Can we still make the NIT?

[hoosboot]

Again, when was the last time a BIG team with at least 8 conference wins (and a winning overall record) did not make it to at least the NIT?In 2003/4, we were 9-9 in conference but we had an overall losing record. Get to at least 8 conference wins and I see us being in the NIT. We need 5 more.

That would be last year's Michigan Wolverines. Before that, Iowa got to 9 wins in 2007 and didn't reach the NIT. I've said this a million times, it's not how many wins we get this season...it's who we beat. If we get 20 wins, but our best win is against Virginia Tech, it's not likely we are going to the NIT. We have to get a win (or two) against one of the top half B1G teams down the stretch.

 

[hdhntr1]

That loss to MVSU (!!) probably was the killer that season......

Since any of the losses put us below 0.500, yes.

 

[NJCat83588]

Since any of the losses put us below 0.500, yes.

There are losses, and there are bad losses. Losing to MVSU is a bad loss..........

 

[MysticCat]

There are losses, and there are bad losses. Losing to MVSU is a bad loss..........

------------

I don't usually call losses to ncaa tournament teams "bad losses".

 

[hoosboot]

That would be last year's Michigan Wolverines. Before that, Iowa got to 9 wins in 2007 and didn't reach the NIT. I've said this a million times, it's not how many wins we get this season...it's who we beat. If we get 20 wins, but our best win is against Virginia Tech, it's not likely we are going to the NIT. We have to get a win (or two) against one of the top half B1G teams down the stretch.

Just making sure you saw this, hdhntr1. Gotta get a win on Thursday night.

 

[Styre]

There are losses, and there are bad losses. Losing to MVSU is a bad loss..........

I'm pretty sure they were RPI top 150 that year -- it's still (obviously) a bad home loss but it's not even in the same realm of bad as losing to them today would be.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

That would be last year's Michigan Wolverines. Before that, Iowa got to 9 wins in 2007 and didn't reach the NIT. I've said this a million times, it's not how many wins we get this season...it's who we beat. If we get 20 wins, but our best win is against Virginia Tech, it's not likely we are going to the NIT. We have to get a win (or two) against one of the top half B1G teams down the stretch.

Hoosboot, I totally get what you are saying here, but there comes a point when you rack up enough victories (you play the game to win, right?) that it would be hard for the NIT to turn you down, especially if the regular season mid major champs hold serve. Has a 20 win high major ever been left out of the modern NIT (I'd do the research, but need to get to work)?

With limited data at this time, I think it's reasonable to conclude 20 wins probably gets the 'Cats in.

 

[julescat]

but there comes a point when you rack up enough victories (you play the game to win, right?) that it would be hard for the NIT to turn you down, especially if the regular season mid major champs hold serve. Has a 20 win high major ever been left out of the modern NIT (I'd do the research, but need to get to work)?

With limited data at this time, I think it's reasonable to conclude 20 wins probably gets the 'Cats in.

Not this year. 20 wins for NU? Who cares with that crappy schedule.

 

[hdhntr1]

That would be last year's Michigan Wolverines. Before that, Iowa got to 9 wins in 2007 and didn't reach the NIT. I've said this a million times, it's not how many wins we get this season...it's who we beat. If we get 20 wins, but our best win is against Virginia Tech, it's not likely we are going to the NIT. We have to get a win (or two) against one of the top half B1G teams down the stretch.

That Mich team only won something like 16 games. That means they lost something like 7-8 OOC. Regardless of the quality of our OOC schedule, we lost but one and that was to a top ranked team. Just saying I feel 8 (which also means at least 20 wins) is the magic number.

 

[hoosboot]

That Mich team only won something like 16 games. That means they lost something like 7-8 OOC. Regardless of the quality of our OOC schedule, we lost but one and that was to a top ranked team. Just saying I feel 8 (which also means at least 20 wins) is the magic number.

Hoosboot, I totally get what you are saying here, but there comes a point when you rack up enough victories (you play the game to win, right?) that it would be hard for the NIT to turn you down, especially if the regular season mid major champs hold serve. Has a 20 win high major ever been left out of the modern NIT (I'd do the research, but need to get to work)?

With limited data at this time, I think it's reasonable to conclude 20 wins probably gets the 'Cats in.

Michigan won 17 games last year in the regular season while that Iowa team won 20.

I just think that you guys are going to be sorely disappointed if we hold serve against Minny, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebby, and Penn State (certainly no guarantee there anyway) and get to 20, but lose the other games against ranked teams. It obviously depends on how the regular season champ things plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we were left out with even an additional win against a bottom tier team in the B1G Tourney. 20-11/21-12 against our schedule is not particularly impressive because by my research we'd have one win (Wisconsin) against Top 100 competition. That makes our RPI and resume pretty meh. The Top 100 teams are who we are competing against for those bids, so our resume wouldn't do much to impress vs. most of the teams we are up against. And our best chance to get another one of those Top 100 wins is Thursday against MSU because it's our last home game against a Top 100 team. I hope we get it and close strong so that this is a moot point.

 

[willycat]

Michigan won 17 games last year in the regular season while that Iowa team won 20.

I just think that you guys are going to be sorely disappointed if we hold serve against Minny, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebby, and Penn State (certainly no guarantee there anyway) and get to 20, but lose the other games against ranked teams. It obviously depends on how the regular season champ things plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we were left out with even an additional win against a bottom tier team in the B1G Tourney. 20-11/21-12 against our schedule is not particularly impressive because by my research we'd have one win (Wisconsin) against Top 100 competition. That makes our RPI and resume pretty meh. The Top 100 teams are who we are competing against for those bids, so our resume wouldn't do much to impress vs. most of the teams we are up against. And our best chance to get another one of those Top 100 wins is Thursday against MSU because it's our last home game against a Top 100 team. I hope we get it and close strong so that this is a moot point.

Does anyone know how much the NIT values RPI ratings? I would think that 20 wins, especially if one is against MSU and then a win in the conference tournament gets NU an invite.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Michigan won 17 games last year in the regular season while that Iowa team won 20..

Iowa actually won 17 in 2006-07 (Alford's last year). Not correcting to be a pain, but rather to highlight the 20 win milestone. Going back 5 seasons, each of these teams won at least 20 games, were from a power conference, and had the worst RPI of any 20+ win team. All of them made the NIT.

2014-15: Texas A&M 20-11
2013-14: Clemson 20-12
2012-13: Arizona State 21-12
2011-12: Stanford 21-11*
2010-11: No applicable teams

*Stanford landed a #3 seed with an RPI of 96 from an extremely weak PAC 10/12. It should be noted that Iowa (while performing well in conference) got in with an RPI of 130 that same season. At time of this post, the 'Cats own an RPI of 102 (per ESPN).

At the very least, I think we can agree that NU getting bounced with 20 or 21 wins would mark a pretty rare occurrence.


IOWA 06-07

 

[hdhntr1]

Michigan won 17 games last year in the regular season while that Iowa team won 20.

I just think that you guys are going to be sorely disappointed if we hold serve against Minny, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebby, and Penn State (certainly no guarantee there anyway) and get to 20, but lose the other games against ranked teams. It obviously depends on how the regular season champ things plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we were left out with even an additional win against a bottom tier team in the B1G Tourney. 20-11/21-12 against our schedule is not particularly impressive because by my research we'd have one win (Wisconsin) against Top 100 competition. That makes our RPI and resume pretty meh. The Top 100 teams are who we are competing against for those bids, so our resume wouldn't do much to impress vs. most of the teams we are up against. And our best chance to get another one of those Top 100 wins is Thursday against MSU because it's our last home game against a Top 100 team. I hope we get it and close strong so that this is a moot point.

Michigan was 15-15 in the regular season and 1-1 in the BTT for a final record of 16-16 They lost 5 preseason OOC games including to such powerhouses as NJIT and Eastern Mich. They were also 2-7 in their last 9 conference games (3-8 in last 11). You don't get anywhere by having a weak finish. To get to 8 conference wins, we need to go 5-5 in last10 games or with your assumption of only beating weak opponents, we would have to go 5-3 in last 8. Just saying that the Michigan example is a poor one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_Michigan_Wolverines_men's_basketball_team

That IA team won 17, not 20 as you suggest. And that included a loss in the first round of BTT to finish the year 17-14. A better example but 9 years ago. Am not sure the strength of the conference back then

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa/2007-schedule.html

 

[hdhntr1]

Iowa actually won 17 in 2006-07 (Alford's last year). Not correcting to be a pain, but rather to highlight the 20 win milestone. Going back 5 seasons, each of these teams won at least 20 games, were from a power conference, and had the worst RPI of any 20+ win team. All of them made the NIT.

2014-15: Texas A&M 20-11
2013-14: Clemson 20-12
2012-13: Arizona State 21-12
2011-12: Stanford 21-11*
2010-11: No applicable teams

*Stanford landed a #3 seed with an RPI of 96 from an extremely weak PAC 10/12. It should be noted that Iowa (while performing well in conference) got in with an RPI of 130 that same season. At time of this post, the 'Cats own an RPI of 102 (per ESPN).

At the very least, I think we can agree that NU getting bounced with 20 or 21 wins would mark a pretty rare occurrence.


IOWA 06-07

You missed that he was incorrect on Michigan as well. They were 15-15 in the regular season and then went 1-1 in BTT for final record of 16-16. They also only went 2-7 down the stretch while we would have to go at least 5-5 or 5-3 if his premise of only beating weak teams holds. That would mean we would also finish fairly strong.

Just saying,I think 8 conference wins gets us in. Especially if we were to win at least one in BTT giving us 21 wins. This is especially since the BIG is considered rightly or wrongly to be reasonably strong the last few years and it takes a bit for perceptions to change.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

You missed that he was incorrect on Michigan as well. They were 15-15 in the regular season and then went 1-1 in BTT for final record of 16-16. They also only went 2-7 down the stretch while we would have to go at least 5-5 or 5-3 if his premise of only beating weak teams holds. That would mean we would also finish fairly strong.

Just saying,I think 8 conference wins gets us in. Especially if we were to win at least one in BTT giving us 21 wins. This is especially since the BIG is considered rightly or wrongly to be reasonably strong the last few years and it takes a bit for perceptions to change.

I was more concerned about a team crossing the 20 win threshold and being left out, but yeah you're spot on about Michigan.

I tend to think 7-11 in conference, with a 1-1 finish in the BTT, would be mark to make (20-13 overall). We might be sweating bullets throughout the early portion of championship week, but say 10-11 auto bids went out (like in 2011-12), I'd feel pretty good about our chances. 21 wins and I think it's a lock.

Of course, all of this is subject to change depending on how soft the NCAA (and thus the NIT) bubble is this year.

 

[hoosboot]

You missed that he was incorrect on Michigan as well. They were 15-15 in the regular season and then went 1-1 in BTT for final record of 16-16. They also only went 2-7 down the stretch while we would have to go at least 5-5 or 5-3 if his premise of only beating weak teams holds. That would mean we would also finish fairly strong.

Just saying,I think 8 conference wins gets us in. Especially if we were to win at least one in BTT giving us 21 wins. This is especially since the BIG is considered rightly or wrongly to be reasonably strong the last few years and it takes a bit for perceptions to change.

It will be interesting, but I'm still really skeptical that we get an NIT bid without a good win. That Iowa team sort of defeats my own point as they had good wins against Michigan State, Indiana, and Michigan in addition to some bad losses. But, they got to 9 Big 10 wins and still didn't make it.

The NIT has very much been about politics over the years, too, so it will be a testament to Coach Collins' influence if he can get us an invite without some Top 100 wins. Let's make it a moot point by winning tonight!

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Let's make it a moot point by winning tonight!

+1 Million.

 

[julescat]

It would be a very bad message for any borderline team with such a ridiculously bad OOC schedule to get any reward or benefit of the doubt. NU must beat a couple of actually good teams while getting to at least 9 wins in the B10.

 

[hdhntr1]

It would be a very bad message for any borderline team with such a ridiculously bad OOC schedule to get any reward or benefit of the doubt. NU must beat a couple of actually good teams while getting to at least 9 wins in the B10.

We are not talking the NCAA but the NIT. You are also talking 20 plus wins and the difference between what you feel is our "ridiculously bad" and a really good OOC schedule is only a couple games. 20 plus wins and 8 wins in conference sort of supersedes that.

Suppose we had that harder schedule with two more tough teams and lost those 2 games so that we were 18-13 with 8 wins in conference prior to BTT. What would you say then? Would it be a bad message to invite us then? I would guess you would be all over the NIT for not inviting us.

 

[hoosboot]

We are not talking the NCAA but the NIT. You are also talking 20 plus wins and the difference between what you feel is our "ridiculously bad" and a really good OOC schedule is only a couple games. 20 plus wins and 8 wins in conference sort of supersedes that.

Suppose we had that harder schedule with two more tough teams and lost those 2 games so that we were 18-13 with 8 wins in conference prior to BTT. What would you say then? Would it be a bad message to invite us then? I would guess you would be all over the NIT for not inviting us.

18-13 against that schedule is equally meh because it says the same thing...that we can't beat quality teams. Whether we schedule 31 games against patsies and go 31-0 or 0-31 playing the #20 team in the country every game, all it would prove is that we can beat bad teams, but haven't proven we can beat good teams. A better question would be...we drop our two weakest opponents, played two more tough teams (top 30), and beat one and lost to one. Would 19-12 with a Top 30 win or 20-11 with our current schedule be better? IMHO, 20 wins isn't the magic number it used to be and given our schedule I don't think 8 wins against the bottom 6-7 teams in the B1G (which may have only 25 wins between them in conference play) will be either.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Hoos,

While I agree it is easier to "schedule" your way to 20 wins now with expanded non conference/increased holiday tournment schedule, the creation of NCAA tournament's "first four" has benefited power 5 at large teams across the board. The expansion to 68 has essentially created 4 additional spots for NIT. While the NCAA will catch flak about snubbing at large mid majors, the NIT already guarentees their regular season conference champions a spot. That move absolves the NIT for any preference toward at large power 5 schools.

The bubbles, with some varience from year to year, are generally considered to be pretty soft in the current post expansion environment. A quick glance through resumes over the last 5 years shows teams with RPIs in the upper 80s and
low 90s are earning 2 and 3 seeds in the NIT.

That being said, we should pull for a strong finish from Wisconsin, especially if the 'Cats lose tonight. That may end up being this year's marquee win.

 

[Catreporter]

I don't think we get to twenty wins playing like we have since the BIG began. The scouting report on us is to force McIntosh to give up the ball and make others beat you. Terrible three point shooting by everyone except in the Minnesota game isn't going to get it done. I think we could even lose to the Gophers or Rutgers at home if we keep throwing up bricks like we did against Maryland, Penn St. and Ohio St. And we were only 4-for-16 vs. Wisconsin. Maryland tried to give us the game there and we couldn't make a shot of any kind late.