Do we need 1 more win to clinch a bid

[hdhntr1]

I'm very concerned about Iowa because we just don't match up well against them. They are a team of shooters and slashers, without a big man in the middle. They were in a fairly close dame with OSU until Iowa hit 4 threes in a row just before the half, so we need to figure out something a little bit different on defense.

While you are correct that we don't match up well against them, at least we play them at our place as on the road they score almost 20 fewer points per game. Not saying that they are not dangerous and difficult to beat, Just that it is no where near as daunting a task as when they are in Iowa City

 

[No Chores]

While you are correct that we don't match up well against them, at least we play them at our place as on the road they score almost 20 fewer points per game. Not saying that they are not dangerous and difficult to beat, Just that it is no where near as daunting a task as when they are in Iowa City

Yep. I'm counting on the home court advantage as well!

 

[Alaskawildkat]

We have done enough IFF we win one more game. Does not have to be a top opponent as we have enough of them and if we had had the streak that we have had at the end of the season instead of the middle, we would be in great shape. Even if the 10 wins were more spread out with a couple of them coming between now and the end of the season, we would probably be fine. But because they are all behind us.....We need the one more win because if we limp into selection Sunday losing 5-6 in a row, there is the chance that they could discount the value of those victories. Recency bias is a real thing

Ah, the fifty-percenters have spoken.


"You are 99% correct, but hopefully we will never know the answer to the question of whether one more win would have been needed.

Right now that 1% feels like 50% to those who feel Northwestern doesn't get nice post season things."

 

[hdhntr1]

Ah, the fifty-percenters have spoken.


"You are 99% correct, but hopefully we will never know the answer to the question of whether one more win would have been needed.

Right now that 1% feels like 50% to those who feel Northwestern doesn't get nice post season things."

It is the reality of the situation. One more and even a losing streak can't derail us as we would have 20 wins and a winning conference record and likely a top half position. Don't win another and we would go into selection Sunday on a 6 game skid (including BTT) If our Net etc ratings are still in the mid 40s now after what we have already done, a skid at this point could still knock us out

 

[AdamOnFirst]

It seems like we'd have a shot at a big with no more wins, but my sense is that 1 more win would clinch it.

Maybe. 5 game losing streaks are dicey. It at least becomes sort of a sweat again even if we’d still likely be in.

 

[SmellyCat]

I think NU is already in, even with a losing streak (though we'll be nervous that day and may have to play in Dayton). However, NU needs enough regular-season wins to get the double-bye for the Big Ten tournament, which means probably two more wins, especially as they have the tiebreaker over Indiana. Four of the five games (Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers) are against teams also in contention for the double-bye, so beating any of them (especially Iowa/Rutgers, who have the tiebreaker over NU already) would especially help them in BTT seeding.

I want them healthy and rested into the NCAAs and not hobbled from playing four games in four days or something .

Obviously, the preference is to win enough to pass Purdue in the standings, and then you know they'll have everything they need - double-bye, a high ranking, the regular-season crown, and then hopefully the BTT crown and a #3 seed in the NCAAs. Hell, if they end the season not on a six-game losing streak but instead on 12-game winning streak, I think you're then talking about a #2 seed. Dare to dream!

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

This is such a Northwestern thread. 🙄

 

[iubaseball]

For me, it's just a nod to the fact that the remaining games are tough and everyone is shooting for NU now. Does NU have the secret cause to win out or even get 4 of 5? Maybe. But as a long time NU fan, I recognize that 2 more home wins is a historic season and should not be seen as falling short.
NU's defense is something very few teams playing in the Big Dance have encountered and could take the team deep into the tournament. NU needs to get there and make some noise.

Fo you have all home games left? You guys have been at home forever.

 

[iubaseball]

Fo you have all home games left? You guys have been at home forever.

Meant Do not fo

 

[phatcat]

Fo you have all home games left? You guys have been at home forever.

2 home 3 away

 

[Eurocat]

I think we need two more wins to be secure. 99 percent secure.

Three more wins would make us 100 percent.

I'm sorry but just one more win would give us a losing record in the big ten assuming one loss is in the tournament. Just one more is not enough and two more is 99 percent.

 

[phatcat]

I think we need two more wins to be secure. 99 percent secure.

Three more wins would make us 100 percent.

I'm sorry but just one more win would give us a losing record in the big ten assuming one loss is in the tournament. Just one more is not enough and two more is 99 percent.

We have 10 wins w 6 left, incl BTT. Win one and we are 11-9 plus the obligatory loss in BTT. So, not a losing record

 

[ParisCat]

The whole “weak OOC schedule” argument is a bit unfair, in my view, in part because we don’t have total control of how good our OOC opponents turn out to be. We played 2 very good teams in the Cancun tournament, handily beating one and losing to the other by 1 point. We played a local P6 team — DePaul — that turned out to be bad, but nobody’s arguing that we shouldn’t regularly play DePaul. We were matched up in the Gavitt Games, not by choice, against a Georgetown team that turned out to be very bad. Our other “forced” matchup, against Pitt, turned out to be a blowout loss against a very good team. We played 3 local schools that all turned out to be bad — UIC, Chicago State, NIU — but everyone rightly encourages us to play local schools. What local schools should we have played instead? Loyola? They’re terrible. Notre Dame? Not much better. There were only 3 “questionable” matchups — PVAM, IPFW, and Brown — but it’s not like UCLA, UNC, and Gonzaga were beating down the doors to schedule a home-and-home against us. In short, we only have so much control over who we play, and no control over how good they turn out to be.

 

[NYPurpleFan]

I'm as big a pessimist as any, but 1 more win and NU is an absolute lock.

We have a pristine record on everything the tourney looks at: above .500 in conference, zero bad losses, strength on the road (even with 3 more road losses), multiple "great" wins, probably in top 20 in country in Quad 1 wins. We will be fine.

 

[Titanium999]

I think NU is already in, even with a losing streak (though we'll be nervous that day and may have to play in Dayton). However, NU needs enough regular-season wins to get the double-bye for the Big Ten tournament, which means probably two more wins, especially as they have the tiebreaker over Indiana. Four of the five games (Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers) are against teams also in contention for the double-bye, so beating any of them (especially Iowa/Rutgers, who have the tiebreaker over NU already) would especially help them in BTT seeding.

I want them healthy and rested into the NCAAs and not hobbled from playing four games in four days or something .

Obviously, the preference is to win enough to pass Purdue in the standings, and then you know they'll have everything they need - double-bye, a high ranking, the regular-season crown, and then hopefully the BTT crown and a #3 seed in the NCAAs. Hell, if they end the season not on a six-game losing streak but instead on 12-game winning streak, I think you're then talking about a #2 seed. Dare to dream!

What is the double bye?

 

[phatcat]

I'm as big a pessimist as any, but 1 more win and NU is an absolute lock.

We have a pristine record on everything the tourney looks at: above .500 in conference, zero bad losses, strength on the road (even with 3 more road losses), multiple "great" wins, probably in top 20 in country in Quad 1 wins. We will be fine.

Agreed. One more should do it. I simply fear the long losing streak.

 

[Deeringfish]

Agreed. One more should do it. I simply fear the long losing streak.

Yeah. As much as I want to win today, if the BB Gods are only going to allow one more win I'd rather it be later in the season.

 

[nucatnap]

NU I believe, has already proven to be a tourney bound team. But they still need wins to move up seed position Better seed, easier opponents(at least in theory). I believe at this time they are an 7-8 seed with the possibility of a 4-5 depending on how this season plays out.

 

[hdhntr1]

Fo you have all home games left? You guys have been at home forever.

We had two home games in a row. Not sure what your definition of forever is

 

[hdhntr1]

I think we need two more wins to be secure. 99 percent secure.

Three more wins would make us 100 percent.

I'm sorry but just one more win would give us a losing record in the big ten assuming one loss is in the tournament. Just one more is not enough and two more is 99 percent.

No it would not. 1 more win would give us 11-9 record so the worst we could do including BTT would be 11-10

 

[hdhntr1]

What is the double bye?

On day one of BTT the bottom teams basically have a play in game The top 10 teams will have gotten a bye on day one. On day two, a second round of sort of play in games where four more games are played (teams 5-10 and the winners of two play in games. (temas 1-4 will have another day off or bye) Then in day three, those winners play against teams one through four in the conference. Basically teams one through four do not play till day three (Fri) in the quarter finals. THey will have received a bye for day one and another bye for day two.

 

[hdhntr1]

I think NU is already in, even with a losing streak (though we'll be nervous that day and may have to play in Dayton). However, NU needs enough regular-season wins to get the double-bye for the Big Ten tournament, which means probably two more wins, especially as they have the tiebreaker over Indiana. Four of the five games (Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers) are against teams also in contention for the double-bye, so beating any of them (especially Iowa/Rutgers, who have the tiebreaker over NU already) would especially help them in BTT seeding.

I want them healthy and rested into the NCAAs and not hobbled from playing four games in four days or something .

Obviously, the preference is to win enough to pass Purdue in the standings, and then you know they'll have everything they need - double-bye, a high ranking, the regular-season crown, and then hopefully the BTT crown and a #3 seed in the NCAAs. Hell, if they end the season not on a six-game losing streak but instead on 12-game winning streak, I think you're then talking about a #2 seed. Dare to dream!

If they were also ranked in the 20-25 range, you would likely be correct as even with a losing streak, they would still likely be ranked in the low 40s. . The issue is that even with all that they have accomplished this year they are still only ranked in the 40s so an extended losing streak could push then into the 60s and that is no bueno. Throw in that it could lead to a losing overall record in BIG, less than 20 wins and the committee would have all the excuse they would need to exclude us.

But win one more and all that changes. Winning record in conference no matter what., 20 wins and likely top half finish in a conference that is likely to get close to 9 bids and it becomes very hard to deny us.

 

[No Chores]

On day one of BTT the bottom teams basically have a play in game The top 10 teams will have gotten a bye on day one. On day two, a second wound of sort of play in games where four more games are played (teams 5-10 and the winners of two play in games. (temas 1-4 will have another day off or bye) Then in day three, those winners play against teams one through four in the conference. Basically teams one through four do not play till day three (Fri) in the quarter finals. THey will have received a bye for day one and another bye for day two.

Yes, and these are true byes, as opposed to being idle during the football season.

 

[Titanium999]

On day one of BTT the bottom teams basically have a play in game The top 10 teams will have gotten a bye on day one. On day two, a second round of sort of play in games where four more games are played (teams 5-10 and the winners of two play in games. (temas 1-4 will have another day off or bye) Then in day three, those winners play against teams one through four in the conference. Basically teams one through four do not play till day three (Fri) in the quarter finals. THey will have received a bye for day one and another bye for day two.

Wow! Let’s get the double bye! Lots to play for! Starts tonight! A win 🥇 tonight and we are In everyone’s top 16!

 

[hdhntr1]

I think NU is already in, even with a losing streak (though we'll be nervous that day and may have to play in Dayton). However, NU needs enough regular-season wins to get the double-bye for the Big Ten tournament, which means probably two more wins, especially as they have the tiebreaker over Indiana. Four of the five games (Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers) are against teams also in contention for the double-bye, so beating any of them (especially Iowa/Rutgers, who have the tiebreaker over NU already) would especially help them in BTT seeding.

I want them healthy and rested into the NCAAs and not hobbled from playing four games in four days or something .

Obviously, the preference is to win enough to pass Purdue in the standings, and then you know they'll have everything they need - double-bye, a high ranking, the regular-season crown, and then hopefully the BTT crown and a #3 seed in the NCAAs. Hell, if they end the season not on a six-game losing streak but instead on 12-game winning streak, I think you're then talking about a #2 seed. Dare to dream!

Now with the win over IA, we are as that gives a guaranteed wining record in the BIG. Also 20 wins. but still more work to make this best season ever. Want to see us get to second weekend or farther