beating the bottom of the Big 10 doesn't help.
For example, in 2009-10 NU went just 7-11 in the conference, but beat #23 ND, ISU, @NCSU, and Stanford in OOC and #6 Purdue in the league, plus won 1 BTT game. They were actually ranked #25 in the country before starting Big 10 play. Of course, that team also managed to lose 2 games to Ed DeChelis and Penn State.....
This season is really not that different. Our RPI that season was 116. It's 111 this year. ISU, NCSU and Stanford were bad teams that year (all with losing records). DePaul, Missouri and Virginia Tech are probably their equals or better from an RPI perspective. We have no non-conference wins like Notre Dame but I am still hoping we can pull at least one upset and win a tournament game. We've managed to do it the past couple of years.
NCSU finished 20-16 that season, but the other two did indeed have losing records.
RPIs:
2010 NC State: 88
2010 Iowa State: 125
2010 Stanford: 160
2016 Virginia Tech: 109
2016 Missouri: 153
2016 DePaul: 165
In the recent past, have 8 BIG win teams not made it to the NIT? Just saying that while a 7 BIG win NU might not make it, I would think an 8 BIG win NU would.Weak OOC schedule. VaTech might end up being a pretty good road win, but that is the only OOC win of note. And only beating the bottom of the Big 10 doesn't help.
For example, in 2009-10 NU went just 7-11 in the conference, but beat #23 ND, ISU, @NCSU, and Stanford in OOC and #6 Purdue in the league, plus won 1 BTT game. They were actually ranked #25 in the country before starting Big 10 play. Of course, that team also managed to lose 2 games to Ed DeChelis and Penn State.....
Thanks. Sorry about that. They finished second to last in the ACC but still got invited to the NIT. Like I said, I am not sure what the NIT uses for criteria.
Just lol. Nice trolling. Won't take the bait. Don't you have a Patriot league coach to watch now?
Again, when was the last time a BIG team with at least 8 conference wins (and a winning overall record) did not make it to at least the NIT?In 2003/4, we were 9-9 in conference but we had an overall losing record. Get to at least 8 conference wins and I see us being in the NIT. We need 5 more.
