Does Northwestern Qualify for the NCAA Tourney with a Winning Record?

[Alaskawildkat]

Definitely a theoretical question, but Coach Collins recent comment that the only post season game NU would play in this year would be the NCAA Tournament. That got me to questioning, should lighting strike do the Wildcats qualify having had a winning record?

 

[Max_Power]

NU kept Indiana out and that may be all we get.

 

[MC_Cat]

NU kept Indiana out and that may be all we get.

We pass on Crown good luck Hoosiers go get that banner!!!

 

[MC_Cat]

Well no Hoosiers either:

Indiana Will Not Take Part In College Basketball Crown; Season And Mike Woodson Era Is Over

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The 2024-25 Indiana men’s basketball season, and the Mike Woodson coaching regime, is over. Indiana was not selected for the 68-team NCAA To

www.si.com

 

[EagerFan]

"Indiana has only been in the NCAA Tournament two times since 2016."

So NU has been to the tourney more than Indiana since 2016? Wild.

 

[stpaulcat]

Given the refs this year, they deserve it.

 

[Davidgolds5]

we were the second lowest Kenpom team to not make the tournament.
Ohio State 39
NU 45
1-46 outside of NU and OSU all made the tournament.

 

[hdhntr1]

NU kept Indiana out and that may be all we get.

dOSU as well

 

[Hungry Jack]

Had we held on vs Iowa and Nebby, and pulled off the game vs Michigan or UCLA, we make it.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Had we held on vs Iowa and Nebby, and pulled off the game vs Michigan or UCLA, we make it.

If the Queen had balls, she would be the King!

 

[loyolacat]

14 SEC teams!. Anyone know what the Big10 record was in head to head non-cons with the SEC? But the losses to Dayton and Butler had to factor in. But making the dance has become the metric by which we judge a season a success and that just takes away from evaluating the season on lots of other factors. NU probably overachieved after the injuries. had a team that just played hard, got to see the development of some of the young kids, ate too much stale popcorn. some great wins and really tough losses...but being disappointed that we are not in the dance is probably just a sign that this team was well liked and we wanted to see the journey continue.
To me the regular season should be the most important factor....If you want to prove you belong in the tournament prove it by a at least competitive non-con schedule and showing up during your conference season by at least winning half of your games. The Conference tournaments are really just a joke...a tv money maker...a chance for fans to travel...etc.

 

[macarthur31]

SEC had six teams sporting sub .500 conference records earn bids to March Madness.

• Texas (kp44) went 6-12 in conference play and are in Dayton for a "First Four" tilt vs Big East's Xavier
• Oklahoma (kp38) went 6-12 in conference play and grabbed a 9 seed. They will face UConn.
• Vandy (kp49) went 8-10, and the 'Dores nabbed a 10 seed and will face St. Mary's (7)
• Arkansas (kp40) went 8-10, and the 'backs also took a 10 seed. They get the Jayhawks (7)
• Georgia (kp34) went 8-10, and the 'dawgs ended up with the 9. They get the Zags (8)
• Miss. State (kp32) went 8-10, and those 'dawgs pulled the 8, they tilt with Baylor (9).

While this seems on its face, egregious considering the mental model of "gotta be at least .500 in conference to qualify", kenpom considered the SEC a class of its own with regards to conferences by Net Rating (which this would be the efficiency of a team expected to go .500 in conference play):

1. SEC +22.03 (This is the highest ever rating for any conference during kenpom era - since '97)
2. B1G +17.93
3. XII +17.15
4. Big East +13.51
5. ACC +9.46
6. Mountain West +8.38

Northwestern was +16.18 in Net Rating, which means in the aggregate they were closer to a 10-10 conference team than their record 7-13 showed.

However, even if you flip the road loss to Iowa (30 foot buzzer beater) and home loss to UCLA (Nick non-call) to get us to 9-11, we'd be in OSU/Indiana territory and likely get left off. They would probably even do the thing they did to West Virginia, where they cited injured players as a negative on their campaign.

 

[hdhntr1]

we were the second lowest Kenpom team to not make the tournament.
Ohio State 39
NU 45
1-46 outside of NU and OSU all made the tournament.

During the seeding broadcast the other day saw (could not hear as I was at Heath Club) saw Indiana and dOSU as last four out with IND rated as 41 (I think) and OSU rated as 54 (whatever ranking system that they were using). Thought the BIG got a little screwed as they put Texas in as last four in when over 87% of the conference got bids (14 of 16). SEC is good this year but that is a bit ridiculous Texas and Oklahoma had 6-12 conference records and four other teams got in with 8-10 conference records while a 10-10 Indiana did not get in.

According to Kenprom, there were 4 teams rated less than 49 that did not get in and three of them were BIG teams. dOSU at 39, Northwestern at 45 and Indiana at 48 while Texas at 44 and Vandy at 49 were in. BIG got screwed

 

[hdhntr1]

SEC had six teams sporting sub .500 conference records earn bids to March Madness.

• Texas (kp44) went 6-12 in conference play and are in Dayton for a "First Four" tilt vs Big East's Xavier
• Oklahoma (kp38) went 6-12 in conference play and grabbed a 9 seed. They will face UConn.
• Vandy (kp49) went 8-10, and the 'Dores nabbed a 10 seed and will face St. Mary's (7)
• Arkansas (kp40) went 8-10, and the 'backs also took a 10 seed. They get the Jayhawks (7)
• Georgia (kp34) went 8-10, and the 'dawgs ended up with the 9. They get the Zags (8)
• Miss. State (kp32) went 8-10, and those 'dawgs pulled the 8, they tilt with Baylor (9).

While this seems on its face, egregious considering the mental model of "gotta be at least .500 in conference to qualify", kenpom considered the SEC a class of its own with regards to conferences by Net Rating (which this would be the efficiency of a team expected to go .500 in conference play):

1. SEC +22.03
2. B1G +17.93
3. XII +17.15
4. Big East +13.51
5. ACC +9.46
6. Mountain West +8.38

Northwestern was +16.18 in Net Rating, which means in the aggregate they were closer to a 10-10 conference team than their record 7-13 showed.

However, even if you flip the road loss to Iowa (30 foot buzzer beater) and home loss to UCLA (Nick non-call) to get us to 9-11, we'd be in OSU/Indiana territory and likely get left off. They would probably even do the thing they did to West Virginia, where they cited injured players as a negative on their campaign.

It wasn't that those teams were sub 500 in conference but TX and OK were 6-12 whereas 500 team in BIG was left out.

Probably easier to flip IA, PSU and Mich losses than the one to UCLA as there were easy paths to victory whereas UCL was a path to a tie. And would our Kenprom rating be higher than 39 if those were wins? May have been a similar fate but would have been harder to justify and we won games down the stretch after the injuries,

SEC got ridiculous treatment, Face it, pretty ridiculous to give bids to over 87% of a conference including teams that lost 67% of their conference games. By comparison the BIG got screwed

 

[hdhntr1]

Definitely a theoretical question, but Coach Collins recent comment that the only post season game NU would play in this year would be the NCAA Tournament. That got me to questioning, should lighting strike do the Wildcats qualify having had a winning record?

Only if they were in the SEC

 

[macarthur31]

It wasn't that those teams were sub 500 in conference but TX and OK were 6-12 whereas 500 team in BIG was left out.

Probably easier to flip IA, PSU and Mich losses than the one to UCLA as there were easy paths to victory whereas UCL was a path to a tie. And would our Kenprom rating be higher than 39 if those were wins? May have been a similar fate but would have been harder to justify and we won games down the stretch after the injuries,

SEC got ridiculous treatment, Face it, pretty ridiculous to give bids to over 87% of a conference including teams that lost 67% of their conference games. By comparison the BIG got screwed

PSU was definitely outlier given Ace Baldwin is still in a gym shooting free throws on fouls called from that game in December. Michigan is still closer to UCLA in "toss-up" as Leach staying in game doesn't guarantee victory, and that Michigan has shown to be nails in 5 points or less decided games, West Virginia also won games after their best player got injured, yet that was cited as a key reason they were lesser prioritized.

Agree that it's unusual for a team to get 14 out of 16 bids - but looking at those 6 sub.500 conference SEC teams (school, seed, conf record, kenpom ranking, net rating):

• Mississippi State (8), 8-10, kp32, +20.10
• Georgia (9), 8-10, kp34, +19.39
• Arkansas (10), 8-10, kp40, +17.71
• Vanderbilt (10), 8-10, kp49, +16.16
• Oklahoma (9), 6-12, kp38, +18.36
• Texas (11), 6-12, kp44, +17.15 - has to play in Dayton v. Xavier.

For perspective:

• Indiana, 10-10, kp48, +16.18
• OSU, 9-11, kp39, +18.29
• Rutgers, 8-12, kp75, +10.74
• Northwestern, 7-13, kp45, +16.42

and then when you compare the cellars of both leagues:

SEC's worst two kenpom teams were:

• South Carolina: 2-16, kp69, +11.48
• LSU: 3-15, kp88, +8.65

B1G's worst two kenpom teams were:

• Minnesota, 7-13, kp90, +8.44
• Washington, 4-16, kp109, +5.03

There's a path to seeing how those six SEC got the nods.

 

[EagerFan]

So you're saying there is no reason Vandy and Texas should have gotten in over Indiana and OSU?

 

[Secho99]

During the seeding broadcast the other day saw (could not hear as I was at Heath Club) saw Indiana and dOSU as last four out with IND rated as 41 (I think) and OSU rated as 54 (whatever ranking system that they were using). Thought the BIG got a little screwed as they put Texas in as last four in when over 87% of the conference got bids (14 of 16). SEC is good this year but that is a bit ridiculous Texas and Oklahoma had 6-12 conference records and four other teams got in with 8-10 conference records while a 10-10 Indiana did not get in.

The short answer is the committee doesn’t consider conference record or conference standings. And they don’t consider how many bids they’re giving to a conference. They looks at all the games you play. Obviously if you play in a good league you’ll have a lot of opportunities to pick up impressive wins but if you’re a bubble team you’ll also likely lose a lot to top-tier teams. Oklahoma is in because they were 13-0 in non-con and beat Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. Then they won just enough SEC games to have a complete enough resume. Indiana had a win at MSU and a win at home vs Purdue and nothing else of note.

 

[hdhntr1]

So you're saying there is no reason Vandy and Texas should have gotten in over Indiana and OSU?

One could be justified but both?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

PSU was definitely outlier given Ace Baldwin is still in a gym shooting free throws on fouls called from that game in December. Michigan is still closer to UCLA in "toss-up" as Leach staying in game doesn't guarantee victory, and that Michigan has shown to be nails in 5 points or less decided games, West Virginia also won games after their best player got injured, yet that was cited as a key reason they were lesser prioritized.

Agree that it's unusual for a team to get 14 out of 16 bids - but looking at those 6 sub.500 conference SEC teams (school, seed, conf record, kenpom ranking, net rating):

• Mississippi State (8), 8-10, kp32, +20.10
• Georgia (9), 8-10, kp34, +19.39
• Arkansas (10), 8-10, kp40, +17.71
• Vanderbilt (10), 8-10, kp49, +16.16
• Oklahoma (9), 6-12, kp38, +18.36
• Texas (11), 6-12, kp44, +17.15 - has to play in Dayton v. Xavier.

For perspective:

• Indiana, 10-10, kp48, +16.18
• OSU, 9-11, kp39, +18.29
• Rutgers, 8-12, kp75, +10.74
• Northwestern, 7-13, kp45, +16.42

and then when you compare the cellars of both leagues:

SEC's worst two kenpom teams were:

• South Carolina: 2-16, kp69, +11.48
• LSU: 3-15, kp88, +8.65

B1G's worst two kenpom teams were:

• Minnesota, 7-13, kp90, +8.44
• Washington, 4-16, kp109, +5.03

There's a path to seeing how those six SEC got the nods.

Yep, I got no problem with this. All of those 8-11 seed SEC teams would be favorites to beat the Big Teams that were passed by.

 

[hoosboot]

Yep, I got no problem with this. All of those 8-11 seed SEC teams would be favorites to beat the Big Teams that were passed by.

I'm a little surprised with Ohio State beating both Kentucky and Texas in actual games that they didn't get in ahead of Texas, particularly since they have a higher KP rating as well.

 

[EagerFan]

Sure OSU thumped Kentucky by 20.
Sure OSU beat Texas convincingly.
But OSU lost their last two games of the year.
And Texas was solidly in 13th place in the SEC, had six wins in conference, and dominant performances against Chicago State, Houston Christian, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff, They also went 5 of 13 against ranked opponents, while OSU only went 4 of 11.

Seems crystal clear to me, and OSU sucks so there is that.

 

[TheC]

PSU was definitely outlier given Ace Baldwin is still in a gym shooting free throws on fouls called from that game in December. Michigan is still closer to UCLA in "toss-up" as Leach staying in game doesn't guarantee victory, and that Michigan has shown to be nails in 5 points or less decided games, West Virginia also won games after their best player got injured, yet that was cited as a key reason they were lesser prioritized.

Agree that it's unusual for a team to get 14 out of 16 bids - but looking at those 6 sub.500 conference SEC teams (school, seed, conf record, kenpom ranking, net rating):

• Mississippi State (8), 8-10, kp32, +20.10
• Georgia (9), 8-10, kp34, +19.39
• Arkansas (10), 8-10, kp40, +17.71
• Vanderbilt (10), 8-10, kp49, +16.16
• Oklahoma (9), 6-12, kp38, +18.36
• Texas (11), 6-12, kp44, +17.15 - has to play in Dayton v. Xavier.

For perspective:

• Indiana, 10-10, kp48, +16.18
• OSU, 9-11, kp39, +18.29
• Rutgers, 8-12, kp75, +10.74
• Northwestern, 7-13, kp45, +16.42

and then when you compare the cellars of both leagues:

SEC's worst two kenpom teams were:

• South Carolina: 2-16, kp69, +11.48
• LSU: 3-15, kp88, +8.65

B1G's worst two kenpom teams were:

• Minnesota, 7-13, kp90, +8.44
• Washington, 4-16, kp109, +5.03

There's a path to seeing how those six SEC got the nods.

At some point, isn't there a feedback loop in these KP scores? I mean... how does a 7-13 team in a good conference sit at KP90 while a team at 2-16.... 2-16!! sit at KP69?? The only answer is that their KP scores are boosted by playing in the SEC which means everyone in that conference gets a boost. Oh well.... I'm almost relieved we weren't squarely on the bubble. That would have been devastating to be left out when we clearly deserved it.

That said, I think politicians should stay the hell out of this. I really hope the governor and legislature in WV don't go through with plans to sue. How silly.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

At some point, isn't there a feedback loop in these KP scores? I mean... how does a 7-13 team in a good conference sit at KP90 while a team at 2-16.... 2-16!! sit at KP69?? The only answer is that their KP scores are boosted by playing in the SEC which means everyone in that conference gets a boost. Oh well.... I'm almost relieved we weren't squarely on the bubble. That would have been devastating to be left out when we clearly deserved it.

That said, I think politicians should stay the hell out of this. I really hope the governor and legislature in WV don't go through with plans to sue. How silly.

When is the election? Great PR for the Governor.

 

[hdhntr1]

At some point, isn't there a feedback loop in these KP scores? I mean... how does a 7-13 team in a good conference sit at KP90 while a team at 2-16.... 2-16!! sit at KP69?? The only answer is that their KP scores are boosted by playing in the SEC which means everyone in that conference gets a boost. Oh well.... I'm almost relieved we weren't squarely on the bubble. That would have been devastating to be left out when we clearly deserved it.

That said, I think politicians should stay the hell out of this. I really hope the governor and legislature in WV don't go through with plans to sue. How silly.

It is really hard to understand how they are shown so much love, Yes the played in the SEC but they did not win anything there. Why would that still give them a boost? Only other thing I can think of is that because the SEC only plays 18 conference games, they get at least an extra two non con games and wins there boost their records,

 

[CappyNU]

At some point, isn't there a feedback loop in these KP scores? I mean... how does a 7-13 team in a good conference sit at KP90 while a team at 2-16.... 2-16!! sit at KP69?? The only answer is that their KP scores are boosted by playing in the SEC which means everyone in that conference gets a boost.

Because South Carolina:

Beat 5 seed Clemson at home by 3
Lost to 1 seed Auburn at home by 3
Lost to 10 seed Vandy on the road by 3
Lost to 1 seed Florida at home by 1
Lost to 8 seed Mississippi State at home by 5
Lost to 4 seed Texas A&M at home by 4
Lost to 6 seed Mississippi at home by 4
Beat 11 seed Texas at home by 15
Beat 10 seed Arkansas at home by 19 and lost on a neutral court by 4
Lost to 2 seed Tennessee on the road by 10

Kenpom and other efficiency metrics are about how you perform during games as a way to predict future performance. Since they did reasonably well in all of these games against tournament teams, their kenpom rank is higher. Since they didn't really win many games, they finished last in their conference and are sitting at home.

The SEC demolished every other conference during non conference play this year, which set up the scenario for the conference ending up with 14 teams in the tourney. Now it just remains to be seen if that dominance will continue.