NU would be ranked ahead of Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina this late in the season ?
Never thought I’d see it !
Never thought I’d see it !
Did you ever think ….
- Thread starter The Purple Knight
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Never thought I would see it this year, that’s for sure..Why is Indiana ranked ahead of us in the AP poll? We have a better record. We beat them twice. We are in sole possession of second place. No respect for our program. Go Cats!
Hoosiers being ranked above Cats makes absolutely no sense.
3 weeks ago I think a lot of us were hoping we'd put together enough for an NIT bid with maybe a slim chance at the NCAA tournament if everything went our way.
Instead we're a lock for the NCAA tournament and have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten with 4 games left.
Past 5 games has changed everything.
Instead we're a lock for the NCAA tournament and have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten with 4 games left.
Past 5 games has changed everything.
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The next 4 games could produce a Big 10 championship. That sounds pretty good. Keep the momentum going.
I never thought I'd see it this year but I hope to be 100 (33more years) someday so I hadn't given up hope
Also: Las Vegas, the selection committee, all major predictive ranking systems, and the combined media and coaches of the country
Well, enjoy your company, especially your Hoosier buddies. Cats have been proving the haters and know-it-alls wrong all year.
Why do you have to go there?
AdamOnFirst and I have clashed on occasion, but I think he adds a lot to the discussion.
In this case, he's just offering an explanation for why Indiana is (still) ahead of us in the polls.
In my opinion the teams are pretty evenly matched.
The computers say Indiana has been better than us overall, primarily because they blew out every weak team they played in the non-conference (and we didn't).
The voters look at the computer rankings.
If there is a 3 team league and "Team A" beats "Team B" twice, "Team B" beats "Team C" twice and "Team C" beats "Team A" twice...
which team is best?
I don't think it's any kind of conspiracy or over-reliance on schedules/ratings. I just think voters are slow to come around to the Cats, and with good reason - they've been bad for a long time. Hard for some voters to realize, especially if they aren't watching them, that this team is actually really good.
Fans will be like this too. Let's say the Cats are the sixth seed and they play a First Four winner like West Virginia. Those Mountaineer fans will probably think NU is ripe for an upset just because they haven't seen them and know nothing at all about them other than that they usually aren't dancing. We will punch that team in the nose and their fans will be shocked!
Fans will be like this too. Let's say the Cats are the sixth seed and they play a First Four winner like West Virginia. Those Mountaineer fans will probably think NU is ripe for an upset just because they haven't seen them and know nothing at all about them other than that they usually aren't dancing. We will punch that team in the nose and their fans will be shocked!
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The idea that I’m apparently a fake fan now because I can look at our team’s ranking with some semblance of objectivity - I’m not even really making my own judgement, I’m just following the computer rankings, Vegas; etc that have built billion dollar industries on being very right about these things - is just silly. I guess if people want to do a “we’re disrespected thing,” whatever. I feel NU is getting a very fair and major amount of national attention the last couple weeks and am enjoying it a great deal. If we have a strong finish with this brutally difficult schedule we should (and probably will) skyrocket up the rankings further. I just don’t have to pretend the numbers aren’t real to enjoy this amazing season.
I hate this trope. Vegas doesn't make money by picking winners. They make money by getting equal amounts down on both sides and taking the vig. And they don't get equal money down by knowing who is going to win. They get equal money down by knowing the betting market. IU has way more fans willing to bet way more money than NU does. Thus even if they know we are better or deserve a higher rating, they are going to favor IU in order to even out the money.
Predictive metrics and evening out betting lines have their place, but that place is not in ranking teams for their performance so far this year. That should be based on accomplishment this season alone. NU has accomplished more than IU this season.
If MSU or scUM had NU’s resume they’d have been ranked after Purdue. It’s about the name and the $$$. No way a blue blood B1G team in 2nd place wouldn’t be ranked highly. If NU and IU resumes were flipped IU would still be ranked higher.
Vegas achieves an equal betting spread by setting lines that are very very close to the probabilistic 50% point, very successful and consistently, over a long time. With modern analytics the sharp dollars crush Vegas if they deviate too materially from this, which is why they do not. Setting objectively accurate lines is EXACTLY what they're doing, with great success.
Last, who says the AP rankings are ranking teams purely on their resume? They're subjective, many people answer a question "who is the top team" by answering "who is the team mostly likely to win any given game."
Last last last, tournament seeding and KPI IS a resume based metric... and IU still ahead of NU in both of those... although it's very, very close now. I think most likely NU will pass IU in KPI if we win on Thursday, but I'm not 100% sure.
Did you ever think NU would be a respected FB program? And then it would disappear and basketball would be the sport you most looked forward to?
I look forward to the off-season. Winning program style debates about coaches, players, recruits. Running back or how departures will impact the squad.
I will savor this season and see as much as I possibly can. Then be all about this program through the off-season.
Notice how little anyone posts about FB and how much of the Rock is BB or OT? Pretty sad but at least the gods have smiled upon this team and given us something to enjoy and debate throughout the year.
This is why knuckleheads over-complicate things. Let's see,
Better overall record? Check
Better conference record? Check
Head-to-head win? Check x2
NU vs. IU couldn't be simpler.
NU sports will giveth and then taketh away (sometimes for years)
Knowing that seasons like this can happen is why we’re here.
I don’t think your a fake fan, Did someone actually write that? If they did, they’re wrong. I am a little distrustful of someone who declares himself objective, though, but that’s just me.
Folks are saying that mathematical acrobatics should not trump actual head-to-head victories. If you were truly objective, you’d admit the argument has some weight. Strange that we’re in second place, no? Good thing the standings don’t bow down to the Vegas deities and sundry mathematical wizards..
The point was that we cannot win consistently. 90 years of history tell us we can’t do that (and can do a lot worse than that) and admissions is one of the top, if not the top, most predictive reasons as to why not. It’s not a fair playing field - it just isn’t, and I’m not sure how you can say it’s put to rest. Collins has (again and even further) gone way above any reasonable expectations of our coach.
I will pretty much guarantee that our opponents fans in the first round will expect to beat NU. It is what it is. Similar to Loyola on their run.
This is exactly how the “sharps” make money. They recognize the inefficiency of the market and pounce.
Your theory on Vegas is not what actually happens. Yes, they attempt to set a line that is very close to a 50% proposition. However, there is no way that line doesn’t move to match the amount of money coming in when the handle gets out of whack. Vegas get no extra points for nailing the line. What is important to Vegas is disbursing the handle to limit the exposure. If Indiana had 80% of the handle to cover a 2 point spread against NU, that line will be adjusted to 3,4,5, or whatever it takes to bring the handle closer to being balanced. It doesn’t mean Vegas thinks Indiana is suddenly 5 points better than NU, when basically nothing changed since the initial line was set. In most cases, if Vegas did their job, they don’t care who wins the bet.
Stats and data analysis has its place. However there are fans who get lost in the trees and don't see the forest. Strength of schedule and Quad classification of wins can be good data points, but even that's a fluid metric. For example, yesterday's Quad 1 loss could turn into a Quad 2 or 3 loss overnight. For the IU apologists, the comparison to NU couldn't be simpler. In this case, win-loss overrules other stats decisively.
The flaw in your thinking is this idea that a fan base like Indiana, or any fan base, is so ridiculous that they’re coming in a screwing a line so radically. They aren’t. Lines are correcting very closely with projection systems outside situations involving things like injuries.
I'm making fun of the extreme pessismists who stated emphatically that Northwestern cannot contend for Big Ten titles in basketball. I don't recall who said what, but I know there were people spouting that. (and I was opposed)
Bu there is really no reason that we cannot be midpack consistently. If we reach a higher standard than that, well the coach would be doing a great job running the basketball program.
100% false, thats not how sportsbooks work. They only move lines on "sharp" money, whether its at their book or its moving other books. They take positions every game, its a rarity to be anywhere near 50/50 on money bet.
If Joe Public bets Indiana, they will gladly take the money and keep the line at 2. Once 1 sharp bet comes in, the line will move. They certainly won't move off 2 just to give the sharps a better line. Look up Reverse Line Movement.
There are a few groups out there (Right Angle Sports) that will move the lines 2-3 points in seconds with a few bets.
Anyways, Circa is the top dog now for originating lines and taking any large bet. Their sportsbook managers are all on twitter and great follows. And they will confirm it doesn't work as you state. Or turn on VSIN (Brent Musburger), they have great insight and have the Vegas sportsbook directors on all the time to talk about current lines, movement, etc.
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There is a family with the surname Bigger. There is a mommy Bigger, a daddy Bigger and a baby Bigger.
Which of the 3 is bigger?
The baby is a little Bigger
Of course, they take positions on some games. The point is the money at times drives the movement of the line. If Joe public is 80% one way, why take the risk if you agree with that position? They don’t regularly lose money.
Yup - admissions was blamed for NU never being able to be a winning program. Now who were the ones making that claim…
To think admissions is not an issue is putting a proverbial head in the sand, as is saying it would prevent us from never having a winning record.
People like to use broad strokes around here. I believe admissions would not keep this program from being successful meaning more winning seasons than losing and regular appearances in the post season tournaments.
Just like it wouldn’t keep FB from doing the same.
Developing players with some talent and implementing complimentary systems is the key. For CCC, new coach brought in good system and CCC stopped playing guys out of position. And suddenly, they are a much better team. Using guys that all made it through admissions.
