Enough Michigan- let's talk Iowa

[DrVenkman]

Were iowa at full strength this year, I still wouldnt have the cajones to bet iowa unless they were getting at least 7 pts. Iowa has been a much better team in every facet of the game this year vs the last 4 or 5 years. NW has been very good as well. Winning some very tough games with a RS FR QB and an evolving offense. I look at NW front line, front 7 actually, as comparable to Illinois and Pitt. Wisky was a bit better. IMO. Right now, i wonder if anyone in the country can compare to Michigan. What they are doing- 3 straight shut-outs and a total of 14points over 5 games- just doesnt happen.
I hope Iowa can limp in and still walk out with a win. It will take their best cumulative game by far given the injury status and the fact that it is against NW, Fitz and at Ryan Field. I have seen much better Iowa teams come into Ryan Field and get handled. NW beat Iowa in both '09 and '10 and were two of the worst losses i can remember for Iowa teams that had a ton of NFL talent.
Good luck Saturday.

 

[stpaulcat]

It's nice to have a conversation with the opposing fans without it becoming a debate/argument. I'm a little more of a pessimist than most Hawkeye fans. It's tough for me to forget that Iowa was tied with Iowa State with 4:30 to go in the game or that we needed a 57 yard FG to avoid OT with Pitt, or that we needed a self induced turnover from Wisconsin at their one yard line to keep a lead.

I think Fitz is going to load the box this week. I was shocked to see Illinois mainly sit in two deep look against a team running the ball down their throats. Fitz won't let this happen. He'll make our QB and sub-average WR core beat them.

Offensively from the Cats, I'm expecting a trick play or two. And a short passing game that over the years has continually drove Iowa nuts. Not having Ott at DE is going to cause Iowa some issues. Iowa will probably need to bring 5 guys to get any pressure on your QB.

All in all, I'm expecting a final of something like Wildcats 23 Hawks 13.

You know, this is highly unusual, and also very welcome--that Iowa fans come on the board and want to actually discuss. Although when they just want to flame I don't credit our side with gentlemanly behavior either.

 

[codflyer]

Good summary codflyer, and I absolutely can understand your optimism regarding the Hawkeyes this weekend. As one of about nine Northwestern fans that live in the state of Iowa, I get to hear the trash talk quite often during game weeks, so I appreciate some good honest analysis from a Hawkeye fan.

What gives me some confidence is that I truly believe Iowa, while having a nice defense, is the fourth best defense NU has faced so far this year, with Michigan, Duke, and Stanford all having better defenses. Iowa and Stanford may be close, but there's no doubt in my mind that Michigan and Duke have better defenses (if you've seen Duke play this year, their defense is damn good, anchored by an All-American in Cash). And watching the game on Saturday, Thorson was by no means great, but he was far from the problem. I actually thought he played a respectable game considering his one INT was a bizarre play that bounced off his WR's hands first, there were several drops by the WR's, and Michigan had pretty solid pressure on him all day. His stats don't show it, but I thought he did his part on Saturday. Unfortunately, pretty much no one else did their part. I also believe that the running game will open back up again as I think this will be the first game where success in NU's passing game early will help open up the running game. It's a bold prediction, but I see the pieces falling into place for that to happen. I could be wrong, but I'm rolling with that.

On defense for NU, there is no sugarcoating that they were lost in the 1st quarter on Saturday due to some new looks from Michigan that they hadn't shown before. It caused for blown coverage on several plays, and Michigan took advantage. But once they got settled in, it really looked a lot more like the NU defense of the first five games as Michigan really didn't do a ton after the first 20 minutes or so. It wasn't NU's best game, and you can't just say "well, remove the first 20 minutes and...", but I saw enough of the defense on Saturday to still have a lot of confidence in them.

We'll see what happens on Saturday. I personally feel confident, which is not something I always feel (for the record, I have picked against NU in the college confidence pool I am in on two separate occasions this year, and one of those was not this past Saturday at Michigan, which was obviously a slight error). I just think this is a good NU team and I believe they are going to bounce back at home. My confidence is really more about NU than it is about Iowa.

Thanks for the reply. Don't get me wrong, I think NU is a very, very solid team, I just think that the matchup doesn't favor the wildcats. I just think that they are strong in areas that are going to sort of wash out in this game and Iowa has the slight edge elsewhere. If NU's offense was built more like it was in the recent past, with a more spread/aerial attack foundation, I think the matchup would be much more favorable for you.

I think that Iowa is going to key on the running game, no matter what Thorson does, so I wouldn't count on that opening up really at any point in the game, unless NU is able to start winning in the trenches and beating Iowa straight up. We did much the same against Wisconsin. We never really shifted our defense to try to take away the passing game, we just made sure that they were not going to run it, and dared their QB to beat us. He put up some yards, but he couldn't put points on the board and they turned it over repeatedly. I think that will be our mindset again. We are going to bet that Thorson cannot maintain enough consistency, avoid mistakes and turnovers, and hit enough big plays to beat us. We will play hard against the run and relatively loose against the pass all day long I think. That has been our MO all year and I don't see it changing Saturday. That is what we have the personnel for (our secondary is pretty good, but I don't think we have the LB's across the board to shut down a determined passing attack even if we cheated that way). We just keep things in front of us, and make hard, solid tackles after the short completions we are surrendering. But, that is how NU could beat us. If Thorson can be patient, take what we are giving, and not allow himself to be baited into getting greedy (where we excel at turning opponents over), then he could potentially flip the script on us, just keep drives alive, wear our defense down, and start scoring some points later in the game. But, that is much easier said than done, especially for a young player like him.

Iowa is somewhat diminished right now due to injuries though, especially on offense. I think frayed is a good way to put it. I think NU is catching them at about the best time that they could, right before our bye week, in that regard. Coming out of the bye week we should have several key players back and several others closer to 100%, like our original starting RB, our best WR (hopefully), our best TE, a healthy O line, and Beathard more rested (he is essentially healthy, but pretty banged up and sore right now). I can't imagine Canzeri can tote it another 40+ times again either...he is going to need a break.

Should be a good one. Enjoy the banter.

 

[hdhntr1]

There was just too much warm and fuzzy in this thread for me, and the flashback on Saturday to the last couple years was too much. We are not as good as we were beginning to think we are, either that or Michigan has made an unbelievable turn around. These games do happen to very good teams though, so let's hope.... The wheels haven't come off, but we do have a flat tire.

Some people had us in the playoffs which was a little ridiculous. No we are not that good. But we have shown we are a good team. Hate losing Harris. That start killed us. But this is another game.

 

[ubercat]

You know, this is highly unusual, and also very welcome--that Iowa fans come on the board and want to actually discuss. Although when they just want to flame I don't credit our side with gentlemanly behavior either.

I think this new detente, and the Cubs' march into the playoffs, could be signs of The Coming Apocalypse.

 

[Hawkman34]

Hi there Cats!!!

I love the insight for this weeks game that I am reading over here. I want so bad for the Hawks to win this game, but I just don't think we can pull this one out. The Cats ran into a perfect storm at Michigan, and although I think Michigan is one of the hottest team in the country right now, I still think if you play them 10 times, you would have a great chance against them. You Defense is WAY better than it showed on Saturday, and the scares me for the Hawks. I am praying that we don't lose more players for the stretch run, because I know , like you guys, injuries are mounting.

Here's to a GREAT game!

 

[Seattle_Cat]

Sorry, but you lost me at "Illinois....impressed me". Illinois was absolutely manhandled by North Carolina, the only team they have faced that can put a lot of points on the board (Nebraska doesn't count, they were a dumpster fire on offense that game due to injuries and bad play calling).

Illinois is progressing as the season goes forward. They lost their coach a week before the season started!! Cubit is doing a great job.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Illinois is progressing as the season goes forward. They lost their coach a week before the season started!! Cubit is doing a great job.

Besides that NC game they have looked much better this season. Weren't that far off from winning in Iowa.

 

[GlideCat]

I have enjoyed Iowa fans using the "Fitz is obsessed with beating Iowa" excuse as the reason why NU has played Iowa even over the past many years. Does Fitz dislike Iowa more than other teams in the conference? Yeah, I think that is fair to say if I'm being honest.

I read the following a long time ago:

When Gary Barnett came to NU, he established Iowa as the team that he wanted NU to be like. Solid, well-coached, consistently in bowl games, occasional challenger for the conference. Barnett circled the Iowa game as it was the measuring stick as to where he was in that development. His coaching staff circled it and the players circled it.

My assumptions from this:

Fitz came from the team where that goal was realized and probably developed that circling of the Iowa game during his time as a player.

So, if any of what I have written above is true (it just came form a magazine article so I have no confirmation), then Fitz' "obsession" with Iowa should be something by which Iowa fans are flattered.

 

[stpaulcat]

I read the following a long time ago:

When Gary Barnett came to NU, he established Iowa as the team that he wanted NU to be like. Solid, well-coached, consistently in bowl games, occasional challenger for the conference. Barnett circled the Iowa game as it was the measuring stick as to where he was in that development. His coaching staff circled it and the players circled it.

My assumptions from this:

Fitz came from the team where that goal was realized and probably developed that circling of the Iowa game during his time as a player.

So, if any of what I have written above is true (it just came form a magazine article so I have no confirmation), then Fitz' "obsession" with Iowa should be something by which Iowa fans are flattered.

All of which means we should have beaten Michigan and we better damn well beat Iowa.

 

[mikewebb68]

Besides that NC game they have looked much better this season. Weren't that far off from winning in Iowa.

They looked terrible vs. Middle Tennessee State as well, a bad FBS team with zero FBS wins. The other noncon games were against an FCS team and one of the worst teams in FBS, so difficult to determine anything from those.

Really the only game they looked decent was against Iowa; The game vs. Nebraska was a Sun Belt-quality game by both teams; an absolute snoozefest that was only livened up at the end by Nebby's coach handing the game to Illinois.

And Illnois only fared OK against Iowa due to basically opening up 1,000% percent of their playbook in an effort to win knowing they were severely out-talented (we probably SHOULD have done this vs. Michigan-- what did we have to lose?) Some of their trick plays like their fleaflicker (yes, they ran more than one!) worked out well. Others, like a reverse-turned-halfback option pass from Geronimo Alison, well, not so much....

In sum, Illinois is about the same this year, perhaps a bit worse due to key injuries. But Cubit has done a tremendous job under one of the worst possible circumstances.

 

[Gladeskat]

They have definitely improved, particularly on defense. They're 4-2 now with good chances to win against Purdue, Minnesota, and NU (if we're flat) over the rest of the schedule. If Dudek returns this year, they will be that much better. The only good news is that they are not recruiting very well this year on paper. It will be interesting to see if recruiting picks up now that Beckman is gone. Beckman recruiting stories are great - Big bear hugs and "Yoohoo chocolate drink has more protein than muscle milk." Yeah, right.

 

[NURoseBowl]

So how will we pick you out of the crowd at Ryan Field? Will you be wearing a Herky/Willie hybrid hat?

Which, as we know, is always a good look . . .

 

[cidsports]

Iowa vs. Northwestern is the definition of a close, drag out un-rivalry, since there is no trophy given, like many true rivalries. Since 1999, the average score is Iowa 28, Northwestern 22 at Ryan Field.

This is not a trap game.

The Wildcats generally win close games, except 2012 was a 28-17 game, like Iowa's last win in 2007.

Iowa generally needs points or the outcome is often Northwestern's for the taking.

QB - advantage Iowa
RB - each has a solid starter
WR/TE - no advantage at this stage
OL - Iowa was stronger, but questions due to injury.

Both teams have good defensive units. Special teams may favor Iowa.

Is this game a repeat of Iowa-ISU, Iowa-Pitt or Iowa-Wisconsin or does it become Northwestern -Minnesota?

We shall see.

Pat Fitzgerald has been 5-7 in back to back years, but is 5-1 now. Is this 2012, 2013 or something in between?

Interesting game and 1st and 2nd down will be keys for each team. It will likely be a physical game. Who wins the 1 on 1 battles and 50/50 balls?

Michigan did last week. Iowa did last year. Common denominator was Jack Rudock. Healthy, C.J. Beathard has been better and more of a playmaker than Rudock.

peace

 

[cidsports]

Iowa may be fourth best defense that Northwestern faced, but what about Iowa's offense and special teams?

We shall see. Stanford's offense was anemic and left a lot of plays on the field.

 

[Just Gary]

Iowa may be fourth best defense that Northwestern faced, but what about Iowa's offense and special teams?

We shall see. Stanford's offense was anemic and left a lot of plays on the field.

Maybe it was just the NU defense made Stanford's offense look anemic. You can't compare last year's scores and squads to this year's. NU underestimated Michigan and got smashed in the mouth by a team that was well prepared, fired up, and at home. Fitz won't make that mistake this week and the players will come out ready to play.

Iowa is a good team and probably the favorite to win the west, even if they lose this game. The schedule favors Iowa the rest of the way (Minnesota is probably the toughest opponent left) and the victory at Wisconsin was huge. Neither Wisconsin or Nebraska will be gimme games for NU and we already know that playing Illinois is always dangerous for us (fans on here won't admit it but the record the last few years is not impressive). With Maryland and Indiana as the cross-division teams, Iowa has a leg up.

 

[mikewebb68]

They have definitely improved, particularly on defense. They're 4-2 now with good chances to win against Purdue, Minnesota, and NU (if we're flat) over the rest of the schedule. If Dudek returns this year, they will be that much better. The only good news is that they are not recruiting very well this year on paper. It will be interesting to see if recruiting picks up now that Beckman is gone. Beckman recruiting stories are great - Big bear hugs and "Yoohoo chocolate drink has more protein than muscle milk." Yeah, right.

Agreed about Dudek, but he is not the only guy hurt, Starting RB and the third WR (only Alison is healthy from the 3 projected starters) makes them worse than last year, imo.

 

[cidsports]

Offensive and defensive line play are examples of why Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern have improved. Two Illinois WRs rank in Big Ten Top 10.

Iowa and Northwestern are both missing top WR. Iowa is missing top returning TE in conference this season.

Stanford's offense didn’t execute, go back and watch opportunities. Northwestern won. But, like Northwestern at Michigan, Stanford didn't bring it and left opportunities out there.

peace