+/- for the Unexpected Scoring Club against USC

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

A nice win for the Wildcats, with major (surprising) contributions from Justin Mullins and Keenan Fitzmorris.
Here is the unbiased evaluation...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	USC Pts	Raw +/-	Player +/-	Net +/-	Box Pts
Mullins	37	77	69	+8	+3.63	+5.23	10.4
Fitzmorris	9	19	13	+6	+3.20	+4.40	5.4
Martinelli	40	77	75	+2	+3.58	+3.98	11.9
Nicholson	27	52	56	-4	+1.98	+1.18	7.4
Windham	5	8	7	+1	-1.4	-1.2	-0.9
Smith	13	27	31	-4	-1.29	-2.09	1.5
Ciaravino	4	4	9	-5	-1.75	-2.75	-2
Leach	32	58	54	+4	-3.79	-2.99	2.2
Berry	32	63	61	+2	-4.16	-3.76	1.7

Three game balls for this one - Mullins, Fitzmorris and Martinelli. Fitzmorris bounced back from 2 poor efforts to post 8 points in 9 minutes, with 4 of 4 free throws and 3 offensive rebounds. And NU was +6 when he was playing center.
Justin Mullins finally played the game we all were (at one time) thinking he could play. Actually it was better than that. 4 of 5 from 3 will do that for you. Add in 7 rebounds and you've had a good night.
More on Mullins below.
Nick Martinelli took a whopping 25 shots, making 11. While that is not "efficient" his 10 offensive rebounds offset 10 missed shots, so his game score was pretty good. He got dinged for missing the front end of 2 one-and-ones.
Our two top guards both struggled from the field, shooting a combined 5 of 23 overall and 2 of 10 from outside the arc. That normally a recipe for disaster.
What Berry and Leach did do, however, was pass the ball into the paint to teammates who then scored easy baskets. We got 17 points from Nicholson and Fitzmorris.

It was a weird game in that USC was suddenly without its star 6'6" point guard Desmond Claude, who had attempted 188 2 point shots and only 37 three pointers. Our defensive gameplan was probably geared toward stopping Claude and USC from getting into the paint. Instead we faced Clark Slajchert, the Penn grad who was near the top of my wish list in last year's transfer portal. We couldn't stop him all night. Something tells me that Slajchert chose poorly when he transferred to USC, where he had been sitting on the bench, looking un-athletic. In the postgame, Martinelli complimented "Slasher" on his performance - and it took me a few seconds to realize who he was talking about - then I laughed. And so did the guys in the Big Ten studio. Guessing "Slasher" was discussed in our locker room at halftime.

Anytime Blake Smith is on the court during a competitive game, one of the scholarship athletes is getting slapped in the face.
When Collins subbed in Smith for Nicholson with 7 minutes to go in the first half he was going small with Martinelli, Mullins, Leach and Berry. If Luke Hunger is healthy, thats a bad sign. We played that lineup for 3:13, winning 4-3, but struggling to score. With 13:18 left in the game and NU leading 48-37, Collins subbed in Ciaravino for Fitzmorris, going small again, with Martinelli, Mullins, Leach and Berry. That lineup played 53 seconds and lost 3-2. Not really sure what that was about. When Jalen Leach got injured with 5:26 to go, NU leading 66-57, Collins subbed in Blake Smith (with Nicholson, Martinelli, Mullins and Berry) instead of the obvious choice (Windham) or Ciaravino. Dave Revsine said, with a hint of incredulity, "I'm not sure if this lineup has played together all year" It didn't go well, as USC outscored us 18-9 to tie the game. And Smith was the weak link. It indicates where the freshmen stand with their coach. When Windham was on the court for NU (5:23) USC scored 7 points. When Smith was on the court (13:09) USC scored 31 points.

Lastly, the fortunes of Angelo Ciaravino and Justin Mullins have undergone seismic shifts since Barnhizer was eliminated from the lineup. Ciaravino had become the 5th starter and that group was killing it. Mullins had been benched entirely for 2 games and hadn't played well in any of the 7 games since the loss at Penn State. He seemed to be sinking into the abyss.

And then Barnhizer got hurt. Mullins and Ciaravino were going to have to take those minutes, defending bigger players, rebounding, scoring. Somebody else (Leach) was going to be running the offense.
Mullins got a chance to hit the reset button. Ciaravino got asked to step up his play. Both got practice time as prospective starters in a Barnhizer-less lineup. The first game against Wisconsin, Ciaravino wilted. Even though the team was +1 when he was in the game, he personally scored a -7.32, primarily due to an 0 for 6 shooting effort and 1 rebound in 20 minutes. Mullins didn't fare much better (NU was -15 when he was playing, but almost all of that was with Fitzmorris). After two turnovers in the first 1:39 against USC, Ciaravino essentially turned the 5th starter's spot over to Mullins. When Collins had Mullins start the 2nd half, he responded with the best half of his NU career. He and Martinelli played all 20 minutes - with Mullins earning a Player Rating of +3.93 to Martinelli's +1.63.

We'll see what happens next. Hopefully Mullins is in a much better place mentally and can capitalize on his success. It would be nice if Angelo Ciaravino would just relax and play. I'm not worried about that with KJ Windham, who just needs more minutes. Blake Smith only in case of emergency, please.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Blake glass in case of emergency

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

The most shocking comment from Musselman's short press conference was Slajchert's +/- was minus 10 and they were getting shredded on D while he was in there. I could not believe it, but when you look at the beginning of the 2nd half USC lost 26-16.

 

[CappyNU]

The most shocking comment from Musselman's short press conference was Slajchert's +/- was minus 10 and they were getting shredded on D while he was in there. I could not believe it, but when you look at the beginning of the 2nd half USC lost 26-16.

Was actually 28-16 on in 17 possessions over the first 11 minutes, so yeah, they were getting absolutely cooked out there. Then they put Agbo in for Slajchert and went +7 over the next 5 and a half minutes (15 points in 8 possessions for them, 8 points in 9 possessions for us) before they brought Slajchert back in. Didn't help that Martinelli missed the front end of two 1-and-1s in that stretch.

 

[loyolacat]

PWB not to be mistaken with PBR....thanks for these break downs and interpretations...enjoyable.......I watched Groundhog Day the other day and am I wrong or does this seem to be an NU situation every year....sometime during the B10 season there is a significant injury and our bench does not seem ready? My point is that CC does not place much of a premium on getting non starters ready to go during the non-con. Often plays starters down to the nub in games that are well in hand....It would seem that with the grind of the B10 you would do well to plan ahead

 

[Hungry Jack]

Watching Illinois vs. Rutgers last night reminded me that 1) even good teams struggle offensively when the outside shots won't fall 2) injuries happen to all teams (Ivisic rolled an ankle last night and could not continue, Harper returned last nigh (and put up 25!)). We aren't the only team beset by these problems. It's college ball.

 

[loyolacat]

exactly...so plan for it.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

PWB not to be mistaken with PBR....thanks for these break downs and interpretations...enjoyable.......I watched Groundhog Day the other day and am I wrong or does this seem to be an NU situation every year....sometime during the B10 season there is a significant injury and our bench does not seem ready? My point is that CC does not place much of a premium on getting non starters ready to go during the non-con. Often plays starters down to the nub in games that are well in hand....It would seem that with the grind of the B10 you would do well to plan ahead

I would not disagree with your assessment.
Its a tough decision for coaches.
One mindset is "Win by as much as you can - You have to impress the computers"
The other is "Win and try to get some young guys experience"

I prefer the latter approach, but thats mainly because I assume injuries will happen and practice only gets you part of what a young player needs to perform well in actual games. I feel the same way about evaluating your roster. What works or doesn't work in intrasquad scrimmages doesn't tell you all that much about what will work against completely different personnel (and coaching philosophies).

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The most shocking comment from Musselman's short press conference was Slajchert's +/- was minus 10 and they were getting shredded on D while he was in there. I could not believe it, but when you look at the beginning of the 2nd half USC lost 26-16.

That is very interesting. I don't run the opposing +/- numbers, but somebody else on this board had mentioned that Slajchert was a defensive liability - and you could see where he would be - but Musselman citing it after he led USC in scoring is probably just covering his own ass as to why Slajchert is sitting on his bench instead of playing.

On the other hand, he cited Slajchert's +/- as an indication of his performance, so I'm pleased.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

exactly...so plan for it.

There is no planning for losing 2/3 of your best players for the season.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

There is no planning for losing 2/3 of your best players for the season.

I agree. Barney and Leach didn’t get injured because they played more minutes that some of us would have liked against DePaul. I find that thinking absurd.

As far as getting the bench more minutes, how many blow out victories did we have and who would have suddenly been ready for a major role had they got those 2 additional minutes per game? You don’t need to be Red Auerbach to see the Freshman weren’t close to ready on the defensive end at the start of the season. They still aren’t but they are better. They learn way more in practice than mop up duty in a blow out. The wizard is working with them.

The issue with this team has always been depth. We have 5 players that would have been in the rotation of good B1G teams. I expect one or both of our Frosh to have a break our scoring game before the end of the season. KJ will have to play as he is the only true guard on the roster. Somebody besides Nick and Ty have to shoot the ball. Predictably, the calls for why weren’t they playing in November will ring from the rafters.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

I agree. Barney and Leach didn’t get injured because they played more minutes that some of us would have liked against DePaul. I find that thinking absurd.

As far as getting the bench more minutes, how many blow out victories did we have and who would have suddenly been ready for a major role had they got those 2 additional minutes per game? You don’t need to be Red Auerbach to see the Freshman weren’t close to ready on the defensive end at the start of the season. They still aren’t but they are better. They learn way more in practice than mop up duty in a blow out. The wizard is working with them.

The issue with this team has always been depth. We have 5 players that would have been in the rotation of good B1G teams. I expect one or both of our Frosh to have a break our scoring game before the end of the season. KJ will have to play as he is the only true guard on the roster. Somebody besides Nick and Ty have to shoot the ball. Predictably, the calls for why weren’t they playing in November will ring from the rafters.

At the start of the season, this team was realistically had the potential to be a solid bubble team, with a ceiling dependent on consistent performances from key players like Nick and Brooks. They needed heavy production from particularly Leach and Berry, who have recently been providing much needed shooting from deep to space the floor and create opportunities for the entire offense. As well as Leach ability to drive and create for others.

However, the freshman class hasn’t yet shown the skill level to log significant minutes on a tournament-caliber team. That’s not fair to expect that of them either. Combine that with preseason injuries, the loss of your two primary ball-handlers, and 3 players who missed essential offseason training, and it became clear this season would be an uphill battle.

The reality is that bench players rarely develop into reliable contributors during the regular season, especially not in the context of a tournament-caliber team. Development happens in the offseason, not in spot minutes during garbage time. Giving bench players 2 minutes a game doesn’t really help them develop at the level needed for postseason play. This team has relied heavily on the starting five, it needed to, and it’s a tough situation when you lose your best players, especially when you're down to 2 out of 3 top guys. The injuries have compounded the challenge, but the team's lack of depth has made it even harder to maintain any semblance of consistency.

In terms of getting the bench ready to contribute in such a short period, the task is daunting. Was Smith supposed to develop into a B1G level starter? Mullins has shown improvement, but did we expect him to make an even bigger jump? The tough reality is that bad luck and lack of depth aren’t a good combination for any program, especially in a highly competitive league like the Big Ten.

Looking ahead to next season, there's significant potential on the roster, but we’ll have to temper expectations. NU’s recruiting strategy often focuses on developmental players (out of necessity) who take 1-3 years to really adjust to the physicality and speed of the Big Ten. So, let’s not get overly worked up next season if the incoming freshmen’s minutes are limited or their production isn’t quite there right away. It’s a process, and patience will be key. I am looking forward to seeing more flashes from the current freshmen as this season continues and hope to see some of it realized next season. Martinelli is a baller and will continue to be fun to watch as well.

 

[GatoLouco]

KJ will have to play as he is the only true guard on the roster. Somebody besides Nick and Ty have to shoot the ball. Predictably, the calls for why weren’t they playing in November will ring from the rafters.

Right now it's not just about who has to play, it's also about a different attitude and aggressiveness on the part of some players. Coach will do his part communicating different expectations. We could see that in the last game when Berry (also Mullins) was being a lot more aggressive than just being a spot up shooter. He was actively looking to drive to the basket.

 

[TheC]

At the start of the season, this team was realistically had the potential to be a solid bubble team, with a ceiling dependent on consistent performances from key players like Nick and Brooks. They needed heavy production from particularly Leach and Berry, who have recently been providing much needed shooting from deep to space the floor and create opportunities for the entire offense. As well as Leach ability to drive and create for others.

However, the freshman class hasn’t yet shown the skill level to log significant minutes on a tournament-caliber team. That’s not fair to expect that of them either. Combine that with preseason injuries, the loss of your two primary ball-handlers, and 3 players who missed essential offseason training, and it became clear this season would be an uphill battle.

The reality is that bench players rarely develop into reliable contributors during the regular season, especially not in the context of a tournament-caliber team. Development happens in the offseason, not in spot minutes during garbage time. Giving bench players 2 minutes a game doesn’t really help them develop at the level needed for postseason play. This team has relied heavily on the starting five, it needed to, and it’s a tough situation when you lose your best players, especially when you're down to 2 out of 3 top guys. The injuries have compounded the challenge, but the team's lack of depth has made it even harder to maintain any semblance of consistency.

In terms of getting the bench ready to contribute in such a short period, the task is daunting. Was Smith supposed to develop into a B1G level starter? Mullins has shown improvement, but did we expect him to make an even bigger jump? The tough reality is that bad luck and lack of depth aren’t a good combination for any program, especially in a highly competitive league like the Big Ten.

Looking ahead to next season, there's significant potential on the roster, but we’ll have to temper expectations. NU’s recruiting strategy often focuses on developmental players (out of necessity) who take 1-3 years to really adjust to the physicality and speed of the Big Ten. So, let’s not get overly worked up next season if the incoming freshmen’s minutes are limited or their production isn’t quite there right away. It’s a process, and patience will be key. I am looking forward to seeing more flashes from the current freshmen as this season continues and hope to see some of it realized next season. Martinelli is a baller and will continue to be fun to watch as well.

I don't care so much about getting young guys experience. What has always bothered me about CCC's style, though, is that he doesn't ever give his top line guys rest in the second half. Maybe a lot of college teams do it this way and it isn't a problem. I don't follow the others closely. But I never understood why he wouldn't sub out his stars for a couple minutes around a tv timeout to allow them to rest their legs and keep some energy in reserve for the final stretch. He does it sometimes in the first half, but never the second half when I'd think they'd need it the most. I always wondered if that was part of why we couldn't close so many close games.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I would not disagree with your assessment.
Its a tough decision for coaches.
One mindset is "Win by as much as you can - You have to impress the computers"
The other is "Win and try to get some young guys experience"

I prefer the latter approach, but thats mainly because I assume injuries will happen and practice only gets you part of what a young player needs to perform well in actual games. I feel the same way about evaluating your roster. What works or doesn't work in intrasquad scrimmages doesn't tell you all that much about what will work against completely different personnel (and coaching philosophies).

You just don’t intentionally give up wins for the sake of developing players. You have to be very darn sure a starter will get injured if that’s the case, and that’s unpredictable. A business does not intentionally overspend/underperform because it hires extra people just in case more people leave than expected.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

I don't care so much about getting young guys experience. What has always bothered me about CCC's style, though, is that he doesn't ever give his top line guys rest in the second half. Maybe a lot of college teams do it this way and it isn't a problem. I don't follow the others closely. But I never understood why he wouldn't sub out his stars for a couple minutes around a tv timeout to allow them to rest their legs and keep some energy in reserve for the final stretch. He does it sometimes in the first half, but never the second half when I'd think they'd need it the most. I always wondered if that was part of why we couldn't close so many close games.

Take a look at the tight nature of the games this season, and look at the level of depth. This team has less depth than the past two seasons, and that’s a major factor in their struggles. When your primary players (like Buie, Brooks, Audige, and Martinelli) are the ones orchestrating the offense, facilitating ball movement, or creating opportunities for others, it's incredibly difficult to get them off the floor without seeing a significant drop-off in production. The absence of reliable bench contributors who can step in and maintain a solid level of play is a problem.

In basketball, depth is a critical asset because the game is a series of runs. A few bad possessions or missed shots can quickly snowball into a double-digit deficit, especially if your top players are forced to sit for extended minutes. When you don't have capable substitutes who can hold the fort, you run the risk of losing momentum, which is often irrecoverable in the second half. A team without depth is vulnerable to those game-changing runs that can completely shift the dynamic of a contest when the starters are on the bench.

Looking at this team as well as past teams, who steps in to give the key players a breather while still maintaining a competitive level? That’s where the challenge lies. A lack of solid contributors off the bench means the starters are forced to play longer minutes. Often times a tired starter has been better than a fresh bench player. Better to get the rest in the 1st half when you have more time to recover from an opponent scoring run. There’s also a ton of tv timeouts and stops in action especially at the end of close games. Lots of time to get rest there.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Take a look at the tight nature of the games this season, and look at the level of depth. This team has less depth than the past two seasons, and that’s a major factor in their struggles. When your primary players (like Buie, Brooks, Audige, and Martinelli) are the ones orchestrating the offense, facilitating ball movement, or creating opportunities for others, it's incredibly difficult to get them off the floor without seeing a significant drop-off in production. The absence of reliable bench contributors who can step in and maintain a solid level of play is a problem.

In basketball, depth is a critical asset because the game is a series of runs. A few bad possessions or missed shots can quickly snowball into a double-digit deficit, especially if your top players are forced to sit for extended minutes. When you don't have capable substitutes who can hold the fort, you run the risk of losing momentum, which is often irrecoverable in the second half. A team without depth is vulnerable to those game-changing runs that can completely shift the dynamic of a contest when the starters are on the bench.

Looking at this team as well as past teams, who steps in to give the key players a breather while still maintaining a competitive level? That’s where the challenge lies. A lack of solid contributors off the bench means the starters are forced to play longer minutes. Often times a tired starter has been better than a fresh bench player. Better to get the rest in the 1st half when you have more time to recover from an opponent scoring run. There’s also a ton of tv timeouts and stops in action especially at the end of close games. Lots of time to get rest there.

100%. I would give multiple likes if I could.

 

[Davidgolds5]

100%. I would give multiple likes if I could.

I’m certain we would have lost more games this year and the last couple years if we had rested the starters more. We have been barely getting to 12-8 last Couple years. Could have easily been 9-11 if things were handled differently. We rarely seem to win comfortably, which necessitates best players being in. The talent level from Nicholson to Hunger is huge. You can say that for all the guys who play all the minutes.