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Clayton vs. KJ (I apologize for beating a dead horse)

ThatkidfromHolland

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Sep 9, 2015
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Since it seems to be hotly contested debate on the board I figured I’d give my tape analysis of KJ and Clayton.

Intro:
With Barnhizer and Leach sidelined, Clayton and KJ are now tasked with running the offense. There’s no one else on the roster capable of doing this at the moment. Neither is at the level of Barnhizer or Leach, both offensively or defensively, and they shouldn’t be expected to be. I don’t place much emphasis on who starts, as it's likely symbolic given Clayton’s redshirt status (or lack thereof). What matters is who gets the minutes and is on the court when it counts. Both players are splitting time at the point guard position.

Clayton:
Clayton has a limited ceiling, but with development, he could become a solid floor general, defender, and a fine three-point shooter. He doesn't show the ability to break down defenders off the dribble at this level and lacks the range to hit threes with limited space. At times, he forces the offense. Defensively you can tell he as an extra year in the weigh room compared to KJ, but still has work to do. His switches aren't clean, and his positioning is inconsistent. He’s not quick enough to be an elite defender at this level but has the frame and athleticism to improve into a decent one. He’s essentially a work in progress, and it's clear why he redshirted. This may be his best chance at significant B1G minutes. He did play the best of the two against Washington, although that wasn't much of a benchmark. Level of competition could also be a factor in this.

KJ:
KJ’s ceiling is higher. He’s flashed the ability to break down defenders off the dribble, second only to a healthy Leach on this team in that regard. However, he tends to hold the ball too long, causing the offense to stagnate or forcing a play. He still struggles to play within the offense and is prone to typical freshman mistakes. That said, he’s shown he can create space, hit deep shots off the dribble, and get to/finish at the rim. Defensively, he has a lot of room for improvement, his positioning and footwork need work, and he needs time in the weight room. For example, watch how Thornton drives against KJ, Clayton, and Gello, then compare it to how he fares against Berry. KJ is quick enough and has the frame to improve in these areas within a year or two and has the potential to become a very solid two-way player. Most of his negatives are just things that take time. His development will become clearer next year after a full year in the system, and I’m optimistic about his growth.

Conclusion:
KJ clearly has the higher ceiling and has been playing better recently. However, this season, the difference in play between the two isn’t consistent. We saw Clayton play better, marginally, against Washington and KJ light it up against Oregon and Ohio State. Don’t focus too much on who starts, it’s more important to pay attention to who gets the minutes and finishes the games. Clayton has made a selfless decision, and that deserves recognition. Both will log real minutes going forward, and they'll continue to split time. Hopefully, KJ keeping playing himself into more of the minutes load, even if Clayton keeps starting. Both players are liabilities defensively, but KJ has been more productive offensively and some games it’s not close. The team would be in a much better position with Leach and Barnhizer running the offense, but injuries happen, and players need to step up. There’s no planning for it. The opportunity is there for both KJ and Clayton.
 
Though KJ's improvement has been more noticeable/faster, I would add that Clayton is taking and making some shots now. Not a lot, but perhaps enough to keep the defense honest. That opens up spacing and makes our offensive actions work better. The same goes for KJ of course but for the most part we already knew he had offensive potential. In the current context, we need them both and the coaching staff are doing a great job leveraging the talent we have.
 
Clayton is taking and making some shots now.
That's certainly seems like an improvement over last year. I always wanted so badly for him to make anything, if for no other reason than to give him a little confidence, and he never seemed to get there. Turns out he's missed exactly 19 field goals both of the last two years (4-for-23 last year, 8-for-27 this year). On three pointers he's 4-for-14 (after going 1-for-12 last year). So it's a mild improvement.
 
Not a clayton fan, will agree he has been better than last year but the bar was so low. Majority of his time he is dribbling at top of key and passing to another player also at the top of the key. Maybe his improved showing will convince him that he can successfully transfer elsewhere.
 
There must be a reason why they run plays for Clayton early in the game. He can hit the pullup to the right and left of foul line. He doesn't need to shoot a ton. Just enough to ensure his defender can't ignore him.

Windham can hit the stepback 3 off the dribble.

It's fun to see them develop.
 
The clayton percentages are abysmal. Doesn’t pass the eye test, and the stats don’t lie. I’m a diehard fan, but have to keep it real. The other team is begging for him to shoot the ball.
 
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I like when they fall, but that is just not statistically significant. They are not good shots. Id love to be proven wrong.
 
Not a clayton fan, will agree he has been better than last year but the bar was so low. Majority of his time he is dribbling at top of key and passing to another player also at the top of the key. Maybe his improved showing will convince him that he can successfully transfer elsewhere.
Actually I can see both being important to have next year. They are pretty close this year with KJ starting to get the edge. Will agree that KJ seems to have the higher upside but Clayton could still fill an important role next year. West will likely not be ready yet and having a reasonable backup at PG can be a pretty important piece to have. Especially since as we have seen, injuries happen often and PG is a pretty important position. The other alternative is to bring in a more senior guy through the portal but to be able to do that probably are not going to get them to come to be a backup. Clayton and KJ would look to be a descent tandem. Then if West develops, Clayton could decide to move on as his potential minutes could diminish. And if he is like a lot of our guys, he might already have his degree
 
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Clayton's biggest problem was on the defensive end for a couple games. Not sure why anybody expects (or wants) him to transfer. He looks significantly better than last year to me. And thats a nice surprise. Who knows if he'll develop further?

I looked up a bunch of recent NU players to see how long it took them to put up a 20 point game against a Big Ten opponent...

Boo Buie did that in his 2nd Big Ten game, but that was his only 20+ pt game as a freshman against the league.
Pete Nance didnt have a 20 point game against a Big Ten team until he was a junior.
Ryan Young never did it.
Nick Martinelli never scored 10 points as a freshman, but had 27 against Maryland in his 28th game as a sophomore.
Brooks Barnhizer never scored 20 until he broke thru with 23 against PSU in his 15th game as a junior.
Pat Spencer had one 22 point effort as a grad transfer.
Ty Berry scored 23 against Ohio State in the 13th game of his sophomore season and once as a junior.
Miller Kopp had two 20 point games as a sophomore. He scored more than 10 points once as a freshman.
Robbie Beran never scored 20 against a Big Ten opponent.
Chase Audige had two 20 point games for NU as a transfer playing his 2nd year of D1 basketball.
Vic Law had two 20 point games as a redshirt sophomore.
Dererk Pardon memorably had 28 against Nebraska in his Big Ten debut, but didn't put up 20 again until he did it once as a junior.
Scotty Lindsey didn't break 20 until he poured in 31 against Penn State as a junior.
Bryant McIntosh had a 21 point effort against Maryland in his 20th game. He followed that up twice as a sophomore.
Tre Demps put up 20 against Iowa in the BTT at the end of his 2nd full season.

So it appears that KJ Windham is the only Wildcat in the Collins era to score 20+ points twice as a freshman against a Big Ten opponent. Dererk Pardon, Boo Bue and Bryant McIntosh are the only other Wildcats I found who scored 20 points once in a Big Ten game as a freshman. Angelo Ciaravino almost joined that group with his 19 point effort against Purdue.
 
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The clayton percentages are abysmal. Doesn’t pass the eye test, and the stats don’t lie. I’m a diehard fan, but have to keep it real. The other team is begging for him to shoot the ball.
As PG his principal purpose is to run the O and play reasonable D. He has shown progress in his O from last year to this and even from first game playing this year to more recently. And reality is that he just does not have that much game time because even when he was getting in last year he was not playing that many minutes. And remember he had zero game time experience this year until a couple weeks ago, Pretty hard to slow the game down under those circumstances, He has been steady on the floor and has kept the mistakes to a minimum He is about where one would expect for a guy who had no time in a game experience this year until a couple weeks ago and has all of 100 minutes so far this year (vs almost 400 for KJ). Heck his 3pt shooting %s are about the same as KJ, Mullins and AC and he has only been in 6 games vs 25 or more for the others. Yes he played last year but he really did not have many minutes. Reality is that he is about where one would expect
 
The clayton percentages are abysmal. Doesn’t pass the eye test, and the stats don’t lie. I’m a diehard fan, but have to keep it real. The other team is begging for him to shoot the ball.
We don’t need anyone who is capable of playing meaningful minutes against Big Ten opponents transferring at the end of the year. Full stop.

Clayton might not have a super high ceiling but we need continuity and maturity for next year with five freshmen and a lot of institutional knowledge gone from Brooks/Berry/Matt. He has shown himself capable of running point and at a minimum will push KJ to keep growing.

I think after next season, when we get a decent look at the freshmen, is when Collins will be able to be more real with guys about their prospects for playing time.

In the meantime I’m excited by Clayton showing signs of belonging at this level and I’m hoping it continues tonight.
 
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