Conference Realignment

[HappyNUyear]

Current Conferences & My Opinions ​

PAC-12
*Arizona
*Arizona State
*California
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*Washington State
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Oregon State
*Stanford
*Oklahoma State (Leaves Big XII)
*Kansas State (Leaves Big XII)
*Baylor (Leaves Big XII)
*Texas Tech (Leaves Big XII)
*BYU (Joins Conf Again) or Air Force (Leaves MWC)
*Utah State or Colorado State (Leaves MWC)

Big XII
*Texas (Leaving for SEC)
*Oklahoma (Leaving for SEC)
*Oklahoma State (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Kansas (B1G Candidate)
*Kansas State (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Baylor (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Texas Tech (PAC-12 Candidate)
*TCU (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Iowa State (B1G Candidate)
*West Virginia (ACC Candidate)

ACC
*Boston College
*Pittsburgh (B1G Candidate)
*Syracuse (B1G Candidate)
*Viginia
*Virginia Tech
*Georgia Tech
*Florida State
*Clemson
*Louisville
*NC State
*North Carolina
*Duke
*Wake Forest
*Miami
*West Virginia (Leaves ACC)
*Notre Dame (Becomes Full-Time Member)
*UCF (leaves AAC)
*USF (Leaves AAC
*Memphis (Leaves AAC)
*East Carolina (Leaves AAC)

B1G
*Northwestern
*Wisconsin
*Nebraska
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*Pittsburgh (Leaves ACC)
*Syracuse (Leaves ACC)
*Iowa State (Leaves Big XII)
*Kansas (Leaves Big XII) or Colorado (Leaves PAC-12)

SEC
*Texas (Joining SEC)
*Oklahoma (Joining SEC)
*Alabama
*Georgia
*Arkansas
*Auburn
*South Carolina
*Florida
*Mississippi
*Mississippi State
*Kentucky
*LSU
*Tennessee
*Vanderbilt
*Texas A&M
*Missouri
*Houston (Leaves AAC)
*Cincinnati (Leaves AAC)

This of course may/may not occur, but at least it's regional now for the most part.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Current Conferences & My Opinions ​

PAC-12
*Arizona
*Arizona State
*California
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*Washington State
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Oregon State
*Stanford
*Oklahoma State (Leaves Big XII)
*Kansas State (Leaves Big XII)
*Baylor (Leaves Big XII)
*Texas Tech (Leaves Big XII)
*BYU (Joins Conf Again) or Air Force (Leaves MWC)
*Utah State or Colorado State (Leaves MWC)

Big XII
*Texas (Leaving for SEC)
*Oklahoma (Leaving for SEC)
*Oklahoma State (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Kansas (B1G Candidate)
*Kansas State (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Baylor (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Texas Tech (PAC-12 Candidate)
*TCU (PAC-12 Candidate)
*Iowa State (B1G Candidate)
*West Virginia (ACC Candidate)

ACC
*Boston College
*Pittsburgh (B1G Candidate)
*Syracuse (B1G Candidate)
*Viginia
*Virginia Tech
*Georgia Tech
*Florida State
*Clemson
*Louisville
*NC State
*North Carolina
*Duke
*Wake Forest
*Miami
*West Virginia (Rejoins ACC)
*Notre Dame (Becomes Full-Time Member)
*UCF (leaves AAC)
*USF (Leaves AAC
*Memphis (Leaves AAC)
*East Carolina (Leaves AAC)

B1G
*Northwestern
*Wisconsin
*Nebraska
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*Pittsburgh (Leaves ACC)
*Syracuse (Leaves ACC)
*Iowa State (Leaves Big XII)
*Kansas (Leaves Big XII) or Colorado (Leaves PAC-12)

SEC
*Texas (Joining SEC)
*Oklahoma (Joining SEC)
*Alabama
*Georgia
*Arkansas
*Auburn
*South Carolina
*Florida
*Mississippi
*Mississippi State
*Kentucky
*LSU
*Tennessee
*Vanderbilt
*Texas A&M
*Missouri
*Houston (Leaves AAC)
*Cincinnati (Leaves AAC)

This of course may/may not occur, but at least it's regional now for the most part.

Houston and Cincy to the SEC? Hell no.

 

[pawildcat]

West Virginia was not in the ACC.

 

[Hungry Jack]

B1G East
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*North Carolina

B1G Norris
*Northwestern
*Nebraska
*Wisconsin
*Kansas (for hoops)
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue

B1G Coastal
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Stanford (we start beating them on the field>> beat them for recruits)

6 divisional games + 4 crossover
1 OOC game

4 team playoff = 3 division winners and a wildcard team (best conference record, point differential, coin flip)

screw the SEC

 

[NJCat]

B1G East
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*North Carolina

B1G Norris
*Northwestern
*Nebraska
*Wisconsin
*Kansas (for hoops)
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue

B1G Coastal
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Stanford (we start beating them on the field>> beat them for recruits)

6 divisional games + 4 crossover
1 OOC game

4 team playoff = 3 division winners and a wildcard team (best conference record, point differential, coin flip)

screw the SEC

Naming a division after the ugliest, more useless student center ever? Disgraceful!

 

[AZCat]

A fly appears in the ointment. University leaders from Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech are complaining to Texas State Senators

https://tvnewscheck.com/top-news/bu...f-losing-50-of-tv-value-following-ut-ou-exit/

 

[CatManTrue]

Naming a division after the ugliest, more useless student center ever? Disgraceful!

Hey now. It wasn’t all that bad. I have some great memories from there. And some not so great of the expensive bookstore in the basement.

And I bet HJ was referring to the old “Chuck” version.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

B1G East
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*North Carolina

B1G Norris
*Northwestern
*Nebraska
*Wisconsin
*Kansas (for hoops)
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue

B1G Coastal
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Stanford (we start beating them on the field>> beat them for recruits)

6 divisional games + 4 crossover
1 OOC game

4 team playoff = 3 division winners and a wildcard team (best conference record, point differential, coin flip)

screw the SEC

Did Indiana and Minnesota get booted out of the B1G?

 

[Hungry Jack]

Naming a division after the ugliest, more useless student center ever? Disgraceful!

Not a hockey fan?

 

[Hungry Jack]

Did Indiana and Minnesota get booted out of the B1G?

Yup.

Actually, we can boot Nebby and keep Minny.

One Indiana team is enough.

 

[zeek55]

Folks follow the money, if it doesn't expand the pie for FOX/ESPN/BTN then it won't happen.

Kansas, Pitt, and other such schools are hard to justify financially.

 

[AZCat]

A fly appears in the ointment. University leaders from Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech are complaining to Texas State Senators

https://tvnewscheck.com/top-news/bu...f-losing-50-of-tv-value-following-ut-ou-exit/

There is this gem from the article

"After Hartzell said Texas’ athletic budget was between $220-$225 million per year — one of the largest in the country — Sen. Lois Kolkhorst noted the Longhorns had only won three of the last 10 games against her alma mater, TCU.

'Maybe your fanbase would rather lose to Alabama than TCU,' she said."

 

[eastbaycat99]

B1G East
*Michigan
*Michigan State
*Ohio State
*Penn State
*Rutgers
*Maryland
*North Carolina

B1G Norris
*Northwestern
*Nebraska
*Wisconsin
*Kansas (for hoops)
*Illinois
*Iowa
*Purdue

B1G Coastal
*Colorado
*UCLA
*Washington
*USC
*Utah
*Oregon
*Stanford (we start beating them on the field>> beat them for recruits)

6 divisional games + 4 crossover
1 OOC game

4 team playoff = 3 division winners and a wildcard team (best conference record, point differential, coin flip)

screw the SEC

Cal and not Colorado please! Otherwise, great.

 

[HappyNUyear]

West Virginia was not in the ACC.

I meant AAC formerly Big East Football

Too many A’s & C’s

AAC ACC. LOL

 

[HappyNUyear]

Folks follow the money, if it doesn't expand the pie for FOX/ESPN/BTN then it won't happen.

Kansas, Pitt, and other such schools are hard to justify financially.

KU Athletic Department makes more money in one year due to basketball alone then maybe OSU and UM

 

[Darren72]

Cal and not Colorado please! Otherwise, great.

Yea, can’t separate Berkeley from Stanford.

 

[CatManTrue]

Yea, can’t separate Berkeley from Stanford.

They’re already separated thanks to all that Berkeley speed.

 

[zeek55]

KU Athletic Department makes more money in one year due to basketball alone then maybe OSU and UM

Okay tell me how Kansas selling basketball tickets/licensing helps our TV deals (of which football is 80%)?

It doesn't. Kansas is maybe worth $10 million per year to the Big Ten's TV deals (mostly BTN), that doesn't justify giving them a $60 million per year share.

 

[HappyNUyear]

Okay tell me how Kansas selling basketball tickets/licensing helps our TV deals (of which football is 80%)?

It doesn't. Kansas is maybe worth $10 million per year to the Big Ten's TV deals (mostly BTN), that doesn't justify giving them a $60 million per year share.

I see your point, however what you and I believe doesn’t really matter. It’s really up to the B1G Presidents what they want

 

[HappyNUyear]

Bottomline, many on this board didn’t want Rutgers, Maryland or Nebraska………guess what the B1G didn’t care what fans wanted. The B1G Presidents did what they wanted.

 

[zeek55]

Bottomline, many on this board didn’t want Rutgers, Maryland or Nebraska………guess what the B1G didn’t care what fans wanted. The B1G Presidents did what they wanted.

Sure, but I've never cared about what fans want. I agreed with all 3 of those previous additions 6-10 years ago because the finances made sense for Northwestern. Every one of those 3 additions increased our expected TV payouts, and the projections we were given (increase from 20 million to 45-50 million by end of 2010s) worked out...

I'm talking about the perspective of what the Big Ten presidents and Big Ten financial executives (including those at BTN) want.

Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers were all strong choices for financial reasons. Nebraska brought its national football brand to the conference along with 750k households for the Big Ten's footprint. While that is the smallest footprint of any school in the conference, their national brand made for higher quality (increased viewership) of our football games for FOX/ESPN.

Maryland and Rutgers while not having national brands added another 5.4 million households to the footprint and fortified the Big Ten in the Northeast along Penn State's border while weakening the ACC. Both are located in good recruiting territories for students and are closer to the Mid-Atlantic, which is 1 of the 4 growth hubs of the country. Also worth noting that the alums for those 2 schools are mostly located in 3 of the largest TV markets in the country (NYC, Philly, DC) along with the rest of the Big Ten alums (such as from Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan) in those markets. That got us good carriage and good rates in New Jersey/Maryland for BTN.

Furthermore, we were able to increase the conference slate to 9 as a result of adding Maryland/Rutgers, which meant that we weren't diluting the matchup quality of our cross-division football games (i.e. Nebraska/Wisconsin weren't playing Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State less).


And all of that brings us to Kansas which has a national basketball brand and the worst Power 5 football brand in the country to the point that in the state of Kansas only like one county (its home county) has more Kansas fans than K-State fans by most metrics that weigh college football fandom.

Kansas has 1.1 million households and is not located in an area with lots of Big Ten alums or any major TV markets or recruiting grounds.

We wouldn't be able to prevent Kansas from diluting the quality of Big Ten football matchups if we give them a slate of 9 games and don't increase the # of games in the conference to 10. Giving Kansas games against Wisconsin/Nebraska means they play Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State less if we keep 9 game schedules. So that's basically just a lot of BTN matchups that would draw 100-300k viewers.

Where's the money is the question?

 

[HappyNUyear]

KU also draws from the Kansas City Metro Area and not just the State of Kansas.

Listening to SiriusXM ESPNU College Sports last night, they have very little faith in Kevin Warren and believe he with B1G Presidents will target KU & ISU for expansion

 

[cidsports]

If B1G was to grab two solid candidates, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech would make sense, but Notre Dame appears happy with being hockey only in the Big Ten.

Georgia Tech's top rival is already in SEC, so seeing Tech in B1G, maybe West Virginia to ACC would make sense.

B1G will want 2, not 1.

KU and Iowa State are Big 12 teams. They are in the AAU, but don't make sense for football.

They are not Nebraska, and B1G needs to expand revenues, if the expand.

 

[curdog]

KU also draws from the Kansas City Metro Area and not just the State of Kansas.

Listening to SiriusXM ESPNU College Sports last night, they have very little faith in Kevin Warren and believe he with B1G Presidents will target KU & ISU for expansion

If BIG adds KU and/or ISU, Warren should be fired on the spot

 

[GECat2]

ISU to the BIG is a huge mistake.

 

[zeek55]

KU also draws from the Kansas City Metro Area and not just the State of Kansas.

Listening to SiriusXM ESPNU College Sports last night, they have very little faith in Kevin Warren and believe he with B1G Presidents will target KU & ISU for expansion

Sure, but there's no way to crunch the numbers and arrive at a way to expand our T1/2/3 deals enough for Kansas to expand our payouts.

Like I just don't see it; there's not $60 million in value there annually. There's at most like $20-30 million and that's stretching it.

 

[CatManTrue]

Sure, but there's no way to crunch the numbers and arrive at a way to expand our T1/2/3 deals enough for Kansas to expand our payouts.

Like I just don't see it; there's not $60 million in value there annually. There's at most like $20-30 million and that's stretching it.

Have you factored price inelasticity into your model? If not, you should. The B1G can simply charge more than they used to.

Here’s a key difference between 6 years ago and now: there is clearly a even crazier level of competition for content. Especially given the uncertainty of COVID. Hell, podcasts networks that barely generate any revenues and have no feasible way to do so are being bought for $200M.

Amazon is a new deep pocketed bidder that has entered the live sports arena, and they are willing to make moves for premier content such as the superconference college football product.

ESPN / Fox will have to pay more to keep playing. The B1G could thus add a Kansas and a West Virginia, charge more, and still make more money.

 

[zeek55]

Have you factored price inelasticity into your model? If not, you should. The B1G can simply charge more than they used to.

Here’s a key difference between 6 years ago and now: there is clearly a even crazier level of competition for content. Especially given the uncertainty of COVID. Hell, podcasts networks that barely generate any revenues and have no feasible way to do so are being bought for $200M.

Amazon is a new deep pocketed bidder that has entered the live sports arena, and they are willing to make moves for premier content such as the superconference college football product.

ESPN / Fox will have to pay more to keep playing. The B1G could thus add a Kansas and a West Virginia, charge more, and still make more money.

Yes, but until that tech money enters and has a way of connecting to eyeballs, it's just not going to work.

The conferences want people actually watching teams.

Amazon could offer $800 million a year to the Big Ten, but wouldn't be able to guarantee as many eyeballs on the games as say Fox/ESPN can offering $600 million a year.

That $200 million difference is the question; do you value actually having your schools getting seen by people or are you just valuing money.

That's why the NFL is just dipping its toes in the water with Amazon at this point; nobody knows what the future looks like and how to get people to actually watch content.

None of the conferences/sports leagues want their teams to just be shows on a streaming service that aren't getting seen.

 

[corbi296]

If B1G was to grab two solid candidates, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech would make sense, but Notre Dame appears happy with being hockey only in the Big Ten.

Georgia Tech's top rival is already in SEC, so seeing Tech in B1G, maybe West Virginia to ACC would make sense.

B1G will want 2, not 1.

KU and Iowa State are Big 12 teams. They are in the AAU, but don't make sense for football.

They are not Nebraska, and B1G needs to expand revenues, if the expand.

I agree that Georgia Tech makes a lot of sense for the Big Ten. I still think Clemson is “gettable” for the Big Ten. If not Clemson, I think Colorado would be a perfect pairing with Georgia Tech for Big ten expansion. Both with solid academic profiles (I think both are AAU members), both have solid athletic programs with history of more lofty stature, both operate in high growth demographic markets which would be attractive for TV, they would slot in nicely to the current conference structure with Colorado being added to the West and Tech to the East and lastly both would help the Big Ten establish an even greater foothold in two attractive recruiting areas.

I think in order to get ND to seriously consider the Big Ten,!the ACC has to fall apart. Poaching Clemson might accelerate that process.!if/when the ACC is on its last legs then ND will have no choice but to negotiate with the Big Ten. I don't think they would seriously entertain the thought of joining the SEC so the Big Ten would be the only viable option for them.

 

[Katatonic]

KU also draws from the Kansas City Metro Area and not just the State of Kansas.

Listening to SiriusXM ESPNU College Sports last night, they have very little faith in Kevin Warren and believe he with B1G Presidents will target KU & ISU for expansion

Most of KC and the most important parts are in Mizzou.

KC, KS is the 3rd largest city in KS which isn't saying much.

Pitt makes little sense geographic overlap with PSU) and Cuse FB doesn't bring the eyeballs.

No expansion scenario makes sense without at least one of the powerhouses - FSU, Clemson, USC.

And don't want any school to be on an island, so will have to be a package deal (hence PAC schools making less sense).

 

[zeek55]

Most of KC and the most important parts are in Mizzou.

KC, KS is the 3rd largest city in KS which isn't saying much.

Pitt makes little sense geographic overlap with PSU) and Cuse FB doesn't bring the eyeballs.

No expansion scenario makes sense without at least one of the powerhouses - FSU, Clemson, USC.

And don't want any school to be on an island, so will have to be a package deal (hence PAC schools making less sense).

Yeah, other thing to keep in mind is that the Big Ten has a lot of TV people from BTN/FOX involved in our expansion decisions.

That's why we got Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers and our TV payouts went up significantly (and the revenue/payouts from BTN went up significantly).

They will run projected payments for any addition; schools like Kansas/Iowa State/Syracuse/Pitt don't expand the pie more than they would take from an equal share of Big Ten revenue.

 

[CatManTrue]

Yeah, other thing to keep in mind is that the Big Ten has a lot of TV people from BTN/FOX involved in our expansion decisions.

That's why we got Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers and our TV payouts went up significantly (and the revenue/payouts from BTN went up significantly).

They will run projected payments for any addition; schools like Kansas/Iowa State/Syracuse/Pitt don't expand the pie more than they would take from an equal share of Big Ten revenue.

You talk as if you have material workings of the negotiations, which is intriguing.

Do you have a buddy in the know? Or were you personally involved?

 

[zeek55]

You talk as if you have material workings of the negotiations, which is intriguing.

Do you have a buddy in the know? Or were you personally involved?

I don't have any inside knowledge, but I know what our TV deals are and what the approximate values of these schools looks like.

You can estimate what TV games are worth based on what the conferences are getting for their games right now.

The Big Ten is at the point where only certain ACC and Pac-12 schools expand our TV deals enough to justify expansion.

USC with certain others of the Pac-12, ND, and a group of ACC schools centered around UNC, UVA are the only ones that work financially.

 

[HappyNUyear]

Most of KC and the most important parts are in Mizzou.

KC, KS is the 3rd largest city in KS which isn't saying much.

Pitt makes little sense geographic overlap with PSU) and Cuse FB doesn't bring the eyeballs.

No expansion scenario makes sense without at least one of the powerhouses - FSU, Clemson, USC.

And don't want any school to be on an island, so will have to be a package deal (hence PAC schools making less sense).

The KC Area is all KU basketball and K State in Football & Mizzou too per my family who reside there. In otherwords is split three ways