Chris Lowery and Defense

[ballerog711]

It will be interesting what the defense looks like with some starters returning and Lowry able to work the team over the summer.

Need one/two of the sophomores to step up.

Transfers are veterans so hopefully a short learning curve.

Be nice if one of the freshmen could pick things up and provide a few minutes

 

[macarthur31]

When we picked up Mullins, it was tough for me not to see some similarities to Audige's journey in that we picked up a physical toolsy guard from a mid-major. I then went over to kenpom to do a comparable between their freshman years - Audige, 2019; Mullins, 2023. Also, consider:

• kenpom lists their frosh height/weight as: Audige as 6'4" 193 lbs and Mullins as 6'6" , 190lbs
• kenpom rates Denver's Summit League (24th) slightly higher than William & Mary's Colonial (26th).

Player	%Min	ORTG	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast Rate
Audige	72.2	103.2	18.5	18.4	55.1	56.8	4.4	11.6	14.7
Mullins	72.2	102.3	17.1	17.9	55.3	57.8	3.9	9.6	7.5

Player	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT, %	2PT, %	3PT, %
Audige	20.3	2.1	2.9	4.0	2.7	26.6	40-60, 66.7	66-112, 54.1	39-104, 37.5
Mullins	21.8	1.3	2.7	2.8	3.1	34.6	50-72, 69.4%	82-148, 55.4%	22-60, 36.7

For the purposes of this thread, I'm focusing on defense - and it appears that while frosh Chase had a better rebounding/blocking profile, Mullins rates comparably with steals and better at dodging the ref's whistle. While I don't see him as a "like for like" trade for Audige, I see the potential as him starting at a good floor defensively and excited about the prospect of him being coached up by Lowery and his system.

One quick example of the "Lowery Effect", let's look at Ty Berry's 3 years:

Year	%Min	DR%	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40
2021	31.9	10.5	1.2	3.3	3.2
2022	54.4	11.3	0.8	1.8	3.5
2023 - Lowery	69.9	16.9	0.7	3.0	2.9

Note that as Berry has more than doubled his minutes on the court, his defensive rebounding had increased significantly and his steals are up. While you could note they aren't as good as his frosh year, bear in mind he played way more minutes and per kenpom was the 4th highest Stl% in B1G conference (McConnell 4.55%, Audige 4.28%, Spencer 3.9%). And he was able to do this at a career best 2.9 Fouls Committed/40.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

When we picked up Mullins, it was tough for me not to see some similarities to Audige's journey in that we picked up a physical toolsy guard from a mid-major. I then went over to kenpom to do a comparable between their freshman years - Audige, 2019; Mullins, 2023. Also, consider:

• kenpom lists their frosh height/weight as: Audige as 6'4" 193 lbs and Mullins as 6'6" , 190lbs
• kenpom rates Denver's Summit League (24th) slightly higher than William & Mary's Colonial (26th).

Player	%Min	ORTG	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast Rate
Audige	72.2	103.2	18.5	18.4	55.1	56.8	4.4	11.6	14.7
Mullins	72.2	102.3	17.1	17.9	55.3	57.8	3.9	9.6	7.5

Player	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT, %	2PT, %	3PT, %
Audige	20.3	2.1	2.9	4.0	2.7	26.6	40-60, 66.7	66-112, 54.1	39-104, 37.5
Mullins	21.8	1.3	2.7	2.8	3.1	34.6	50-72, 69.4%	82-148, 55.4%	22-60, 36.7

For the purposes of this thread, I'm focusing on defense - and it appears that while frosh Chase had a better rebounding/blocking profile, Mullins rates comparably with steals and better at dodging the ref's whistle. While I don't see him as a "like for like" trade for Audige, I see the potential as him starting at a good floor defensively and excited about the prospect of him being coached up by Lowery and his system.

One quick example of the "Lowery Effect", let's look at Ty Berry's 3 years:

Year	%Min	DR%	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40
2021	31.9	10.5	1.2	3.3	3.2
2022	54.4	11.3	0.8	1.8	3.5
2023 - Lowery	69.9	16.9	0.7	3.0	2.9

Note that as Berry has more than doubled his minutes on the court, his defensive rebounding had increased significantly and his steals are up. While you could note they aren't as good as his frosh year, bear in mind he played way more minutes and per kenpom was the 4th highest Stl% in B1G conference (McConnell 4.55%, Audige 4.28%, Spencer 3.9%). And he was able to do this at a career best 2.9 Fouls Committed/40.

This is very exciting. Seeing new players like Mullins is one of reasons to watch those early season games.

Berry’s evolution on the defensive side last year was unexpected. He could always grab a steal but he struck me as a soft player. His defensive rebounding last year impressed me. Hoping that the Lowery effect does not have a permanent negative impact on Berry’s shooting. Retuning to form this year would do so much for the offense.

 

[wocka]

When we picked up Mullins, it was tough for me not to see some similarities to Audige's journey in that we picked up a physical toolsy guard from a mid-major. I then went over to kenpom to do a comparable between their freshman years - Audige, 2019; Mullins, 2023. Also, consider:

• kenpom lists their frosh height/weight as: Audige as 6'4" 193 lbs and Mullins as 6'6" , 190lbs
• kenpom rates Denver's Summit League (24th) slightly higher than William & Mary's Colonial (26th).

Player	%Min	ORTG	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast Rate
Audige	72.2	103.2	18.5	18.4	55.1	56.8	4.4	11.6	14.7
Mullins	72.2	102.3	17.1	17.9	55.3	57.8	3.9	9.6	7.5

Player	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FT, %	2PT, %	3PT, %
Audige	20.3	2.1	2.9	4.0	2.7	26.6	40-60, 66.7	66-112, 54.1	39-104, 37.5
Mullins	21.8	1.3	2.7	2.8	3.1	34.6	50-72, 69.4%	82-148, 55.4%	22-60, 36.7

For the purposes of this thread, I'm focusing on defense - and it appears that while frosh Chase had a better rebounding/blocking profile, Mullins rates comparably with steals and better at dodging the ref's whistle. While I don't see him as a "like for like" trade for Audige, I see the potential as him starting at a good floor defensively and excited about the prospect of him being coached up by Lowery and his system.

One quick example of the "Lowery Effect", let's look at Ty Berry's 3 years:

Year	%Min	DR%	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40
2021	31.9	10.5	1.2	3.3	3.2
2022	54.4	11.3	0.8	1.8	3.5
2023 - Lowery	69.9	16.9	0.7	3.0	2.9

Note that as Berry has more than doubled his minutes on the court, his defensive rebounding had increased significantly and his steals are up. While you could note they aren't as good as his frosh year, bear in mind he played way more minutes and per kenpom was the 4th highest Stl% in B1G conference (McConnell 4.55%, Audige 4.28%, Spencer 3.9%). And he was able to do this at a career best 2.9 Fouls Committed/40.

BartTorvik's offensive and defensive efficiency and rating stats are really good for this stuff, and can paint a similar but slightly different picture here. Audige and Mullins were both below-average defenders their freshman years before transferring to NU - Audige was a medium sized bit better defensive efficiency wise, but Mullins was actually much better offensively. Audige made a massive leap in his first year playing at NU (after sitting out for a year), having better defensive numbers that year than Beran and Boo did last year - he just went from very good to elite by the time his last year rolled around. We'll be looking for similar improvement from Mullins, but I think he projects as more of a two-way player than Audige was (who was more forced to carry offensive volume due to lack of other options - hopefully less of a problem this year).

Totally agree on Berry, his defense is going to be a huge x-factor for us this year, and is the player we'll need to step up the most to replace Audige.

 

[elgatoloco]

BartTorvik's offensive and defensive efficiency and rating stats are really good for this stuff, and can paint a similar but slightly different picture here. Audige and Mullins were both below-average defenders their freshman years before transferring to NU - Audige was a medium sized bit better defensive efficiency wise, but Mullins was actually much better offensively. Audige made a massive leap in his first year playing at NU (after sitting out for a year), having better defensive numbers that year than Beran and Boo did last year - he just went from very good to elite by the time his last year rolled around. We'll be looking for similar improvement from Mullins, but I think he projects as more of a two-way player than Audige was (who was more forced to carry offensive volume due to lack of other options - hopefully less of a problem this year).

Totally agree on Berry, his defense is going to be a huge x-factor for us this year, and is the player we'll need to step up the most to replace Audige.

Freshman rarely are elite defenders. That isn't why they're recruited.

 

[ballerog711]

Interesting comparison with Audige/Mullins. Excited to see what Mullins becomes.

Ty was a very surprising player last year. Made up for some of the injuries NU faced.

 

[GC Go Cat]

Chase Audige was the co-defensive MVP of his William and Mary team as a true freshman. It is not right to say that he was a subpar defender as a freshman.